PubMed Health⌕ Search

SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Epidemics--determinants”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

6 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2005

Effects of host density on furunculosis epidemics determined by the simple SIR model.

To determine the transmission dynamics of furunculosis, Chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha held at various densities were challenged with a single infectious fish. Data from the in vivo experiments were compared to predicted values from a susceptible--infected--removed (SIR) model. Seven different densities were tested including 9.13, 4.56, 0.72, 0.36, 0.19, 0.06 and 0.03 fish/L and each produced different transmission coefficients (beta) of 0.01, 0.019, 0.0051, 0.0076, 0.0001, 0.0005 and 0.00, respectively. Furunculosis related mortality rates decreased as density of the host decreased. Mortality rates at the highest fish densities where disease specific mortality (DSM) was observed were 0.42, 0.44, 0.18 and 0.02 infected animals per day. The natural mortality rate also followed a similar pattern with 0.005, 0.005, 0.001, 0.005, 0.0001, 0.000 and 0.000 surviving animals per day. The results indicated that the transmission coefficient and the DSM of furunculosis was dependent on host density. It is possible that fish behavioral changes at the lower densities caused the reproductive rate of disease to be persistent even at very low densities. In summary, the simple SIR model suggested that low mortality does not always mean low prevalence of furunculosis in a given population. This is the first study evaluating host density as a risk factor for fish diseases using experimental furunculosis data.

Animal Husbandry↗
PubMed2000

[Temporal and geographical variation in epidemics determined from the results of an infectious disease surveillance system in Japan description of epidemic patterns by data-based criteria for epidemic periods].

OBJECTIVE: After developing criteria for epidemic periods for 16 infectious diseases, we investigated temporal (annual and monthly) and geographical (regional) variation in epidemics. METHODS: Data from an infectious disease surveillance system for the years 1993 to 1997 were used for the analysis. The weekly number of patients per monitoring station was calculated from the data and used in developing criteria for an epidemic period. Based on these latter, we calculated the average number of epidemics occurring at each public health center in a year, an average length of the epidemic period, and the average number of patients per monitoring station reported during an epidemic period. These figures were used to explore temporal (annual, monthly) and geographical (regional) variation. RESULTS: With most diseases, the average number of epidemics occurring at a public health center was 0.3-0.5 per year and the average length of an epidemic period was 6-12 weeks. The average number of patients per monitoring station reported during an epidemic period differed according to the diseases. These indices showed that there were few annual differences, but great monthly differences, in most diseases. The average number of epidemics occurring in a public health center showed regional differences with some diseases. CONCLUSION: Temporal and geographical variation in epidemics for 16 infectious diseases was established by developing criteria for an epidemic period.

Data Collection↗
PubMed1980

Influenza: viral determinants of the pathogenicity and epidemicity of an invariant disease of variable occurrence.

If influenza is a riddle wrapped in mystery inside an enigma, then the viral genes are the riddle, the variable surface antigens for which they code are the mystery, and the course and cause of epidemics the ultimate enigma. Paradoxically, the disease itself has remained a stable and recognizable entity through the years, whether initiated by A/PR/8/34 or A/USSR/90/77 variant viruses. Thus, evolution appears to have preserved the disease but not the virus. Among the questions before us are: (1) Have we become obsessed with differences instead of similarities, and have we overemphasized minor differences in viral (antigenic) structure as epidemic determinants? (2) To what extent do viral antigens reflect selection by population antibody? (3) To what extent is antigenic change the pleiotropic consequence of protein structural alteration for purposes other than escape from specific neutralization? These and other questions are discussed in relating viral form to function.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

[The role of bacterial diarrhea in developing countries].

Bacterial diarrheas in developing countries remain a major public health problem. Cholera is endemo-endemic since 1970. Clusters of Shigella infections are commonly observed during the rainy season. Other enteropathogen cause nosocomial infections and foodborne diseases. The HIV epidemic determined the emergence of a new trend of enteric diseases caused by opportunistic bacteria such as Salmonella Enteritidis, S. Typhimurium. The risk factors associated with these infections remains almost unknown. Treatment failure is related to an incre of high level resistance strains.

AIDS-Related Opportunistic Infections↗
PubMed1997

Preliminary observations on factors responsible for long persistence and continued outbreaks of plague in Lushoto district, Tanzania.

Human plague has been an important public health problem in Tanzania for over a century. Recorded outbreaks of the disease have been reported from various parts of Tanzania, including Iringa, Kagera, Singida, Mbulu, Arusha and Kilimanjaro since 1886. Since 1980 however, only Lushoto, Singida and Karatu districts have experienced outbreaks of the disease. Of these areas, Lushoto has disproportionately high incidences of the disease and this has persisted for nearly 17 years. Efforts to curb the disease through conventional methods, including control of vectors and reservoirs, chemotherapy and chemoprophylaxis, enforcement of sanitation improvement as well as health education, have been applied every year, but plague cases and deaths continue to occur in the area to date. During the period April 1980 to December 1996, a total of 6599 cases with 580 (8.8%) deaths were recorded. Biological factors, such as the presence of suitable rodent reservoirs, efficient flea vectors and plague bacillus, could be partly responsible for the long persistence and recurrence of the disease. Since such factors are also common in other plague foci where the disease has never been persistently recurrent, and where indigenous people are culturally different from those in Lushoto, it is assumed that socio-cultural factors play an important role as determinants of the disease in the latter district. This paper reports preliminary observations on socio-cultural, biological and environmental factors which are thought to be, at least partly, responsible for the long persistence and repeated outbreaks of plague in the district. These include traditional beliefs on the cause and health seeking behaviour for treatment of plague, sleeping and food storage habits, large populations of rodents and fleas, and status of the immediate environment.

Adult↗