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PubMed2026

Development and internal validation of a six-gene prognostic model based on galactose metabolism for overall survival in lung adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer remains a leading cause of cancer incidence and mortality globally. Metabolic reprogramming promotes tumor progression and shapes an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. Galactose metabolism is involved in multiple malignancies, but its prognostic value in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) remains unclear. This study aimed to develop and internally validate a galactose metabolism-related multigene prognostic model for LUAD. METHODS: A retrospective prognostic model development and internal validation study was performed using RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and clinical data from 585 LUAD patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Differential expression, functional enrichment, univariate and multivariate Cox regression were applied to construct a prognostic gene signature. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling. Model performance was evaluated by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), C-index, calibration, and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Associations between the model and immune infiltration, immunotherapy responsiveness, and tumor stemness were also analyzed. RESULTS: A six-gene prognostic model (GALT, GANC, PGM1, GALM, B4GALT1, PGM2) was developed. The model showed good discrimination with 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.719, 0.693, and 0.684, respectively. The low-risk group exhibited significantly longer survival, increased antitumor immune infiltration (CD8+ T cells, M1 macrophages, activated CD4+ memory T cells), higher expression of T cell proliferation-related genes, lower immune checkpoint expression, better predicted immunotherapy response, and lower tumor stemness compared with the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated a six-gene prognostic model for LUAD based on galactose metabolism. The model shows moderate prognostic performance and is associated with antitumor immunity and tumor stemness. It may be used for prognostic risk stratification and to guide personalized immunotherapy in LUAD.

Galactose metabolism↗

PubMed2025

Identification of key genes related to bone metastasis of breast cancer using bioinformatics methods and construction of a prognostic model.

Breast cancer (BC) ranks among the most prevalent cancers in females, with bone metastasis significantly compromising patients' quality of life and survival rates. Enhancing our comprehension of BC bone metastasis mechanisms at the molecular level holds promise for improving BC treatment and prognosis. Leveraging bioinformatics tools, we integrated multiple datasets, conducted comprehensive analyses across various databases, identified biomarkers associated with BC bone metastasis, and constructed a prognostic model. Firstly, 3 BC bone metastasis-related datasets were downloaded from gene expression omnibus, the data were merged, and batch effects were removed, followed by identification of differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Gene ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses were performed on the DEGs. A protein-protein interaction network was constructed using the STRING database to screen hub genes. Then, survival analysis of hub genes was performed using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. A prognostic model was constructed using key genes with survival differences, and the model was evaluated. Two hundred ninety-two DEGs were identified. Gene ontology and KEGG pathway enrichment analysis yielded 769 biological processes (BPs), 78 cellular components, 43 molecular functions, and 50 KEGG pathways. Fifteen hub genes were selected from the protein-protein interaction network. Survival analysis revealed 6 genes related to BC survival. The prognostic model identified 4 genes with important predictive value for BC prognosis. Our study utilized bioinformatics analysis to identify a series of DEGs related to BC bone metastasis. Based on further selection of hub genes, we constructed a relatively ideal prognostic model for BC, and identified 4 genes (DLGAP5, TPX2, PLK1, and CENPN) with valuable predictive value for BC prognosis.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Machine learning prognostic model and drug survival analysis for lung adenocarcinoma in the context of radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) receiving radiotherapy represent an important but underexplored clinical subgroup. These patients often undergo concomitant pharmacologic treatments, yet the prognostic impact and underlying determinants of such combined regimens remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: This retrospective observational study aimed to develop and validate a radiotherapy-specific machine learning prognostic model for LUAD and to compare survival across concomitant pharmacologic regimens. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, using genomic and clinical data from TCGA, a radiotherapy-specific prognostic model for LUAD was developed and validated through ten machine learning algorithms. Survival analyses were conducted across distinct concomitant pharmacologic strategies, followed by functional enrichment to elucidate molecular mechanisms underlying differential outcomes. RESULTS: Demonstrating robust prognostic abilities, the model efficiently sorted patients into high- and low-risk categories. Both treatment type and risk score independently predicted overall survival, with significant interaction effects. Low-risk patients receiving targeted or combination therapy-mainly erlotinib, gefitinib, or bevacizumab-exhibited substantially improved survival compared with those receiving conventional chemotherapy. Enrichment of "Exogenous peptide presentation," "MHC class II assembly," "Peptide-MHC II assembly," and "Symbiotic interaction" pathways indicated immune modulation and host-tumor crosstalk as key mediators of treatment efficacy. CONCLUSION: This study establishes a radiotherapy-specific prognostic model for lung adenocarcinoma, demonstrating distinct molecular and therapeutic heterogeneity and highlighting the superior survival benefit of targeted combination therapy in low-risk patients.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Targeting RELA and STAT3 regulates TNFRSF10A-mediated apoptosis in a novel apoptosis-based prognostic model for clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is the most common subtype of renal malignancy and remains a major cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Although advances in surgery, targeted therapy, and immunotherapy have improved outcomes for patients, reliable biomarkers for predicting prognosis remain limited. Therefore, robust gene-based prognostic models are urgently needed to improve risk stratification and guide individualized treatment strategies. METHODS: We developed a novel prognostic model integrating apoptosis and immune - related genes (AIRGs) to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with ccRCC. RESULT: Using Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) combined with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, we identified 7 key prognostic genes, namely, CCR4, TNFRSF10A, TEK, TGFA, CD14, IFITM1, and SEMA3G, that collectively demonstrated strong predictive performance in TCGA cohort with c-index = 0.711. Functional enrichment analyses revealed that apoptosis, immune regulation, and multiple oncogenic signaling pathways were significantly associated with the risk score, highlighting the critical role of the tumor microenvironment in ccRCC progression. Transcription factor binding analysis based on the JASPAR database suggested that RELA and STAT3 with scores of 0.829 and 0.951, respectively are potential upstream regulators within the prognostic network, particularly influencing TNFRSF10A expression. External validation using the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) dataset confirmed the robustness of the prognostic model with c-index = 0.612 Furthermore, in vitro experiments demonstrated that RELA and STAT3 regulate TNFRSF10A-mediated apoptotic signaling in ccRCC cells, providing mechanistic support for the bioinformatic findings. CONCLUSION: This study establishes a biologically informed and clinically relevant prognostic framework for ccRCC. Our findings highlight the therapeutic potential of targeting the RELA/STAT3-TNFRSF10A axis and contribute to the advancement of precision medicine in ccRCC.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Benchmark of biomarker identification and prognostic modeling methods on diverse censored data.

