PubMed Health⌕ Search

SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “Risk stratification”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Present and future role of ambulatory Holter monitoring for arrhythmia risk stratification.

Risk stratification for arrhythmogenic events and sudden death in patients with organic heart disease, particularly those with coronary heart disease and a history of MI, continues to be one of the major tasks of clinical cardiologists, although advanced management strategies including thrombolysis, acute PTCA and surgical intervention dramatically reduced the percentage of sudden deaths following acute MIs, Noninvasive studies like resting and exercise ECG, echocardiography, signal averaging, 24-hour ECG, and radionuclide studies, as well as invasive techniques such as electrophysiologically programmed electrostimulation and coronary angiography, are being used routinely. Ambulatory Holter monitoring is an established noninvasive technique for risk stratification. There is evidence showing that its predictive potential for arrhythmogenic risks is enhanced, if more than one parameter is analyzed. Absence of ST segment changes and a normal HRV are the parameters signaling out low-risk patients. The use of additional parameters which escape electrocardiographic recording, like ventricular function and myocardial ischemia, improve the accuracy of predicting arrhythmogenic events. The most predictive combination of risk parameters is, however, still poorly understood. Future research should define normal ranges of parameters recordable by H-ECG, solve technical problems of recording data and analyzing them. In addition, the accuracy of measuring QT duration and documenting late potentials should be improved by more sophisticated methods. But it is unrealistic to expect that the QT interval will become amenable to automatic analysis in all patients. A fully automatic QT analysis without visually checking the measuring points at the tip and the end of the T wave for their consistency is hardly conceivable. The documentation of late potentials, in turn, is limited by artefacts caused by muscle contraction during physical activity. Clinical aspects, e.g., the predictability of arrhythmogenic events in patients with cardiomyopathies and valvular disease should be addressed. This will require studies combining the predictive potentials of rhythmologic and hemodynamic data.

Arrhythmias, Cardiac↗

Managing patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery: need to shift emphasis from risk stratification to risk modification.

Many patients undergo non-invasive testing for the detection of coronary artery disease before non-cardiac surgery. This is despite the low predictive value of positive tests in this population and the lack of any evidence of benefit of coronary revascularisation before non-cardiac surgical procedures. Further, this strategy often triggers a clinical cascade exposing the patient to progressively riskier testing and intervention and results in increased costs and unnecessary delays. On the other hand, administration of beta blockers, and more recently statins, has been shown to reduce the occurrence of perioperative ischaemic events. Therefore, there is a need for a shift in emphasis from risk stratification by non-invasive testing to risk modification by the application of interventions, which prevent perioperative ischaemia--principally, perioperative beta adrenergic blockade and perhaps treatment with statins. Clinical risk stratification tools reliably identify patients at high risk of perioperative ischaemic events and can guide in the appropriate use of perioperative medical treatment.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗

Cardiac risk stratification for high-risk vascular surgery.

BACKGROUND: The best strategy for cardiac risk assessment before high-risk vascular surgery remains controversial. A cardiac risk stratification protocol was evaluated in patients undergoing high-risk vascular surgery. Our investigation paralleled the elaboration of the American College of Cardiology/ American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Guidelines for Perioperative Cardiovascular Evaluation for Noncardiac Surgery and is highly comparable to the proposed guidelines. METHODS AND RESULTS: A cardiac risk stratification protocol was evaluated prospectively in 203 patients scheduled for aortic surgery. Key points of the study were cardiac mortality/morbidity and cost-effectiveness. Patients were stratified into low (n = 101), intermediate (n = 79), and high (n = 23) cardiac risk after clinical predictors. After stratification, the degree of estimated functional capacity assessed by treadmill exercise and daily living activities and expressed by metabolic equivalents (METs) was critical for further cardiac evaluation. In intermediate-risk patients with an estimated functional capacity < 5 METs and in all high-risk patients, noninvasive cardiac testing and/or subsequent medical care were performed. Noninvasive testing was considered necessary in 41 patients, coronary angiography in 7, and myocardial revascularization in 1. Overall hospital mortality was 3.5%. Cardiac mortality and morbidity were 1% and 12.4%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac risk stratification for high-risk vascular surgery patients, according to a protocol similar to the ACC/AHA Guidelines for Cardiovascular Evaluation for Noncardiac Surgery, demonstrated excellent clinical outcome. This approach appears to be a safe and economical strategy for preoperative cardiac evaluation.

