PubMed Health⌕ Search

SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Moran effect”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2005

Generalizations of the Moran effect explaining spatial synchrony in population fluctuations.

The Moran effect for populations separated in space states that the autocorrelations in the population fluctuations equal the autocorrelation in environmental noise, assuming the same linear density regulation in all populations. Here we generalize the Moran effect to include also nonlinear density regulation with spatial heterogeneity in local population dynamics as well as in the effects of environmental covariates by deriving a simple expression for the correlation between the sizes of two populations, using diffusion approximation to the theta-logistic model. In general, spatial variation in parameters describing the dynamics reduces population synchrony. We also show that the contribution of a covariate to spatial synchrony depends strongly on spatial heterogeneity in the covariate or in its effect on local dynamics. These analyses show exactly how spatial environmental covariation can synchronize fluctuations of spatially segregated populations with no interchange of individuals even if the dynamics are nonlinear.

Demography↗
PubMed1999

Spatial Scale of Population Synchrony: Environmental Correlation versus Dispersal and Density Regulation.

A stochastic model is developed to analyze the equilibrium spatial pattern of population synchrony, the correlation of temporal fluctuations in population density between localities. The expected population dynamics and the distribution of individual dispersal distance are homogeneous in space. Environmental stochasticity is caused by temporal fluctuations in the intrinsic rate of increase and/or carrying capacity of local populations that are correlated in space (but not time), the environmental correlation decreasing with distance. We analyze a linearized model for small fluctuations. Employing the standard deviation of a function in a given direction as a measure of scale, the spatial scale of population synchrony, lρ, is related to the spatial scales of environmental correlation, le, and individual dispersal, l, by the simple general formula [Formula: see text], where m is the individual dispersal rate and γ is the strength of population density regulation (or rate of return to equilibrium, [Formula: see text] in the logistic model). Relative to environmental correlation (the Moran effect), the contribution of individual dispersal to the spatial scale of synchrony is magnified by the ratio of the individual dispersal rate to the strength of density regulation. Thus, even if the scale of individual dispersal is smaller than that of environmental correlation, dispersal can substantially increase the scale of population synchrony for weakly regulated populations.

Moran effect↗
PubMed2006

Climate effects on fire regimes and tree recruitment in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests.

Climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes. Here, I compare multi-century chronologies of regional fire years and tree recruitment from ponderosa pine forests in the Black Hills of southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming to reconstructions of precipitation and global circulation indices. Regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Fires were synchronous with La Niñas, cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and warm phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These quasi-periodic circulation features are associated with drought conditions over much of the western United States. The opposite pattern (El Niño, warm PDO, cool AMO) was associated with fewer fires than expected. Regional tree recruitment largely occurred during wet periods in precipitation reconstructions, with the most abundant recruitment coeval with an extended pluvial from the late 1700s to early 1800s. Widespread even-aged cohorts likely were not the result of large crown fires causing overstory mortality, but rather were caused by optimal climate conditions that contributed to synchronous regional recruitment and longer intervals between surface fires. Synchronous recruitment driven by climate is an example of the Moran effect. The presence of abundant fire-scarred trees in multi-aged stands supports a prevailing historical model for ponderosa pine forests in which recurrent surface fires affected heterogenous forest structure, although the Black Hills apparently had a greater range of fire behavior and resulting forest structure over multi-decadal time scales than ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest that burned more often.

Chronology as Topic↗
PubMed2004

Spatially structured population dynamics in feral oilseed rape.

