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Coffee consumption and mortality. Total mortality, stroke mortality, and coronary heart disease mortality.

Total mortality showed no association with coffee usage in the four race-sex groups of Evans County, Georgia. Deaths of coronary heart disease (CHD) in white men and women and black men showed no statistically significant difference between high and low coffee consumers. In an area that has been designated as the "Stroke Belt," neither CHD nor cerebrovascular death rates seem related to coffee-drinking habits. However, to refute or confirm the allegations of a detrimental influence of high coffee intake, larger samples are needed. Nevertheless, our finding that mortality from all causes is not increased in the high coffee-consuming group means that a finding of increased CHD mortality with high coffee consumption would have to be compensated by a protective lower rate for other causes of death.

Adult

[Analysis of mortality among the population of productive age in Poland. I. Mortality among men and women and the higher mortality rate among men of productive age in Poland 1951-1985].

The paper presents the results of this study on mortality rate during the period of 1951-1985 for men and women aged 20-64. Moreover, the differences between male and female mortalities were analysed with a view of investigating the problem of excessive mortality ratio of men. In the period under study the descending and then ascending tendency of the mortality rate could be observed both in the male and female populations. Up to 1965 male mortality decreased gradually (by 35%) whereas the following years witnessed considerable rise of the level of male mortality (by 30% to 1985), which referred especially to males at the age range between 40 and 49, years. As regards the female population the mortality rate was decreasing till 1975. For the last 10 years increased female mortality has been observed, however, their dynamics is much more lower than that for the female group (by 6.2% less than for 1975). During the whole period examined i.e. 1951-1985 the excessive mortality ratio in men was found to be higher by 60.4%. High dynamics of the ratio concerned male population at lower age ranges.

Adult

Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of lung cancer mortality in the U.S., 1968-1986. Rising lung cancer mortality is the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics.

Age-adjusted mortality rates for lung cancer (LC) in the United States from 1968 to 1986 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-adjusted LC mortality rate distributions between age 20 and 50 years were determined by a variable environmental factor and a common intersect point. The environmental factor declined (improved) 1.89-fold for men and 3.11-fold for women in 1986 as compared to 1968. The age at the common intersect point was 47.2 years for men and 39.1 years for women. Between 1968 and 1986, the non-age-standardized annual crude LC mortality rate increased 44.8% for men and 217.6% for women. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of LC mortality data suggests that the rising LC mortality rates in the United States are the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics and not a reflection of an environment that is directly more conductive to LC mortality. That is, more people are dying of LC because they are not dying from other diseases such as ischemic heart disease and stroke. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis demonstrates that single disease mortality should not be studied in isolation, but rather examined in relation to other causes of death. When viewed from this perspective, the basis for the more dramatic rise in LC mortality in women becomes immediately evident.

Adult

Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of Parkinson's disease mortality in the U.S., 1955-1986: the dramatic increase in overall mortality since 1980 is the natural consequence of deterministic mortality dynamics.

Age-adjusted mortality rates for Parkinson's disease (PD) for men and women in the United States, from 1955 to 1986, were calculated and subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Annual age-adjusted PD mortality rate distributions were determined by a common intersect point and a variable environmental factor. For men, the death rate at age 73.75 years was 19.15/100,000; for women, the death rate at age 78.99 years was 28.64/100,000 for each year from 1955 to 1986. The environmental factor declined (improved) 360.7-fold for men and 319.6-fold for women in 1986 compared to 1955. Despite this dramatic environmental improvement favoring survival in PD, there has been a 57.6% increase since 1980 in the annual crude PD mortality rate for men compared to the stable annual crude mortality rate from 1955 to 1979. A corresponding 37.9% increase in the annual crude PD mortality rate for women has also occurred since 1980. The increase in overall mortality is due entirely to rapidly increasing age-adjusted mortality rates at ages greater than the intersect points for men and women. The results suggest that overall mortality due to common 'degenerative' diseases may increase dramatically as has occurred in PD.

Age Factors

Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of stroke mortality in the U.S., 1951-1986: declining stroke mortality is the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics.

