PubMed HealthSearch

SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Epidemiologic methods”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Genomic epidemiology of clade Ia monkeypox viruses circulating in the Central African Republic in 2022-24: a retrospective cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The spread of monkeypox virus (Orthopoxvirus monkeypox) clade Ib from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to neighbouring countries has raised global concerns, leading to WHO declaring mpox a public health emergency on Aug 14, 2024. We applied genomic epidemiology to investigate the causes of recurrent mpox outbreaks in the Central African Republic. We aimed to determine whether frequent zoonotic spillovers or increased human-to-human transmissions are driving mpox epidemiology. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cross-sectional study of monkeypox virus genomic sequences among PCR-confirmed mpox cases detected in the Central African Republic between Feb 17, 2022, and Sept 17, 2024. We used hybridisation capture coupled to high throughput sequencing to analyse 46 samples from mpox outbreaks that occurred in eight of the 20 prefectures (14 of 35 health districts). Near-complete genomes were used for phylogenomic analyses. FINDINGS: Between Jan 10, 2022, and Sept 15, 2024, 89 mpox cases were confirmed, including 53 cases in the first 9 months of 2024. We generated 41 near-complete genomes from this period, including 33 from 2024. All new and already published monkeypox virus genomes from the Central African Republic belonged to clade Ia. These genomes spanned the phylogenetic diversity of clade Ia viruses, and most likely represented several dozen independent transmission events to humans. The monkeypox virus phylogenetic diversity was geographically structured within the country. Plausibly linked cases often showed indistinguishable genomes. Conversely, we detected identical genomes in cases that epidemiological information would suggest were independent outbreaks. Finally, we found that three distinct viruses caused cases in the capital city of Bangui in July, 2024, with all three detected on the same day (July 24, 2024). We did not detect substantial enrichment of APOBEC3 editing, suggesting limited human-to-human transmission. INTERPRETATION: The data indicate that mpox epidemiology in the Central African Republic is primarily driven by short-lived outbreaks resulting from many independent zoonotic spillover events, particularly in rural areas. Although evidence remains limited, in Bangui additional factors such as movement of people and importation of bushmeat from other regions might be introducing the virus into urban settings. Similar spillover patterns have been observed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The poorly understood nature of monkeypox virus reservoirs in both countries is a regional concern, as frequent spillovers increase the risk of outbreaks leading to sustained human transmission. Beyond strengthening surveillance and developing countermeasures, it is important to better understand the reservoirs and focus on reducing transmission opportunities to prevent further outbreaks. FUNDING: Pasteur Institute of Bangui, Africa CDC, AFROSCREEN, WHO, the Helmholtz Institute for One Health, and the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Humans

Multidimensional prophage profiling of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae in Thailand: a nationwide, multicentre, genomic study.

BACKGROUND: Prophages influence bacterial fitness, resistance, and evolution, yet their epidemiology remains poorly understood in carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE). In this nationwide study in Thailand, we aimed to describe prophage repertoires in clinical CRE isolates and to explore their potential relevance for molecular epidemiology. METHODS: We performed a nationwide, retrospective, genomic analysis of all CRE clinical isolates collected through our previous national surveillance study involving 11 hospitals in 11 provinces in Thailand between March 25, 2012, and Jul 21, 2017. Whole-genome sequencing data from 747 CRE isolates were analysed. Intact prophages were identified using PHAge Search Tool Enhanced Release (PHASTER) and clustered by nucleotide sequence similarity. Prophage profiles were compared across multilocus sequence types, carbapenemase genotypes, specimens, geography, and patient demographics (age and sex). FINDINGS: Of the included 747 CRE isolates, 170 (23%) were Escherichia coli and 577 (77%) were Klebsiella pneumoniae. 220 (29%) of 747 strains had been isolated from female patients and 264 (35%) from male patients; metadata on patient sex were missing for 263 (35%) isolates. The median patient age was 63 years (IQR 50-72). 71 (10%) of isolates were from blood, 283 (38%) from sputum, 284 (38%) from urine, and 109 (15%) from other specimens. 374 distinct prophage clusters were identified, with significantly more prophages per genome in K pneumoniae (mean 3&#xb7;01 [SD 1&#xb7;55]) than in E coli (1&#xb7;64 [1&#xb7;46]; p<0&#xb7;0001). Prophage repertoires largely mirrored bacterial multilocus sequence types. However, even within the highly clonal K pneumoniae sequence type 16 lineage, discrete prophage variation was identified, with common profiles observed in geographically dispersed patients. Respiratory K pneumoniae frequently carried a mosaic prophage with environmental signatures and a type VI secretion system, whereas blood-derived E coli harboured a prophage with immune-modulating genes. Distinct prophage clusters were observed across clinical specimens, age groups, carbapenemase genotype, and geographical region. Strains coharbouring blaNDM-1 plus blaOXA-232 (114 [15%] of 747) had the highest prophage loads. INTERPRETATION: The prophage content was shaped by the bacterial lineage, ecological niche, and temporal dynamics, providing an additional layer of epidemiological resolution beyond conventional genome typing. Integrating prophage profiling into molecular surveillance frameworks could help to identify transmission events, improve infectious source attribution, and enhance infection control strategies. FUNDING: Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development.

Female

Rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XDR lineage derived from recombination between XBB and BA.2.86 subvariants circulating in Brazil in late 2023.

