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Risk assessment in environmental policy-making.

Environmental policy-making has become more dependent on formal, quantitative risk assessment because of increasing attention to the prevention of human health damage from toxic chemicals. Risk assessment helps set priorities for regulation of the very large numbers of chemicals that are of potential concern and helps direct limited social and government resources against the most significant risks. Although the scientific basis for risk assessment is often uncertain and the public and its representatives have often been confused by its use in regulatory decisions, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency currently uses a variety of risk assessment techniques to set priorities, tailor regulations, and make decisions at particular sites. The Environmental Protection Agency also attempts to make the practice of risk assessment more consistent throughout the agency and to improve public understanding of the meaning of risk assessment and risk management.

Environmental Exposure↗

Legislative incapacity: the congressional role in environmental policy-making and the case of Superfund.

Congress plays a central role in national environmental policy formation but appears ill equipped to set policy priorities and devise integrative legislation. Fragmentation of authority among a multiplicity of committees and subcommittees, especially in the House, contributes to these problems. This pattern is evident in the evolution of Superfund, the national program to clean up abandoned hazardous waste sites. The prolonged process of reauthorization in the 1980s contributed to serious program delay and failed to resolve a number of fundamental questions concerning the national cleanup effort. Institutional reforms could contribute to a more effective congressional role in future environmental policy deliberations.

Environmental Health↗

Risk assessment in the policy-making process: environmental health and safety protection.

This article examines the extent to which differences exist in the relative degree of discretion permitted by the statutory mandates under which health risk assessments are conducted as a basis for regulatory action. Attention is focused on the Environmental Protection Agency and the Food and Drug Administration, because they are the lead federal regulatory agencies on most environmental health matters. The statutes are found to define risk, consider effects, identify target populations, and use benefit-cost analysis in a flexible way. But the burden of proof of risk typically is assigned in a more direct and stringent fashion. Overall, however, agencies are found to have substantial discretion in the manner in which risk assessments are incorporated into the policy process. A number of examples of efforts to reduce this flexibility are outlined and their implications for the future of the analysis of risks are delineated.

Accident Prevention↗

The precautionary principle and pharmaceutical risk management.

Although it is often vigorously contested and has several different formulations, the precautionary principle has in recent decades guided environmental policy making in the face of scientific uncertainty. Originating from a criticism of traditional risk assessment, the key element of the precautionary principle is the justification for acting in the face of uncertain knowledge about risks. In the light of its growing invocation in various areas that are related to public health and recently in relation to drug safety issues, this article presents an introductory review of the main elements of the precautionary principle and some arguments conveyed by its advocates and opponents. A comparison of the characteristics of pharmaceutical risk management and environmental policy making (i.e. the setting within which the precautionary principle evolved), indicates that several important differences exist. If believed to be of relevance, in order to avoid arbitrary and unpredictable decision making, both the interpretation and possible application of the precautionary principle need to be adapted to the conditions of pharmaceutical risk management.

Drug-Related Side Effects and Adverse Reactions↗

Do statistical inferences allowing three alternative decisions give better feedback for environmentally precautionary decision-making?

Environmental policies and guidelines often specify standards for environmental indicators. The first part of this paper argues that, where compliance with these standards is assessed with the help of statistical inference, an inference employing a three-alternatives decision rule can provide more sensible feedback to environmental managers for precautionary decision-making. The second part of the paper shows how a three-alternatives statistical inference about compliance with a percentile standard might be applied to a small number of observations using a non-parametric binomial interval. This interval expression of uncertainty results in the sample size requirements for various percentile ranks becoming explicit.

Decision Making↗

Science, policy and the management of sewage materials. The New York City experience.

Development of national policy on sewage sludge management is a classic example of incremental policy formulation [Fiorino, D.J. 1995. Making Environmental Policy. University of California Press. Berkeley, CA. p. 269]. Consequently, policy has developed piecemeal, and results are, in some ways, different than intended. Land application of sewage sludge has not been a panacea. Many of the same types of policy are now being raised about it. We demonstrate this by examining the management of sewage materials by New York City from near the turn of the 20th century, when ocean dumping was viewed as a means to alleviate some of the gross pollution in New York Harbor, to when ocean dumping was banned, and thence to the present when sludge is applied to land as "biosolids." Lessons learned during this long, sometimes contentious history can be applied to present situations--specifically not understanding the long-term consequences of land-based reuse and disposal technologies.

