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[The mortality determinants in 93 cases operated on for aortic stenosis].

We report 93 cases of severe aortic stenosis. We discuss their clinical data, hemodynamic parameters, and surgical outcome. The surgical mortality and variables determining this event evaluated in groups: A (deaths) and B (survivors). Functional class (mean = 2.5 vs 2.0 p less than 0.05) was statistically as determinant for mortality as were also: transaortic gradient (group A mean = 110 +/- 37 mmHg vs group B mean = 82 +/- 31 p less than 0.005), and ejection fraction (group A mean = 55 +/- 13.7 vs group B mean = 64 +/- 14.8 p less than 0.005). Neither time of cardiopulmonary bypass nor aortic clamping were determinants for mortality. Our results are similar to those reported in other groups. Mortality rates, are determined basically by deterioration of left ventricular function, and by the severity of transaortic gradient.

Age Factors

Mortality determinants and prediction of outcome in high risk newborns.

The aim of this study was to determine independent patient-related predictors of mortality in high risk newborns admitted at our centre. The study population comprised 100 consecutive newborns each, from the premature unit (PU) and sick baby care unit (SBCU), respectively. Thirteen high risk factors (variables) for each of the two units, were entered into a multivariate regression analysis. Variables with independent predictive value for poor outcome (i.e., death) in PU were, weight less than 1 kg, hyaline membrane disease, neurologic problems, and intravenous therapy. High risk factors in SBCU included, blood gas abnormality, bleeding phenomena, recurrent convulsions, apnea, and congenital anomalies. Identification of these factors guided us in defining priority areas for improvement in our system of neonatal care. Also, based on these variables a simple predictive score for outcome was constructed. The prediction equation and the score were cross-validated by applying them to a 'test-set' of 100 newborns each for PU and SBCU. Results showed a comparable sensitivity, specificity and error rate.

Forecasting

What determines mortality risk in male former cigarette smokers?

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine what factors determine the mortality experience of male ex-cigarette smokers, those who no longer smoke at all and those who changed to pipe or cigar smoking. METHODS: A cohort study was undertaken with 18-year mortality data on 19,018 men. RESULTS: Ex-cigarette smokers had an intermediate mortality risk compared with never and current smokers. Ex-cigarette smokers who switched to pipe smoking had higher mortality than those who no longer smoked at all. The mortality rates for pipe and cigar smokers who were former cigarette smokers were higher than those for pipe or cigar smokers who had never smoked cigarettes. Ex-cigarette smokers who consumed more than 20 cigarettes per day for more than 20 years experienced increased mortality for both coronary heart disease and neoplasms, even after 30 years of cessation. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the notion that an elevated mortality risk may be seen for ex-cigarette smokers, even after they have given up smoking for many years. Ex-cigarette smokers who change to a pipe have a greater mortality risk than those who no longer smoke at all.

Adult

Use of the APACHE II scoring system to determine mortality of gynecologic oncology patients in the intensive care unit.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if an elevated score on the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scoring system is associated with mortality of acutely ill gynecologic oncology patients. METHODS: Gynecologic oncology patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit (ICU) were identified from the ICU data base. Their admission APACHE II score and type of gynecologic cancer were also extracted from the data base. Charts were reviewed to determine the disease status and reason for admission to the surgical ICU. Patient mortality was correlated with APACHE II scores. RESULTS: Forty-five gynecologic oncology patients were admitted to the surgical ICU from June 1988 to January 1992. They had a mean age of 62 years and various cancers: ovarian (24), cervical (16), and endometrial (five). The mean APACHE II score was 12 (range 2-26). Eight of 45 (18%) patients died. There was a significant correlation between APACHE II scores and mortality; patients with an APACHE II score of 20 or greater had a 78% risk of death compared to a 3% risk if the score was less than 20 (P < .001, chi 2 test). CONCLUSION: Elevated APACHE II scores are associated with mortality in acutely ill gynecologic oncology patients.

APACHE

Neonatal mortality determinants in Jamaica.