Recombination plays a crucial role in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. The Omicron XBB* recombinant lineages are a noteworthy example, as they have been the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant worldwide in the first half of 2023. Since November 2023, a new recombinant lineage between Omicron subvariants XBB and BA.2.86, designated XDR, has been detected mainly in Brazil. In this study, we reconstructed the spatiotemporal dynamics and estimated the absolute and relative transmissibility of the XDR lineage. The XDR lineage displayed a recombination breakpoint in the ORF1a-coding region, and the most closely related sequences to the 5' and 3' ends of the recombinant correspond to JD.1.1 and JN.1.1 lineages, respectively. The first XDR sequences were detected in November 2023 in the Northeastern Brazilian region, and their prevalence rapidly surged from <1% to 25% by February 2024. The Bayesian phylogeographic analysis supports that the XDR lineage likely emerged in the Northeastern Brazilian region around late October 2023 and rapidly disseminated within and outside Brazilian borders from mid-November onward. The median effective reproductive number of the XDR lineage in Brazil during the initial expansion phase was estimated to be around 1.5, and the average relative instantaneous reproduction numbers of XDR and JN* lineages were estimated to be 1.37 and 1.29 higher than that of co-circulating XBB* lineages. In summary, these findings support that the recombinant lineage XDR arose in the Northeastern Brazilian region in October 2023, shortly after the first detection of JN.1 sequences in the country. In Brazil, the XDR lineage exhibited a higher transmissibility level than its parental XBB.* lineages and is spreading at a rate similar to or slightly faster than the JN.1* lineages.IMPORTANCEThis study highlights the emergence and rapid dissemination of the recombinant SARS-CoV-2 XDR lineage, derived from the Omicron lineages JD.1.1 and JN.1.1. The XDR lineage exhibited equivalent transmissibility to its JN.1* parental lineages and quickly spread across Brazil in late 2023. The findings underscore the critical role of real-time genomic surveillance in detecting novel variants with higher transmission potential. By utilizing phylogenetic and epidemiological methods, this research provides important insights into the molecular dynamics of XDR, which could inform public health responses and vaccine composition updates. The study's significance lies in its ability to document the impact of recombination on viral evolution, offering valuable information to the field of virology and pandemic preparedness.

Brazil

Development of a novel SNV-based genotyping method for Prototheca bovis.

We developed a novel single nucleotide variant (SNV)-based genotyping method for Prototheca bovis based on mitochondrial and plastid genome polymorphisms. Sequencing of five PCR amplicons targeting six informative SNVs discriminated field isolates with a Simpson's D value of 0.927, providing a simple and robust epidemiological typing method.

Journal Article

Vacuoles, E1 enzyme, X-linked, autoinflammatory, somatic (VEXAS) syndrome: A comprehensive review of cases across different ethnicities.

OBJECTIVES: Vacuoles, E1 enzyme, X-linked, autoinflammatory, somatic (VEXAS) is an autoinflammatory disease associated with somatic mutations in the UBA1 gene. Although the disease has been described in many different countries, no studies have investigated the origin of patients to determine if the disease is universal across ancestries. The aim of this study is to investigate the distribution of VEXAS syndrome across continents and ethnicities. METHODS: A literature review of all reported cases of VEXAS syndrome was conducted between October 2020 and April 2025 using the term 'VEXAS' with the all-field filter in the Pubmed and Web of Science databases. Epidemiological and clinical data were collected for included patients. If the country of origin was not described, it was assumed to be the same as the country of clinical evaluation. A subgroup analysis was performed for patients whose country of origin or ethnicity was documented by the authors. RESULTS: 674 cases of VEXAS syndrome were collected, with patients described from four continents and 32 countries. Considering the subgroup of patients with documented country of origin, 451 patients were from four continents and 19 countries. Of these, ethnicity was recorded for 372 patients with the presence of Caucasian, Central or East Asian, South Asian, Middle Eastern, Central American and South American ethnicities. CONCLUSION: The results support a broad global distribution of the disease and highlight the importance of investigating the disease regardless of the patient's origin and ethnicity in cases of compatible symptoms.