Aorta↗

Defining high risk prostate cancer--where do we set the bar? A translational science approach to risk stratification.

PURPOSE: Risk stratification is commonly used in patients with prostate cancer but this effort has had no demonstrable effect on patient decision making for initial therapy. We propose new risk strata for clinically localized prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We examined current stratification methods for prostate cancer and their impact on prostate cancer therapy. RESULTS: Three risk strata for patients with clinically localized prostate cancer are proposed. Stratum 1 includes patients in whom active surveillance is associated with a low risk of disease progression. Stratum 2 includes patients in whom monotherapy, including external beam, interstitial radiotherapy or radical prostatectomy, is generally successful. Stratum 3 includes patients at high risk for recurrence with monotherapy in whom multimodal therapy may be superior. CONCLUSIONS: Risk stratification systems for prostate cancer should harmonize the needs of researchers to develop comparable groupings of patients, of patients who seek guidance on optimal therapy and of clinical trialists who seek to advance therapy for this disease. Our new stratification system provides such a structure.

Decision Making↗

Usefulness of hospital admission risk stratification for predicting nonfatal acute myocardial infarction or death six months later in unstable angina pectoris. RESCATE Study Group. Resources Used in Acute Coronary Syndromes and Delays in Treatment.

The aim of this study was to assess the clinical course of unstable angina and the prognostic value of clinical and electrocardiographic variables measured during admission in a prospective, multicenter cohort study with 6-month follow-up. The population corresponds to 4 general teaching hospitals in Catalonia, Spain. The clinical course was analyzed in 839 consecutive patients aged up to 80 years with primary unstable angina, without myocardial infarction or previous coronary bypass. The main outcome measures were cardiac mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Patients involved in the present analysis belonged to the Resources Used in Acute Coronary Syndromes and Delays in Treatment (RESCATE) study. Six-month overall mortality, cardiac mortality, and nonfatal myocardial infarction rates were 4.6%, 4.1%, and 3.9%, respectively. Six-month cardiac mortality or myocardial infarction rate did not differ among clinical forms of presentation. Peripheral artery disease (RR 3.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.88 to 6.50, p = 0.0001), ST-T-wave electrocardiographic changes on admission (RR 2.22, 95% CI 1.13 to 4.36, p = 0.0203), and age >65 years (RR 1.74, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.91, p = 0.0356) independently predicted 6-month cardiac mortality or nonfatal myocardial infarction. Their positive predictive values were 21%, 10%, and 11%, respectively, whereas their negative predictive value was > or = 93% in all cases. Prevalences were 9%, 70%, and 41%, respectively. In this prospective study, patients with unstable angina without prior myocardial infarction have a relatively low, although not negligible, 6-month severe complication rate. Stratification risk can easily be established with clinical and electrocardiographic characteristics measured during admission. Their absence almost rules out future adverse events, while their presence does not necessarily imply bad prognosis.

Adult↗

Cardiac risk stratification in patients with congestive heart failure: a catecholamines-beta-adrenoceptor-cAMP pathway.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the stratification risk of catecholamines-beta-adrenoceptor (beta-AR)-cAMP pathway for cardiogenic death events in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). METHODS: A total of 83 identified CHF patients with a baseline and follow-up plasma levels of norepinephrine (NE) and epinephrine (E), lymphocytes beta-AR density (Bmax), and intralymphocyte cAMP content in peripheral blood were followed up. Major cardiogenic death events were registered. RESULTS: The period between the initial entry and the last follow-up measurement were 51 +/- 16 months, the total duration of clinical follow-up after the last measurement were 14 +/- 8 months. During follow-up, 39 patients died of cardiogenic (sudden death 17 patients, worsening heart failure 22 patients). Persistence of high NE, E, and cAMP from baseline to follow-up were confirmed as risk predicting factors of cardiovascular events. Persistence NE above 4.0 nmol/L, E above 3.5 nmol/L, and the intralymphocyte cAMP content above 3.5 pmd x mg(-1) x pro(-1) from baseline to follow-up were significant adverse prognostic predictors. The major cardiogenic death events rates per 100 patients-years were 1.33 and 4.82 in patients with NE below and above 4.0 nmol/L (HR: 2.91; 95% CI: 1.08-7.33; P = 0.015); were 1.42 and 4.36 in the patients with E levels below and above 3.5 nmol/L (HR: 2.64; 95% CI: 1.02-6.41; P = 0.019); were 1.81 and 4.67 in the patients with the intralymphocyte cAMP content below and above 3.5 pmd x mg(-1) x pro(-1) (HR: 2.79; 95% CI: 1.04-6.83; P = 0.017), but difference was not significant between the beta-AR density below and above median. CONCLUSIONS: Persistent increase in circulating catecholamines and intralymphocyte cAMP content may increase the long-term mortality in CHF patients.

