Developments in meteorology; centenary celebrations of the royal meteorological society.
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Humans↗
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The effect of the meteorological factors, meteorologic phenomena and weather types on the frequency of the appearance of the cerebrovascular insults in the Skopje area (SR Macedonia).
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Adult↗
[Studies on the meteorological correlations of suicides. I. The rate of suicides at different meteorological situations].
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Humans↗
Modeling the long-term frequency distribution of regional ozone concentrations using synthetic meteorology.
A new method is developed to generate the meteorological input fields required for use with photochemical airshed models that seek to predict the effect of pollutant emissions on the long-term frequency distribution of peak O3 concentrations. Instead of using meteorological fields derived from interpolation of direct weather observations, this method uses synthetically generated meteorological data. These synthetic meteorological fields are created by first constructing a semi-Markov process that generates a time series of large-scale synoptic weather conditions that statistically resemble the occurrence and persistence of synoptic weather patterns during specific months of the year. Then for each day within each synoptic weather category, local weather variables indicative of the meteorological potential for ozone formation are drawn from the approximated joint distribution of the summation of three pressure gradients across the airshed and the 850 mb temperature measured in the early morning. The synthetic initial conditions are combined with boundary values that are extracted from historical days that match the chosen synoptic class, temperature, and pressure gradient values as closely as possible for use in a prognostic mesoscale meteorological model. The prognostic mesoscale meteorological model generates the meteorological input fields necessary for the photochemical airshed model. The airshed model driven by synthetically generated meteorological data is executed for a 31 day period that statistically resembles weather during the month of August in Southern California using pollutant emissions data from the year 1987. The procedure produced a frequency of occurrence of peak 8 h average ozone concentrations that compared well both to that produced by the deterministic model as well as to the O3 concentrations observed over the August months of the years 1984-1990.
Air Pollutants↗
Influence of meteorological parameters on particulates and atmospheric pollutants at Taichung harbor sampling site.
Atmospheric aerosol particles and metallic concentrations, ionic species were monitored at the Experimental harbor of Taichung sampling site in this study. This work attempted to characterize metallic elements and ionic species associated with meteorological conditions variation on atmospheric particulate matter in TSP, PM2.5, PM2.5-10. The concentration distribution trend between TSP, PM2.5, PM2.5-10 particle concentration at the TH (Taichung harbor) sampling site were also displayed in this study. Besides, the meteorological conditions variation of metallic elements (Fe, Mg, Cr, Cu, Zn, Mn and Pb) and ions species (Cl(-), NO3 (-), SO4 (2-), NH4+, Mg2+, Ca2+ and Na+) concentrations attached with those particulate were also analyzed in this study. On non-parametric (Spearman) correlation analysis, the results indicated that the meteorological conditions have high correlation at largest particulate concentrations for TSP at TH sampling site in this study. In addition, the temperature and relative humidity of meteorological conditions that played a key role to affect particulate matter (PM) and have higher correlations then other meteorological conditions such as wind speed and atmospheric pressure. The parameter temperature and relative humidity also have high correlations with atmospheric pollutants compared with those of the other meteorological variables (wind speed, atmospheric pressure and prevalent wind direction). In addition, relative statistical equations between pollutants and meteorological variables were also characterized in this study.
Air Pollutants↗
Influence of meteorological parameters on Olea pollen concentrations in Córdoba (south-western Spain).
The influence of meteorological parameters on the dispersion of airborne pollen has been studied by several authors. Olive pollen is the major cause of allergy in southern Spain, where a large part of the arable surface area is given over to olive cultivation. Daily pollen forecasts provide important information both for pollen-allergy sufferers and for agronomists trying to achieve a better biological understanding of variations in airborne olive pollen levels. The main purpose of this paper is to study, by means of short-term statistical analysis, the effect of meteorological parameters on airborne olive pollen concentrations in the city of Cordoba (south-western Spain). Twenty-one-year (1982-2002) aerobiological and meteorological databases were used. Correlation and multiple regression analyses were used to study the relationships between olive pollen levels and several meteorological parameters. Statistical analysis was applied both to the whole pollen season and to the pre-peak period. Daily meteorological parameters, such as accumulated mean temperature, accumulated sunlight hours, and accumulated rainfall were used as independent variables in both statistical analyses. Accumulated meteorological variables were of the greatest value in most regression analysis equations, heat-related variables being the most important.