Humans

Assessment of differentially culturable tubercle bacteria assays for the detection of tuberculosis infection in asymptomatic household contacts and the implications for intra-household transmission: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Conventional culture methods for tuberculosis diagnosis miss differentially culturable tubercle bacteria (DCTB), which grow only in liquid assays supplemented with growth-enhancing factors. This limitation, combined with inadequate contact tracing and screening, often fails to identify asymptomatic individuals, with live bacilli detectable by enhanced culture methods. This shortfall results in undiagnosed reservoirs of bacteria, potentially fuelling ongoing transmission. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether DCTB assays provide greater sensitivity by detecting more Mycobacterium tuberculosis infections than conventional culture and whether this enhanced detection improves the resolution of intrahousehold transmission mapping. In addition, we sought to evaluate whether DCTB populations can progress to conventional culture positivity, thereby highlighting their clinical and epidemiological relevance. METHODS: In this prospective observational longitudinal cohort study, drug-susceptible or rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis index participants aged 12 years or older, were recruited from primary healthcare clinics from two South African districts. Inclusion criteria were informed consent, Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra-positive results, tuberculosis symptoms (>2 weeks), provision of baseline samples, at least one consenting household contact, and documented HIV status. Household contacts of the index patients and control households were also recruited. Sputum specimens were collected at baseline and 2, 4, 8, 12, and 16 months from the index participants and household contacts. Samples were analysed by conventional mycobacterial growth indicator tube (MGIT) culture, and colony-forming unit assays to identify viable bacteria. Enhanced culture to detect DCTB involved serial dilution of sputum in liquid culture, supplemented with M tuberculosis culture filtrate as a source of growth stimulatory factors. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of cultured isolates was performed to trace household transmission. FINDINGS: Between June 1, 2020, and Feb 6, 2024, 293 index participants (183 [62%] male), 701 household contacts (453 [65%] female), and 122 control participants (67 [55%] female) were enrolled. At baseline, 249 (85%) of 293 index participants and 110 (16%) of 701 household contact sputum samples were positive for M tuberculosis by MGIT conventional culture. For baseline MGIT-negative specimens, DCTB assays detected M tuberculosis in an additional 21 (7%) of 293 index participants and 26 (4%) of 701 household contacts. Over 16 months of follow-up, DCTB assays identified 61 (8&#xb7;7%) of 701 additional tuberculosis-positive household contacts not detected by conventional culture. WGS-guided transmission mapping using conventional culture identified transmission in 16 (15%) of 104 households, whereas DCTB assays detected an additional 19 (18%) of 104 transmission events. No evidence of intrahousehold transmission was found in the remaining 69 (66%) of 104 tuberculosis-positive households. Over the 16-month follow-up period, conventional culture identified 233 positive household contacts, of which 195 (84%) were asymptomatic. DCTB assays detected an additional 94 cases of M tuberculosis positivity in household contacts, of which 79 (84%) were asymptomatic. In control households, tuberculosis prevalence at baseline was two (2%) of 122, with an additional three (3%) of 122 identified during follow-up. INTERPRETATION: DCTB assays provide substantial value by detecting asymptomatic individuals missed by conventional culture, revealing a potentially important reservoir of subclinical infection, which could sustain transmission. In addition, DCTB detection uncovers transmission linkages missed by conventional culture, providing a more comprehensive understanding of M tuberculosis transmission dynamics and highlighting the need to incorporate enhanced culture methods into diagnostic and surveillance strategies, to strengthen early case identification and tuberculosis control efforts. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Humans

Phylogeographic epidemiology of Dabie bandavirus in East Asia: divergent transmission networks and genotype&#x2011;linked clinical severity.

BACKGROUND: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), caused by Dabie bandavirus (SFTSV), exhibits geographically decoupled incidence and fatality patterns across East Asia. We aimed to elucidate the distinct ecological drivers and phylogeographic dynamics underlying this inland-coastal epidemiological divergence. METHODS: Integrating 1820 high-quality global genomes of SFTSV with well-characterized clinical cohorts (936 patients) and nationwide surveillance data (27,457 cases) from China, we constructed a comprehensive analytical framework. Ecological modeling, Bayesian phylogeography, and genotype-phenotype association analyses were employed to trace the evolutionary trajectories and clinical implications of the virus. RESULTS: A pronounced "inland-high-incidence vs. coastal-high-fatality" pattern of SFTS was identified. The incidence of SFTS exhibited divergent sensitivities to meteorological factors; inland transmission was sensitive to thermal fluctuations, whereas coastal dynamics were constrained by a sunshine threshold (>&#x2009;200&#xa0;h/month). In contrast, spatial divergence in clinical severity correlated with the distribution of regional viral genetic structures. Inland regions mainly co-circulated genotypes A, C, and D, while coastal regions were dominated by genotype B. Zhejiang province was identified as a genetic hub with significantly higher recombination frequencies than inland regions (11.0% vs. 3.5%, P < 0.001). Bayesian phylogeographic inference indicated frequent lineage exchange of Zhejiang province in China with the Republic of Korea and Japan. Clinically, genotypes B and D were associated with elevated mortality in coastal and inland regions, respectively, suggesting that the severe coastal phenotype is shaped by its genotype B-dominated structure. Additionally, the RdRp-N828S mutation emerged as a robust molecular correlate of fatal outcomes, warranting further functional validation. CONCLUSIONS: Divergent meteorological factors and plausible maritime transmission networks may underlie the geographically decoupled epidemiology of SFTS. These findings highlight that risk assessment must extend beyond incidence alone and provide a phylogeographically informed framework for targeted surveillance and genotype-specific interventions in high-risk hotspots.

Humans

A standardized, genome-guided MLST scheme for Avibacterium paragallinarum: enhanced epidemiological typing and validation against existing methods.

