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PubMed2026

bioETH-PRS: confidential polygenic risk scoring with smart contracts on an FHE-enabled blockchain.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) aggregate genetic effect estimates to predict disease susceptibility, yet calculating one through an external service can require exposing raw genotype data. Homomorphic encryption hides those data during the calculation but, in prior work, still places a designated evaluator in a position of trust. We present bioETH-PRS, a protocol that replaces the evaluator with publicly auditable smart contracts on a blockchain supporting Fully Homomorphic Ethereum Virtual Machine (fhEVM). Using integer-exact encrypted arithmetic, bioETH-PRS computes the PRS dot product entirely in the encrypted domain, so genotype dosages and, at the model provider's discretion, the GWAS weights stay hidden from the parties performing the computation. A fixed-point encoding represents signed weights as nonnegative integers within a bound that rules out overflow, recovering the score to the precision of the published weights. A four-contract architecture separates data custody, model publication, computation, and output release, and supports both a classic path that stores encrypted inputs and an appreciably cheaper streaming path that discards them. A release oracle can return a randomized risk category instead of the raw score, limiting what a repeated querier learns. Prototype evaluation on real GWAS fixtures, including a run on a public testnet, shows cost growing linearly with variant count and suggests the approach may be practical where transaction fees are low. Trust is redistributed rather than removed: the system still depends on the contracts, the blockchain, and the fhEVM services. We evaluate additive models of moderate size, not genome-wide or clinical use.

Blockchain↗

PubMed2026

A multi-ancestry polygenic risk score for body mass index predicts longitudinal weight change.

BACKGROUND: Identifying individuals at risk for future weight gain is challenging, partly because associations with traditional clinical risk factors may be biased by confounding and reverse causation. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) provide a stable, lifelong measure of genetic predisposition to obesity. However, existing PRS have not been evaluated for their association with longitudinal weight change in adulthood and often lack generalizability across diverse genetic ancestry groups. METHODS: We conducted ancestry-specific genome-wide association study meta-analyses of body mass index (BMI) in populations of European, African or African American, Admixed American, East Asian, and South Asian ancestries and developed ancestry-specific PRS. A multi-ancestry polygenic risk score (MAPRS) was trained using ancestry-specific PRS in a model selection dataset (N = 39,685) from the All of Us Research Program (AoU). We evaluated the MAPRS in an independent AoU model evaluation dataset (N = 158,743) for BMI prediction and in a separate AoU test dataset (N = 78,219) with repeated measurements over 1.5-2.5 years for weight change prediction. The outcomes included change in BMI and ≥ 10% or ≥ 5% total body weight (TBW) gain. We further examined the relationship between MAPRS and 12 clinical risk factors commonly comorbid with obesity in relation to weight change. RESULTS: The MAPRS captured 7.05% of the variance in measured BMI in the AoU model evaluation dataset and demonstrated improved generalizability across all non-European genetic ancestry groups. In the AoU test dataset, conditioned on baseline BMI at the second-to-last measurement, a one SD increase in MAPRS was associated with a 0.16 kg/m2 increase in future BMI (standard error = 0.012 kg/m2; p-value = 2.2 × 10-39), 1.27-fold increased odds of experiencing ≥ 10% TBW gain (95% CI: 1.24-1.31; p-value = 1.4 × 10-55), and 1.15-fold increased odds of experiencing ≥ 5% TBW gain (95% CI: 1.13-1.18; p-value = 2.8 × 10-39). These associations were observed across all genetic ancestry groups and remained highly consistent after adjustment for any clinical risk factor. In contrast, most clinical risk factors demonstrated inconsistent or weaker associations with weight change outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: We developed an MAPRS for BMI that represents a robust and generalizable risk factor for longitudinal weight gain in adulthood, providing a foundation for genetically informed risk stratification and earlier, more targeted obesity prevention strategies.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

Diabetes mellitus polygenic risk scores: heterogeneity and clinical translation.

