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The concepts of validation, evaluation and predictive values of short term tests for carcinogenicity are rigorously defined. The relationships between the parameters measuring these concepts are established. This allows and estimation of the practical efficiency of Ames Salmonella test (1). A new strategy for the evaluation of tests is proposed.
The EEG, as recorded from electrodes in deep structures of the brain in cases of intractable seizures, has been surveyed to assess its predictive value in the partial epilepsies. In addition to scalp EEGs and depth EEGs in control situations, ictal recordings of tape-recorded seizures and the interictal enhancement of EEG signs by benzodiazepines have been analyzed. All results have been quantified by computer analysis. The predictive value of the EEGs has been assessed in 2 ways: (1) by comparison with the pathology found after surgery and (2) by the long-term clinical status of the patient postoperatively. Twelve cases with lesions found in limbic structures and 6 with cortical involvement are reported. In the latter cases secondary firing of the hippocampus, with its low threshold for seizures, frequently followed, though more rapidly than could be timed by visual inspection alone. Bilateral signs both in scalp EEGs and in depth were a common finding in the cases with limbic lesions. In those patients with marked clinical improvement, follow-up computerized studies of pre- and post-operative scalp EEGs revealed normalization in both hemispheres, leading to the proposal that a focus of defective tissue may impair neuronal function in widely distant regions of the brain.
A prospective study of 181 patients suspected of having liver disease was carried out to determine the relative efficiencies of serum bilirubin (total and direct), alkaline phosphatase (AP), gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) with respect to diagnosis. Liver biopsies, liver scans, abdominal ultrasound, and clinical parameters were also tabulated and used independently to evaluate the patient's hepatic status and to determine the final diagnoses in each case. From the results of these tests for the 60 patients who were diagnosed as having liver disease, and the 87 patients who were felt to be free of liver disease, predictive values of the above tests were established. Data from this study suggests that while direct bilirubin is the most specific test, GGT is the most sensitive and has the fewest false negatives in the diagnosis of liver disease.
Three hundred fifty human sera were tested by double immunodiffusion, crossed-line electrophoresis, and crossed immuno-affinoelectrophoresis with a concanavalin A intermediate gel for precipitating antibodies to antigens present in cytoplasmic extracts of Candida albicans. Sera from 48 of 287 hospitalized patients at risk of invasive candidiasis contained precipitating antibodies to Candida antigens. Of these 48 sera, 27 had precipitating antibodies only to cell-wall antigens present in the cytoplasmic extract, and 21 sera had precipitating antibodies to both cytoplasmic and cell-wall antigens. The latter sera came from patients who were 2.5 times as likely to have deep-seated candidiasis as those patients with precipitins exclusively to cell-wall antigens. Sera from seven of 22 patients with vaginal candidiasis and 10 of 41 patients with other fungal infections had precipitating antibodies to C. albicans cell-wall antigens; only two of these sera also contained precipitating antibodies to the cytoplasmic antigens. Crossed immunoaffinoelectrophoresis with concanavalin A reduced the number of false-positive results and increased the predictive value positive of the precipitin test for deep-seated candidiasis from 31% to 71%.
OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the outputs of machine learning algorithms designed to predict risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) address known deficiencies of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and improve risk estimates. METHODS: For this critical review, Medline, Embase and IEEE were searched from inception to 1 January 2025. Included were studies describing machine learning algorithms designed to specifically compare output of cardiovascular risk assessment with the FRS. Commentaries, letters, unpublished work or non-peer-reviewed papers were excluded.Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, two reviewers screened titles and abstracts independently, then populated a purpose-built data extraction form. A subsequent qualitative thematic analysis focused on algorithms' strengths, added value, potential harms, unintended consequences and equity implications.The main outcome assessed was whether, among healthy adults, the algorithm improved CVD risk prediction relative to the FRS. RESULTS: Of 707 studies retrieved, 29 met inclusion criteria. 23 reported improved predictive ability relative to the FRS. Most datasets and/or medical records used included sociodemographic predictors of CVD not included among FRS inputs. Some added costly diagnostic tests like CT angiography to FRS screening indicators. When they were defined, inputs and outcomes such as hypertension or myocardial infarction did not always adhere to FRS values. Statistical significance was generally taken as a proxy for clinical significance. Some algorithms overestimated the number at risk compared with the FRS without discussing whether that larger proportion might be at risk of overdiagnosis rather than CVD, while a few decreased the proportion found to be at risk. CONCLUSIONS: Use of artificial intelligence to improve accuracy of risk assessment for CVD demonstrates the technological capacity to merge known sociodemographic predictors with biologic variables and examine non-linear interactions among these. Still needed to achieve patient benefit is clinical insight, adherence to screening principles and cost-benefit assessment of inputs selected.