Avibacterium paragallinarum, the causative agent of infectious coryza (IC), is an important respiratory pathogen of chickens with growing prevalence in commercial and backyard flocks. Current strain-typing methods, including classical serotyping and molecular approaches, such as ERIC-PCR or single-locus HPG2 typing, lack sufficient discriminatory power to investigate the epidemiology or population structure. To address this limitation, we developed a genome-guided multilocus sequence typing (MLST) scheme as a robust and portable tool for A. paragallinarum strain differentiation. Housekeeping genes were identified from 42 whole-genome sequences (WGS); 18 candidates were evaluated; and six were selected for the final MLST scheme. We used the scheme to differentiate 75 A. paragallinarum samples and compared its performance against classical HPG2-based typing, ad hoc core genome MLST (cgMLST), and the MLST scheme published by M. Guo, Y. Jin, H. Wang, X. Zhang, and Y. Wu (Vet Sci 11:208, 2024, https://doi.org/10.3390/vetsci11050208). The new MLST showed higher discriminatory power than HPG2 and outperformed Guo's scheme with higher discriminatory power, particularly for characterizing the samples originating from North and South America. It also showed strong concordance with cgMLST clustering while being more practical for routine use. Overall, the six-locus MLST identified 31 sequence types across 75 samples, revealing epidemiologically meaningful clustering at regional and national scales and capturing temporal persistence of lineages. All allele definitions and sequence types have been deposited in PubMLST, ensuring standardized nomenclature and global accessibility. This scheme represents a reproducible, cost-effective, and globally applicable tool that enhances outbreak investigation, surveillance, and population studies of A. paragallinarum, bridging the gap between low-resolution traditional methods and resource-intensive whole-genome sequencing.IMPORTANCEInfectious coryza (IC) caused by Avibacterium paragallinarum is a major respiratory disease of poultry that causes acute infection, reducing egg production and growth and resulting in significant economic losses in poultry production worldwide. Controlling IC depends on understanding how different strains spread and persist, yet current methods to differentiate strains are either unreliable or too costly for routine use. In this study, we developed a standardized multilocus sequence typing system that provides a simple, accurate, and globally accessible way to identify and compare strains of A. paragallinarum. This scheme identified important links between outbreaks at local and regional levels and showed that certain strains persisted over time. By making the scheme available through PubMLST, laboratories worldwide can use a common tool to track and investigate the pathogen. This accessible tool improves disease surveillance, supports outbreak investigations, and helps poultry producers and veterinarians respond more effectively to IC.

Multilocus Sequence Typing

Epidemiological and phylogenetic analysis of anthrax in Kazakhstan in 2024.

BACKGROUND: Anthrax remains an important zoonotic disease in Kazakhstan due to the persistence of environmental reservoirs and long-standing endemic foci. Despite ongoing surveillance, the epidemiological characteristics and genetic diversity of circulating Bacillus anthracis strains in the country remain incompletely understood. METHODS: A retrospective epidemiological and phylogenetic investigation of anthrax outbreaks reported in Kazakhstan during 2024 was conducted. Epidemiological data were collected for all laboratory-confirmed human cases and associated outbreak foci. Confirmation of infection was performed by PCR, and B. anthracis isolates were obtained from clinical, environmental and animal-associated samples. Whole-genome sequencing and core-genome single nucleotide polymorphism (cgSNP) analysis were used to characterize the genetic relationships among isolates and to determine their phylogenetic placement. RESULTS: Nine anthrax outbreaks were identified across four regions of Kazakhstan (Almaty, Zhambyl, Atyrau, and West Kazakhstan), resulting in 20 confirmed human cases. All patients were male, with the highest proportion occurring among individuals aged 36-55&#xa0;years (45%). The mean patient age was 43.9&#xa0;years (range: 16-64&#xa0;years). Most infections were associated with slaughtering infected livestock (65%), followed by handling contaminated meat (15%). PCR confirmed infection in all 20 human cases. Culture yielded 17 human-derived B. anthracis isolates from 14 patients and 17 environmental/animal-derived isolates, resulting in 34 isolates in total. Of these, 22 representative isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the circulation of two major lineages. Isolates from Atyrau and West Kazakhstan clustered within the Trans-Eurasian (TEA/STI) lineage. Atyrau isolates formed a tight cluster differing by only 21-32 cgSNPs, consistent with a shared epidemiolocal source, whereas the West Kazakhstan isolate was highly divergent. Zhambyl and Almaty region belonged to the A.Br.Ames lineage but diverged into two distinct sublineages. Zhambyl region isolates demonstrated minimal divergence from the global reference genome Ames Ancestor, differing by only 16-31 SNPs. Almaty region isolates formed an endemic subclone, separated from the reference group by approximately 114 SNPs. Comparison with the Ames Ancestor and Sterne reference strains demonstrated substantial genetic divergence. CONCLUSION: Anthrax outbreaks in Kazakhstan during 2024 were primarily associated with livestock exposure and occurred within established endemic regions. Whole-genome sequencing revealed the coexistence of distinct TEA and Ames lineages, including evidence of persistent local transmission and long-term evolutionary stability of endemic B. anthracis populations. These findings enhance understanding of anthrax epidemiology in Central Asia and support the integration of genomic surveillance into national outbreak investigation programs.

Anthrax

Effect of repeated mass drug administration on the transmission of yaws: a retrospective genomic epidemiology study.