Environment↗

Tools for comparative analysis of alternatives: competing or complementary perspectives?

A third generation of environmental policy making and risk management will increasingly impose environmental measures, which may give rise to analyzing countervailing risks. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of all risks associated with the decision alternatives will aid decision-makers in prioritizing alternatives that effectively reduce both target and countervailing risks. Starting with the metaphor of the ripples caused by a stone that is thrown into a pond, we identify 10 types of ripples that symbolize, in our case, risks that deserve closer examination: direct, upstream, downstream, accidental risks, occupational risks, risks due to offsetting behavior, change in disposable income, macro-economic changes, depletion of natural resources, and risks to the manmade environment. Tools to analyze these risks were developed independently and recently have been applied to overlapping fields of application. This suggests that either the tools should be linked in a unified framework for comparative analysis or that the appropriate field of application for single tools should be better understood. The goals of this article are to create a better foundation for the understanding of the nature and coverage of available tools and to identify the remaining gaps. None of the tools is designed to deal with all 10 types of risk. Provided data suggest that, of the 10 types of identified risks, those associated with changes in disposable income may be particularly significant when decision alternatives differ with respect to their effects on disposable income. Finally, the present analysis was limited to analytical questions and did not capture the important role of the decision-making process itself.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

Development of Environmental Indicator Systems: Experiences from Germany.

ABSTACT / Environmental indicator systems aim to improve both the information and communication on the state of the environment and the environmental policy making. They have to fulfill scientific, functional and pragmatic requirements, e.g., consideration of ecological context, transparency and reproducibility, comprehensibility, policy relevance, international comparability, and justifiable expenditure. This paper analyzes the experiences made with the development of the German environmental indicator system and draws general conclusions toward further improvements. For Germany, an indicator system has been developed that uses the pressure-state-response approach proposed by the OECD, together with a classification in 14 environmental themes. According to the general requirements, the main criteria used for selecting the indicators are the ecological significance of the indicator, its quantifiability and data availability, and its comprehensibility and policy relevance. Altogether, about 140 indicators are selected. This high number stresses the need for further high-level aggregation, e.g., using methods developed for the valuation process in LCA. Further improvement is also needed, especially for the development of response indicators and in the area of data systematization.

Journal Article↗

A comparative analysis: storm water pollution policy in California, USA and Victoria, Australia.

Urban drainage systems historically were developed on principles of hydraulic capacity for the transport of storm water to reduce the risk of flooding. However, with urbanization the percent of impervious surfaces increases dramatically resulting in increased flood volumes, peak discharge rates, velocities and duration, and a significant increase in pollutant loads. Storm water and urban runoff are the leading causes of the impairment of receiving waters and their beneficial uses in Australia and the United States today. Strict environmental and technology controls on wastewater treatment facilities and industry for more than three decades have ensured that these sources are less significant today as the cause of impairment of receiving waters. This paper compares the approach undertaken by the Environmental Protection Authority Victoria for the Melbourne metropolitan area with the approach implemented by the California Environmental Protection Agency for the Los Angeles area to control storm water pollution. Both these communities are largely similar in population size and the extent of urbanization. The authors present an analysis of the different approaches contrasting Australia with the USA, comment on their comparative success, and discuss the relevance of the two experiences for developed and developing nations in the context of environmental policy making to control storm water and urban runoff pollution.

California↗

The chlorine controversy.

Environmental groups have called for a phaseout of the use of chlorine in industrial chemistry on the grounds that such use inevitably leads to the production of persistent, bioaccumulative toxins. This policy prescription is based on an application of the Precautionary Principle which holds that industry should demonstrate that its products and processes are safe before allowing releases of product or waste into the environment. The chemical industry has rejected the call to phaseout chlorine, and claims that available data on either the environmental exposure pathways or the toxicology of chlorinated compounds are inadequate to support responsible decision-making. Industry leaders have called for environmental policy to be based on sound science, comparative risk assessment, and cost-benefit analysis. The controversy over chlorine shows that the U.S. environmental policy-making framework may no longer be capable of producing solutions to environmental problems that satisfy important constituencies within our society.