The practices of identifying biomarkers and developing prognostic models using genomic data has become increasingly prevalent. Such data often features characteristics that make these practices difficult, namely high dimensionality, correlations between predictors, and sparsity. Many modern methods have been developed to address these problematic characteristics while performing feature selection and prognostic modeling, but a large-scale comparison of their performances in these tasks on diverse right-censored time to event data (aka survival time data) is much needed. We have compiled many existing methods, including some machine learning methods, several which have performed well in previous benchmarks, primarily for comparison in regards to variable selection capability, and secondarily for survival time prediction on many synthetic datasets with varying levels of sparsity, correlation between predictors, and signal strength of informative predictors. For illustration, we have also performed multiple analyses on a publicly available and widely used cancer cohort from The Cancer Genome Atlas using these methods. We evaluated the methods through extensive simulation studies in terms of the false discovery rate, F1-score, concordance index, Brier score, root mean square error, and computation time. Of the methods compared, CoxBoost and the Adaptive LASSO performed well in all metrics, and the LASSO and elastic net excelled when evaluating concordance index and F1-score. The Benjamini-Hoschberg and q-value procedures showed volatile performances in controlling the false discovery rate. Some methods' performances were greatly affected by differences in the data characteristics. With our extensive numerical study, we have identified the best performing methods for a plethora of data characteristics using informative metrics. This will help cancer researchers in choosing the best approach for their needs when working with genomic data.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Prognostic model based on calcium-related genes predicts prognosis and reveals the immune landscape of acute myeloid leukemia.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) exhibits heterogeneous outcomes and lacks reliable prognostic markers. As a critical regulator of cell fate, the prognostic value of calcium signaling in AML requires investigation. This study aimed to construct a calcium-related gene (CRG)-based prognostic model for AML. Differential analysis on RNA-seq data was conducted for AML from The Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). Intersecting differentially expressed genes and CRGs yielded AML-associated differentially expressed CRGs (DECRGs). A prognostic model was developed using univariate/multivariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and validated in a GEO dataset. Bioinformatics analyses explored the links between risk groups and immune characteristics, genomic mutations, and drug sensitivity. Key genes' effects on cell proliferation, apoptosis, and differentiation were verified in vitro using CCK-8 assay, colony formation assay, and flow cytometry. The 13-DECRG-based model distinguished high- and low-risk patients in both training and validation cohorts, with high-risk patients showing a worse prognosis. The risk score was an independent prognostic factor. Immune analysis revealed a unique immune microenvironment for the high-risk group. CAMK2A overexpression inhibited cell proliferation and colony-forming ability, promoted cell apoptosis, and induced an increased proportion of CD11b- and CD14-positive cells. In vitro experiments indicated CAMK2A-induced suppression of AML cells' malignant phenotype by activating the P53 signaling pathway. An AML CRG-based model with favorable risk stratification performance was constructed. In vitro experiments revealed CAMK2A-induced inhibition of the malignant phenotype via suppressing proliferation, promoting apoptosis, and facilitating myeloid differentiation in AML cells. This study provides novel evidence for understanding CRGs in AML as well as the potential functions of CAMK2A.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2025

