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Results for “Population Size”

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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2002

Effective population size and population subdivision in demographically structured populations.

A fast-timescale approximation is applied to the coalescent process in a single population, which is demographically structured by sex and/or age. This provides a general expression for the probability that a pair of alleles sampled from the population coalesce in the previous time interval. The effective population size is defined as the reciprocal of twice the product of generation time and the coalescence probability. Biologically explicit formulas for effective population size with discrete generations and separate sexes are derived for a variety of different modes of inheritance. The method is also applied to a nuclear gene in a population of partially self-fertilizing hermaphrodites. The effects of population subdivision on a demographically structured population are analyzed, using a matrix of net rates of movement of genes between different local populations. This involves weighting the migration probabilities of individuals of a given age/sex class by the contribution of this class to the leading left eigenvector of the matrix describing the movements of genes between age/sex classes. The effects of sex-specific migration and nonrandom distributions of offspring number on levels of genetic variability and among-population differentiation are described for different modes of inheritance in an island model. Data on DNA sequence variability in human and plant populations are discussed in the light of the results.

Animals↗

PubMed1984

Growth with regulation in fluctuating environments. II. Intrinsic lower bounds to population size.

Population growth is modelled by means of diffusion processes originating from fluctuation equations of a new type. These equations are obtained in the customary way by inserting random fluctuations into first order non linear differential equations. However, differently from the cases so far considered in the literature, equations possessing two non trivial fixed points are taken into account. The underlying deterministic models depict the regulated growth of a population whose size cannot decrease below some preassigned lower threshold naturally acting as an absorbing boundary. A fairly comprehensive mathematical description of these models is provided.

Humans↗

PubMed2006

Perfect simulation from nonneutral population genetic models: variable population size and population subdivision.

We show how the idea of monotone coupling from the past can produce simple algorithms for simulating samples at a nonneutral locus under a range of demographic models. We specifically consider a biallelic locus and either a general variable population size mode or a general migration model for population subdivision. We investigate the effect of demography on the efficacy of selection and the effect of selection on genetic divergence between populations.

Algorithms↗

PubMed2005

Phenotypic plasticity in Carlina vulgaris: effects of geographical origin, population size, and population isolation.

If phenotypic plasticity is under genetic control, it may vary in amount and pattern on a geographical scale, e.g. among different regions of a species' distribution. It may also differ between large and small or between less and more isolated populations, due to differences in genetic diversity. In a 2-year common garden study, the responses of several traits to drought and fertilizer treatments were studied in the grassland herb Carlina vulgaris. Individuals originating from populations of different size and degree of isolation in six European countries, representing "central" and "marginal" regions, were compared. Fertilizing had a negative effect on early plant survival, as well as on flowering probability in surviving plants. However, in those plants that flowered, fertilizing strongly increased mean number of flowerheads, flowerhead area (a correlate of seed number), and seed mass. Drought had generally weaker effects but enhanced survivorship, indicating that this treatment was closer to optimal conditions than were non-drought conditions. For some traits there were significant interactions of region x fertilizer, but the geographical pattern of reaction norms was inconsistent and lent no support to the hypothesis that central and marginal populations differ in overall plasticity. Population size and isolation had hardly any influence on treatment responses, but populations within regions differed in their mean response to fertilizing with regard to survival and flowering probabilities, as well as in their response to drought with regard to survival and total flowerhead area. It is concluded that response to raised nutrient levels is highly variable within populations, ranging from death to strongly increased reproductive output, but also among populations irrespective of size or isolation. This also goes for the response to water supply, though this variation shows a more unclear pattern. There is no evidence that small or isolated/marginal populations are less plastic than large or non-isolated/central populations, and the explanation for differences in treatment responses among plant populations should be sought in other population characteristics.

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMed1992

Optimal effective population size for the global population of black and white dairy cattle.