Forecasting↗
Alternaria spores in the atmosphere of Sydney, Australia, and relationships with meteorological factors.
Alternaria spores are found in the atmosphere in many locations around the world. They are significant from a human health perspective because they have been known to trigger allergic respiratory disease such as asthma and hay-fever. The presence of Alternaria spores in the atmosphere has been related to meteorological factors in past studies, but this has not been done previously in Sydney, Australia. This paper reports the results of such a study in Sydney. Alternaria spore concentration data for the period 19 August 1992 to 31 December 1995 were examined with meteorological data for the same period. The daily Alternaria spore concentration was compared to the meteorological data for the same day and for up to 3 days previously. The analysis methods were Spearman's rank correlation and multiple regression. Alternaria spores appear in the atmosphere of Sydney year-round, although they peak over spring, summer, and autumn. A number of meteorological factors, including mean, minimum, and maximum, temperature, dew point temperature, and air pressure, are significantly correlated with the atmospheric concentration of Alternaria spores. Some of these meteorological variables (temperature and dew point temperature) show significant correlations with a 1, 2, and 3 day lag, as well as for the same day. Regression models indicate that up to 31.1% of the variation in Alternaria spore concentration can be explained by meteorological factors. There is potential for the results of this study to be used by public health authorities in the prediction of Alternaria spore concentrations in Sydney.
Alternaria↗
Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease: a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate.
This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) on-board the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study and control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.
Africa↗
Meteorological parameters and the pattern of dermatology clinic attendance through a calendar year: a Sri Lankan experience.
BACKGROUND: Dermatology clinic attendance at a major hospital depends on many factors. We planned to determine the monthly variations of skin disease presentation and whether there was a correlation between the clinic attendance pattern of skin diseases and meteorological parameters. METHODS: The dermatology clinic attendance pattern was studied prospectively throughout a calendar year on a monthly basis at the dermatology clinic of the General Hospital, Matara, Sri Lanka. One thousand and twenty-three consecutive dermatology consultations in the private sector were also analyzed for comparison. Meteorological data were obtained from the Government Department of Meteorology. RESULTS: A total of 7419 first visit patients were seen at the general hospital. July and September recorded the highest number (718 each) and April recorded the lowest (426). The lowest relative humidity was in March (75%) and the highest in October (87%). The average maximum temperature ranged from 31.2 degrees C (April) to 29.1 degrees C (August, September). Average rainfall was between 622 mm (October) and 59 mm (June). Of the diseases considered to have a relationship to meteorological parameters, miliaria showed the biggest fluctuation (27 in May to zero in August). Photodermatitis was highest in August. The variation in asteatotic dermatitis patients was minimal. Dermatitis and fungal diseases comprised over 50% of clinic attendance throughout the year in both the state and private sectors. CONCLUSIONS: Although there were significant fluctuations in several disease categories in different months, a clear linear correlation between meteorological parameters and the disease presentation pattern could not be established. This could be due to the narrow range of variation in the meteorological parameters in the geographic area and the multiple variables involved in persons presenting to the dermatology clinic.
Dermatology↗
Meteorological factors and the onset of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage.
There have been numerous studies of the relationship between intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and meteorological conditions, but their conclusions have been inconsistent. Poor discrimination of ICH subtypes (primary or secondary) may have obscured the conclusions. Although most studies have analyzed seasonal or monthly variation, daily meteorological data are more appropriate for determining whether weather conditions play a role in triggering the onset of ICH. No studies have examined the activity and location of patients at the time of onset. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the occurrence of hypertensive ICH and daily meteorological parameters, in addition to examining the effect of the location and activity of the patient at the time of onset. We analyzed 138 patients with severe hypertensive ICH in a hospital-based population. We assessed whether daily meteorological parameters for the days on which ICH occurred differed from the days without ICH onset. Days on which hypertensive ICH occurred had a significantly lower minimum temperature and a decreased minimum temperature from that of the previous day ( P=0.042 [corrected] and 0.012 [corrected] respectively). There were no significant differences among subgroups of patients categorized according to their location and activity at the time of onset for any of the meteorological parameters.
Adult↗
The effects of air pollution and meteorological parameters on respiratory morbidity during the summer in São Paulo City.