Construction of a prognostic model for gastric cancer based on immune infiltration and microenvironment, and exploration of MEF2C gene function.

BACKGROUND: Advanced gastric cancer (GC) exhibits a high recurrence rate and a dismal prognosis. Myocyte enhancer factor 2c (MEF2C) was found to contribute to the development of various types of cancer. Therefore, our aim is to develop a prognostic model that predicts the prognosis of GC patients and initially explore the role of MEF2C in immunotherapy for GC. METHODS: Transcriptome sequence data of GC was obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and PRJEB25780 cohort for subsequent immune infiltration analysis, immune microenvironment analysis, consensus clustering analysis and feature selection for definition and classification of gene M and N. Principal component analysis (PCA) modeling was performed based on gene M and N for the calculation of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) Score. Then, a Nomogram was constructed and evaluated for predicting the prognosis of GC patients, based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Functional enrichment analysis was performed to initially investigate the potential biological mechanisms. Through Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) dataset, the estimated IC50 values of several chemotherapeutic drugs were calculated. Tumor-related transcription factors (TFs) were retrieved from the Cistrome Cancer database and utilized our model to screen these TFs, and weighted correlation network analysis (WGCNA) was performed to identify transcription factors strongly associated with immunotherapy in GC. Finally, 10 patients with advanced GC were enrolled from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, including paired tumor tissues, paracancerous tissues and peritoneal metastases, for preparing sequencing library, in order to perform external validation. RESULTS: Lower ICI Score was correlated with improved prognosis in both the training and validation cohorts. First, lower mutant-allele tumor heterogeneity (MATH) was associated with lower ICI Score, and those GC patients with lower MATH and lower ICI Score had the best prognosis. Second, regardless of the T or N staging, the low ICI Score group had significantly higher overall survival (OS) compared to the high ICI Score group. For its mechanisms, consistently, for Camptothecin, Doxorubicin, Mitomycin, Docetaxel, Cisplatin, Vinblastine, Sorafenib and Paclitaxel, all of the IC50 values were significantly lower in the low ICI Score group compared to the high ICI Score group. As a result, based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression, ICI Score was considered to be an independent prognostic factor for GC. And our Nomogram showed good agreement between predicted and actual probabilities. Based on CIBERSORT deconvolution analysis, there was difference of immune cell composition found between high and low ICI Score groups, probably affecting the efficacy of immunotherapy. Then, MEF2C, a tumor-related transcription factor, was screened out by WGCNA analysis. Higher MEF2C expression is significantly correlated with a worse OS. Moreover, its higher expression is also negatively correlated with tumor mutation burden (TMB) and microsatellite instability (MSI), but positively correlated with several immunosuppressive molecules, indicating MEF2C may exert its influence on tumor development by upregulating immunosuppressive molecules. Finally, based on transcriptome sequencing data on 10 paired tumor tissues from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, MEF2C expression was significantly lower in paracancerous tissues compared to tumor tissues and peritoneal metastases, and it was also lower in tumor tissues compared to peritoneal metastases, indicating a potential positive association between MEF2C expression and tumor invasiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Our prognostic model can effectively predict outcomes and facilitate stratification GC patients, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making. The identified transcription factor MEF2C can serve as a biomarker for assessing the efficacy of immunotherapy for GC.