The replacement of other black and white cattle strains by the North American Holstein breed, which itself is dominated by a small number of elite sires, has reduced the genetic diversity of the global population. Intense selection on a global basis leads to rapid genetic improvement but reduces effective population size. The optimal global effective population size was chosen to maximize the net present value of all future benefits from the breeding program. Two separate discount rates were used to reflect concerns about the long-term costs of small effective population size. This led to a higher optimal number of bull-sires than in past analyses. The optimum was sensitive to the magnitude of inbreeding depression and to the discount rates, but not to the variance caused by new mutations and the size of the world population. The genetic correlation between the breeding objectives of different AI studs controls the extent to which they all select the same sires of sons and, hence, affects the global effective population size. The prediction is made that different countries will select partially different sires, but genetically isolated strains will not reemerge. A better global breeding program is likely when selection of sires takes account of inbreeding depression and small genotype by environment interactions.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Respiratory symptoms and hamsters or other pets: a large-sized population survey in Saitama Prefecture.

BACKGROUND: Keeping hamsters as pets has been increasing markedly. Clinical reports have suggested that hamster or other pet ownership is associated with respiratory symptoms. However, this association has not been fully investigated by population-based studies in Japan. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between hamster ownership and respiratory symptoms by using a questionnaire. METHODS: During the period of August 1 to 20, 2002, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in Saitama Prefecture, which has a total population of approximately 7 million. First, we selected, proportionally to the population size, 100 areas from 5 administration districts of Saitama Prefecture. From each area, 30 households were chosen: 15 living in detached houses and 15 living in other types of dwelling, such as apartment houses. In this way, 2 groups based on type of dwelling (detached house versus other types) could be studied. A lay away plan was carried out. For the survey, 2 questionnaires were developed. One was a questionnaire dealing with household conditions, including pet keeping. The other sought details regarding individual health and lifestyle conditions. The questionnaire dealing with respiratory symptoms asked "whether the respondents had experienced respiratory symptoms (wheezing and/or breathlessness and/or bad cough) in the last 12 months." RESULTS: The response rate was 78.9%. There were 7,395 respondents in 2,368 households. There was no association between either dog or cat ownership and respiratory symptoms. In contrast, hamsters kept in the home were positively associated with respiratory symptoms. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, hamster ownership increased the odds ratio for respiratory symptoms (odds ratio: 1.57; 95% confidence interval: 1.18-2.10). CONCLUSION: This large size population-survey indicated that hamster ownership is associated with respiratory symptoms.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2002

Loss of microsatellite diversity and low effective population size in an overexploited population of New Zealand snapper (Pagrus auratus).

Although the effects of overfishing on species diversity and abundance are well documented, threats to the genetic diversity of marine fish populations have so far been largely neglected. Indeed, there seems to be little cause for concern, as even "collapsed" stocks usually consist of several million individuals, whereas population genetics theory suggests that only very small populations suffer significant loss of genetic diversity. On the other hand, in many marine species the genetically effective population size (N(e)), which determines the genetic properties of a population, may be orders of magnitude smaller than the census population size (N). Here, microsatellite analyses of a time series of archived scales demonstrated a significant decline in genetic diversity in a New Zealand snapper population during its exploitation history. Effective population sizes estimated both from the decline in heterozygosity and from temporal fluctuations in allele frequency were five orders of magnitude smaller than census population sizes from fishery data. If such low N(e)/N ratios are commonplace in marine species, many exploited marine fish stocks may be in danger of losing genetic variability, potentially resulting in reduced adaptability, population persistence, and productivity.

Animals↗

PubMed2002

Robust design and the use of auxiliary variables in estimating population size for an open population.

We consider the problem of estimating the population size for an open population where the data are collected over secondary periods within primary periods according to a robust design suggested by Pollock (1982, Journal of Wildlife Management 46, 757-760). A conditional likelihood is used to estimate the parameters associated with a generalized linear model in which the capture probability is assumed to have a logistic form depending on individual covariates. A Horvitz-Thompson-type estimator is used to estimate the population size for each primary period and the survival probabilities between primary periods. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are investigated through simulation and are found to perform well. A data set for such a robust design of a small-mammal capture-recapture study conducted at Dummy Bottom within Browns Park National Wildlife Refuge is analyzed.

Animals↗

PubMed2004

Using temporally spaced sequences to simultaneously estimate migration rates, mutation rate and population sizes in measurably evolving populations.