Effects of meteorological variables and air pollutants on child respiratory morbidity are investigated during two consecutive summers (December-March 1992/1993 and 1993/1994) at the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo (MASP), Brazil. The MASP, with almost 17 million inhabitants, is considered the most populous region in South America. Due to warmer temperatures, increased rainfall and consequent low levels of air pollutants during the summer compared to winter, less attention has been paid to epidemiological studies during this season, especially in tropical urban areas such as São Paulo. In the present work, principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to medical end environmental data to identify patterns relating child morbidity, meteorological variables and air pollutants during the summer. The following pollutant concentrations are examined: SO2, inhalable particulate matter (PM10), and O3. The meteorological variables investigated are air temperature, water vapor (water vapor density) and solar radiation. Although low correlation between respiratory morbidity and environmental variables are, in general, observed for the entire dataset, the PCA method indicates that child morbidity is positively associated with O3 for the 1992/1993 summer. This pattern is identified in the third principal component (PC3), which explains about 19% of the total variance of all data in this summer. However, the 1993/1994 summer shows a more complex association between both groups, suggesting stronger ties with meteorological variables. Marked changes in synoptic conditions from the end of January to end of March of the 1993/1994 summer seem to have played an important role in modulating respiratory morbidity. A detailed examination of meteorological conditions in that period indicates that prefrontal (postfrontal), hot (cold) and dry (wet) days favored the observed decrease (increase) of respiratory morbidity.
Adolescent↗
Future directions of meteorology related to air-quality research.
Meteorology is one of the major factors contributing to air-pollution episodes. More accurate representation of meteorological fields has been possible in recent years through the use of remote sensing systems, high-speed computers and fine-mesh meteorological models. Over the next 5-20 years, better meteorological inputs for air quality studies will depend on making better use of a wealth of new remotely sensed observations in more advanced data assimilation systems. However, for fine mesh models to be successful, parameterizations used to represent physical processes must be redesigned to be more precise and better adapted for the scales at which they will be applied. Candidates for significant overhaul include schemes to represent turbulence, deep convection, shallow clouds, and land-surface processes. Improvements in the meteorological observing systems, data assimilation and modeling, coupled with advancements in air-chemistry modeling, will soon lead to operational forecasting of air quality in the US. Predictive capabilities can be expected to grow rapidly over the next decade. This will open the way for a number of valuable new services and strategies, including better warnings of unhealthy atmospheric conditions, event-dependent emissions restrictions, and now casting support for homeland security in the event of toxic releases into the atmosphere.
Air Movements↗
An eighteenth-century medical-meteorological society in the Netherlands: an investigation of early organization, instrumentation and quantification. Part 1.
In many areas of the eighteenth century was a starting point for the quantification of science. It was a period in which the mania for collecting led to the first attempts in systematization and classification. This penchant for collecting was not limited to natural history specimens or curiosities. Due in part to the development of mathematical and physical instruments, which became more widely available, scholars were confronted with the informative value of numbers. On the one hand, sequences of measurements appeared to be the key to the advancement of scientific knowledge, yet on the other hand the mathematical apparatus to deal with these data was still largely lacking. As a result of this the first meteorological networks organized in the eighteenth century all became bogged down in the large amount of information that was collected but could not be processed properly. This development is illustrated in a case study of an early Dutch meteorological society, the Natuur-en Geneeskundige Correspondentie Sociëteit (1779-1802). What were the factors that triggered this interest in the weather in the Netherlands? What were the goals and expectations of the contributors? What were their methodological strategies? Which instruments were used to measure which meteorological parameters? How was the stream of numbers generated by these measurements organized, collected and interpreted? An analysis of this process reveals that limits on the advancement of meteorology were not only imposed by eighteenth-century Dutch Republic and the lack of a proper theoretical insight were also crucial factors that eventually frustrated the breakthrough of meteorology as an academic science in the Netherlands. This breakthrough was only achieved in the second half of the nineteenth century.
History, 18th Century↗
An eighteenth-century medical-meteorological society in the Netherlands: an investigation of early organization, instrumentation and quantification. Part 2.