Humans↗

PubMed2024

Construction and Analysis of a Mitochondrial Metabolism-Related Prognostic Model for Breast Cancer to Evaluate Survival and Immunotherapy.

As one of the most prevalent malignancies among women, breast cancer (BC) is tightly linked to metabolic dysfunction. However, the correlation between mitochondrial metabolism-related genes (MMRGs) and BC remains unclear. The training and validation datasets for BC were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus databases, respectively. MMRG-related data were obtained from the Molecular Signatures Database. A risk score prognostic model incorporating MMRGs was established based on univariate, LASSO, and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Independent factors affecting BC prognosis were identified through regression analysis and presented in a nomogram. Single-sample gene set enrichment analysis was employed to assess the immune levels of high-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) groups. The sensitivity of BC patients in the two groups to common anti-tumor drugs was evaluated by utilizing the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer database. 12 MMRGs significantly associated with survival were selected from 1234 MMRGs. A 12-gene risk score prognostic model was built. In the multivariate regression analysis incorporating classical clinical factors, the MMRG-related risk score remained an independent prognostic factor. As revealed by tumor immune microenvironment analysis, the LR group with higher survival rates had elevated immune levels. The drug sensitivity results unmasked that the LR group demonstrated higher sensitivity to Irinotecan, Nilotinib, and Oxaliplatin, while the HR group demonstrated higher sensitivity to Lapatinib. The development of MMRG characteristics provides a comprehensive understanding of mitochondrial metabolism in BC, aiding in the prediction of prognosis and tumor microenvironment, and offering promising therapeutic choices for BC patients with different MMRG risk scores.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Non-small cell lung cancer and tumor-educated platelets: screening of biomarkers and construction of a prognostic model.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, emphasizing the urgent need for effective early detection strategies. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) provides a unique perspective on tumor pathogenesis, focusing on concepts such as "long-term stasis leading to accumulation". Tumor-educated platelets (TEPs) offer potential as biomarkers due to their ability to reflect cancer heterogeneity and facilitate less invasive diagnostic approaches. This study aims to identify TEP-related prognostic biomarkers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to construct and validate a multigene prognostic model by integrating platelet transcriptomic data with tumor tissue datasets. METHODS: We performed comprehensive analysis of gene expression datasets obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) repositories to characterize transcriptomic differences among lung cancer specimens, normal tissue samples, and TEPs. Using R software, we identified Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and subsequently applied a multi-stage analytical pipeline to TEP-associated DEGs, incorporating univariate Cox proportional hazards regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, multivariate Cox regression, and stepwise regression modeling to pinpoint genes with prognostic significance. These prognostically relevant genes served as the foundation for developing a risk stratification model. We computed individual risk scores across both training and validation cohorts, enabling patient stratification into high- and low-risk categories. Model robustness was assessed through internal cross-validation and external validation procedures, while predictive performance was quantified using risk calibration metrics and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: Through systematic bioinformatics screening, we identified a four-gene prognostic signature comprising NELL2, C4orf48, PRAM1, and KLHL35, which served as the foundation for developing our risk stratification algorithm. Rigorous internal cross-validation and external cohort validation substantiated the moderate predictive performance of this signature. Comprehensive clinicopathological correlation analysis revealed that elevated risk indices, advanced pathological staging (stage III-IV), increased primary tumor dimensions, regional lymph node metastasis, and distant organ dissemination each demonstrated statistically significant associations with diminished overall survival (OS) outcomes in lung cancer patients. The clinical nomogram exhibited acceptable calibration, with calibration plots showing reasonable concordance between predicted and observed survival probabilities across all time points. Discriminative capacity assessment via time-dependent ROC analysis yielded area under the curve (AUC) values consistently surpassing 0.6, confirming moderate prognostic discrimination. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that our integrated multi-gene model conferred potential net clinical benefit compared to individual prognostic variables across the full spectrum of clinically relevant threshold probabilities (0-1 range), thereby establishing its potential utility for risk-informed clinical decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified NELL2, C4orf48, PRAM1, and KLHL35 as candidate TEP-related prognostic biomarkers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The developed prognostic model shows preliminary potential for patient stratification, but its clinical application, particularly as a platelet-based liquid biopsy tool, requires further validation in independent TEP-based cohorts.