Age-adjusted mortality rates for stroke in the United States from 1951 to 1986 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-adjusted stroke mortality rate distributions were determined by a variable environmental factor and a constant Gompertz slope. Compared to 1951 values, the environmental factor in 1986 had declined (improved) 49.8% for men and 59.1% for women. This was associated with a 51.9% and 31.4% decrease in the annual crude mortality rate from stroke for men and women respectively. However, the Gompertz slope remained remarkably constant from 1951 to 1986; 0.050152 for men and 0.048341 for women. The constant Gompertz slope for age-adjusted mortality rate distributions for stroke is in sharp contrast to the increasing Gompertz slope which occurs with an improving environment in 'degenerative' diseases and aging in general. These findings suggest that the recent dramatic decline in overall stroke mortality is the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics. As the overall environment becomes more conducive to human survival, Gompertzian diseases with converging mortality rate distributions must increase as causes of human mortality at the expense of diseases with constant Gompertz slopes.

Adult

[Behavior of mortality indicators in small geographic areas: relative standardized mortality ratio and standardized proportional mortality ratio].

One of the most commonly used indicators in mortality studies is the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) being the Relative Standardized Mortality Ratio (RSMR) an indicator of the relative magnitude of the SMR for a specific cause of death. Along with these indicators, which must be calculated by using the population at risk, there is the Standardized Proportional Mortality Ratio (SPMR), an indicator which measures the excess mortality referring to the proportional mortality established for a standard population. This paper reviews the theoretic conditions described in literature as being necessary to establish a probability interval for the RSMR centered on the SPMR as well as the correlations between both indicators and the use of the SPMR as a predictor of the RSMR. The results obtained clearly show how difficult it is for these theoretic conditions to exist. However, they do suggest that the SPMR be used as a predictor of RSMR.

Cause of Death

Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 9. Mortality, 1950-1985: Part 3. Noncancer mortality based on the revised doses (DS86).

Deaths in the RERF Life Span Study (LSS) sample have been determined for the years 1950-1985 and an analysis of cancer mortality with the revised DS86 doses has been described separately. In this report, we examine the relationship to dose of deaths from all diseases other than cancer. Although the evidence is still limited, there seems to be an excess risk from noncancer death at high doses (2 or 3 Gy and over). Statistically, a pure quadratic or a linear-threshold model [the estimated threshold dose is 1.4 Gy (0.6-2.8 Gy)] is found to fit better than a simple linear or linear-quadratic model. This increase in noncancer mortality is statistically demonstrable, generally, after 1965 and among the younger survivors (less than 40 at the time of the bombing), suggesting a sensitivity for this age group. For specific causes of death, an excess in relative risk at the high dose level, that is, 2 Gy or more, is seen in circulatory and digestive diseases. The relative risk is, however, much smaller than that for cancer. These findings, based as they are on death certificates, have their limitations. Most significant, perhaps, is the possible erroneous attribution of radiation-related cancer deaths to other causes. At present, the contribution such errors may make to the apparent increase in non-cancer deaths at the higher doses cannot be estimated as rigorously as is obviously desirable. However, even now, this increase does not appear to be fully explicable in terms of errors in classification. Further follow-up of mortality in this LSS cohort as well as disease revealed by the biennial physical examinations of the morbidity subsample (Adult Health Study) of the LSS cohort will be needed to confirm this suggestion of a radiation-related increase in mortality from causes other than cancer, and to determine whether it results in a demonstrable life shortening among the heavily exposed A-bomb survivors.

Age Factors

[A statistical study of the countermeasures to reduce the maternal mortality based on the relationship between the maternal mortality rate and perinatal mortality rate].

Although both the Japanese maternal mortality rate (MMR) and the perinatal mortality rate (PMR) have decreased remarkably in recent decades, the former is still high compared with other advanced countries. A statistical analysis on the relationship between the MMR and the PMR was performed to investigate this discrepancy. During the period of study, both rates fell by over 50 percent. There were definite statistical differences among the PMR for each prefecture but almost none among the MMR. The prefectures with high PMR remained generally high in the PMR and the prefectures with low PMR also remained low in the MMR. There was no significant correlation between the PMR and the MMR. Both maternal and perinatal deaths due to common causes decreased in number, and there were few regional differences concerning effective measures against them. The leading causes of maternal death which are irrelevant to perinatal death are emboli, bleeding, and some other rare medical complications. Emphasis should therefore be laid upon the early diagnosis and treatment of amniotic fluid embolism apart from measures against haemorrhage. Countermeasures for rare complications are also of great importance.