We studied the population dynamics of feral oilseed rape (Brassica napus) for 10 years (1993-2002) in 3658 adjacent permanent 100 m quadrats in the verges of the M25 motorway around London, UK. The aim was to determine the relative importance of different factors affecting the observed temporal patterns of population dynamics and their spatial correlations. A wide range of population dynamics was observed (downward or upward trends, cycles, local extinctions and recolonizations), but overall the populations were not self-replacing (lambda < 1). Many quadrats remained unoccupied throughout the study period, but a few were occupied at high densities for all 10 years. Most quadrats showed transient oilseed rape populations, lasting 1-4 years. There were strong spatial patterns in mean population density, associated with soil conditions and the successional age of the plant community dominating the verge, and these large-scale spatial patterns were highly consistent from year to year. The importance of seed spilled from trucks in transit to the processing plant at Erith in Kent was confirmed: rape populations were significantly higher on the 'to Erith' verge than the 'from Erith' verge (overall mean 2.83-fold greater stem density). Quadrats in which lambda > 1 were much more frequent in the 'to Erith' verge, indicating that seed immigration can give the spurious impression of self-replacing population dynamics in time-series analysis. There was little evidence of a pervasive Moran effect, and climatic forcing did not produce widespread large-scale synchrony in population dynamics for the motorway as a whole; just 23% of quadrats had significant rank correlations with the mean time-series. There was, however, significant local spatial synchrony of population dynamics, apparently associated with soil disturbance and seed input. This study draws attention to the possibility that different processes may impose population synchrony at different scales. We hypothesize that synchrony in this system is driven by at least three processes: small-scale, local forcing caused by soil disturbance, intermediate-scale forcing as a result of seed input, and large-scale climatic forcing (e.g. winter rainfall) that affects the motorway as a whole.

Brassica napus↗
PubMed2005

Inferences about information flow and dispersal for spatially extended population systems using time-series data.

This work explores an information-theoretic approach to drawing inferences about coupling of spatially extended ecological populations based solely on time-series of abundances. The efficacy of the approach, time-delayed mutual information, was explored using a spatially extended predator-prey model system in which populations at different patches were coupled via diffusive movement. The approach identified the relative magnitude and direction of information flow resulting from animal movement between populations, the change in information flow as a function of distance separating populations, and the diffusive nature of the information flow. In addition, when the diffusive movement was eliminated from the model, mutual information correctly provided no evidence of information flow, even when population synchrony was generated by a common environmental driving function. Thus, for this model system, time-delayed mutual information was useful in discriminating between the Moran effect and animal movement as causes of population synchrony, as well as in characterizing dispersal in terms of direction, relative speed and diffusive nature.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed2025

SPC: a SPectral Component approach leveraging Identity-by-Descent graphs to address recent population structure in genomic analysis.

Population structure is a well-known confounder in statistical genetics, particularly in genome-wide association studies (GWAS), where it can lead to inflated test statistics and spurious associations. Traditional methods, such as principal components (PCs), commonly used to adjust for population structure, are limited in capturing fine-scale, non-linear patterns that arise from recent demographic events - patterns that are crucial for understanding rare variant effects. To address this challenge, we propose a novel method called SPectral Components (SPCs), which leverages identity-by-descent (IBD) graphs to capture and transform local, non-linear fine-scale population structure into continuous representations that can be seamlessly integrated into genetic analysis pipelines. Using both simulated datasets and empirical data from the UK Biobank (N &#x2248; 420,000), we demonstrate that SPCs outperform PCs in adjusting for fine-scale population structure. In simulations, SPCs explained over 90% of the fine-scale population structure with fewer components, while PCs captured less than 5%. In the UK Biobank, SPCs reduced the inflation of p-values in the GWAS of an environmental-driven phenotype by 12% compared to PCs, while maintaining a similar performance to PCs in height, a highly heritable phenotype. Additionally, SPCs improved rare variant association analyses, reducing genomic inflation (e.g., from 7.6 to 1.2 in one analysis), and provided more accurate heritability estimates. Spatial autocorrelation analysis further confirmed the ability of SPCs to account for environmental effects, reducing Moran's I for both environmental and heritable phenotypes more effectively than PCs. Overall, our findings demonstrate that SPCs provide a robust, scalable adjustment for recent population structure, offering a powerful alternative or complement to PCs in large-scale biobank studies.

GWAS↗
PubMed2000

Dispersal, Environmental Correlation, and Spatial Synchrony in Population Dynamics.

Many species exhibit widespread spatial synchrony in population fluctuations. This pattern is of great ecological interest and can be a source of concern when the species is rare or endangered. Both dispersal and spatial correlations in the environment have been implicated as possible causes of this pattern, but these two factors have rarely been studied in combination. We develop a spatially structured population model, simple enough to obtain analytic solutions for the population correlation, that incorporates both dispersal and environmental correlation. We ask whether these two synchronizing factors contribute additively to the total spatial population covariance. We find that there is always an interaction between these two factors and that this interaction is small only when one or both of the environmental correlation and the dispersal rate are small. The interaction is opposite in sign to the environmental correlation; so, in the normal case of positive environmental correlation across sites, the population synchrony will be lower than predicted by simply adding the effects of dispersal and environmental correlation. We also find that population synchrony declines as the strength of population regulation increases. These results indicate that dispersal and environmental correlation need to be considered in combination as explanations for observed patterns of population synchrony.