Animals↗

Australia's environment and its influences on health.

While the Australian geographic environment is essentially benign, we have had a history of imported infectious diseases which requires continual surveillance to avoid recurring in this age of high international mobility. Urbanisation and an ageing population provide what is now a common picture of health care problems found in most Western societies. There is renewed emphasis on environmental health policy making and the development of stronger strategies of health conservation in the workplace. Many of these efforts have to cope with the difficult legislative arrangements relating to Federal and State jurisdictions.

Australia↗

Comparative risk and policy analysis in environmental health.

There is increasing interest in the integration of quantitative risk analysis with benefit-cost and cost-effectiveness methods to evaluate environmental health policy making and perform comparative analyses. However, the combined use of these methods has revealed deficiencies in the available methods, and the lack of useful analytical frameworks currently constrains the utility of comparative risk and policy analyses. A principal issue in integrating risk and economic analysis is the lack of common performance metrics, particularly when conducting comparative analyses of regulations with disparate health endpoints (e.g., cancer and noncancer effects or risk-benefit analysis) and quantitative estimation of cumulative risk, whether from exposure to single agents with multiple health impacts or from exposure to mixtures. We propose a general quantitative framework and examine assumptions required for performing analyses of health risks and policies. We review existing and proposed risk and health-impact metrics for evaluating policies designed to protect public health from environmental exposures, and identify their strengths and weaknesses with respect to their use in a general comparative risk and policy analysis framework. Case studies are presented to demonstrate applications of this framework with risk-benefit and air pollution risk analyses. Through this analysis, we hope to generate discussions regarding the data requirements, analytical approaches, and assumptions required for general models to be used in comparative risk and policy analysis.

Air Pollution↗

Local level sustainability policies in the Baltic Sea area: Local Agenda 21 within the Union of the Baltic Cities network.

Local Agenda 21 (LA21) processes have 2 central goals. i) On the basis of some of the empirical evidence in this study, the primary goal is to improve democratic (environmental) policy-making processes in such a manner that a larger share of the population will be able to participate in planning and decision making and will also be able to understand the consequences of these decisions. ii) The LA21 processes seek to improve (at least indirectly) the broadly defined environmental situation locally in a manner that takes into account both the local and the global contexts. The first part of this article discusses the concept and methods of LA21 and sheds light on the different action areas that are central to the Baltic LA21 processes. In addition, the study will describe and display the LA21 situation within one network of cities, the Union of the Baltic Cities (UBC). Networking, including transfer of information, models and ideas, has been among the main tools for the diffusion of LA21 ideas especially into newly democratized societies. Finally, the article will conclude with an overall assessment of the LA21 situation on the Baltic rim.

Baltic States↗

Environmental indices in irrigation management.

Irrigation management calls for objective criteria capable of representing the economy, reliability, and productivity of irrigation systems. These criteria must be compatible with long-term sustainability and conservation goals. The criteria representing the above goals are the economic effect of management on yield reduction, economic effect, and reliability referring to plant growth and operation of the network. In this study environmental indices are introduced to express the above criteria in quantitative terms. The inclusion of these indices at the farm and network level create a multicriteria framework for decision-making based on composite programming. An experimental study was conducted during the irrigation periods of 1989 and 1990 in Chania, Greece, concerning water delivered to 40 experimental plots, soil moisture content at the rootzone, and irrigation system operational failures. The data collected in real time were used for the calculation of the corresponding environmental indices. The variation in time and space is high and resulted in up to 62% of yield loss and low system performance (up to 7% of system temporal reliability). The study indicated that environmental indices could be incorporated to select alternatives and also to develop policies on water delivery. The final decision involves a trade-off analysis between cost of application and desired system performance. Measures of both primary objectives can be obtained using environmental indices that represent system operation aggregation at its basic levels (on farm and network).

Agriculture↗

How much uncertainty is too much and how do we know? A case example of the assessment of ozone monitor network options.