BACKGROUND: Yaws, a neglected tropical disease caused by Treponema pallidum subspecies pertenue (T p pertenue), has evaded eradication, in part due to a high proportion of asymptomatic cases. Repeated mass drug administration (MDA), whereby an entire population is repeatedly treated irrespective of disease, could provide a solution. Here, we aimed to investigate the effect of MDA on the genomic epidemiology of T p pertenue. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective genomic epidemiology study on samples collected during a cluster-randomised trial of mass administration of azithromycin for yaws eradication in the Namatanai District of Papua New Guinea. Participants were in 38 wards (administrative units encompassing several villages) in three local-level government areas (LLGs). The experimental group received an initial round of MDA followed by two further rounds 6 months and 12 months after the first round. The control group received one round of MDA followed by two rounds of treatment targeting clinical cases and contacts only, on the same schedule as the MDA in the experimental group. A follow-up survey on both groups was done 18 months after the first MDA round. Swab samples were collected at each round from ulcerative and nodular skin lesions, and blood was collected by finger-prick for serological testing at 18 months. Metadata on ulcer size (cm) and duration (days) were recorded at each round, and treponemal and non-treponemal antibodies were recorded at 18 months. Samples from swabs positive for T p pertenue underwent library preparation and whole-genome sequencing. We examined the phylogenetic relationships between genomes, linking them with geospatial and patient metadata to understand the impact of MDA on T p pertenue diversity and transmission. FINDINGS: Swabs collected from 297 individuals with active yaws from April 30, 2018, to Nov 2, 2019, yielded 222 good-quality Tp pertenue genomes. We identified 20 sublineages of T p pertenue in the control group and 21 in the experimental group at the beginning of the study. At the end of the study, there were 13 sublineages in the control group and three in the experimental group, of which two persisted in both groups. Three sublineages not detected at baseline were observed in the control group after commencing MDA. The two sublineages that persisted in both groups had non-synonymous mutations in penicillin-binding proteins. One of these sublineages evolved macrolide resistance in three individuals and was associated with lowered treponemal antibody (p=0&#xb7;0036) and longer ulcer duration (p=0&#xb7;015). Despite the study taking place within a small island, sublineages were geographically clustered, with pairs of samples from the same ward (odds ratio 7&#xb7;1, 95% CI 5&#xb7;7-8&#xb7;8; p<0&#xb7;0001) or neighbouring wards (4&#xb7;3, 3&#xb7;3-5&#xb7;4; p<0&#xb7;0001) more likely to share the same sublineages compared with pairs from different LLGs. Additionally, older individuals were more likely to share sublineages than were younger individuals (1&#xb7;5, 1&#xb7;2-1&#xb7;9; p<0&#xb7;0001). INTERPRETATION: Repeated MDA was successful in reducing and maintaining the genetic diversity of T p pertenue at a low level but was associated with the development of macrolide resistance. Yaws re-emergence after MDA was attributed to multiple sublineages, of which the majority were detected in the population before MDA. Participants within the same ward were more likely to share sublineages than those that were more widely geographically separated, suggesting that re-emergence was driven by local transmission. These findings could inform future yaws elimination strategies. FUNDING: European Research Council, EU, Provincial Deputation of Barcelona, Barber&#xe0; Solid&#xe0;ria Foundation, Wellcome, and Fundaci&#xf3; "la Caixa".

Adolescent

Emergence of carbapenemase-producing Escherichia coli in acute care hospitals in 32 European countries (the CCRE survey): a prospective, multicentre, cross-sectional, epidemiological, microbiological, and genomic surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: The emergence of carbapenem resistance in Escherichia coli is of major concern due to the high propensity of spread of this species and scarce treatment options. Herein, we examined the occurrence and spread of carbapenem-resistant E coli based on the carbapenem-resistant and/or colistin-resistant Enterobacterales (CCRE) survey performed across European countries in 2019. METHODS: We analysed epidemiological, microbiological, and whole-genome sequencing data of 548 E coli isolates from individual patients from 156 hospitals in 32 European countries over 6 months in 2019. These hospitals collected the first ten successive isolates of carbapenem-resistant or carbapenem-susceptible increased exposure (carbapenem-R/I) Klebsiella pneumoniae species complex or E coli, and carbapenem-susceptible (carbapenem-S) comparator isolates of the same species. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed for 19 antimicrobial agents. Whole-genome sequencing was performed centrally using Illumina technology. Isolates from the CCRE survey were compared with those from the European Survey of Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae (EuSCAPE) study. FINDINGS: Of the 548 E coli isolates, 211 (38&#xb7;5%) were carbapenem-resistant or susceptible, increased exposure (carbapenem-R/I), and 337 (61&#xb7;5%) were carbapenem-susceptible (carbapenem-S). Five sequence types (STs) accounted for 96 (45&#xb7;5%) of 211 carbapenem-R/I isolates: ST131 (27), ST410 (20), ST38 (19), ST167 (16), and ST648 (14). Carbapenemase genes were identified in 182 (86&#xb7;3%) carbapenem-R/I isolates, a pronounced increase from the 2013-14 EuSCAPE study (36 of 99, 36&#xb7;4%). The most common genes were blaNDM-5 (62 of 182, 34&#xb7;1%) and blaOXA-48 (40 of 182, 22&#xb7;0%). blaNDM-5 carriage increased substantially compared with that in EuSCAPE (two of 99, 2&#xb7;02%). Phylogenetic analysis showed substantial clonal spread of globally disseminated blaNDM-5-harbouring lineages, with numerous introductions into Europe but minimal onward transmission. INTERPRETATION: High-risk STs of E coli carrying carbapenemase genes are rapidly spreading globally, although our results indicate that, in 2019, most cases in Europe were sporadic. We urge vigilant monitoring, including genomic surveillance, and strengthening of control efforts, to reduce mortality and morbidity associated with the impending rise in carbapenem-R/I E coli cases. FUNDING: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control and the Centre for Genomic Pathogen Surveillance.