Aged↗

The value of dipyridamole echocardiography in risk stratification before vascular surgery. A multicenter study. The EPIC (Echo Persantine International Study) Group--Subproject: Risk Stratification Before Major Vascular Surgery.

PURPOSE: Patients undergoing major vascular surgery are at relatively high risk of cardiac events, and pharmacological stress echocardiography is increasingly used for peri-operative risk stratification. PATIENTS AND METHODS: One hundred and twenty-one patients undergoing vascular surgery (age 65 +/- 7 years) were studied by dipyridamole echocardiography testing in six different centres. Of the total 136 patients, 15 were subsequently excluded because surgery was either cancelled (n = 8) or postponed pending cardiac revascularization (n = 7) because of the presence of a 'high-risk' stress echo response (identified 'a priori' as a positive dipyridamole echocardiography testing with a dipyridamole-time < 5 min and/or a peak wall motion score index > 2, upon scoring each segment from 1 = normal to 4 = dyskinetic in an 11-segment model). RESULTS: No major complications occurred during dipyridamole echocardiography testing. Technically adequate images were obtained in all patients; however, in one patient only the low dipyridamole dose (56 mg.kg-1 over 4 min) was given to limit side effects. Of the 121 patients undergoing surgery 28 (23%) had a positive test. Peri-operative events occurred in nine patients (8%): two deaths, two myocardial infarctions, five cases of unstable angina. Sensitivity and specificity of dipyridamole echocardiography testing for predicting cardiac events were 78% and 81%, respectively, with a positive predictive value of 25% and a negative predictive value of 98%. Dipyridamole echocardiography testing effectively singled out patients with, from those without, events, but neither clinical parameters, such as Detsky score, nor baseline echo parameters, such as resting wall motion score index or ejection fraction were able to distinguish between such patients. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, dipyridamole echocardiography testing is safe and well tolerated in patients undergoing major vascular surgery, and provides an effective pre-operative screening test for risk stratification of these patients mainly due to the extremely high negative predictive value. Stress echocardiography is a better discriminator than clinical and rest echocardiographic variables.

Aged↗

Risk stratification by guidelines compared with risk assessment by risk equations applied to a MONICA sample.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) Hypertension Guidelines from 1999 propose a risk stratification scheme for estimating absolute risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Risk equations estimated by statistical methods are another way of predicting cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVE: We studied the differences between these two approaches when applied to the same set of individuals with high blood pressure. DESIGN AND METHODS: The two northernmost counties in Sweden (NSW) constitute one of the centres in the WHO MONICA (monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular disease) Project. Three population surveys have been carried out in 1986, 1990 and 1994, and were used to estimate a risk equation for predicting the 10-year risk of fatal/non-fatal stroke and myocardial infarction. Another MONICA sample from 1999, a total of 5997 subjects, was classified according to the recent WHO/ISH risk stratification scheme. A risk assessment was also performed, by using the risk equations from the NSW MONICA sample and Framingham risk equations. RESULTS: The agreement between the two methods was good when the values obtained from the risk equation were averaged for each risk group obtained from the risk classification by guidelines. However, if the predicted risk for each individual was considered, the agreement was poor for the medium and high-risk groups. Although the average risk for all individuals is the same, many subjects have a higher risk or a lower risk than predicted by guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Risk classification by the 1999 WHO/ISH Hypertension Guidelines is not accurate and detailed enough for medium- and high-risk patients, which could be of clinical importance in the medium risk group.

Adult↗

Preoperative risk stratification identifies low-risk candidates for early extubation after aortocoronary bypass grafting.