This study evaluated the mixed leukocyte culture (MLC) technique to quantitate differences in kidney allograft survival between unrelated animals. Each of five beagles received two heterotopic kidney allografts, one from a mongrel dog showing high MLC stimulation and one from a second mongrel dog showing a low MLC stimulation. Low or high stimulators were defined by the amount of radioactive thymidine incorporated by lymphocytes when the recipient was tested against a number of potential donors in one way MLC TESTS. Low and high stimulators usually differed by a factor of up to ten in the stimulation index. Recipients were given a standard treatment of asathioprine and prednisone. No special treatment was given for rejection episodes. Creatine clearances and periodic biopsies were used to determine rejection. Creatine clearances and biopsies showed the high stimulating kidneys to be rejected completely by the end of 2 weeks in all animals. All of the low stimulating kidneys maintained normal function for 3 weeks and then developed progressive deterioration and rejection over the next 3 to 6 weeks. These studies suggest that quantitation of the MLC may be predictive of kidney allograft survival in unrelated dogs.
Four serologic techniques for the diagnosis of visceral larva migrans caused by Toxocara canis, namely indirect hemagglutination (IHA), bentonite flocculation (BF), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), and double diffusion in agar (Ouchterlony), were evaluated using sera sent to the Center for Disease Control from patients with a presumptive diagnosis of visceral larva migrans (VLM). Patients having 5-6 of the clinical or laboratory criteria for VLM were designated as cases while those with 0-2 criteria served as controls. The sensitivity of the ELISA was 78.3% compared to 18.2%, 25.8% and 65.2% for the IHA, BF, and Ouchterlony, respectively; the sepcificity of all four tests was greater than 92%. The predivtive value of positive test was greater than 85% for all tests except the IHA, while the predictive value of a negative test was greater than 85% only for the ELISA. The results of a ELISA were reproducible in different laboratories. Based on these findings, the ELISA using a larval antigen appears to be the serodiagnostic method of choice for VLM.
BACKGROUND: Executive functions (EF) encompass abilities such as planning, decision-making, and inhibitory control, critical for learning, establishing and maintaining behavioral change. The association between alcohol use disorder (AUD) and impairments in EF are well established. However, prior research is dominated by studies on convenience samples including individuals with severe AUD with high levels of psychiatric comorbidity, which limits generalizability. The present study therefore aimed to investigate the degree of impairment and predictive ability of EF, on alcohol consumption, among individuals with moderate AUD with low levels of psychiatric comorbidity. METHODS: Adults with moderate AUD (n = 147) were recruited at three specialized addiction outpatient clinics in Stockholm, to a randomized controlled trial investigating the efficacy of two psychological treatments. Participants underwent neuropsychological testing before treatment. Eight tests from the CANTAB® battery were administered at baseline, assessing mental flexibility, sustained attention, visuospatial working memory, response inhibition, and delay discounting. Assessments of alcohol use and related symptoms were conducted at baseline, the 12- and 26-weeks follow-up. A non-clinical reference sample (n = 72) completed corresponding CANTAB® tests. The two groups were compared regarding EF using descriptive statistics and t-tests, and the predictive value of EF for reduction in alcohol consumption, was investigated using multiple regression models. RESULTS: Individuals with AUD did not perform worse on any of the tests on executive function (CANTAB®) as compared to the non-clinical reference sample. Measures of EF were not significant predictors for reduction in alcohol use for the 12-week, or the 26-week follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: EFs were not impaired and were not a clinically relevant predictor of treatment outcomes in this population with AUD. Future research on EF as a predictor in AUD treatment, needs to corroborate the present findings, and include other populations, e.g., with different socio-economic backgrounds and by including other methodologies for measuring EF.