Humans

Emerging terbinafine-resistant Trichophyton indotineae between 2018 and 2023: a multinational genomic epidemiology study.

BACKGROUND: Trichophyton species cause the greatest burden of dermatophytosis worldwide, with the Trichophyton mentagrophytes species complex being particularly associated with the emergence of new aggressive infections. One emerging species, Trichophyton indotineae is notable for its clinical resistance to terbinafine antifungal treatment and rapid global spread. In this study we aim to characterise the epidemiology of this emerging pathogen using genomics. METHODS: In this retrospective genomic epidemiology study, to better understand the epidemiology of this disease, we sourced isolates collected from patients with severe cases of dermatophytosis (identified either by internal transcribed spacer sequencing or phenotypic characterisation) in the UK, Ireland, France, Canada, and India for the period 2014-23, including the T indotineae type strain from Japan. We used whole-genome sequencing to confirm 90 isolates were T indotineae, and antifungal susceptibility testing to assess susceptibility to terbinafine. FINDINGS: 103 cases of severe dermatophytosis caused by Trichophyton species collected between 2018 and 2023 in the UK, France, Canada, Ireland, and India were included in this study. Susceptibility testing indicated that 63 (70%) of 90 T indotineae isolates were resistant to terbinafine (minimum inhibitory concentration [MIC] &#x2265;0&#xb7;5 mg/L). Pairwise genetic distances showed very high identity with only 147 (range 1-414) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) separating isolates that were nested within a monophyletic phylogeny, supporting a single evolutionary origin of T indotineae. Genome-wide analyses identified multiple non-synonymous SNPs in SQLE (ERG1), the squalene epoxidase target of terbinafine, that were associated with terbinafine in vitro resistance of 0&#xb7;5 mg/L or higher. However, six isolates exhibited high MIC values without SQLE mutations, suggesting the presence of alternative resistance mechanisms. INTERPRETATION: That no clear geographical clustering of isolates was observed confirms the rapid transcontinental spread of T indotineae from its likely centre of diversity in Asia. Our findings highlight the importance of better genomic surveillance to understand and manage this severe and rapidly emerging terbinafine-resistant dermatophyte. FUNDING: None.

Terbinafine

Genomic characteristics and tracing analysis of an acute gastroenteritis outbreak associated with rotavirus C in a boarding high school.

BACKGROUND: Rotaviruses are major pathogens of childhood acute gastroenteritis, dominated by rotavirus A (RVA). Outbreaks caused by human rotavirus C (RVC) are rarely reported, and relevant genomic data remain scarce. This genomic investigation of an RVC outbreak improves our understanding of viral diversity and transmission dynamics. METHODS: We performed epidemiological surveys, nucleic acid testing and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) on specimens from a 2025 RVC-associated gastroenteritis outbreak at a Chinese boarding high school. Sequence alignment, phylogenetic and molecular tracing analyses were conducted to explore RVC evolution via point mutation, segment reassortment and genomic recombination. RESULTS: This typical point-source campus outbreak was linked to an indoor student gathering matching the incubation period of RVC. Thirteen RVC FX strains were recovered from 11 rectal swabs and two vomitus samples. Their viral protein (VP) 4 and VP7 sequences shared high homology with Russian reference strains, carrying distinct amino acid variations. No segment reassortment or recombination was detected in VP4/VP7 genes. CONCLUSIONS: Dense, closed campus settings facilitate RVC clustered transmission. Limitations included absent screening of asymptomatic canteen staff. Rapid nucleic acid testing enabled timely pathogen identification for outbreak control. Greater attention should be paid to the public health risk of RVC. These whole-genome sequencing data enrich resources for studying RVC evolution and vaccine development.

Acute gastroenteritis outbreak

Advanced age is associated with worsened outcomes and a unique genomic response in severely injured patients with hemorrhagic shock.

INTRODUCTION: We wished to characterize the relationship of advanced age to clinical outcomes and to transcriptomic responses after severe blunt traumatic injury with hemorrhagic shock. METHODS: We performed epidemiological, cytokine, and transcriptomic analyses on a prospective, multi-center cohort of 1,928 severely injured patients. RESULTS: We found that there was no difference in injury severity between the aged (age &#x2265;55, n&#x2009;=&#x2009;533) and young (age <55, n&#x2009;=&#x2009;1395) cohorts. However, aged patients had more comorbidities. Advanced age was associated with more severe organ failure, infectious complications, ventilator days, and intensive care unit length of stay, as well as, an increased likelihood of being discharged to skilled nursing or long-term care facilities. Additionally, advanced age was an independent predictor of a complicated recovery and 28-day mortality. Acutely after trauma, blood neutrophil genome-wide expression analysis revealed an attenuated transcriptomic response as compared to the young; this attenuated response was supported by the patients' plasma cytokine and chemokine concentrations. Later, these patients demonstrated gene expression changes consistent with simultaneous, persistent pro-inflammatory and immunosuppressive states. CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that advanced age is one of the strongest non-injury related risk factors for poor outcomes after severe trauma with hemorrhagic shock and is associated with an altered and unique peripheral leukocyte genomic response. As the general population's age increases, it will be important to individualize prediction models and therapeutic targets to this high risk cohort.

