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Traffic safety campaigns often are ineffective to change driving behavior because they don't reach the target group or are recognized only by people who are already interested or concerned. The evaluation of a traffic safety campaign called "Leo Lässig", addressed to young new drivers, shows that recognition and acceptance by the target group were stimulated by the age-conform means of comic-strips.
Two models are presented, describing the development of traffic and traffic safety. Traffic volumes, measured by the total amount of vehicle kilometers per year, are expected to follow a sigmoid saturation curve over time. The logistic function is used to model this development. The fatality rate, the number of fatalities per vehicle kilometer, is chosen to measure safety. The (negative) exponential function is selected to model the fatality rates over time. It is argued that these two aspects of the traffic system are fundamental and that the development of the number of fatalities results by multiplication. Given this assumption, the fall in the number of fatalities, noticed in almost all developed countries after a steady increase until 1970, does not need a special explanation. It follows from the combination of the monotonically increasing traffic volumes and the monotonically decreasing fatality rates. The two parsimonious models fit the data fairly well for six developed countries. The parameters differ substantially between countries, but also show common features. It is found from the parameters of the logistic function, that for all countries the points of maximum increase in traffic volume coincide just after 1970, the moment of the energy crisis. It is concluded from this finding that the energy crisis was caused by the cumulating demands of the oil-consuming countries, resulting in a reaction of the oil-producing countries. From the parameters of the exponential function, it is found that there also is a common point of intersection for fatality rates around 1980. It is shown that the development of safety is directly related to the development of traffic. The ten-year delay is interpreted as the time necessary for planning and implementation of safety measures. Finally, a striking relation is found between the volume parameters and the fatality-rate parameters, suggesting that the number of fatalities is a function of the derivative of the amount of traffic in the mathematical sense.
Education is one of the strategies available to reduce traffic crashes and the resultant personal injury. It is seen by many as the major strategy for achieving lasting change. However, there is considerable debate as to the effectiveness of traffic safety education programs to date and, in an era when public expenditure is strongly influenced by the results of cost-benefit analyses, the more fundamental traffic safety education programs are under increasing challenge. The literature on effectiveness is indeed confusing. All too often, programs have commenced from a position of blind faith and have been implemented unsystematically, without specific objectives, targets, or evaluative milestones. The problem is compounded by the considerable methodological difficulties which confront the evaluators of long-term programs of behavior change. If traffic safety education is to survive as a viable countermeasure, program planning and execution must become far more scientific and evaluation must become an integral component. There is also an arguable case for the funds for the longer-term behavior change programs to come from the more general public health arena than from the narrower traffic safety field, while the short-term, specific educational programs should compete directly for funds with alternative traffic safety measures available for the given problem.
Using a simulation game designed to teach children to obey certain traffic safety rules, an experimental study was conducted with 136 five-year-old children in four Quebec schools. Within each classroom, subjects were randomly divided into four groups: three intervention groups and one control group. Each of the experimental groups was subjected to a different intervention with outcome measured using three instruments related to attitudes, behavior, and transfer of learning of pedestrian traffic safety. Results suggest that simulation games including role-playing/group dynamics and modeling/training can change attitudes and modify behavior in the area of pedestrian traffic safety in children of this age.
This paper describes models for traffic volumes and traffic safety. These models have a very simple mathematical form and consist of time parameters only. The first model assumes that fatality rates follow a negative exponential function. The second model assumes a logistic type of saturation model for traffic volumes. The models are applied to traffic volumes and fatality rates in the Netherlands, the United States, West Germany, and Great Britain. These applications show fairly good results. The agreement between the models and the data shows that linearity of the log-fatality rates and the log-volume rates turn out to be reasonable assumptions. Furthermore, a relation between the two models is suggested from the data that links safety outcomes to developments in traffic volume. From the models, predictions are made for traffic volume, fatality rates, and fatalities in the future on the basis of time parameters only.
The traffic system has a multi-layered hierarchical structure. Traffic accidents are a phenomena on the man-machine system located at the middle level of the hierarchy. Focusing on this holon (man-machine system), safety problems are reviewed in relation with the upper and lower systems interacting with this holon.
In this, and previous related papers, developments of traffic volumes and traffic safety are studied from a system-theoretic point of view. It was proved already that such an approach is effective and leads to new and interesting theoretical facts. Models for the description of long-term developments of traffic volumes and safety were established, and particular relations between both developments were found. One of these findings was, that the number of fatalities turned out to be a function of the derivative of the logistic function describing the development of the number of vehicle kilometres over the years. It was noted that the model deviations for the number of fatalities and the vehicle kilometres were not merely random, but also had systematic components. In the present paper these deviations were further investigated. For the Netherlands, it is clearly shown that the number of fatalities is a function of the derivative of the number of vehicle kilometres, but with a shift in time. The short-term deviations from this long-term development are also related to the derivative of the number of vehicle kilometres, but without a shift in time. For five other countries similar relations were found, although the description of the short-term fluctuations seems to be a bit more complicated. In general, it can be concluded that the system-theoretic approach turned out to be highly effective for the description of long-term and short-term developments in traffic volumes and safety. For the Netherlands up to 95% of the variance in fatalities can be "explained" by developments in traffic volumes alone. It is clearly demonstrated that, although it will be very difficult to single out effects of specific safety measures, the combined safety actions taken by a society are very effective in getting the safety factor under control. The most valuable fact that can be learned from this analysis is that, if increased developments in traffic volume occur or are predicted, the immediate safety effects can also be estimated. Therefore, anticipatory safety measures can be taken to cope with these effects before (or immediately after) the moment they appear, improving safety management at a more rational and preventive basis.