We present a Bayesian statistical inference approach for simultaneously estimating mutation rate, population sizes, and migration rates in an island-structured population, using temporal and spatial sequence data. Markov chain Monte Carlo is used to collect samples from the posterior probability distribution. We demonstrate that this chain implementation successfully reaches equilibrium and recovers truth for simulated data. A real HIV DNA sequence data set with two demes, semen and blood, is used as an example to demonstrate the method by fitting asymmetric migration rates and different population sizes. This data set exhibits a bimodal joint posterior distribution, with modes favoring different preferred migration directions. This full data set was subsequently split temporally for further analysis. Qualitative behavior of one subset was similar to the bimodal distribution observed with the full data set. The temporally split data showed significant differences in the posterior distributions and estimates of parameter values over time.

Biological Evolution↗

PubMed1994

Modelling problems in conservation genetics using Drosophila: consequences of fluctuating population sizes.

Many natural populations fluctuate widely in population size. This is predicted to reduce effective population size, genetic variation, and reproductive fitness, and to increase inbreeding. The effects of fluctuating population size were examined in small populations of Drosophila melanogaster of the same average size, but maintained using either fluctuating (FPS) or equal (EPS) population sizes. FPS lines were maintained using seven pairs and one pair in alternate generations, and EPS lines with four pairs per generation. Ten replicates of each treatment were maintained. After eight generations, FPS had a higher inbreeding coefficient than EPS (0.60 vs. 0.38), a lower average allozyme heterozygosity (0.068 vs. 0.131), and a much lower relative fitness (0.03 vs. 0.25). Estimates of effective population sizes for FPS and EPS were 3.8 and 7.9 from pedigree inbreeding, and 4.9 vs. 7.1 from changes in average heterozygosities, as compared to theoretical expectations of 3.3 vs. 8.0. Results were generally in accordance with theoretical predictions. Management strategies for populations of rare and endangered species should aim to minimize population fluctuations over generations.

Animals↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Epidemiological models with varying population size and dose-dependent latent period.

Two epidemiological models in a variable-size population are considered. Both have a dose-dependent latent period that depends on the proportion of infectious individuals in the population. In the SEIS model, the proportion of infectious individuals tends to either zero or a stable endemic value. In the SEIRS model, for diseases that confer temporary immunity, periodicity can arise by a Hopf bifurcation.

Communicable Diseases↗

PubMed2004

Effect of unsampled populations on the estimation of population sizes and migration rates between sampled populations.

Current estimators of gene flow come in two methods; those that estimate parameters assuming that the populations investigated are a small random sample of a large number of populations and those that assume that all populations were sampled. Maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches that estimate the migration rates and population sizes directly using coalescent theory can easily accommodate datasets that contain a population that has no data, a so-called 'ghost' population. This manipulation allows us to explore the effects of missing populations on the estimation of population sizes and migration rates between two specific populations. The biases of the inferred population parameters depend on the magnitude of the migration rate from the unknown populations. The effects on the population sizes are larger than the effects on the migration rates. The more immigrants from the unknown populations that are arriving in the sample populations the larger the estimated population sizes. Taking into account a ghost population improves or at least does not harm the estimation of population sizes. Estimates of the scaled migration rate M (migration rate per generation divided by the mutation rate per generation) are fairly robust as long as migration rates from the unknown populations are not huge. The inclusion of a ghost population does not improve the estimation of the migration rate M; when the migration rates are estimated as the number of immigrants Nm then a ghost population improves the estimates because of its effect on population size estimation. It seems that for 'real world' analyses one should carefully choose which populations to sample, but there is no need to sample every population in the neighbourhood of a population of interest.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed1994

Developments in the prediction of effective population size.

Effective population size is a key parameter in evolutionary and quantitative genetics because it measures the rate of genetic drift and inbreeding. Predictive equations of effective size under a range of circumstances and some of their implications are reviewed in this paper. Derivations are made for the simplest cases, and inter-relations between different formulae and methods are discussed.

Animals↗

PubMed1996

Utility of microcosm studies for predicting phylloplane bacterium population sizes in the field.