Embolism, Amniotic Fluid

[On cancer mortality in the German Democratic Republic. Regional differences and time trends of mortality of malignant neoplasms of stomach, colon, rectum, breast, and uterus, 1960--1969].

Mortality of maligant neoplasms of stomach (ICD 151; 84 529 deaths), colon (ICD 153; 13237 deaths), rectum (ICD 154; 13687 deaths), breast (ICD 174; 24400 deaths), and uterus (ICD 180--182; 25308 deaths) in the GDR in the years from 1960 to 1969 is described. There are regional differences of mortality which cannot be explained by demographic and diagnostic factors solely but suggest that there exist real differences of cancer risk. Mortality of stomach cancer is relatively low in the middle regions (Berlin, Frankfurt, Potsdam, Cottbus) and in the region of Erfurt and remakably high in the regions of Schwerin, Neubrandenburg, Gera, Leipzig and Karl-Max-Stadt. Mortality of colonic cancer is highest in Berlin, lowest in Schwerin, Neubrandenburg and Gera. Mortality of rectum cancer shows minor regional differences and another distribution than colonic ancer. Mortality of breast cancer is extremely high in Berlin and very low in Suhl. Mortality of cancer of the uterus reaches high levels in Neubrandenburg and is very low in the region of Karl-Marx-Stadt. In the period 1960--1969, mortality of stomach cancer has decreased whereas mortality of colonic cancer has increased. Mortality of rectum neoplasm remained constant. The time trend of mortality of breast cancer demonstrates regional differences and has increased somewhat in th GDR. Mortality of uterus cancer has slightly decreased. Regional differences and time trends of cancer mortality in the GDR suggest the influence of environmental factors.

Adolescent

Infant mortality in Alaska: evidence of high postneonatal mortality rate.

Improvements in infant mortality (death less than 1 year of age) have been experienced by the United States and Alaska over the past decade. The decline in the Alaska neonatal mortality (death less than 28 days of age) rate has been the major factor in our improved infant mortality rate. Alaska's neonatal mortality rate is one of the lowest in the U.S. However, postneonatal mortality (28 days to 1 year of age) rate has not declined and is one of the highest in the U.S. In this study we used vital statistics records to examine socio-demographic and inter-regional factors that may help to explain Alaska's apparently high postneonatal mortality rate. The study population consisted of all live born infants in Alaska for 1975 to 1985, who died in infancy. The Alaska neonatal mortality rate has been lower, but postneonatal mortality rate has been higher than the U.S. average for the period under consideration (p less than .05). Comparison of alaska postneonatal mortality rate from 1975 to 1985 with the U.S. found Alaska Non-natives have higher postneonatal mortality rates than U.S. White, and Alaska Native have higher postneonatal mortality rates than other U.S. minorities. The rural areas of Alaska have a higher postneonatal mortality rate than urban areas, a phenomenon also observed for the U.S. as a whole.

Alaska

Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of primary malignant brain tumor mortality in the U.S., 1962-1987: rising mortality in the elderly is the natural consequence of competitive deterministic dynamics.

Age-adjusted mortality rates for primary malignant brain tumors (PMBT) in the United States from 1962 to 1987 were subjected to longitudinal Gompertzian analysis. Age-adjusted PMBT mortality rate distributions between age 25 and 65 years were determined by a variable environmental factor and a common intersect point. The environmental factor declined (improved) 1.58-fold for men and 2.34-fold for women in 1987 as compared to 1962. The age at the common intersect point was 68.4 years for men and 64.1 years for women. Between 1962 and 1987, non-age-standardized annual crude PMBT mortality rates increased 14.5% for men and 37.8% for women. However, PMBT mortality rates at age 77.5 years rose 259% for men and 409% for women between 1962 and 1987. Longitudinal Gompertzian analysis of PMBT mortality data suggests that rapidly rising PMBT mortality rates in the elderly are the natural consequence of competitive deterministic mortality dynamics and should not be attributed to environmental factors, past or present, that are directly contributing to PMBT mortality. Furthermore, longitudinal Gompertzian analysis demonstrates that PMBT mortality should not be studied in isolation, but rather should be examined in relation to other causes of death. When viewed from this perspective, the basis for the dramatic rise in PMBT mortality in the elderly becomes quite evident.