Tumor-educated platelets (TEPs)↗

PubMed2026

Development of m6A-related prognostic models for survival in lung squamous cell carcinoma with different PD-L1 expression levels.

BACKGROUND: Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) is widely used in the clinical context of immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy, but its relationship with N6-methyladenosine (m6A) RNA methylation in lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) has not been well defined. This study aimed to investigate the association between PD-L1 messenger RNA (mRNA) expression and m6A regulator expression patterns and to develop exploratory m6A-based prognostic models in LUSC. METHODS: Transcriptome data from 502 patients with LUSC were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Patients were divided into PD-L1 high-expression (PHE) and PD-L1 low-expression (PLE) groups according to the median PD-L1 mRNA level. Differential expression and correlation analyses were performed for 30 m6A regulators. Transcriptome sequencing data from surgical specimens from 28 Asian patients with LUSC were used for expression-pattern comparison. Principal component analysis (PCA), univariate Cox regression, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-Cox regression were used to construct prognostic models in the TCGA cohort. RESULTS: In the TCGA cohort, the main differentially expressed m6A regulators between the two PD-L1 groups were YTHDF2 (P<0.001), IGF2BP3 (P<0.001), and YTHDC2 (P<0.001). In the Asian cohort, ALKBH5 (P=0.008) and ZC3H13 (P=0.03) showed significant differences. LASSO-Cox models were constructed for the overall LUSC cohort and for the PHE and PLE subgroups. The overall model included METTL3, HNRNPC, and CBLL1, with a 5-year time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.579. The 5-year AUCs were 0.742 in the PHE subgroup and 0.652 in the PLE subgroup. The risk score remained independently associated with prognosis in multivariate Cox analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In LUSC, PD-L1 mRNA status was associated with distinct m6A regulator expression profiles. In the TCGA cohort, the PHE subgroup showed higher expression of CBLL1, G3BP1, IGF2BP3, FMR1, and YTHDC2, but lower expression of VIRMA, YTHDF2, and PRRC2A compared with the PLE subgroup. In the National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CICAMS) cohort, ALKBH5 and ZC3H13 were more highly expressed in the PHE subgroup. Moreover, m6A-based risk models were associated with survival outcomes, with significant prognostic separation in the overall TCGA cohort and the PHE subgroup, whereas the PLE subgroup showed a weaker survival separation.

Lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC)↗

PubMed2026

GCH1, identified by a ferroptosis-related prognostic model, contributes to progression and drug resistance of esophageal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Esophageal cancer has a poor prognosis and limited treatment options. Ferroptosis, an iron-dependent cell death pathway, is a promising therapeutic target; however, its significance in esophageal cancer remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigated the prognostic significance of ferroptosis-related genes in esophageal cancer and identified a key functional regulator that may serve as a therapeutic target. METHODS: We analyzed ferroptosis-related gene expression profiles with The Cancer Genome Atlas-Esophageal Carcinoma (TCGA-ESCA) cohort and constructed a prognostic risk model using LASSO Cox regression analysis. Among the genes in this model, GTP cyclohydrolase 1 (GCH1) was selected for functional investigation, based on its established role in antioxidant defense. Subsequently, in vitro experiments were performed to assess the effects of GCH1 knockdown on cell proliferation, migration, clonogenicity, and ferroptosis-related biochemical indicators. The role of GCH1 in antitumor immunity was evaluated through co-culture of esophageal cancer cells with activated T cells, and drug sensitivity was assessed using cytotoxicity assays. RESULTS: A prognostic model consisting of nine ferroptosis-related genes (STC2, TRIB3, HMGB3, CXCL8, GCH1, PARP10, APOE, MTIM, and GPER1) with reliable risk stratification was constructed. The prognostic model could reflect the differences in drug responses and immune cell infiltration. GCH1 knockdown suppressed esophageal cancer cell proliferation, migration, and clonogenicity. Furthermore, GCH1 knockdown increased the intracellular levels of reactive oxygen species, lipid peroxidation, and ferrous iron (Fe2+). Co-culture assays demonstrated that GCH1 knockdown in tumor cells increased the production of granzyme B and interferon-γ by CD8+ T cells. Moreover, GCH1 silencing sensitized esophageal cancer cells to both sorafenib and cisplatin. CONCLUSIONS: This study established a ferroptosis-related prognostic model for esophageal cancer and identified GCH1 as a critical regulator that contributes to esophageal cancer progression and drug resistance. These findings suggest that targeting GCH1 may be a promising strategy to improve drug sensitivity and clinical outcomes in esophageal cancer.