Limited time and resources usually characterize environmental decision making at policy organizations such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In these climates, addressing uncertainty, usually considered a flaw in scientific analyses, is often avoided. However, ignoring uncertainties can result in unpleasant policy surprises. Furthermore, it is important for decisionmakers to know how defensible a chosen policy option is over other options when the uncertainties of the data are considered. The purpose of this article is to suggest an approach that is unique from other approaches in that it considers uncertainty in two specific ways-the uncertainty of stakeholder values within a particular decision context and data uncertainty in the light of the decision-contextual data-values relationship. It is the premise of this article that the interaction between data and stakeholder values is critical to how the decision options are viewed and determines the effect of data uncertainty on the relative acceptability of the decision options, making the understanding of this interaction important to decisionmakers and other stakeholders. This approach utilizes the recently developed decision analysis framework and process, multi-criteria integrated resource assessment (MIRA). This article will specifically address how MIRA can be used to help decisionmakers better understand the importance of uncertainty on the specific (i.e., decision contextual) environmental policy options that they are deliberating.

Journal Article↗

Late lessons from early warnings: towards precaution and realism in research and policy.

This paper focuses on the evidentiary aspects of the precautionary principle. Three points are highlighted: (i) the difference between association and causation; (ii) how the strength of scientific evidence can be considered; and (iii) the reasons why regulatory regimes tend to err in the direction of false negatives rather than false positives. The point is made that because obtaining evidence of causation can take many decades of research, the precautionary principle can be invoked to justify action when evidence of causation is not available, but there is good scientific evidence of an association between exposures and impacts. It is argued that the appropriate level of proof is context dependent, as "appropriateness" is based on value judgements about the acceptability of the costs, about the distribution of the costs, and about the consequences of being wrong. A complementary approach to evaluating the strength of scientific evidence is to focus on the level of uncertainty. If decision makers are made aware of the limitations of the knowledge base, they can compensate by adopting measures aimed at providing early warnings of un-anticipated effects and mitigating their impacts. The point is made that it is often disregarded that the Bradford Hill criteria for evaluating evidence are asymmetrical, in that the applicability of a criterion increases the strength of evidence on the presence of an effect, but the inapplicability of a criterion does not increase the strength of evidence on the absence of an effect. The paper discusses the reason why there are so many examples of regulatory "false negatives" as opposed to "false positives". Two main reasons are put forward: (i) the methodological bias within the health and environmental sciences; and (ii) the dominance within decision-making of short term economic and political interests. Sixteen features of methods and culture in the environmental and health sciences are presented. Of these, only three features tend to generate "false positives". It is concluded that although the different features of scientific methods and culture produce robust science, they can lead to poor regulatory decisions on hazard prevention.

Decision Making↗

Beauty bias in butterfly research and conservation.

Conservation biases have been documented since the first emergence of the concept of biodiversity in the 1980s,1,2,3 showing a systematic disproportion in the allocation of research and conservation efforts among taxa.4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 One factor underlying this disproportion, gaining prominence in recent literature, is species' perceived beauty, shaped by human visual preferences.12,13,14,15,16,17 Here, we integrate a large-scale survey of the perceived beauty of European butterflies yielding >21,000 survey completions from >100 countries into a time-explicit network linking species' beauty, public attention, research and conservation efforts, and the EU regulatory framework. We found that species beauty is consistently associated with public attention, research, and conservation efforts in a temporally structured pattern compatible with a cumulative beauty bias. Research effort and public attention concentrate on widespread and visually attractive species, whereas species included in the legal conservation framework, particularly the Convention on the Conservation of European Wildlife and Natural Habitats (hereafter, Bern Convention, BC, 1979)18 and the EU Habitats Directive (hereafter, HD, 1992)19 are disproportionately represented by visually appealing and historically protected taxa. Because these frameworks guide funding and management actions, early associations between species beauty and BC/HD inclusion have contributed to long-lasting institutional patterns in butterfly research and conservation. By contrast, European IUCN Red Lists20,21 do not overrepresent beautiful species and identify more inconspicuous taxa as threatened. This mismatch reveals a tension between scientific assessments of extinction risk and historically embedded conservation priorities. Our findings suggest that recognizing beauty bias is vital for aligning conservation with actual ecological urgency. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Animals↗