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During the 4-year period following a repeat driving under the influence (DUI) conviction, participants in 12-month treatment programs had worse overall traffic safety records than did recipients of license suspensions. The results from a series of analyses using repeated measures analysis of covariance showed that, in comparison with license-suspension recipients: (i) participants had significantly higher rates (70%) of nonalcohol-related accidents and convictions, (ii) participants had a significantly lower rate (9%) of alcohol-related convictions, but no difference was found on alcohol-related accidents, and (iii) participants had a significantly higher rate (30%) of total accidents (p less than .05). These results suggest that the use of license-suspension waiver as an incentive to participate in a drinking driver program had a negative impact on traffic safety. The predicted reductions in alcohol-related accidents among program participants did not occur, and reductions in nonalcohol-related accidents, which could have been achieved with license suspensions, were sacrificed. It was recommended that some other alternative besides license-suspension waivers be used as an inducement for repeat DUI offenders to participate in treatment.
An approach for measuring effects of policy schemes for improving marine traffic safety at channels is presented. Operational models involving traffic, channel, and ship characteristics are provided, and both collision and channel deviation risks of actual channels are quantified using them. Moreover, traffic control, speed regulation, and center line indication are considered as channel safety policies, and their effects are also measured using the models. The results suggest that the speed regulation scheme is effective in reducing accident risk in channels. It is concluded that methodology demonstrated and knowledge obtained in this study are useful for planning and safe operation of channels.
While a major response to the drinking-driving problem has been to increase penalties for drinking-driving offences, the impact of sentence severity on the driving behaviour of offenders (specific deterrence) remains unclear. In this research, relationships between aspects of sentence severity (license suspension, fine, jail term, assignment to probation, or temporary absence programmes) and postconviction accidents and drinking-driving convictions were examined, while controlling statistically for demographic and previous driving record factors. License suspensions were consistently associated with traffic safety benefits. However, increasing severity of other aspects of punishment seemed unrelated to outcome or was associated with increased traffic safety problems. As well, important differences between first, second, and multiple offenders were observed, which may be related to the impact of different aspects of sentence severity on driving behaviour.
Apart from alcohol, various other substances with a psychotropic effect have been discussed recently in relation to their association with road traffic safety. There has been a general lack of hard facts, however, on how much drug use and abuse influence this. In the absence of data on the frequency of such effects, a representative random sample (approx. 8000 persons) of the Austrian population was interviewed and questioned on their drug intake. A smaller sample (2007 persons) was also questioned as to their behaviour regarding road traffic participation. The results showed that those drugs taken most frequently belong to the 'analgesic' group, whilst the frequency in use of substances to which greater importance is attached currently regarding road safety is relatively low (tranquillizers by 4%; strictly 'psychotropic' drugs by 0.3% to 0.6% of the population). These findings are similar to those reported in English-speaking countries. Data analysis showed that socio-cultural factors (age, sex, marital status and profession) influence the frequency and type of drug intake. The definition of drug abuse and addiction used (increase of dosage, inappropriate use, effect changes) proved somewhat unreliable and called into question the criteria used for diagnosis and categorization of persons at risk. In view of the results of previous studies and the importance attached by critics, an unexpected finding of this survey was the minor influence exerted by tranquillizers on road traffic safety. However, the number of cases for individual drug classes was relatively small and there is a need for more broadly based studies of a similar design before reaching firm conclusions.
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An analysis of the number of persons killed and casualty accidents in the 3 years before and after the introduction of Sunday sales of alcoholic beverages in Perth, Western Australia, indicates that the new laws had a detrimental effect on traffic safety.
The effects of alcohol and other psychotropic drugs on eye movements are reviewed with particular attention to the possible relevance of these effects for traffic safety. Alcohol has been shown to have diverse effects, including reduction of the velocity of both saccadic and smooth pursuit eye movements, increased saccadic latency, impairment of convergence and induction of nystagmus. These effects probably contribute to impaired visual information processing, which reduces driving ability. Barbiturates have been reported to produce effects similar to alcohol, and the effects of benzodiazepines and opioids seem to be more limited but still substantial. Marihuana has relatively little effect on eye movements.
The justification of investments in air traffic control systems has typically been based on risk-benefit analyses of the safety of air traffic. But the lack of empirical evidence concerning collisions between aircraft, and the problems of very small numbers make risk analysis inadequate. The pitfalls of risk analysis are discussed in this paper. A framework for safety analysis is proposed where safety is to be assured rather than traded off in the economic sense against other expenditures on the system. The trade-off in the analysis of large investments on control technologies should be between economy and efficiency and should no include safety.
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