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Prospects and programs for fertility reduction, 1990-2015.

What is the likelihood that each of the 37 developing countries with populations of 15 million or more in 1990 will reach replacement fertility by the year 2015? These countries have a combined population of 3.9 billion, 91 percent of the population of all developing countries. For this article, a composite index was used as the basis for predicting future levels of total fertility. The index was constructed from socioeconomic variables (life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rates, percent adult literacy, ratio of children enrolled in primary or secondary school, percent of the labor force in nonagricultural occupations, gross national product per capita, and percent of the population living in urban areas), total fertility rates for the years 1985-90, total fertility rate decline from 1960-65 to 1985-90, family planning program effort scores in 1989, and the level of contraceptive prevalence in 1990. Eight countries are classified as certain to reach replacement fertility by 2015, and an additional thirteen probably will also. Five countries are classified as possibly reaching replacement fertility, and eleven as unlikely to do so.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1991

A comparative clinical trial of the TCu 380A, Lippes Loop D and Multiload Cu 375 IUDs in Indonesia.

The Copper T 380A (TCu 380A), Lippes Loop D (LLD) and the Multiload Cu 375 (MLCu 375) IUDs were evaluated for safety and efficacy in a multicenter randomized clinical trial in Indonesia. A total of 2992 women were enrolled into the study and data for 2845 women were analyzed (147 cases did not meet protocol criteria). Although study IUDs were randomly assigned, LLD users in this study were older and of higher parity than TCu 380A and MLCu 375 users. The 24-month gross cumulative life-table pregnancy rates for TCu 380A, LLD and MLCu 375 users were 1.2, 2.2 and 2.7, respectively. The 24-month expulsion rates for TCu 380A, LLD and MLCu 375 users were 6.7, 7.5 and 5.3, respectively. Overall, 24-month continuation rates were 85.5%, 85.0% and 85.4% for the respective device groups. Differences in both gross and age- and parity-adjusted life-tables rates for the major outcome variables were not statistically significant at 24 months postinsertion. The study suggests that the TCu 380A, LLD and MLCu 375 IUDs seem to be safe and effective contraceptive options for Indonesian women.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1991

Fertility rates in 238 HIV-1-seropositive women in Zaire followed for 3 years post-partum.

Birth-control use and fertility rates were prospectively determined in 238 HIV-1-seropositive and 315 HIV-1-seronegative women in Kinshasa, Zaire, during the 36-month period following the delivery of their last live-born child. No women delivered children during the first follow-up year. Birth-control utilization rates (percentage use during total observation time) and fertility rates (annual number of live births per 1000 women of child-bearing age) in the second year of follow-up were 19% (107.4 per 1000) for HIV-1-seropositive women and 16% (144.7 per 1000) for HIV-1-seronegative women. In the third year of follow-up these rates were 26 (271.0 per 1000) and 16% (38.6 per 1000) for HIV-1-seropositive and HIV-1-seronegative women, respectively (P less than 0.05 for the difference in birth-control utilization and fertility rates between seropositive and seronegative women in the third year of follow-up). Seven (2.9%) of the 238 HIV-1-seropositive women initially included in the study brought their sex partners in for HIV-1 testing; three (43%) of these men were found to be HIV-1-seropositive. New HIV-1 infection did not have a dramatic effect on the fertility of seropositive women. The nearly uniform unwillingness of HIV-1-seropositive women to inform husbands or sexual partners of their HIV-1 serostatus accounted in large part for the disappointingly high fertility rates in seropositive women who had been provided with a comprehensive program of HIV counseling and birth control. Counseling services for seropositive women of child-bearing age which do not also include these women's sexual partners are unlikely to have an important impact on their high fertility rates.

AIDS-Related Complex↗