The authors present the results of 83 consecutive in vivo stainings with toluidine blue in various laryngeal diseases. Thirty one (86%) of the 36 malignant tumors showed positive staining. (95% confidence limits: 70-95.) It is concluded that malignant tumors will nearly always fix the dye, and that a negative staining test seems to be evidence against cancer. (Predictive value of negative test: 0.89, 95% confidence limits: 76-96.
PURPOSE: Women treated with radiation therapy (RT) for breast cancer have an increased risk of developing radiation-associated contralateral breast cancer (CBC). Predicting CBC events is challenging because of the complex interplay of genomic, treatment, personal, and clinical factors. This study investigated computational methods that integrate genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms and nongenomic data to develop a risk stratification model for developing CBC in women treated with RT for their first primary breast cancer. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This study used a subset of the population-based Women's Environmental Cancer and Radiation Epidemiology study that included 633 CBC cases and 1253 individually matched unilateral breast cancer controls who were treated with RT and had single-nucleotide polymorphism data available from a genome-wide association study. The study population was split into training, validation, and test sets for rigorous modeling and validation. Three data integration methods were compared in terms of their ability to stratify CBC risk: (1) naive integration; (2) sequential integration; and (3) sequential iterative integration. A biological analysis of the final model was performed using gene set enrichment analysis and protein-protein interaction analysis with gene annotation information informed by the model. RESULTS: The best-performing integration method was the sequential iterative integration equipped with the mixed-effect random forest algorithm. This approach achieved an area under the curve of 0.64 to stratify CBC risk in the test set, representing moderate predictive power. Calibration analysis showed good agreement between the lowest and highest risk bins stratified using sorted predicted values in the test set, resulting in an odds ratio of 3.27 for both predicted and observed CBC occurrence. Gene set enrichment analysis and protein-protein interaction analysis revealed that genes with high importance scores were associated with pathways relevant to lipid and fatty acid metabolism as well as breast cancer sensitivity to tamoxifen. CONCLUSIONS: The mixed-effect random forest approach demonstrated the potential for integrating high-dimensional genomic and low-dimensional nongenomic data to stratify CBC risk.
A test which measures the inhibition of Fc-rosette formation by the patient's serum was used in a group of 23 renal allograft recipients. All 13 serum samples obtained during acute rejection and 2 of 3 obtained during chronic rejection showed strong inhibitory activity, suggesting that the test is of value in confirming the presence of rejection. Its value as a predictive test remains to be established. Preliminary experiments suggest that both immune complexes and alloantibodies contribute to the observed inhibition of Fc-rosette formation.
BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a leading global cause of mortality, yet the predictive accuracy of conventional risk models is limited. Here, we integrate conventional risk factors, polygenic risk scores, and large-scale proteomics to develop a unified model for enhanced CAD risk prediction. METHODS: Using data from UK Biobank, participants with plasma proteomics and genetic risk data were included after excluding prevalent CAD. Participants from England were split into training (n=32 330) and internal validation (n=13 857) sets, and Scotland/Wales participants formed an external validation set (n=5775). Incident CAD was ascertained from linked health records. A 202-protein proteomic risk score was derived by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression, and CatBoost models were trained using conventional risk factors alone and with incremental addition of polygenic risk scores and protein proteomic risk scores; Shapley Additive Explanations-guided forward selection identified a compact protein panel. RESULTS: Across cohorts, the median age was 58 years and ∼45% were men. Protein proteomic risk score was dose-dependently associated with CAD risk. Compared with conventional risk factors alone, integrating polygenic risk scores and protein proteomic risk scores improved discrimination, with the area under the curve increasing from 0.750 (95% CI, 0.732-0.767) to 0.789 (95% CI, 0.772-0.805) in internal validation and from 0.717 (95% CI, 0.683-0.750) to 0.762 (95% CI, 0.732-0.791) in external validation. A 9-protein panel (GDF15 [growth differentiation factor 15], MMP12 [matrix metalloproteinase 12], NPPB [natriuretic peptide B], PGF [placental growth factor], REN [renin], ADGRG2 [adhesion G-protein coupled receptor], ACE2 [angiotensin-converting enzyme 2], CDCP1 [CUB domain-containing protein 1], CXCL17 [C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 17)]) captured most proteomic predictive information. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate that integrating conventional risk factors, polygenic risk scores, and proteomic data improves CAD risk prediction. This study highlights the utility of proteomics in precision cardiovascular medicine and simplified risk stratification tools.