The Jamaican Perinatal Survey included among its objectives the quantification of the island's neonatal mortality rate, the identification of the causes of these deaths (Wigglesworth Classification), and the determination of characteristics of both mother and infant that are associated with increased mortality. A death questionnaire was completed on babies who were born between September 1986 and August 1987, and who died in the neonatal period throughout the island of Jamaica. The neonatal mortality rate was 17.9 per 1000 live births with early and late rates of 16.0 and 1.9 per 1000, respectively. The major contributors to neonatal demise were prematurity and intrapartum asphyxia (74 per cent). Twins had a seven-fold greater risk of dying than singletons. Babies born to mothers under 15 years had a four-fold greater risk of dying than those of mothers 25-29 years. The neonatal mortality rate for Jamaica is high, with room for improvement, particularly in the prevention of perinatal asphyxia.

Asphyxia Neonatorum

Use of an antigen detection assay to determine mortality of Dirofilaria immitis after thiacetarsamide therapy.

The use of an antigen detection enzyme immunoassay (EIA) to determine the post-treatment infection status of 16 dogs naturally infected with Dirofilaria immitis was investigated. Dogs were treated with thiacetarsamide at a dose rate of 12mg/4.5kg twice daily for 2 days, bled at regular intervals and necropsied 9 weeks later. The infection status of all dogs at necropsy was compared to the ratios of optical density (OD) values from the EIA using fresh plasma samples (day 60/day 0 = R60) and dogs were divided into 2 groups. Using the R60 ratios, those dogs with fewer than 2 live adult worms or immature worms at necropsy ("cleared" dogs) could be differentiated with 95% confidence from those dogs with more than 1 live adult worm ("non-cleared" dogs). Changes in the average OD values from the plasma of "cleared" dogs and "non-cleared" dogs were similar up to 46 days after treatment but diverged significantly thereafter. The efficacy of thiacetarsamide was 50% if all worms were considered and 75% if the presence of immature worms was ignored. The benefits of antigen detection assays for diagnosis and improved patient assessment and the use of an R60 ratio to assess the efficacy of adulticides such as thiacetarsamide are discussed in relation to their practical significance for clinicians.

Animals

The Lao People's Democratic Republic: maternal mortality and female mortality: determining causes of deaths.

A sample of 380 female deaths in the age group 15-49 years from 16 provinces of the Lao People's Democratic Republic were analyzed to determine the most likely cause of death. 127 deaths were classified as maternal, 28% occurred during pregnancy and the remaining 72% within six weeks of the termination of pregnancy. Almost three quarters of all maternal deaths were directly related to obstetrical complications during pregnancy or childbirth. Many of these deaths could probably have been avoided, if appropriate obstetric care had been available. The level of attention to problems related to maternity and childbirth needs to be raised at all responsible levels of the health service system. This must start at the health facility where attending nurses and midwives should be oriented towards pregnancy-related problems and early detection of high-risk women, with appropriate supervisory support. District and national administrations should also focus more on maternity services within their Primary Health Care programme.

Adolescent

Bochdalek hernias in infants: factors determining mortality.

From 1950 through 1974, 76 infants with Bochdalek hernias have been surgically repaired. Mortality has been confined to those admitted at under 30 hr of age, and the highest mortality has been among those infants admitted within the first 8 hr of life. A recent increase in mortality is explained by the arrival of a new group of infants who arrived intubated, had large diaphragmatic defects, required postoperative ventilatory assistance, and had hypoplastic lungs at autopsy. Six infants might have benefited from an early intervention to hasten closure of their patent ductus arteriosus. Since we cannot be positive that intubation of these infants prior to arrival will not have a deleterious effect, we urge great discretion in choosing which infants to intubate.

Age Factors

Critical factors in determining mortality from abdominal aortic trauma.

Aortic injuries remain highly lethal. Major factors contributing to death in these patients appear to be free peritoneal hemorrhage and associated abdominal vascular trauma. These conditions often manifest as profound shock upon hospital presentation and portend a grim prognosis. Potential means to improve survival include: 1, vigorous resuscitation and prompt operative intervention in patients with penetrating abdominal trauma presenting in a state of shock; 2, careful search and control of associated vascular injuries prior to definitive aortic repair, and 3, constant vigilance to coagulation function, core temperature and acid-base status.

