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General problems in medical decision making with comments on ROC analysis.

Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions? How should physicians make decisions? Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model observed human behavior. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which the physician's decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance, an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Medical decision-making questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are interviewed.

Bayes Theorem

Computer-aided medical decision making in radiotherapy.

Radiotherapy departments are becoming sophisticated in working with computers for isodose computations, treatment machine verifications and administrative and medical records. The next step lies in computer-assisted medical decision making. The logic for a patient's diagnostic work-up and treatment protocol can be stored in a computer. It can then be used as an aid in making the diagnosis, in prescribing the treatment and for quality control. For patients who fit established protocols the computer can select and list treatment using the logic of that protocol. Such a system has been implemented for the postoperative radiotherapy of breast cancer on a trial basis. Its potential usefulness is illustrated by results in 25 consecutive patients. Physician acceptance and costs of the program are under investigation.

Breast Neoplasms

Primer on certain elements of medical decision making.

The value of a diagnostic test lies in its ability to detect patients with disease (its sensitivity) and to exclude patients without disease (its specificity). For tests with binary outcomes, these measures are fixed. For tests with a continuous scale of values, various cutoff points can be selected to adjust the sensitivity and specificity of the test to conform with the physician's goals. Principles of statistical decision theory and information theory suggest technics for objectively determining these cutoff points, depending upon whether the physician is concerned with health costs, with financial costs, or with the information content of the test.

Bayes Theorem

Tacit components of medical ethics: making decisions in the clinic.

When a patient visits his doctor there is, as well as a spoken dialogue, also an unspoken, or tacit, dialogue between them. This may not be evident unless that dialogue breaks down when the psychological or moral terms of reference of each are seen to be different. The author of this paper tries to elucidate the framework in which physician and patient think, and in so doing allow an understanding of why the physician may appear to be rigid and authoritarian in his dealing with his patients and the patient uncooperative.

Attitude to Health

Psychiatric decision-making by medical students.

Analysis of medical students' formulations and replies to clinical problems indicates difficulty in deciding on the nature and organization of treatment. A programme describing a problem-solving approach was devised, and students taught in this way were shown to be significantly more able to formulate organized treatment plans with more precise aims. It is suggested that problem-solving methods are likely to be much more effective than conventional teaching of psychiatry.

Decision Making