Adult

Global diversity and evolution of Salmonella enterica serovar Panama: a genomic epidemiology study.

BACKGROUND: Non-typhoidal Salmonella is a globally important bacterial pathogen, typically associated with foodborne gastrointestinal infection. Some non-typhoidal Salmonella serovars can also colonise typically sterile sites in people to cause invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella disease. Salmonella enterica serovar Panama is responsible for a substantial number of cases of human bloodstream infection, but despite its global dissemination, numerous outbreaks, and a reported association with invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella disease, S enterica serovar Panama (S Panama) is understudied. We aimed to describe the genomic epidemiology and evolutionary history of S Panama to provide a vital baseline of understanding for this globally important serovar. METHODS: In this genomic epidemiology study, we analysed S Panama genomes derived from historical collections, national surveillance datasets, and publicly available epidemiological and whole-genome sequencing data which span the years 1931-2019. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylodynamic approaches were used to investigate population structure and evolutionary history and to infer geotemporal dissemination. A combination of different bioinformatic approaches with short-read and long-read data were used to characterise geographical and clade-specific trends in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and genetic markers for invasiveness. FINDINGS: We analysed 836 S Panama genomes, of which 559 (67%) were sequenced as part of this study. The collection represents all inhabited continents and includes isolates collected between 1931 and 2019. We identified the presence of four geographically linked S Panama clades (C1 [ie, the Latin America and the Caribbean clade; n=338], C2 [ie, the European clade; n=124], C3 [ie, the Martinique clade; n=131], and C4 [ie, the Asia and Oceania clade; n=104]) and regional trends in AMR profiles. Most isolates (715 [86%] of 836) were pan-susceptible to antibiotics and belonged to clades circulating in Latin America and the Caribbean (64%, n=458). Most antibiotic-resistant isolates in our collection (113 [93%] of 121) fell within clades C4 (ie, the Asia and Oceania clade) and C2 (ie, the European clade), the latter of which had the highest invasiveness index values based on the conservation of 196 extraintestinal predictor genes. INTERPRETATION: This first large-scale phylogenetic analysis of S Panama has revealed important information about the population structure, AMR, global ecology, and genetic markers of invasiveness of the identified genomic subtypes. Our findings provide an important baseline for understanding S Panama infection. The presence of multidrug-resistant clades with elevated invasiveness index values should be monitored through ongoing surveillance, as such clades could pose an increased public health risk. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation Global Challenges Research Fund and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, John Lennon Memorial Scholarship, Institut Pasteur, Sant&#xe9; publique France, Fondation Le Roch-Les Mousquetaires, Investissement d'Avenir Programme, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Humans

Comparison of phylogenetic metrics of transmission between symptomatic and asymptomatic tuberculosis in individuals who were incarcerated in Brazil in 2008-24: a retrospective genomic epidemiology study.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis control efforts have traditionally targeted symptomatic individuals; however, the role of asymptomatic cases in sustaining transmission is increasingly recognised. We aimed to quantify the contribution of asymptomatic tuberculosis to recent transmission using genomic and epidemiological data from a high-transmission setting. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective genomic epidemiology study of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates collected in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, between Aug 25, 2008, and March 19, 2024. Available isolates underwent whole-genome sequencing. Demographic, clinical, incarceration history, and laboratory metadata were obtained from surveillance records. From Jan 1, 2017, to March 19, 2024, active case finding was conducted in the state's three largest prisons (all male-only facilities), during which sputum samples were collected from individuals irrespective of symptoms and tested using GeneXpert and culture. Comparisons of transmission between individuals with and without symptoms were restricted to individuals who were incarcerated and were identified through active case finding and for whom high-quality, M tuberculosis lineage 4 genomes were available. Metrics of recent transmission included phylogenetic clustering, time-scaled haplotype density (THD), local branching index (LBI), and transmission probabilities inferred using Bayesian Reconstruction and Evolutionary Analysis of Transmission Histories. FINDINGS: 4448 tuberculosis cases were notified in Mato Grosso do Sul in 2008-24. After excluding cases for which M tuberculosis isolates were not available or had low sequencing quality, who had contaminated cultures or mixed infection, or who were infected with non-lineage 4 M tuberculosis, we included 2362 lineage 4 M tuberculosis isolates with high-quality genome sequences. 1849 (78&#xb7;3%) of 2362 isolates were part of a genomic cluster. Among 2362 individuals with tuberculosis, 1137 (48&#xb7;1%) were incarcerated at diagnosis. Of these individuals, 505 were identified through active case finding in three male-only prisons. The median age was 30 years (IQR 25-37); 304 (60&#xb7;2%) had mixed ethnicity, 90 (17&#xb7;8%) were White, 56 (11&#xb7;1%) were Black, 13 (2&#xb7;6%) were Indigenous, and six (1&#xb7;2%) were Asian. 277 (54&#xb7;9%) had symptomatic disease and 228 (45&#xb7;1%) had asymptomatic tuberculosis. There were no significant differences between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals in phylogenetic clustering (213 [76&#xb7;9%] of 277 vs 195 [85&#xb7;5%] of 228; p=0&#xb7;37), THD (median 0&#xb7;39 [IQR 0&#xb7;06-0&#xb7;62] vs 0&#xb7;50 [0&#xb7;09-0&#xb7;65]; p=0&#xb7;12), or LBI (0&#xb7;00863 [0&#xb7;00810-0&#xb7;00988] vs 0&#xb7;00871 [0&#xb7;00829-0&#xb7;01020]; p=0&#xb7;088). Bayesian transmission trees showed no significant difference in the number of secondary infections inferred from symptomatic compared with asymptomatic individuals (p=0&#xb7;56). These findings were consistent across genomic clusters and robust to model assumptions. INTERPRETATION: We identified no differences in transmission between individuals who were symptomatic and those who were asymptomatic using multiple genomic measures. In this high-transmission setting, where systematic screening is implemented, our findings indicate that asymptomatic tuberculosis substantially contributes to tuberculosis transmission at the population level. These results suggest that symptom-based case detection alone is likely to be insufficient to interrupt transmission and highlight the importance of expanded screening strategies in high-risk populations. FUNDING: US National Institutes of Health and the Brazilian National Research Council (CNPq).