Early tracheal extubation has been the focus of recent attempts to accelerate the care of patients after aortocoronary bypass. Following the 1994 validation of a preoperative mortality risk mode based on the Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Cardiac Surgery Database, we examined the records of 328 aortocoronary bypass patients from our institution and identified 133 patients with low preoperative mortality risk. Their records were then analyzed for duration of tracheal intubation. One low-risk patient who did not survive was excluded from the analysis. Of the remaining 132 patients, 108 experienced no postoperative complications; nevertheless, 50 of these were intubated longer than 10 hours despite freedom from complications. In a 2nd group of 153 consecutive low-risk patients, we prospectively implemented a patient care protocol that designated low-risk patients as eligible for accelerated weaning. Compared were the 1st group, these patients with low preoperative mortality risk were weaned from mechanical ventilation in 40% less time. Thus, we found that low preoperative mortality risk predicts success in early tracheal extubation. Risk stratification appears to be a simple and useful means of identifying patients least likely to encounter postoperative complications. Risk-based accelerated recovery was successfully implemented without requiring a change in anesthetic or surgical management.

Coronary Artery Bypass↗

Combined assessment of left ventricular perfusion and function by gated single-photon emission computed tomography for the risk stratification of high-risk hypertensive patients.

OBJECTIVE: This study was aimed at verifying whether combined information on left ventricular perfusion and function by electrocardiogram-gated single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) retains its known prognostic value in patients with systemic hypertension. METHODS: A total of 415 hypertensive patients underwent rest and stress (exercise in 278 and dipyridamole in 137) gated 99mTc-sestamibi SPECT and prospective follow-up for the composite endpoint of death and acute coronary syndrome. Patients undergoing revascularization were censored. The individual effect of clinical and stress imaging data on outcome was evaluated by Cox regression analysis. Model validation was performed using bootstrap methods adjusted by the degree of optimism in estimates. Survival analysis was performed using the product-limit Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 24 months, 12 cardiac deaths and 32 acute coronary syndromes occurred. After adjusting for the most significant covariates, age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.62, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-2.57], diabetes (HR 7.51, 95% CI 1.61-35.2), summed stress score (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.07-4), and peak end-systolic volume (HR 3.62, 95% CI 1.35-9.69) were multivariable predictors of outcome. The normal perfusion pattern was associated with a low event rate independently of peak end-systolic volume. Conversely, in the case of moderate to severe perfusion abnormalities, a peak end-systolic volume greater than 74 ml was able to identify an increased risk of adverse outcome. Moreover, peak end-systolic volume was significantly higher among patients who died of a cardiac cause compared with those with different outcomes. CONCLUSION: A combined assessment of left ventricular perfusion and function by gated SPECT significantly improves risk stratification in hypertensive patients.

Aged↗

Cardiovascular risk stratification and cardiovascular risk factors associated with erectile dysfunction: assessing cardiovascular risk in men with erectile dysfunction.

Cardiovascular risk factors are known to be associated with the presence of erectile dysfunction (ED), and ED is more common in men with cardiovascular disease (CVD). The Princeton Guidelines provide a strategy for assessing cardiac risk and planning a safe return to sexual activity. Men at low risk, who have fewer than three cardiac risk factors, can resume intercourse with very little concern for an untoward cardiac event. Men at high risk need to have their primary disease controlled, and should be stabilized before planning to resume sexual activity. Prior to resuming intercourse, men in the indeterminate category are candidates for restratification as either low or high risk. Certain cardiovascular risk factors may be predictors of ED: most notably, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes. Advancing age is also a strong predictor of ED. The close correlation between ED and CVD is a signal to evaluate the sexual histories of all men who present for cardiovascular evaluation and, perhaps, of all men in general. Early detection of ED may allow for early diagnosis and management of CVD and diabetes.

Aging↗

Sequential risk stratification using TIMI risk score and TIMI flow grade among patients treated with fibrinolytic therapy for ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction.

In the setting of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score (TRS) and indexes of epicardial and myocardial perfusion are associated with mortality. The association between TRS at presentation and angiographic indexes of epicardial and myocardial perfusion after reperfusion therapy has not been investigated. We hypothesized that TRS, TIMI flow grade (TFG), and TIMI myocardial perfusion grade (TMPG) would provide independent prognostic information and that angiographic indexes of poor flow and perfusion would be associated with a higher TRS. TRS and angiographic data were evaluated in 3,801 patients from the TIMI 4, 10A, 10B, 14, 20, 23, and 24 trials. Within each TRS stratum (TRS 0 to 2, 3 to 4, >/=5), 30-day mortality increased stepwise among patients with impaired TFG at 60 minutes after fibrinolytic administration. In a multivariate model adjusting for the TRS strata, impaired TMPG (0/1) was independently associated with higher mortality (odds ratio 2.28, p = 0.018). In a multivariate model adjusting for the TFG and infarct location, the likelihood of impaired TMPG (0/1) was greater among intermediate-risk (TRS 3 to 4) and high-risk (TRS >/=5) patients than among low-risk (TRS 0 to 2) patients (odds ratio 1.43, p = 0.019 and 1.50, p = 0.055, respectively). Thus, impaired epicardial flow and myocardial perfusion are independently associated with increased 30-day mortality among patients identified by TRS as high risk, although there is no synergism between either TFG or TMPG and TRS. High TRS at presentation is associated with abnormal myocardial perfusion, even after adjusting for possible confounders.