Adult

Rising mortality due to Parkinson's disease and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a manifestation of the competitive nature of human mortality.

Over the past 15 yr, a marked increase in crude mortality rates from Parkinson's disease (PD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has occurred in the U.S. This is often attributed to as yet undefined environmental factors. The deterministic risk of general mortality and mortality due to PD, ALS, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke for the years 1963, 1977, and 1986 in the U.S., as defined by the method of longitudinal Gompertzian analysis, were calculated and compared. When the rise in PD and ALS mortality is viewed from the perspective of deterministic and competitive mortality dynamics, it becomes evident that the major force increasing mortality from these two neurologic diseases is the declining mortality from IHD and stroke. Consequently, there is no need to invoke intrinsic etiologic alterations in the environment to account for the observed increases in PD and ALS mortality. Recognition of the competitive nature of human mortality illustrates the inherent risk of making etiopathogenic conclusions based upon single disease mortality data.

Adult

Perinatal mortality and maternal mortality at the Provincial Hospital, Quang Ngai, South Vietnam, 1967-1970.

The perinatal mortality, maternal mortality, infant mortality rates, and the complications of delivery at the Provincial Hospital of Quang Ngai, South Vietnam are described. The perinatal mortality is the only valid statistic available as the infant usually leaves the hospital within three days of delivery. Knowledge pertaining to the 4th to 28th day after birth is scanty and there is insufficient knowledge about the first year of life. Infant mortality is estimated at 277 per 1,000 live births. The perinatal mortality 64.6 per 1,000 live births, and maternal mortality, 106 per 10,000 live births are extremely high in contrast to Western countries. The high perinatal mortality is attributable to deaths during birth, the neonatal and immediate postnatal period. The high maternal mortality is primarily due to caesarean section, anemia, uterine rupture, toxemia, post-partum hemorrhage and puerperal infection.

Anemia

[A single year birth cohort analysis of mortality in Japan, 1950 to 1984, statistical method and all cause mortality].

Mortality of single birth year cohort were calculated using the data tape of Information Service on World Health Statistics, WHO, 1950-1984. The data tape gave population and number of deaths for each year of age under 5 years of age and by 5 years of age for ages from 5 to 84 years. Population and number of deaths by age for each year of age in each calendar year were estimated by interpolation. Populations for each year of age were interpolated by B-spline interpolation. Number of deaths for each year of age were calculated by application of "two dimensional semi-Hermite method" after estimation of number of deaths for age 80, 81,......84, using Sprague interpolation factors. Age-specific cohort mortality curves were lower for each successive cohort, demonstrating the so-called "cohort phenomenon", clearly. Ratios of mortalities at the same age, for each successive 5 year interval cohort, which indicate cohort-by-cohort changes of mortalities, were thus less than 1.0 in almost all age groups. In recent years the ratios have gradually been leveling off at 0.8-0.9. Cohorts born in the early Showa Era (around 1930) showed higher ratios than all other cohorts, indicating relatively poor improvement in mortalities compared to the other cohorts. Ratios of cohort mortalities for successive ages within the same cohort, which indicates mortalities increase with advance of age, were greater than 1.0 after adulthood. These particular results showed that the increase in mortality with age accelerated after 30 years of age and that a difference in trend was observed between male and female after age 50. This new method of cohort analysis, single birth year cohort, gives clearer results than those obtained by methods heretofore utilized in cohort studies and is useful for more detailed analysis of cohort mortality.

Adolescent

Mortality and industrial employment. II. Industries with high mortality among young workers based on a social security sample.

Goldsmith and Hirschberg have published a preliminary report on mortality among a sample of social security recipients employed in 1965 and whose mortality experience was available through 1972. Among white males, but not among blacks or white females, mortality was higher among those age 16-20 in 1965 than among those 21-25. Among the industrial populations tabulated, young workers showed in a few cases significantly elevated standard mortality ratios, even when overall mortality was not increased. Accordingly, we have examined mortality for 1960-72 for those employed in 1960 for all the industrial groups (two digit SIC codes) to look for industries in which young workers have high mortality. Only those industries have been considered in which observed deaths at ages 11-30 (in 1960) exceed 10 and population at risk exceeds 200. Young workers appear to have significantly elevated mortality in: agricultural production (white males), metal mining (white males), real estate (white males), military and reserves (white males), miscellaneous business services (white females), and eating and drinking establishments (white females). For such industries, preventive measures should be considered.