Diabetes mellitus encompasses several disorders, each with differing clinical presentation, prognoses and pathophysiology. Distinct polygenic architectures underlie type 1 diabetes mellitus and type 2 diabetes mellitus, and govern numerous pathophysiological pathways that converge on dysglycaemia. Over the previous decade, polygenic risk scores (PRS) derived from large genome-wide association studies have become broadly recognized for their potential in precision medicine. PRS, and now partitioned polygenic scores generated by clustering of risk variants, can quantify individual genetic predisposition to diabetes mellitus and reveal molecular heterogeneity responsible for variation in clinical presentation and prognoses. In this Review, we examine and contrast progress in the development of type 1 diabetes mellitus PRS and type 2 diabetes mellitus PRS, and discuss paths to further methodological advances. We examine how studies in the past 10 years have harnessed PRS and novel partitioned polygenic scores to reveal insights into diabetes mellitus aetiology and characterize changes in cellular and tissue-specific disease-modifying molecular pathways. Additionally, we discuss advances and opportunities in areas of clinical translation, including improved classification of diabetes mellitus type, screening of those at risk and personalized interventions informed by PRS. Finally, we emphasize the urgent need to overcome ancestry-related challenges and highlight current progress and gaps in ensuring the equitable translation of PRS for diabetes mellitus precision medicine.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

DiscoDivas: Leveraging genetic ancestry continuum information to interpolate PRS for admixed populations.

The relatively low representation of admixed populations in both discovery and fine-tuning individual-level datasets limits polygenic risk score (PRS) development and equitable clinical translation for admixed populations. Under the assumption that the most informative PRS model for a genetically homogeneous sample varies linearly in an ancestry continuum space, we introduce a Genetic Distance-assisted PRS Combination Pipeline for Diverse Genetic Ancestries (DiscoDivas) to interpolate a harmonized PRS for diverse, especially admixed, genetic ancestries, leveraging multiple PRS models fine-tuned within existing samples, which are mostly of single ancestry, and genetic distance. DiscoDivas treats genetic ancestry as a continuous variable and does not require shifting between different models when calculating PRS for different ancestries. We generated PRS with DiscoDivas and the current conventional method, i.e. fine-tuning multiple GWAS PRS using the matched or similar genetic ancestry samples. DiscoDivas generated a harmonized PRS of the accuracy comparable to or higher than the conventional approach, with the greatest advantage exhibited in admixed individuals.

PRS harmonization↗

PubMed2026

Development and pilot testing of a prostate cancer polygenic risk report.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are increasingly being incorporated into clinical care, yet optimal strategies for communicating PRS results to patients and clinicians remain undefined. Effective report design is critical to ensure comprehension and appropriate use, particularly for complex conditions such as prostate cancer where screening decisions are nuanced. We developed and pilot tested patient-facing materials to communicate integrated polygenic and monogenic risk for prostate cancer in the context of a randomized clinical trial. METHODS: We designed a summary report and accompanying Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) page to communicate prostate cancer genetic risk within the Prostate Cancer, Genetic Risk, and Equitable Screening Study (ProGRESS). Materials were developed through an iterative, multidisciplinary process informed by existing literature on genomic risk communication. We conducted semi-structured interviews with a national sample of eight men eligible for prostate cancer screening to evaluate comprehension, interpretation of visual elements, perceived usefulness, and preferences for improvement. Interviews were transcribed and analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: Participants generally found the summary report and FAQ page understandable and visually engaging. Graphical displays of absolute risk, particularly pictograph arrays, facilitated comprehension and helped contextualize risk. Visual cues such as color and bold formatting effectively directed attention to key information, with red coloring perceived as particularly salient for high-risk results. In contrast, more complex visualizations, including bell curves and incidence curves, were frequently misunderstood or not interpreted as intended. Participants expressed a desire for clearer guidance regarding next steps and additional accessible information, suggesting supplementary resources such as hyperlinks or QR codes. Concerns about readability included small font size and high text density. CONCLUSIONS: In this qualitative pilot study, patient-facing materials for communicating prostate cancer PRS were generally well received, with specific design features such as simple visualizations and clear formatting enhancing understanding. Findings highlight the importance of intuitive risk displays and actionable guidance in PRS reporting. These results provide practical insights to inform the design of genomic risk reports as PRS-based prostate cancer screening approaches move toward clinical implementation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05926102; date of registry: July 3, 2023.

