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Results for “early warning”

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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2026

From population to individual: advocating personalised digital tools for heat-health early warning in a changing climate.

Escalating heat extremes under climate change are imposing substantial health burdens, with 2023 and 2024 consecutively breaking global temperature records. Mounting evidence suggests that heatwaves elevate the risks of hospitalisation and mortality across multiple disease categories, including ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and acute kidney injury. Nonetheless, most existing heat-health warning systems remain primarily reliant on population-level predictions, and considering individual differences and disease-specific considerations when defining warning levels would benefit the effectiveness of early prevention for high-risk groups. In this Viewpoint, which is based on the framework of precision public health-delivering the right intervention to the right population at the right time-we propose a framework for personalised digital heat-health early warning tools comprising three dimensions: individualised, risk-stratified prediction models that generate tiered early warnings; personalised health prompts coupled with theory-informed behavioural interventions; and adaptive, equity-oriented alert delivery mechanisms tailored to diverse populations. Such tools have the potential to bridge precision disease prevention and climate adaptation, thereby helping to mitigate heat exposure risks and disease burdens, particularly among high-risk populations. Future implementation research will be essential to address substantial challenges related to feasibility, validation, and equity.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2026

Fungal drivers of mycotoxin contamination in wheat: Early warning and plasma-based control.

Mycotoxin contamination in wheat is a major food safety concern; however, quantitative evidence linking fungal community signals, mycotoxin exceedance risk, and wheat quality traits in naturally contaminated wheat remains limited. In this study, wheat samples were collected from mycotoxin-prone monitoring sites under unusually rainy conditions in 2022 to explore early-warning indicators and post-harvest mitigation strategies. According to the National Food Safety Standard of China GB 2761-2017, aflatoxin B1 (AFB1), deoxynivalenol (DON), and zearalenone (ZEN) exceeded the maximum limits in 52.24, 47.76, and 23.88% of samples, respectively; 38.81% exceeded the reference EU threshold for T-2 toxin, and 46.27% showed co-contamination with at least two mycotoxins above their respective thresholds. Although Alternaria, Cladosporium, and Epicoccum dominated the fungal community, Fusarium abundance was significantly associated with DON contamination and Fusarium-damaged kernels (FDKs). Mediation analysis identified DON as a significant mediator linking Fusarium abundance to FDKs, accounting for 68.41% of the total effect. In addition, Fusarium abundance above 3.70% showed strong predictive performance for DON exceedance, with an area under the curve of 0.906, indicating its potential as an early-warning indicator. Culture-based assays confirmed the toxigenic potential of Aspergillus and Fusarium isolates under simulated temperature and moisture conditions. After optimization using a toxin-spiked wheat flour model, dielectric barrier discharge cold plasma degraded AFB1, DON, and ZEN by 29.30-35.68%, disrupted the morphology of toxigenic fungi, and did not significantly affect wheat quality. This study provides practical insights into mycotoxin risk warning and post-harvest mitigation in wheat.

Triticum↗

PubMed2024

Brood indicators are an early warning signal of honey bee colony loss-a simulation-based study.

Honey bees (Apis mellifera) are exposed to multiple stressors such as pesticides, lack of forage, and diseases. It is therefore a long-standing aim to develop robust and meaningful indicators of bee vitality to assist beekeepers While established indicators often focus on expected colony winter mortality based on adult bee abundance and honey reserves at the beginning of the winter, it would be useful to have indicators that allow detection of stress effects earlier in the year to allow for adaptive management. We used the established honey bee simulation model BEEHAVE to explore the potential of different indicators such as population size, number of capped brood cells, flight activity, abundance of Varroa mites, honey stores and a brood-bee ratio. We implemented two types of stressors in our simulations: 1) parasite pressure, i.e. sub-optimal Varroa treatment by the beekeeper (hereafter referred as Biotic stress) and 2) temporal forage gaps in spring and autumn (hereafter referred as Environmental stress). Neither stressor type could be detected by bee abundance or honey reserves at the end of the first year. However, all response variables used in this study did reveal early warning signals during the course of the year. The most reliable and useful measures seem to be related to brood and the abundance of Varroa mites at the end of the year. However, while in the model we have full access to time series of variables from stressed and unstressed colonies, knowledge of these variables in the field is challenging. We discuss how our findings can nevertheless be used to develop practical early warning indicators. As a next step in the interactive development of such indicators we suggest empirical studies on the importance of the number of capped brood cells at certain times of the year on bee population vitality.