Esophageal cancer↗

PubMed2025

Liver cancer-specific prognostic model developed using endoplasmic reticulum stress-related LncRNAs and LINC01011 as a potential therapeutic target.

Liver cancer is a serious malignancy worldwide, and long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been implicated in its prognosis.It remains unclear how lncRNAs related to endoplasmic reticulum stress (ERS) influence liver cancer prognosis. Here, we analyzed RNA and clinical data from the Cancer Genome Atlas and sourced ERS-related genes from the Molecular Signatures Database. Co-expression analysis identified ERS-related lncRNAs, and Cox regression analysis as well as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression highlighted three lncRNAs for a prognostic model. Based on median risk scores, we classified patients into two risk groups. The high-risk group displayed poor prognosis, and this finding was validated in the test set. According to consistency clustering, the patients were assigned to two clusters, and tumor microenvironment scores were computed. Patients with a high mutation burden had worse outcomes. Furthermore, immune infiltration analysis indicated more immune cells and mutations in checkpoint molecules among high-risk individuals. Drug sensitivity varied between the risk groups. LINC01011 was selected for functional assays. Colony formation assay and CCK-8 assay revealed that silencing LINC01011 suppressed liver cancer cell proliferation. Transwell and scratch assays indicated that silencing LINC01011 inhibited liver cancer cell migration. Western blotting assay revealed that inhibiting LINC01011 induced apoptosis and simultaneously inhibited epithelial-mesenchymal transition. These findings confirm the validity of the prognostic model and indicate that LINC01011 could serve as a potential research target.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Integrating single-cell transcriptomics to construct an oncogene-driven prognostic model and elucidate metabolic-immune crosstalk in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths, its progression and treatment heterogeneity are mainly influenced by driver gene and tumor micro-environment (TME) interactions. Nevertheless, the mechanisms of this process at the single-cell level remain unclear. This study integrated TCGA and multi-center single-cell transcriptome data to identify a 575 genes HCC-specific core set, developing a single-cell "oncogene scoring" system to quantify individual carcinogenic activity. This score is significantly elevated in malignant and proliferative T cells and is closely associated with metabolic reprogramming, aberrant cell‒cell communication, and immunosuppressive phenotypes. Based on these characteristics, we constructed a machine learning-based Random Survival Forest (RSF) prognostic model validated in multiple independent cohorts, which classifies patients into distinct risk subtypes. The high-risk group exhibits genomic instability, increased tumor stemness, and immune evasion, while the low-risk group was more sensitive to drugs such as sorafenib. This study highlights the potential pathways by which high oncogenic activity is associated with HCC progression, suggesting a profound link with single-cell metabolic‒immune crosstalk. The constructed RSF model offers a promising computational framework for risk stratification and provides hypothesis-generating insights that may inform future personalized treatment strategies for HCC patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma↗

PubMed2026

Prognostic modeling of overall survival in metastatic pancreatic cancer: an inflammation-based tool validated in PANTHEIA-SEOM cohort.

PURPOSE: To develop and internally validate the PANTHEIA-SIRI prognostic model, which integrates log-transformed systemic inflammation response index (SIRI) with clinical predictors, to estimate overall survival (OS) in metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC) treated with first-line chemotherapy. METHODS: We used data from the multicenter PANTHEIA-SEOM registry. OS was defined from chemotherapy start. The model was fitted as a Weibull accelerated failure time model in the survival-analysis population with multiple imputation. Predictors were log-transformed baseline SIRI, modeled with restricted cubic splines, ECOG, tumor burden, chemotherapy regimen, and anorexia-cachexia syndrome. Internal validation used a separate, non-overlapping cohort from the same registry; the centers contributing to each cohort are listed in a supplementary annex. TRIPOD was followed. Discrimination was assessed with Harrell´s C-index and calibration with IPCW Brier scores and IPA. RESULTS: The derivation cohort comprised 672 patients with SIRI data (593 analyzed for survival) across 22 Spanish hospitals (2015-2025); 80.1% had died after a median OS of 9.9 months. The imputation-pooled derivation C-index was 0.654 (95% CI, 0.627-0.681); optimism-corrected, 0.629. Internal validation used 62 separate patients from the same registry; 96.8% had died after a median OS of 9.2 months. The validation C-index was 0.603 (95% CI, 0.518-0.687). Calibration was adequate at 6 and 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: The PANTHEIA-SIRI model provides individualized OS estimates in mPDAC with routine clinical predictors. Its open-access calculator ( https://pantheia-siri.shinyapps.io/calc/ ) may support prognostic communication, treatment-intensity selection, and supportive-care planning. Routine clinical implementation will require further validation in larger, fully independent cohorts.