BACKGROUND: Sacral neuromodulation (SNM) is an established therapy for refractory pelvic organ dysfunction. Anal sphincter electromyography (EMG) is commonly used preoperatively to assess sacral and peripheral nerve integrity. However, the prognostic significance of chronic neurogenic EMG changes for SNM outcomes remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether chronic neurogenic changes on preoperative anal sphincter EMG predict the outcome of the SNM test phase. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 62 consecutive patients with bladder and/or bowel dysfunction or pelvic pain who were candidates for SNM treatment and who underwent preoperative anal sphincter EMG. EMG findings were classified as normal or showing chronic neurogenic changes. SNM test-phase success was defined as a ≥50% improvement of symptoms at 24 days. Outcomes were compared between EMG groups. RESULTS: Of the 62 patients (49 women, 13 men), 30 (48%) had normal EMG findings and 32 (52%) showed chronic neurogenic changes. Overall, the SNM test phase was successful in 47 patients (76%). Success rates were similar in patients with normal EMG (72%) and neurogenic EMG changes (79%), with no statistically significant difference (p = 0.878). Sex-stratified analyses revealed no significant association between EMG findings and test-phase success in women or men. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic neurogenic changes on anal sphincter EMG do not predict SNM test-phase outcomes. These findings suggest that abnormal sphincter EMG results should not be used as a standalone criterion to exclude patients from SNM therapy. SIGNIFICANCE: Signs of neurogenic damage on anal sphincter EMG are not an indicator of reduced neuromodulatory capacity or diminished clinical response to SNM.
Violence against healthcare staff, including a threat or an act of violence toward people during their work, poses a physical and psychological risk to workers internationally. Screening is an important strategy in preventing violence against healthcare professionals. The aim of this systematic review was to synthesize evidence on the predictive validity of risk assessment tools used to screen for violence and aggression risk toward healthcare workers in emergency and psychiatric departments (PD). Primary studies that examined the predictive validity of risk assessment tools for workplace violence were identified via a systematic search of Medline, PsycINFO, Embase, and the Cochrane databases. There were 62 eligible studies, ten of which had a lower risk of bias (RoB). Those studies with high RoB were primarily due to a failure to present calibration measures as part of the analysis. All included studies adopted a longitudinal design and were conducted in PDs. The ten highest-quality studies reported on eight different instruments, four of which showed acceptable to outstanding predictive performance. The Dynamic Appraisal of Situational Aggression and the Brøset Violence Checklist showed the best predictive performance; they were also validated in emergency departments and are best suited for short-term risk prediction. We recommend that the selection of a risk assessment tool should consider the following: (a) the target population, (b) the violence operationalization, and (c) the purpose of the monitoring. We note that the use of a screening tool should be a part of a multicomponent strategy to ensure staff safety.
Genomes reveal vast functional potential, but harbor genomic noise that obscures prediction of metabolic and environmental preferences. Genomic databases are skewed towards clinically relevant and easily cultivated bacteria, limiting predictions for diverse and underrepresented environmental taxa. Psychrotrophic bacteria, which can survive and grow in cold, nutrient-limited, dry, and saline environments, are especially underrepresented despite their relevance for understanding microbial responses to changing cold environments and potential biotechnological value given growth at low temperatures. Assembling complete genomes of 48 isolates from Alaskan permafrost, seasonally frozen active layer soils, and terrestrial ice, we used Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) ortholog annotations to evaluate the predictability of metabolic resource-use traits observed using phenotypic tests. Genome-predicted values for glycolytic versus gluconeogenic catabolic preference index, or sugar-acid preference (SAP), explained over 50% of the variance in empirically observed SAP. SAP was inversely correlated to genomic GC content, which follows phylum-level trends, indicating that coarse metabolic preference covaries with phylogeny. Regularized elastic net models offered a more granular view, linking KEGG genes to specific substrate utilization and sensitivity phenotypes and yielding moderate but reproducible accuracy (AUC 0.70-0.79) for 11 substrates, demonstrating that specific substrate responses may be predictable from relatively small subsets of KO genes. These results extend recent advances, such as the SAP metric, and highlight associations among genomic GC content, phylum, and broad metabolic strategy. Linking genomic content to phenotype using isolates is a necessary step toward predictive models of microbial function in environmental communities, and this work can be used for hypothesis generation, with applications towards more expansive data sets.IMPORTANCECold region soils and ice host psychrotrophic bacteria with metabolic traits and adaptations that enable persistence in harsh, resource-limited environments. However, these taxa are underrepresented in genomic reference databases dominated by well-studied, mesophilic organisms. This gap limits inference of ecological strategies and our ability to predict how these microbes may influence the large, thaw-vulnerable carbon reservoirs in permafrost. Here, we show that genomic GC content is associated with the sugar-versus-acid catabolic preference (SAP) of isolates across major phyla, suggesting that broad genomic features may provide a coarse signal of metabolic strategy. We demonstrate that a modified SAP metric, using binary (positive/negative) substrate utilization rather than detailed growth rate measurements, is moderately predictive, thus extending its application to slow-growing or difficult-to-culture taxa. Together, these advances broaden the toolkit for linking genome content to resource-use traits (phenotype) in poorly characterized, cold-adapted bacteria and offer a tractable entry point to broad prediction and hypothesis generation.