Aged↗

PubMed2025

Predicting Weight Loss After Vertical Sleeve Gastrectomy Using a Whole-genome Sequencing-derived Polygenic Risk Score in the All of Us Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To create a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS) to improve prediction of a 12-month percentage weight loss (WL) after vertical sleeve gastrectomy (VSG). BACKGROUND: Variability in post-VSG WL is not well explained by clinical factors. The All of Us program provides access to a 414,830 short-read whole-genome sequencing resource, enabling unbiased discovery of genetic predictors after VSG. METHODS: VSG counts, demographic, anthropomorphic and vital sign information were obtained from the linked electronic health record. The discovery cohort (DC) included participants from version 7 carried into version 8 while the validation cohort (VC) included those newly added to v8. We defined good responders and nonresponders as having WL±1SD from the mean. Following quality filtering, we applied a 2-stage penalized-regression, followed by elastic-net logistic regression, to identify 1583 stable variants and derive β-weights. We then tested this PRS on the DC into a prediction model. RESULTS: We identified 395 participants in the DC and 336 participants in the VC, respectively. Of these, VSG, 44 were classified as good responders (≥37% WL) and 55 as nonresponders (≤19% WL). In the VC, 55 were classified as good responders and 48 as nonresponders. Adding the PRS to models to clinical predictors increased the area under the curve following logistic regression by 0.03; P <4.3 × 10 -14 , random forest by 0.03; P <9.1 × 10 -7 , decision tree by 0.05; P = 1.2 × 10 -3 , and gradient boosting by 0.08; P <8.3 × 10 -10 . CONCLUSIONS: Use of short-read whole-genome sequencing from All of Us (AoU) can be effectively used to generate PRS to enhance predictive WL accuracy. This work has implications for outcomes of both bariatric surgery and other surgical procedures.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Polygenic Risk Based Detection and Treatment of Subclinical Coronary Atherosclerosis in the PROACT Clinical Trials.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) polygenic risk scores (PRS) may identify individuals at elevated genetic risk "flying under the radar" in contemporary practice. The aims of the PROACT (Polygenic Risk Based Detection and Treatment of Subclinical Coronary Atherosclerosis) trials are to prospectively identify these individuals, quantify subclinical coronary plaque, and slow its progression with pharmacologic interventions. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to report interim feasibility and implementation findings from PROACT, a genotype-first, biobank-enabled trial, characterizing eligibility yield, callback engagement, and subclinical coronary atherosclerosis on coronary computed tomographic angiography among individuals with high CAD PRS. METHODS: Within a hospital-based biobank, adults 40 to 75 years of age with high CAD PRS, without cardiovascular disease, and not on lipid-lowering therapy were invited. The authors characterize 2,495 eligible individuals with high CAD PRS, report on the feasibility and early operational outcomes of a genotype-first callback strategy for a clinical trial in the first 1,314 invited, and describe plaque prevalence by age and sex in the first 204 participants using coronary computed tomographic angiography. RESULTS: Among 64,092 genotyped participants, 2,495 (3.9%) were eligible and had high CAD PRS despite low clinical risk (median 10-year pooled cohort equations risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease 3%; Q1-Q3: 1%-8%). Recruitment showed high engagement: among 1,314 invited individuals, 283 (21.5%) opted in, and 204 (15.5%) completed baseline imaging. Compared with participants who did not opt in, those who opted in had higher specialty care engagement and lived closer to the study site. Analysis of the first 204 participants enrolled by January 31, 2025 (mean age 56.3 ± 8.5 years, 69% women), showed that despite the low clinical risk and favorable cardiovascular health (mean Life's Essential 8 score 73.3 ± 11.5 vs the U.S. average of ∼65), one-half the participants (102 of 204) had subclinical plaque. Subclinical plaque prevalence was 76.2% in men and 38.3% in women and was high across age groups. CONCLUSIONS: These exploratory findings highlight the feasibility of implementing genotype-first recruitment for prevention trials and reveal a large proportion of "silent" high-genetic risk individuals with subclinical plaque for whom pharmacotherapy could be beneficial but who remain undetected by standard clinical assessments. (Polygenic Risk Based Detection of Subclinical Coronary Atherosclerosis and Change in Cardiovascular Health [PROACT 1], NCT05819814; Polygenic Risk Based Detection of Subclinical Coronary Atherosclerosis and Intervention With Statin and Colchicine [PROACT 2], NCT05850091).