Scholarship has offered a range of judgements of the Correspondentie Sociëteit. In their recent study of the Netherlands at the start of the nineteenth century, Joost Kloek and Wijnand Mijnhardt characterize the efforts of the Correspondentie Sociëteit as a 'temporary milestone' in 'medical involvement with society'. According to them, this involvement arose after 1750, after university-trained medical doctors had reoriented themselves towards empiricism as a working method. They claim that this resulted in a preventative medical programme starting in about 1770; this process made a significant contribution to increased professional feeling and professional respect of the medical class. Far more negative in his assessment was Harry Snelders, who in 1981 conducted a general investigation of the Verhandelingen of the Correspondentie Sociëteit. He concluded that 'in the end the Sociëteit left us with little more than many particulars about the number of births and deaths in many places in the country, which illnesses people died from, some meteorological observations and an overview of the many contributors'. Also rather negative in his judgement was Frank Huisman, who in 1997 investigated the medical records of the Groningen section of the Correspondentie Sociëteit. Although Huisman underlined the importance of the Correspondentie Sociëteit in the process of the emancipation of the medical class, he also concluded that in the medical field scarcely any insight had been obtained into dominant illnesses. According to Huisman, the medical publications of the Correspondentie Sociëteit 'do not contain an expected level of abstraction, on the contrary they were very casuistic and contained many lists without any form of interpretation'. He judged that the medical doctors of the Correspondentie Sociëteit were no more than 'defective empiricists', because they never explicitly explained the transition from empirical material to theory. In Huisman's opinion, 'the correctness of the ideas adopted was indisputable, so that measurements could never have led to a modification, let alone a rejection, of the theory'. The question arises as to whether this is a useful way of making historical judgements. From a historical viewpoint, processes and efforts rather than results are most important, and innovations with respect to the institution's contemporary practices are to be assessed. If the Correspondentie Sociëteit is examined from such a perspective, then the result is rather positive, at least for the society's meteorological aspect. In the meteorological section of the Verhandelingen attention was mostly devoted to the set-up, methodology and recording of observations. This is hardly surprising, because in this field organized and systematic work was something very new in the Netherlands; members of the Correspondentie Sociëteit had to discover this effectively at first hand. There was no previous expertise on which to rely. The Correspondentie Sociëteit was the first in the Netherlands to genuinely organize scientific research. Moreover, contributors to the society performed much work. During a period of just over ten years the society published eleven volumes with almost five thousand pages of printed observations, about one-third of which was concerned with meteorology. Although these volumes were indeed partly descriptive, this does not mean that a higher level of abstraction was not the aim. For example, in his report about the weather during the years from 1779 to 1781, Van der Weyde sought to draw thoroughly analytical conclusions and even provided methodological arguments. According to Van der Weyde, the body of knowledge formed 'one large structure' which would only progress when many investigators worked on it together. Various types of natural knowledge needed to be distinguished. Meteorological knowledge could only be deduced from observation. Van der Weyde held that reliable natural knowledge was generated in three stages: first, collection and description of the phenomena; then the more difficult step of deriving inferences or patterns from these observations; the third step, the most difficult, to find an underlying theory or explanation. This step could only be taken after much preliminary work had been done. Van der Weyde considered Van Swinden's work on the magnetic needle to be an example of the first phase, that of describing phenomena. An example of the second phase, the derivation of inferences, was
History, 18th Century↗
Comparison of air pollutant concentrations between weekdays and weekends in Athens, Greece for various meteorological conditions.
The objective of the present study is to contribute to the understanding of the "ozone weekend effect" as it occurs in the Greater Area of Athens, Greece both in the summer and wintertime. Therefore, weekly cycles of CO, NO and O3 concentrations for the 18-year-period 1983-2000 are studied. Each day of the week is considered separately, while sites with different levels of primary pollutants are examined. The reduction of the meteorological influence in the O3 mechanisms is achieved by applying meteorological classifications. The analysis for the cold period reveals that CO and NO display decreasing concentrations from weekdays to weekends, whereas O3 shows increasing concentrations. During the warm period, although primary pollutants display decreased concentrations compared to the cold period, their weekly cycles remain the same. On the other hand, meteorological changes affect the weekly cycle of ozone peaks. During days with unfavourable meteorology to ozone production, weekend ozone concentrations are higher than weekday O3 concentrations. The reverse is observed during days with favourable meteorology to ozone production.