Moran effect↗
PubMed1988

The antibacterial effect of toothpastes on the salivary flora.

Both past and presently available toothpastes contain potential antimicrobial agents which could have a beneficial effect in the prevention of plaque and gingivitis. If these preparations were to be effective clinically, some effect on salivary bacteria would also be expected. This cross-over study measured salivary bacterial counts and the presence or absence of residual antibacterial activity in saliva following tooth brushing with 7 commercially available toothpastes, and moreover, compared their effect with that produced by a chlorhexidine gel. Generally, all toothpaste products produced a reduction in aerobic, anaerobic and streptococcal counts with a hexetidine containing toothpaste producing the largest and longest lasting reduction. In contrast, an enzyme containing toothpaste and an amine fluoride toothpaste, had little effect on bacterial counts. The chlorhexidine gel produced the largest reduction in salivary counts, which was evident for at least 5 h following brushing. Residual antibacterial activity in saliva was only evident immediately following brushing with the hexetidine toothpaste, but for the chlorhexidine gel, was present up to 90 min following brushing. The findings of this study have illustrated the limited antibacterial activity of presently available toothpastes on the salivary flora compared to chlorhexidine, and as such, would tend to question the relative benefit of toothpaste in preventing periodontal disease through an antimicrobial effect.

Adult↗
PubMed1992

The analysis of regional patterns in health data. II. The power to detect environmental effects.

Three measures of spatial clustering (Moran's I, Geary's c, and a rank adjacency statistic, D) were evaluated for their power to detect regional patterns in health data. The patterns represented various environmental effects: a latitude gradient; residence near a contaminated water supply; disease "hot spots"; relation to socioeconomic status and urbanization; and general spatial autocorrelation. While the methods had high power to detect certain patterns, they were also affected by factors such as the shape of the map, its regional structure, and the spatial distribution of explanatory variables. The power was sometimes low, even for strong geographic trends, particularly for D. Moran's I had the highest power most often. We conclude that use of these methods requires careful specification of the anticipated geographic pattern and awareness of idiosyncratic effects in the study of particular maps.

Bias↗
PubMed2005

Taurine and cholestasis associated to TPN. Experimental study in rabbit model.

Taurine seems to be essential in the newborn for bile acid (BA) tauroconjugation, and its deficiency has been implicated in total parenteral nutrition-associated cholestasis (TPN-AC). Our purpose was to study the relationship between taurine (Ta) and TPN-AC in rabbits, which have a similar biliary metabolism to that of humans. We used 40 young rabbits, fed for 10 days according to the following four groups: GA [10] given TPN, with amino acid solution (AA) but without taurine (Ta) or its AA-precursors (methionine, cysteine, and serine); GB [10] the same but only without taurine; GC [10] the same but with taurine and its precursors; and GD [10] the control group with oral nutrition and saline infusion. Complete blood and bile analytical data were obtained and analyzed, including plasma AA and BA. Liver samples were studied under optical and electron microscopy. Serum: In GC there was a 20% increase in the AA-precursors, but paradoxically it was greater in GA. Bile: In GC there was 30% more excretion of total and free BA compared with less than 20% in GA and GB. Regarding toxic BA, there was a 15% decline in GLC3S excretion, but more than 20% in LCA excretion, than in GA and GB. Moreover, in GC the glyco-/tauro-conjugate ratio was worse than in the other groups. Histomorphology: While in GA and GB liver steatosis was diffuse (microsteatohepatitis type), in GC there was macrosteatosis with mitochondria-surrounded lipid droplets. In GA and GB, the canaliculi appeared dilated, with abundant bile plugs and loss of microvilli. There are signs that taurine may protect against TPN-AC. The mechanism does not seem to be BA tauroconjugation, but probably taurine's antioxidant, membrane stabilization (with Ca2+ and HCO3-), and/or osmotic effects.