Abdomen

The effect of late-onset ventilator-associated pneumonia in determining patient mortality.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the development of late-onset ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is associated with an increased risk of hospital mortality. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: ICUs of two university-affiliated teaching hospitals. PATIENTS: Three hundred fourteen patients admitted to an ICU who required mechanical ventilation for greater than 5 days. INTERVENTIONS: Prospective patient surveillance and data collection. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome measures were the development of late-onset VAP (ie, occurring > 96 h after intubation) and hospital mortality. RESULTS: Late-onset VAP was observed in 87 patients (27.7%). Thirty-four (39.1%) patients with late-onset VAP died during hospitalization compared with 85 patients (37.4%) without late-onset VAP (relative risk, 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76 to 1.43). Twenty patients (6.4%) developed late-onset VAP due to a "high-risk" pathogen (ie, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter sp, Xanthomonas maltophilia) with an associated mortality rate of 65%. Stepwise logistic regression analysis identified five variables as independent risk factors for hospital mortality (p < 0.05): an organ system failure index of 3 or greater (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 3.4; 95% CI, 2.0 to 5.8; p < 0.001), having a nonsurgical diagnosis (AOR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3 to 3.6; p = 0.002), a premorbid lifestyle score of 2 or greater (AOR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.9; p = 0.015), acquiring late-onset VAP due to a "high-risk" pathogen (AOR, 3.4; 95% CI, 1.2 to 10.0; p = 0.025), and having received antacids or histamine type-2 receptor antagonists (AOR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0 to 2.9; p = 0.034). Additionally, we found the occurrence of late-onset VAP due to high-risk pathogens to be the most important predictor of hospital mortality among patients developing VAP (AOR, 5.4; 95% CI, 2.8 to 10.3; p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: Nosocomial pneumonia due to certain high-risk microorganisms is an independent risk factor for hospital mortality among patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation. We suggest that future investigations of late-onset VAP stratify patient outcomes according to the distribution of high-risk pathogens when reporting their results.

APACHE

Proximate determinants of child mortality in Liberia.

The study looks at the effects of maternal sociodemographic characteristics and the quality of the environment on child survival through two intervening variables, breast-feeding and prenatal care. A linear structural equation modelling approach was used to examine infant and child survival based on a weighted sample of 5180 Liberian children aged 0-5 years. The findings confirm previous studies, but also reveal complex relationships of the role of education, maternal age and breast-feeding in enhancing child survival.

Breast Feeding

Reoperations for valve surgery: perioperative mortality and determinants of risk for 1,000 patients, 1958-1984.

One thousand consecutive cardiac reoperations for valve surgery in 897 patients were reviewed to determine in-hospital mortality and indicators of risk. Subgroups based on the number of previous cardiac procedures and the valve or valves replaced or repaired at reoperation (aortic valve, mitral valve, tricuspid valve, or multiple valves and mortality [deaths/number of procedures (% mortality)]) for those subgroups are as follows: (Table: see text) Predictors of increased risk for a first aortic valve reoperation were advanced age (p = .0002), endocarditis (p = .0018), female sex (p = .014), impaired left ventricular function (p = .039), and number of coronary vessels obstructed by 70% or more (p = .055). For a first mitral valve reoperation, the predictors were advanced age (p less than .0001), preoperative shock or cardiac arrest (p = .01), previous aortic or tricuspid valve operations (p = .02), type of mitral valve procedure (risk for repair of periprosthetic leak was greater than mitral valve replacement which was greater than mitral valve-conserving operation [p = .05]), and impaired left ventricular function (p = .059). For a first multiple valve reoperation, the predictors were diabetes (p = .04) and ascites (p = .02), whereas patients undergoing mitral valve replacement and tricuspid valve operations were at decreased risk (p = .01). Comparison of second reoperations with first reoperations indicates risk increases for multiple operations (p = .01) but not for aortic or mitral valve procedures. Rereplacement of a prosthesis (p = .007), coronary bypass grafting at reoperation (p = .006), and advanced age (p = .06) increased the risk for second reoperations. Age is the most consistent predictor of risk for patients undergoing valve reoperations.