Adolescent

Behavioural risk factors among young adults in small areas with high mortality versus those in low-mortality areas.

A community-based cross-sectional survey of behavioural risk factors for premature mortality was carried out on a group of 354 adults aged 25-44 from previously identified high-mortality 'black-spots' in Dublin who were compared with 333 others from low-mortality areas. In the black-spot areas, 50.9% of respondents were current smokers versus 28.5% in low-mortality areas and 14.6% took 'sufficient' exercise versus 31.4% in low-mortality areas. People living in black spots were also less likely to make 'healthy' dietary choices than those in low-mortality areas. There is a higher prevalence of behavioural risk factors for premature mortality among young adults living in electoral wards/district electoral divisions (DEDs) with high standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) from all causes than among those in areas with low SMRs. A health promotion programme aimed at increasing exercise levels, reducing smoking and encouraging healthy eating should be aimed at young adults in DEDs with high SMRs.

Adult

Mortality by employment status in the National Longitudinal Mortality Study.

A mortality follow-up of 452, 192 persons aged 25 years or more who were characterized with respect to employment status was conducted using the National Death Index for the years 1979 through 1983. The cohort, part of the National Longitudinal Mortality Study, was drawn from Current Population Survey samples representative of the US population using selected months during the years 1979-1983. Employed persons aged 25-64 years were found to have standardized mortality ratios from 61% to 74% of the average, depending upon their sex and race. Unemployed men had standardized mortality ratios slightly above 100, but these values were 1.6 and 2.2 times higher than those for employed white men and black men, respectively. Those classified as unable to work had very high mortality ratios, from two to seven times the average. In the older age groups, 65 years or more, very low mortality ratios were found for those who were still employed. These relations were maintained after adjustment for family income and educational level. These results 1) describe the magnitude of mortality risk for clearly defined employment categories, 2) identify segments of the population with especially high mortality requiring greater public health recognition, and 3) suggest further research into the health consequences of the various employment/nonemployment conditions.

Adult

Long-term mortality study of steelworkers. IX. Mortality patterns among sheet and tin mill workers.

As a result of findings of an earlier report in this series, this study examines the updated cause-specific mortality of men employed in the sheet and tin mill areas of the steel industry. In order to investigate possible relationships between occupational responsibilities or exposures and mortality from specific causes, the sheet and tin mills have been subdivided into 13 mutually exclusive work areas. Detailed analysis is limited primarily to white workers due to the small number of nonwhites in these areas. The most important observations are: 1. Increased overall mortality appears for men employed in 1953 in the sheet finishing and shipping area, confirming the findings of Lloyd, et al. The earlier observation of a significant excess in deaths from vascular lesions of the central nervous system does not hold over time. The previously noted excess for this cause may be related to selective factors or an extreme chance observation. The excess in mortality from all causes of death, which occurs over several disease categories, may not be a result of occupational exposures, but rather some selectivity. 2. Significant excesses in mortality from arteriosclerotic heart disease are noted among men employed in batch pickling and sheet dryer operations, which is in agreement with the earlier findings. Increased risks of dying from hypertensive heart disease are seen in the coating area. 3. Cancer of the lymphatic and hematopoietic tissues is found to be a significant source of excess mortality for workers in the heat treating and forging and tin finishing and shipping work areas. 4. Steelworkers employed in the annealing-normalizing work area show an excess in deaths from nonmalignant respiratory diseases, primarily pneumonia. Further study in these areas should attempt to investigate whether factors in the work environment may be responsible for the observed excess mortalities. More specifically, work should be done to find out whether men employed in heat treating and forging and tin finishing and shipping work in close proximity to chemicals or radiation exposure and whether workers employed in the annealing-normalizing area are exposed to any kind of oil, vapor, or chemical which might be irritating or infectious to the respiratory system. A similar analysis for men working in the batch pickling and sheet dryers and coating areas would also be worthwhile. The main emphasis of any future study should lie upon investigating whether the observed excess mortalities are due to any environmental factor, selection for health, or random fluctuation.

Alloys