Adult↗

PubMed2026

Baseline Computed Tomography Coronary Angiography and Polygenic Risk Profiles in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Cross-Sectional Analysis From the VOLTAIRE Study.

AIMS: To characterise baseline clinical, anatomical, and genetic cardiovascular risk profiles in participants enrolled in the VOLTAIRE (Evaluation of Polygenic Scores and CT Imaging in Risk Factor Modification in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes) study and examine concordance across these domains. METHODS: This analysis included adults with T2D who completed baseline computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) and polygenic risk score (PRS) assessment prior to randomisation in the VOLTAIRE study. Coronary atherosclerosis was evaluated using coronary artery calcium (CAC) score and CTCA-derived stenosis severity. Clinical risk was assessed using the New Zealand Society for the Study of Diabetes 5-year cardiovascular risk calculator. Polygenic risk for coronary artery disease was assessed using a genome-wide PRS and categorised into tertiles. RESULTS: Among 126 participants with T2D (mean age 57.5 ± 8.7 years; 62.7% male), coronary atherosclerotic burden was highly heterogeneous: 34.9% had CAC = 0, whereas 19.8% had CAC ≥ 400. Moderate-to-severe coronary stenosis (≥ 50%) was present in 40.5% of participants overall, including 20.4% of those classified as low clinical risk. PRS distribution was variable (low 37.3%, intermediate 35.7%, high 27.0%). Overlap between anatomical, genetic, and clinical domains was limited, with only 8.7% of participants classified as high risk across all three. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial heterogeneity and limited overlap exist between anatomical, genetic, and clinical cardiovascular risk measures in T2D. These findings support a multimodal approach to risk assessment integrating imaging and genetic profiling. TRIAL REGISTRATION: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; ID: NCT07091162.

Aged↗

PubMed2026

Improving the reliability of polygenic risk score-based prediction for cardiovascular and renal complications across ancestries in type 2 diabetes using Mondrian Cross-Conformal Prediction.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) developed in European populations often show reduced predictive performance in non-European populations, limiting their clinical utility. This lack of transferability across ancestries remains a major challenge in genomic medicine and raises concerns about health equity. We aimed to evaluate whether uncertainty-aware prediction, implemented through Mondrian Cross-Conformal Prediction, improves the performance and reliability of polygenic risk score-based predictions across ancestries for nephropathy, stroke, and myocardial infarction in individuals with type 2 diabetes in a multi-ethnic cohort. We leveraged Mondrian Cross-Conformal Prediction (MCCP), an uncertainty quantification framework, combined with logistic regression applied to a multi-polygenic risk score (multiPRS) to predict the risk of nephropathy, stroke, and myocardial infarction in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Two training frameworks were evaluated: one using 4,098 individuals with type 2 diabetes of European ancestry from the ADVANCE trial for training and 17,574 White British, 1,145 South Asian, and 749 African UK Biobank participants for testing; and another using the 17,574 White British UK Biobank participants for training and the South Asian and African participants for testing. Logistic regression provided robust baseline performance across populations. On top of this baseline, MCCP did not improve performance but added capabilities absent from probability-based stratification: for each individual, it issued a prediction together with an explicit confidence and credibility level; it allowed a tolerated error level to be set in advance and delivered prediction sets respecting it in the majority of settings; and it flagged individuals for whom no reliable prediction could be made. Applying MCCP to PRS-based prediction thus enables uncertainty-aware risk stratification and improves the reliability of risk prediction across ancestries, providing a more equitable framework for clinical use.