Amino Acids↗
PubMed1986

Two brain cholecystokinin receptors: implications for behavioral actions.

The distribution and relative specificity of cholecystokinin (CCK) receptors in the rat brain was mapped by in vitro autoradiography with [125I]CCK-33. We identified two distinct binding patterns, suggesting two CCK receptor types. The first is widespread and relatively non-specific. The second, localized to a few subcortical nuclei, has the specificity demonstrated for pancreatic CCK receptors. Localization of this receptor type to the area postrema provides a possible entry site into brain for circulating CCK that would distinguish between CCK and gastrin and could mediate some of CCK's behavioral effects.

Animals↗
PubMed1987

Transport of cholecystokinin (CCK) binding sites in subdiaphragmatic vagal branches.

In order to evaluate vagal cholecystokinin (CCK) binding sites as potential target sites for the satiety actions of CCK, their presence, axonal flow and pharmacological specificity in subdiaphragmatic vagal branches were examined by autoradiography utilizing 125I-Bolton Hunter CCK-33. Specific CCK binding and axonal transport were found in vagal trunks and all abdominal vagal branches. Binding was inhibited by unlabelled CCK-8, but not by desulfated CCK-8. The pharmacological specificity and transport of CCK binding sites to subdiaphragmatic branches indicate a potential role in mediating CCK's satiety effect.

Animals↗
PubMed1996

Increasing influenza immunization among high-risk patients: education or financial incentive?

PURPOSE: To determine whether an educational brochure or a lottery-type incentive increases influenza immunization rates. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In a prospective, single-blind factorial design randomized trial at an urban community health center, all high-risk patients (n = 797) seen in the preceding 18 months were randomly assigned to one of four groups: a control group; a group mailed a large print, illustrated educational brochure emphasizing factors important to patients in making a decision about influenza immunization; a group mailed a lottery-type incentive announcing that all patients receiving influenza immunization would be eligible for grocery gift certificates; and a group mailed both educational brochure and incentive. Immunization was free, available without an appointment, and recorded by a computerized tracking system. RESULTS: The group mailed the brochure was more likely to be immunized than control (odds ratio [OR] = 2.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.45 to 3.61), as was the group mailed the incentive (OR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.68), but there was no difference between the group mailed both interventions and the control group. The effectiveness of the brochure was more striking for individuals who had not accepted immunization in the prior year (OR = 4.21, 95% CI 2.48 to 7.14), suggesting a true educational effect rather than simply a reminder. CONCLUSION: In this community health center setting, an illustrated educational brochure increased influenza immunization among high-risk patients, a lottery-type incentive was much less effective, and both together was not effective.

Aged↗
PubMed2005

Assessment of outcome over a 10-year period of patients admitted to a multidisciplinary adult intensive care unit with haematological and solid tumours.

The risk factors for time to mortality, censored at 30 days, of patients admitted to an adult teaching hospital ICU with haematological and solid malignancies were assessed in a retrospective cohort study. Patients, demographics and daily ICU patient data, from admission to day 8, were identified from a prospective computerized database and casenote review in consecutive admissions to ICU with haematological and solid tumours over a 10-year period (1989-99). The cohort, 108 ICU admissions in 89 patients was of mean age (+/-SD) 55+/-14 years; 43% were female. Patient diagnoses were leukaemia (35%), lymphoma (38%) and solid tumours (27%). Median time from hospital to ICU admission was five days (range 0-67). On ICU admission, 50% had septic shock and first day APACHE II score was 28+/-9. Forty-six per cent of patients were ventilated. ICU and 30-day mortality were 39% and 54% respectively. Multivariate Cox model predictors (P<0.05), using only ICU admission day data were: Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), time to ICU admission (days) and mechanical ventilation. For daily data (admission through day 8), predictors were: cohort effect (2nd vs 1st five-year period); CCI; time to ICU admission (days); APACHE II score and mechanical ventilation. Outcomes were considered appropriate for severity of illness and demonstrated improvement over time. Ventilation was an independent outcome determinant. Controlling for other factors, mortality has improved over time (1st vs 2nd five year period). Analysis restricted to admission data alone may be insensitive to particular covariate effects.

APACHE↗