Bees↗

PubMed2026

An RPA-assisted homogeneous electrochemical DNA sensor for on-site eDNA detection toward early warning of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks.

Crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) outbreaks seriously threaten coral reef ecosystems, while conventional monitoring approaches are time-consuming and often lack sufficient sensitivity for early warning. Existing electrochemical DNA sensors usually require complex electrode-surface immobilization procedures, which can lead to uneven probe distribution, significant steric hindrance, and poor stability. Meanwhile, the low concentration of environmental DNA (eDNA) in marine environments further complicates detection. To overcome these challenges, this study developed a homogeneous electrochemical DNA sensor assisted by recombinase polymerase amplification (RPA) for COTS eDNA detection. Target DNA was first amplified by RPA, and the amplification products were then hybridized in solution with capture probe (CP)-modified magnetic beads (MB) and biotin-labeled signal probe (SP) to form sandwich-structured MB complexes. These complexes were subsequently magnetically enriched and immobilized on the electrode surface for electrochemical signal readout. Under optimized conditions, the sensor displayed a linear response to COTS genomic DNA from 3.77 fg/μL to 1 ng/μL, with an LOD of 2.02 fg/μL and an LOQ of 3.77 fg/μL. The sensor was applied to Xisha Islands samples, and the results agreed with droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) (P > 0.05), demonstrating its potential for sensitive and reliable on-site COTS eDNA detection.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

[Genomic evolution and epidemiological patterns of respiratory syncytial virus and their implications for surveillance and early warning].

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important respiratory pathogen in infants, young children and older adults. Based on global RSV genomic surveillance data, this review systematically summarizes the geographic distribution, seasonal epidemic patterns, and long-term evolutionary trends of RSV, with particular emphasis on the sustained circulation and evolutionary mechanisms of dominant genotypes such as ON1 in RSV-A and BA9 in RSV-B. Current evidence indicates that RSV transmission dynamics are tightly coupled with viral evolution. The G gene evolves relatively rapidly and contains multiple positively selected sites, suggesting an important role in immune escape and population adaptation. In recent years, changes in social behavior patterns and population immunity have further disrupted the seasonal rhythm of RSV and may have influenced the spread of dominant genotypes. Under routine respiratory infectious disease surveillance, strengthened genomic monitoring and integration of multi-source data are needed to improve early warning of abnormal RSV epidemics and variant-associated risks, thereby providing prospective evidence for protecting high-risk populations and informing public health decision-making.

Humans↗

PubMed1992

Five years of sentinel surveillance of acute respiratory infections (1985-1990): the benefits of an influenza early warning system.

For the last five years, the Brussels Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology has been involved in the surveillance of acute respiratory infections (ARI). The four indicators used (number of encounters of ARI by GP's/100 encounters, virus isolations, absenteeism and mortality) are discussed. A regression procedure is applied to the data collected by a sentinel network of general practitioners (GP's). This procedure permits the baseline to be visualized and an epidemic threshold to be determined in order to recognize early an influenza outbreak. The traditional use of flu-like illnesses as an indicator might be improved by the addition of non-specific ARI which are more precocious, especially in children. The criteria for an accurate definition of an influenza epidemic are discussed. The same mathematical model can be used for the analysis of mortality linked with an outbreak. It shows that the last epidemic in the winter 1989-1990 was responsible for about 4900 deaths directly or indirectly related to influenza.

Absenteeism↗

PubMed1979