Female↗

PubMed2025

Polygenic Contributions to Lithium Augmentation Outcomes in Unipolar Depression.

IMPORTANCE: Lithium augmentation is an effective treatment for patients with major depression after inadequate antidepressant response, but therapeutic outcomes vary considerably between individuals. Molecular studies may provide novel insights into treatment prediction and guide personalized therapy. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia (SCZ), major depressive disorder (MDD), and bipolar disorder (BIP) with clinical outcomes after lithium augmentation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study analyzed prospectively assessed treatment outcomes in patients who underwent lithium augmentation. Disorder-specific PRS were calculated using well-powered genome-wide association study summary statistics. Participants were recruited from 13 psychiatric hospitals, primarily in the greater Berlin area, between 2008 and 2020. They were patients with MDD who showed inadequate response to at least 1 antidepressant, a baseline score of 12 or more on the 17-item Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HAMD-17), adequate treatment duration (≥4 weeks), and no diagnostic or co-medication changes. Data analysis was conducted between June 2022 and November 2023. EXPOSURE: Polygenic risk scores for MDD, SCZ, or BIP. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Response was defined as a 50% or greater reduction in HAMD-17 score, remission as a HAMD-17 score of 7 or less. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for ancestry, demographic, and clinical covariates, were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for favorable outcomes. RESULTS: Among 193 patients (mean [SD] age, 49.5 [13.4] years; 118 [61.1%] female and 75 [38.9%] male), higher BIP-PRS were associated with both response (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.02-1.63; P = .03) and remission (HR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.14-2.04; P = .004), explaining 2.51% and 4.53% of the variability in treatment outcomes, respectively. Individuals in the highest tertile of the BIP-PRS distribution had a 2.02-fold (95% CI, 1.15-3.53) higher likelihood of response and a 2.26-fold (95% CI, 1.17-4.36) higher chance of remission compared with those in the lowest tertile. Additionally, lower MDD-PRS was associated with better response to lithium augmentation (HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.66-1.00; P = .048; Nagelkerke R2 = 1.99%). No significant associations were observed between SCZ-PRS and response (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.80-1.24; P = .97) or remission (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.85-1.48; P = .42). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Individuals carrying a higher polygenic burden for BIP and lower polygenic risk for MDD are more likely to benefit from lithium augmentation. Our findings suggest that disease-related PRS may aid in developing treatment prediction models for lithium augmentation response in depression, potentially informing clinical decision-making.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Meta-ERS: an exposome-based risk score using non-genetic factors to guide osteoporosis prevention.

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis is influenced by both genetic and environmental factors, yet the relative contribution of the exposome remains unclear. This study aimed to systematically identify non-genetic exposures related to osteoporosis and develop an exposome risk score (ERS) to evaluate individual osteoporosis susceptibility. METHODS: We conducted an exposome-wide analysis of 477,792 UK Biobank participants to identify key exposures associated with osteoporosis. The selected exposures were combined into a weighted Meta-ERS and validated in the Scotland/Wales cohort. The Meta-ERS was further compared with polygenic risk scores (PRS) and linked to plasma proteomics to explore underlying biological pathways. RESULTS: We identified 41 independent non-genetic exposures spanning socioeconomic status, mental health, sleep, diet, smoking, physical activity, environment, and marital status, with socioeconomic status and mental health emerging as the most significant drivers. Based on the identified exposures, we constructed eight domain-specific exposure risk scores and integrated them into a weighted Meta-ERS. The Meta-ERS (R2 = 5.1%; Proportion of Chi-Square = 14.3%) demonstrated an ability to explain osteoporosis variation that was on par with polygenic risk scores (R2 = 4.8%; Proportion of Chi-Square = 12.0%). Importantly, modifying unfavorable exposures mitigated the negative effect of PRS on osteoporosis, particularly among high PRS individuals (1.5- to 1.8-fold greater absolute risk reduction than in those with low PRS). Proteomic analyses further revealed potential mechanisms through which the exposome influences osteoporosis, including hormonal regulation, inflammation, ossification, muscle development, lipid metabolism, and accelerated bone aging. Among these, growth/differentiation factor 15 was identified as a key mediator protein, with a mediation proportion of 13.13%-36.52%. CONCLUSIONS: The Meta-ERS facilitates the quantification of individual osteoporosis risk and identifies modifiable exposures for targeted prevention. Its application can enable personalized risk stratification and guide lifestyle or environmental interventions.