Population sizes of two ice nucleation-active strains of Pseudomonas syringae were compared on leaves in controlled environments and in the field to determine the ability of microcosm studies to predict plant habitat preferences in the field. The P. syringae strains investigated were the parental strains of recombinant deletion mutant strains deficient in ice nucleation activity that had been field tested for their ability to control plant frost injury. The population size of the P. syringae strains was measured after inoculation at three field locations on up to 40 of the same plant species that were studied in the growth chamber. There was seldom a significant relationship between the mean population size of a given P. syringae strain incubated under either wet or dry conditions in microcosms and the mean population size which could be recovered from the same species when inoculated in the field. Specifically, on some plant species, the population size recovered from leaves in the field was substantially greater than from that species in a controlled environment, while for other plant species field populations were significantly smaller than those observed under controlled conditions. Population sizes of inoculated P. syringae strains, however, were frequently highly positively correlated with the indigenous bacterial population size on the same plant species in the field, suggesting that the ability of a particular plant species to support introduced bacterial strains is correlated with its ability to support large bacterial populations or that indigenous bacteria enhance the survival of introduced strains. Microcosm studies therefore seem most effective at assessing possible differences between parental and recombinant strains under a given environmental regime but are limited in their ability to predict the specific population sizes or plant habitat preferences of bacteria on leaves under field conditions.

Journal Article↗

PubMed1983

Robust estimation of population size in closed animal populations from capture-recapture experiments.

In this paper the problem of finding robust estimators of population size in closed K-sample capture-recapture experiments is considered. Particular attention is paid to models where heterogeneity of capture probabilities is allowed. First, a general estimation procedure is given which does not depend on any assumptions about the form of the distribution of capture probabilities. This is followed by a detailed discussion of the usefulness of the generalized jackknife technique to reduce bias. Numerical comparisons of the bias and variance of various estimators are given. Finally, a general discussion is given with several recommendations on estimators to be used in practice.

Animals↗

PubMed1989

[The effect of directed and stabilizing selection on the population size of Drosophila melanogaster].

Population size as a measure of population fitness was assayed in laboratory lines of Drosophila melanogaster subjected to directional selection for positive photoactivity and stabilizing selection for a complex of metric wing characters. Three experimental designs were used: directional and stabilizing selection (DS); directional selection (D); unselected controls (C). Population size increased under all three experimental designs. The population size of DS and C lines as well as the rate of increase of the DS lines were higher as compared to the D lines. The results suggest that stabilizing selection maintains population fitness at the higher level.

Animals↗

PubMed2000

The effective population size of some age-structured populations.

It was shown in a previous paper that if generations are discrete, then the effective population size of a large population can be derived from the theory of multitype branching processes. It turns out to be proportional to the reciprocal of a term that appears in the denominator of expressions for survival probabilities when there is a supercritical positively regular branching process for which the dominant positive eigenvalue of the first moment matrix is slightly larger than 1. If there is an age-structured population with unchanging proportions among sexes and age groups, then the effective population size is shown to be also obtainable from the theory of multitype branching processes. The expression for this parameter has the same form as in the corresponding model for discrete generations, multiplied by an appropriate measure of the average length of a generation. Results are obtained for dioecious random mating populations, populations reproducing partly by selfing, and populations reproducing partly by full-sib mating.

Age Factors↗

PubMed1990

Increased selection response in larger populations. I. Selection for wing-tip height in Drosophila melanogaster at three population sizes.

The effect of population size on selection response was investigated with replicated selection lines of 40, 200 and 1000 selected parents, using Drosophila melanogaster homozygous for the mutant raised. Selection for increased wing-tip height was carried out for 55 generations, with an average selection intensity of 0.6 standard deviation. The rank order of responses in the seven individual lines was significantly in order of population size, and the variance of response among lines showed a significant effect of population size. The final mean responses (selected - controls, +/- standard errors) in the three treatments, in order of increasing population size, were 8.6 +/- 1.8 mils (three small lines), 15.1 +/- 1.3 mils (two medium lines), and 19.8 +/- 1.5 mils (two large lines). The differences between treatments seem to have emerged too rapidly to be the result of mutations, and are probably due mainly to the utilization of existing variation with greater efficiency by selection in larger populations.

Animals↗