Aged↗

Improved risk stratification for biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy using a novel risk group system based on prostate specific antigen density and biopsy Gleason score.

PURPOSE: Previous studies have suggested that prostate specific antigen (PSA) density is a significant independent predictor of biochemical failure after primary therapy. We determined whether pathological PSA density using surgical weight of the radical prostatectomy specimen was an independent predictor of adverse pathological features or biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy. We also examined whether combining pathological PSA density with biopsy Gleason score improved risk stratification compared with serum PSA and biopsy Gleason score for predicting PSA recurrence after prostatectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Multivariate analysis was used to determine whether pathological PSA density was an independent predictor of adverse pathology or PSA recurrence after radical prostatectomy in 325 patients treated at a Veterans Affairs medical center. Cutoff points of pathological PSA density were generated to identify patients at various risks for biochemical recurrence. These cutoffs were combined with biopsy Gleason cutoff points 2 to 6, 7 and 8 to 10 to generate a risk stratification system that was compared with a previous risk stratification system using PSA and biopsy Gleason score cutoff points. The validity of the risk stratification system using pathological PSA density and biopsy Gleason score was evaluated in another cohort of 490 patients treated with radical prostatectomy at a tertiary care medical center. RESULTS: Pathological PSA density was an independent predictor of positive surgical margins (p <0.001), nonorgan confined disease (p <0.001), seminal vesicle invasion (p = 0.003) and biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy (p <0.001). The cutoff points for pathological PSA density of less than 0.3, 0.3 to 0.7 and greater than 0.7 ng./ml./gm. separated patients into 3 distinct groups at increasing risk for biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy (p <0.001). Pathological PSA density cutoffs combined with biopsy Gleason score cutoffs 2 to 6, 7 and 8 to 10 provided better risk stratification for biochemical failure than cutoffs based on a combination of PSA and biopsy Gleason score in patients treated at the Veterans Affairs (hazards ratio 3.04, confidence interval 2.25 to 4.11, p <0.001) and tertiary care (hazards ratio 2.38, confidence interval 1.78 to 3.18, p <0.001) medical centers. CONCLUSIONS: Pathological PSA density was a strong predictor of advanced pathology and biochemical failure after radical prostatectomy. Pathological PSA density combined with biopsy Gleason score defined a novel risk group system that improved risk stratification compared with a combination of PSA and biopsy Gleason score. These results were validated in another cohort of patients treated with radical prostatectomy at a tertiary care medical center. Further studies are required using PSA density values calculated from preoperative transrectal ultrasound measurements to determine whether a combination of PSA density and biopsy Gleason score provides significant pretreatment risk stratification.

Aged↗

[Risk stratification in heart surgery: do risk scores facilitate the determination of indications?].

Various risk scores have been developed for the assessment of operative risk in cardiac surgery. Although risk stratification has been acknowledged as a useful tool to analyze trends in therapy and changes in patient populations, its relevance in assessing the indication for surgery has been questioned. It was the goal of this prospective study to compare 6 common risk scores with regard to the predictive value for mortality in individual patients. Between September 1998 and February 1999 all adult patients undergoing heart surgery were prospectively scored according to the following scores: initial Parsonnet, Cleveland Clinic, French, Euro, Pons, and the Ontario Province Risk score. Early lethality was assessed within 30 days postoperatively. Follow-up was completed in 504 patients. With the exception of the Ontario Province Risk score, lethality in the high risk group was overestimated by all scores, whereas lethality in low to moderate risk groups was underestimated by several scores. Mean scores of surviving and deceased patients showed a broad overlap with high standard deviations. Preoperative risk scores are effective tools for stratification of patient populations and the analysis of surgical outcome. With the aid of risk scores, operative risk can be sufficiently predicted for patient populations or subpopulations. The Euro score best predicted the outcome of our patients. However, when the indication for surgery is to be determined in an individual patient, risk scores should be only considered as an orientation in the decision process.

Adult↗