Humans

Resurgence and molecular epidemiology of dengue virus serotype 4 amid the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand.

INTRODUCTION: Dengue virus serotype 4 (DENV4) co-circulates with other serotypes in Thailand, a hyperendemic setting characterized by cyclical shifts in serotype predominance. During the COVID-19 pandemic, related public health interventions may have influenced dengue detection, transmission and epidemiological dynamics. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 413 dengue NS1/PCR-positive samples collected from 2018 to 2024 at a tertiary hospital in Bangkok were serotyped using a real-time PCR DENV1-4 subtyping assay. Forty-seven DENV4-positive samples (Ct < 32) underwent whole-genome sequencing using the ATOPlex DENV1-4 panel on the DNBSEQ-G99RS platform. Sequencing reads were processed using CLC Genomics Workbench, followed by phylogenetic, mutation, codon-based selection-pressure, and epitope-mapping analyses. RESULTS: DENV4 was identified in 18.2% (75/413) of samples, with 48% of cases requiring hospitalization. Detection increased markedly from 11.8% (22/186) during 2018-2021-23.3% (53/227) during 2022-2024 (proportion ratio, 1.97; p&#x202f;=&#x202f;0.0025). Among the 47 whole-genome-sequenced samples, most strains clustered within genotype I lineage 4I_A.3 and showed lineage-associated non-synonymous substitutions. NS1-A90T, NS2A-L113F, and NS3-F523Y appeared exclusively during 2022-2024 (p&#x202f;<&#x202f;0.001), whereas NS2A-L113F, NS5-G223S, and NS5-Q631R showed concordant positive-selection signals by FEL and MEME. CONCLUSIONS: This hospital-based study highlights an increase in DENV4 detection in Bangkok during 2022-2024 compared with 2018-2021, accompanied by predominance of lineage 4I_A.3 distinct from Malaysian and Indonesian strains reported during a similar period. These findings support integrated clinical and genomic surveillance to monitor DENV serotype and genotype dynamics and inform public health and vaccine strategies.

COVID-19 pandemic

Upsurge of pneumococcal clade I-&#x3b1;/CC180 serotype 3 and its association with a LytA mutation linked to immune evasion and disease potential: an observational and experimental study.

BACKGROUND: Streptococcus pneumoniae serotype 3 is one of the most prevalent serotypes that cause invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children and adults worldwide. Serotype 3 is associated with vaccine failures and breakthrough episodes in children vaccinated with 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13). In this study, we aimed to investigate potential genetic mechanisms that could explain the increase in cases of serotype 3 IPD in Spain. METHODS: We analysed the epidemiology of serotype 3 causing IPD in Spain, during 2009-23, in different age groups. Molecular characterisation was performed by whole-genome sequencing. Host-pathogen interactions of the different lineages were evaluated in terms of interaction with lung epithelial cells, biofilm formation, and capsular polysaccharide production, using opsonophagocytosis assays and mouse models of pneumonia. We used Poisson regression models to compare incidence and chi-square test calculations to identify clonal variations across vaccine periods. FINDINGS: Genomic analyses confirmed the predominance of clade I-&#x3b1;/clonal complex (CC) 180 in Spain, which shows increased resistance to complement-mediated immunity and phagocytosis and enhanced potential to infect lung cells. In all isolates of this lineage, we observed a single amino acid substitution (166His&#x2192;Tyr) in the crucial virulence factor LytA, which increased its enzymatic activity. On evaluating the phagocytosis of mutants without LytA of the two major lineages of serotype 3 (CC180 and CC260), LytA was responsible for the increased phagocytosis-evasion pattern of clade I-&#x3b1;/CC180. Evaluation of individuals with IPD caused by different serotype 3 genotypes confirmed a significant (p<0&#xb7;05) association between cardiac and respiratory comorbidities and infection by sequence type 180/CC180, which showed the importance of CC180 in IPD. INTERPRETATION: Our findings confirm that PCV13 reduced IPD cases caused by the susceptible CC260 lineage until CC260 was replaced by the clade I-&#x3b1;/CC180 lineage, which has a higher potential to cause IPD and divert the host immune system. A key mutation on LytA protein was associated with this hypervirulent phenotype. Emerging lineages jeopardise the effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines. FUNDING: Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovaci&#xf3;n, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, and PubMLST.

Animals