Cachexia↗

PubMed2026

Stratifying lung adenocarcinoma: a novel prognostic model based on mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization activity.

UNLABELLED: Mitochondrial outer membrane permeabilization (MOMP) is a core apoptotic regulatory event that dictates mitochondrial integrity, where full activation drives cell death and sublethal dysregulation contributes to tumor genomic instability. We used the Cancer Genome Atlas lung adenocarcinoma cohort (TCGA-LUAD) as the training cohort and the Gene Expression Omnibus dataset GSE42127 as the validation cohort to identify prognostic genes related to MOMP activity in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and to evaluate their potential biological significance. By intersecting MOMP-related genes with differentially expressed genes, combined with survival analysis, Mendelian randomization analysis, and 101 machine-learning algorithm combinations, seven prognostic genes, namely BIRC5, PSMD11, TNFRSF13C, YWHAZ, YWHAG, CYCS, and LTB, were identified. Next, an optimal prognostic model was constructed based on the gradient boosting machine (GBM) algorithm. Based on the risk score, LUAD patients were stratified into high- and low-risk groups, and patients in the high-risk group exhibited poorer overall survival in both the training and validation cohorts. Furthermore, a nomogram integrating the risk score and clinicopathological factors was developed and showed favorable predictive performance for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival. Meanwhile, functional and immune analyses revealed that the high-risk group was enriched in DNA replication-related pathways and demonstrated a higher tumor mutation burden (TMB). Correlation analysis indicated that TNFRSF13C was positively correlated with activated B cells, whereas BIRC5 was negatively correlated with eosinophils, suggesting that MOMP-related genes might be involved in remodeling the immune microenvironment of LUAD. Drug sensitivity analysis showed differences in predicted half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) values between the risk groups, suggesting the potential value of this model in assisting therapeutic stratification. Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) further identified T lymphocytes as a key cell type, with numerous prognostic genes exhibiting differential expression in T cells or dynamic changes during differentiation. We suggest that the MOMP-related signature established in this study may provide a reference for prognostic stratification in LUAD and offers candidate prognostic genes for subsequent experimental and clinical validation. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s13205-026-05058-6.

Lung adenocarcinoma↗

PubMed2026

Development and validation of a comprehensive prognostic model for 28-day ICU mortality in non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage: an analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database.

BACKGROUND: Due to the complex pathophysiology of non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH), accurate risk prediction remains a challenge. Our aim is to develop and validate a comprehensive prognostic model that integrates demographic characteristics, vital signs, laboratory parameters, and more, to provide clinical decision-making support in real-world practice. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 785 Non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage patients. The cohort was randomly divided into a training set (n = 549) and a validation set (n = 236). Feature selection was performed using LASSO regression, followed by backward stepwise Cox regression for optimization. A nomogram was constructed based on independent predictive factors, and model performance was assessed using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis. To prevent immortal-time bias, all predictors were anchored to a fixed early (first-24-hour) measurement window, treatment variables were modelled as binary indicators rather than cumulative exposures, and a five-model sensitivity analysis with baseline-severity adjustment was performed. RESULTS: The development of our model followed a systematic approach: first, 15 potential predictive factors were selected via LASSO regression, which were then refined to 12 independent predictors using backward stepwise Cox regression. The final predictive factors included: Ventilation, AHT, Nimodipine 60 mg, Age, SAPS.II, Input amount, Calcium total, Platelet count, White blood cells, Anion gap, pH, and Chloride. The integrated model demonstrated excellent predictive ability for 7-day, 14-day, and 21-day mortality in both the training set (AUC: 0.972, 0.934, 0.898) and the validation set (AUC: 0.968, 0.948, 0.911). Calibration curves and decision curve analysis confirmed the model's reliability and clinical utility across different time points. We constructed a nomogram for individualized risk prediction. Univariate Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated significant stratification of survival outcomes by each predictor, while restricted cubic spline analysis revealed non-linear relationships between continuous variables and mortality risk. Random survival forest analysis identified the top three predictive factors (Nimodipine 60 mg, Ventilation, AHT) and compared them with our full 12-variable model, confirming superior performance of the integrated model at all time points. At the 28-day primary endpoint, the model achieved a time-dependent AUC of 0.898 (training) and 0.904 (validation); after restricting predictors to the early baseline window, the leakage-controlled model retained good discrimination (validation C-index 0.803). CONCLUSIONS: Our ICU 28-day mortality prognosis model demonstrated robust performance in predicting ICU 28-day mortality in non-traumatic subarachnoid hemorrhage. The model, through the nomogram, provides individualized risk assessment, aiding clinical decision-making and patient stratification.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