An unselected series of 136 patients suspected of having a major intra-abdominal pathological condition had blood drawn and stored as serum. A definitive histological diagnosis was made in all cases, usually by laparotomy. The serum was analysed with coded samples for carcino-embryonic antigen, alpha-fetoprotein and pancreatic oncofetal antigen and all recorded levels above the upper limit of normal for that test were taken as a positive result. Results were analysed to give the predictive value of a positive test and a negative test for each antigen. A negative pancreatic oncofetal antigen test was found to be useful in excluding a diagnosis of pancreatic cancer.
BACKGROUND: Fine-needle aspiration (FNA) is critical in the initial diagnosis of many high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV)-associated, metastatic oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas. Updated guidelines recommend HR-HPV-specific polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis over p16 immunohistochemistry on FNA specimens because p16 performs poorly on cytology material. PCR-based assays on liquid cytology material have demonstrated excellent analytic performance; however, the diagnostic utility of a positive HR-HPV PCR result in specimens with indeterminate cytomorphology remains uncharacterized. METHODS: The authors retrospectively identified 279 head and neck FNA specimens that had paired HR-HPV PCR testing on residual liquid cytology material over a 5-year period. The positive predictive value for histopathologically confirmed squamous cell carcinoma on surgical follow-up was calculated within each cytologic interpretive category. RESULTS: The HR-HPV PCR results were positive in 50.2% of specimens, negative in 40.9%, and indeterminate in 9.0%. The HR-HPV positivity rate ranged from 0% in specimens categorized as negative for malignancy to 57.3% in cytologically positive specimens, with 19.0%, 41.2%, and 50.0% positivity in the atypical, suspicious, and nondiagnostic categories, respectively. Among cytologically indeterminate specimens with positive HR-HPV PCR results (n = 14), the positive predictive value was 100% (95% confidence interval, 78.5%-100.0%). Blinded slide review additionally identified 15 cytologically positive specimens in which the definitive malignant interpretation depended substantially on HR-HPV positivity; all 15 were confirmed as squamous cell carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: A positive HR-HPV PCR result on liquid cytology material carries a positive predictive value of 100% for malignancy in cytologically indeterminate head and neck FNA specimens. These findings support integrating HR-HPV PCR analysis into routine cytologic interpretation with the potential to upgrade some indeterminate specimens to malignant when HR-HPV is detected, expediting definitive treatment and sparing patients additional, invasive sampling.
Physical examination of the patient with low back pain routinely includes a number of tests which are useful clinically to the orthopedist as suggestive of the presence of hysteria or malingering. These include tests of light touch differences medially and laterally in the same foot or leg, vibratory sensation in the lower extremities, forward flexion, straight-leg raising differences between the supine and sitting positions, and the Burns' bench test. The present study examined the specific predictive utility of these tests individually and as a composite battery in identifying low back pain patients with hysterical personality features. Twenty-five postoperative lumbar laminectomy and diskectomy patients were administered the MMPI and evaluated by physical examination. Silight to moderate correlations were found for each of the subtests with a Composite Hysteria Index derived from the MMPI. The predictability was improved by the use of a weighted combination of the individual tests obtained by multiple regression analysis. The results lend empirical support to: the predictive value of these clinical tests in definitively identifying 60% of those low back pain patients with hysterical personality features; decision rules for use in clinical practice were also developed.