Air Pollutants↗
Determination of optimum time interval of meteorological data used with atmospheric dose modeling at SRS. Savannah River Site.
Measured tritium oxide concentrations in air were compared with calculated values using routine release Gaussian plume models for different time intervals of meteorological data. These comparisons determined an optimum time interval of meteorological data used with atmospheric dose models at the Savannah River Site (SRS). Meteorological data of varying time intervals (1 y to 10 y) were used for the comparison. Insignificant differences are seen in using a 1-y database as opposed to a 5-y database. Use of a 10-y database results in slightly higher or more conservative estimates. For meteorological databases of length 1 y to 5 y the mean ratio of predicted to measured tritium oxide concentrations is approximately 1.25 whereas for the 10-y database the ratio is closer to 1.35. Currently at the SRS a meteorological database of five year's duration is used for all dose models. This study suggests no substantially improved accuracy using shorter or longer time intervals.
Air Pollutants, Radioactive↗
Variations in airborne pollen antigenic particles caused by meteorologic factors.
High birch pollen antigenic activities in outdoor air samples were found in all particle sizes studied (> 7.2, 2.4-7.2, < 2.4 microns and molecular size class, with an ELISA modification). Sampling was done with a low-volume, size-selective bioaerosol sampler (SSBAS) simulating the human respiratory tract in both volume and fractionation. Airborne birch pollen counts for comparisons were obtained from a Burkard trap. No correlations were obtained between antigen concentrations in any particle size fraction and airborne pollen counts. The meteorologic factors studied differed clearly in their effect on antigenicity, depending on the size class studied. Likewise, the effect of meteorologic factors differed among the three study periods (period I, 4 weeks before the peak pollen season; period II, during the season; and period III, 4 weeks after the season). During the peak pollen period, temperature and relative humidity were the most important meteorologic factors. Before the season, large and very small particles predominated, medium-sized particles being totally absent. The largest size class studied (containing all intact pollen grains) clearly reacted to changes in meteorologic factors; for smaller size classes, these factors were found to be less important, a fact which may make the forecasting of antigen concentrations in the air on the basis of meteorologic data impossible.
Air Pollutants↗
Meteorological and oceanographic conditions in the northern Adriatic Sea during the period June 1999-July 2002: influence on the mucilage phenomenon.
Mucilage events (formation of very large organic aggregates and gelatinous surface layers) have been documented several times during the past two centuries in the northern Adriatic Sea (NA), while their frequency has significantly increased since 1988. In this work, meteorological and oceanographic conditions in the NA during the period June 1999-July 2002 are described and their relation to the outbreak and fate of the mucilage phenomenon was investigated. Salinity and temperature data were collected during approximately monthly cruises along three transects in the NA. Relevant meteorological situations (air temperature, rainfall, wind) were selected from large-scale ECMWF analyses and from the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS; Emilia Romagna Meteorological Service), while sea conditions (waves) were analysed by means of the Wave Adriatic Model (WAM). Data for air temperature, rainfall, and wind from several meteorological stations in the region were used. Average seasonal cycles of sea temperature and salinity simulated with statistical models, based on historical data collected in the NA since 1972, were used to determine thermal and haline anomalies. The monthly anomaly variability of maximum and minimum air temperatures, rainfall amount and number of rainy days did not appear to be relevant for the mucilage phenomenon outbreak. In contrast, both vertical and horizontal thermohaline gradients in the region were more developed during late spring and summer of 2000 and particularly of 2002, when the mucilage events were of greatest extent in space and time, compared to 2001 (short-lived event) and 1999 (no event). These more pronounced gradients were due to a combination of several unusual conditions: sharp heating of the sea surface in May-June, domination of eastwards transport of freshened waters formed in the Po Delta area, and intrusion of very high salinity intermediate waters originating in the eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, in winter of both 2000 and 2002 very dense and cold water formed and remained in the bottom layer until spring, contributing to increase the stratification degree of the water column. The duration of the mucilage events and their spatial distribution in the region depend strongly on meteorological changes. Recurrent anticyclonic conditions, characterized by low wind and calm sea, favour extended events in time (up 2 months in 2002). In contrast, highly perturbed weather, particularly due to strong "bora" wind, can be determined in sharp decay of the event (e.g. in July 2000).
Climate↗