Development and validation of a machine learning prognostic model based on an epigenomic signature in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: In Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (PDAC), current prognostic scores are unable to fully capture the biological heterogeneity of the disease. While some approaches investigating the role of multi-omics in PDAC are emerging, the analysis of methylation data is under exploited. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed CpG sites from two publicly available datasets, the TCGA-PAAD used as discovery set and the CPTAC-PDA as external test set. Single mutations and co-mutation of KRAS and TP53 genes were identified as targets, and differentially methylated CpG sites (DMC) were detected accordingly. We trained and validated Random Forest (RF) models to predict each target. Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) and Area Under the Precision-Recall curve (AUPRC) were used as performance metrics. Then, we performed consensus clustering from the DMCs to identify novel patients' profiles. Finally, we trained and validated a combination of eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and tree models to select an epigenomic prognostic determinant. RESULTS: From 598 DMCs extracted, an RF model predicted KRAS and TP53 co-mutation on the external test set with AUROC of 0.77 and AUPRC of 0.87. The consensus clustering allowed us to identify 4 clusters (C1, C2, C3, and C4) of patients. The C4 cluster captured a subgroup of patients with favorable Overall Survival (OS) with respect to others. The XGB model perfectly predicted C4 vs other clusters on the discovery set. In both cohorts, patients were stratified into two risk groups according to methylation levels of cg16854533, individuated as the most important CpG site. CONCLUSION: We analyzed methylation data to develop a classifier for the TP53 and KRAS mutational status. Four prognostic clusters were pointed out and a prognostic model using a CpG site was validated in an independent cohort. Our results evidence that the proposed use of methylation data facilitates risk stratification for PDAC.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

Construction and accuracy assessment of an efferocytosis-related prognostic model for ovarian cancer: A diagnostic accuracy study.

The study aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of efferocytosis-related genes in ovarian cancer (OC) with regard to cancer development, progression, invasion, and metastasis. OC cohorts were assembled from bioinformatics repositories. Utilizing consensus clustering analysis, distinct clusters were delineated based on the intersection of OC-related genes and efferocytosis-related genes. A prognostic signature specific to efferocytosis in OC was developed using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas, validated against the gene expression omnibus database, and subjected to independent prognostic analysis. Subsequently, a nomogram model was formulated. Moreover, investigations encompassed the immune microenvironment, immunotherapy, mutation profiling, drug sensitivity assessments, drug prediction models, and molecular docking analyses. Finally, quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) assays were employed to ascertain the mRNA expression levels of key genes. Five key genes, FCGBP, BTN3A3, WDR91, SLC25A45, and BTNL3, were identified as significantly associated with OC. Both datasets and qRT-PCR demonstrated elevated expression levels of FCGBP and WDR91 in OC. Notably, AFLATOXIN B1 exhibited strong binding affinity to SLC25A45, ciclopirox to BTN3A3, and irinotecan to WDR91. The risk score, age, and stage were identified as independent prognostic factors, with the nomogram displaying efficacy in predicting OC patient survival. Variations in the immune cell infiltration profiles, including naive B cells, and expression levels of 6 immune checkpoint genes, such as CTLA4, were notable. High tumor mutation burden scores were associated with improved survival outcomes. Additionally, significant differences in the IC50 values of 123 anticancer drugs were observed between the 2 risk groups. This findings of this study highlight the efficacy of the efferocytosis-associated risk model in predicting the survival outcomes of OC patients, thus providing a novel reference for prognostic prediction in OC patients.

Humans↗