Aortic Valve

Mortality and causes of death in schizophrenic patients in Denmark.

A cohort consisting of 6178 people that were psychiatric inpatients with a clinical schizophrenia diagnosis in 1957 were followed up from 1957 through 1986, and their cause-specific mortality was determined. Mortality from cardiovascular diseases, lung diseases, gastrointestinal and urogenital disorders, accidents and suicide was increased, whereas mortality from cerebrovascular disorders was reduced. In the male patients cancer mortality was reduced whereas cancer mortality in the female patients was increased. Mortality from a number of causes that theoretically could be associated with side effects from neuroleptics was increased. Mortality from some causes of death used as a measurement of the quality of medical care was found to be slightly increased. Further studies of the quality of the medical care provided to schizophrenic patients and of the association between neuroleptic medication and mortality are needed.

Adult

Severe pancreatitis. Determinants of mortality in a tertiary referral center.

OBJECTIVE: To determine factors associated with mortality in patients with severe pancreatitis. DESIGN: Retrospective review. SETTING: University tertiary referral center intensive care unit (ICU). PATIENTS: Thirty patients admitted to the ICU with the primary diagnosis of pancreatitis from 1986 to 1995. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Survival vs nonsurvival. RESULTS: Twenty-seven patients were transferred from another institution. At the time of ICU admission, subsequent death was not associated with the following: systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, hemoglobin level, leukocyte count, platelet count, or serum calcium concentration. The patients who died during the study were older at admission (age [mean+/-SD] of those who lived, 47+/-17 years; age of those who died, 64+/-8 years; P=.01) and their serum creatinine concentrations were higher (creatinine concentrations [mean +/-SD] of those who lived, 150+/-90 micromol/L [1.7+/-1.0 mg/dL]; creatinine concentrations of those who died, 410+/-250 micromol/L [4.6+/-2.8 mg/dL]; P=.001). Clinical events not associated with mortality included respiratory failure, insulin use, positive blood cultures, positive pancreatic cultures, and abdominal surgery for pancreatitis and infected pancreatic necrosis. Death was associated with the use of inotropic and/or vasopressor support (P=.05) and renal failure (creatinine, >170 micromol/L[>2.0 mg/dL]) at any time during the ICU stay (P=.01). Patients with renal failure were no older than the patients without, but were admitted later after the onset of pancreatitis (mean+/-SD, 5.9+/-7.2 days vs 1.5+/-1.1 days; P=.03; median, 2 days vs 1 days). CONCLUSIONS: After hospital transfer to a teritiary referral center, only older age, use of inotropic and/or vasopressor support, and evidence of renal malfunction are associated with death. Prompt recognition of severe pancreatitis, especially in older patients, aggressive hemodynamic management, and/or earlier transfer to a tertiary care center may diminish the incidence of renal failure and mortality in severe pancreatitis.

Adult

Postoperative pneumonia. Determinants of mortality.

Postoperative pneumonia continues to be a major cause of mortality on surgical services. The determinants that affect survival in patients in whom postoperative pneumonia develops are not clearly defined. We completed a retrospective analysis of 136 patients in whom postoperative pneumonia developed after they had major operative procedures between 1974 and 1980. These patients represented 1.3% of all operative cases, yet comprised 10% of the total 614 patients who died during the study period. The average age of the patients in whom pneumonia developed was 66 years. Significant determinants of death by chi 2 analysis included gram-negative pneumonitis, emergent operation, respirator-acquired pneumonia, postoperative peritonitis, and several factors that suggested that host defenses were overwhelmed (remote organ failure, positive blood cultures, or spread of infection to the second lung). We concluded that postoperative pneumonia is a disease of elderly patients and that survival depends on the ability of the surgeon to help the patient localize and resist the challenge presented by virulent gram-negative organisms.

Aged