Aged↗

PubMed2026

Two Genomes, one Outcome: Stratifying Donor and Recipient Polygenic Risk Score to Improve Kidney Allograft Longevity.

Kidney transplantation outcomes arise from complex interactions among donor organ quality, recipient susceptibility, and immunologic compatibility, yet conventional clinical risk models explain only a modest fraction of outcome variability. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) offer a promising framework to enhance transplant risk assessment by integrating genome-wide genetic information from both donor and recipient into biologically informed models. This narrative review examines the mechanistic basis for PRS application in kidney transplantation and variant clustering approaches that link polygenic signals to specific biological pathways underlying alloimmunity, fibrosis, and metabolic dysfunction. We compare current PRS construction methodologies, highlighting their respective strengths and limitations in transplant cohorts. Transplant PRS are distinguished from single-genome disease models by their capacity to capture dual-genome interactions, simultaneously quantifying inherited donor organ liability and recipient genetic susceptibility within an integrated framework. This dual-genome architecture requires novel risk stratification paradigms in which combined donor-recipient polygenic profiles inform pretransplant decision-making in ways that neither genome alone can achieve. However, current PRS contribute only incremental variance beyond established clinical predictors, and critical limitations persist, including European ancestry bias, small cohort sizes, incomplete replication, and undefined clinical actionability thresholds. We critically evaluate these implementation barriers and outline future directions for integrating dual-genome PRS with clinical, molecular, and environmental data. The longer-term goal is to advance precision kidney transplantation through applications such as donor selection, immunosuppression tailoring, and individualized posttransplant surveillance. Realizing this potential will require validation in adequately powered, ancestry diverse, prospective transplant cohorts.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2025

Validation of a genome-wide polygenic score for body mass index in South Asians.

Obesity is a complex disorder, manifested by the interaction of inherited and environmental factors and modulated by a person's lifestyle habits. India has witnessed more than a two-fold increase in the number of overweight adults in the last 30 years. The polygenic risk score (PRS) quantitatively measures an individual's risk for common diseases. The PRS for obesity have been validated in the Caucasian population but not in the South Asian (SAS) population. In this study, we benchmarked and validated the existing genome-wide PRS model of obesity with 2.1 million variants in the SAS population. We analyzed a total of 14,263 individuals from three different South Asian cohorts. We compared the risk score with the body mass index (BMI) categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese) in all three cohorts. High PRS was associated with increased BMI in all the three cohorts. This study also compared validation results from another population-specific PRS model for the BMI. We conclude that high PRS is associated with high BMI in South Asians. Our study suggests that the PRS score can perhaps be an early predictor of overweight and obesity in the South Asian population.

South Asian↗

PubMed2026

Polygenic risk score for early identification of coronary artery disease in a real-world clinical setting within the Latvian patient population.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are increasingly recognized for their potential to improve coronary artery disease (CAD) prediction beyond traditional clinical models. This study evaluated the utility of genome-wide association study (GWAS) - derived PRS and pathway-specific PRS (PS-PRS) in the Latvian population, aiming to assess their association with CAD and compare their predictive performance with conventional risk factors. DESIGN PARTICIPANTS AND MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The study included 90 early-onset CAD patients and 43 controls with no evidence of atherosclerotic lesions on coronary angiography, with next-generation sequencing performed. PRS was calculated using 192 single nucleotide variants identified from the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D GWAS meta-analysis. The predictive accuracy of PRS, PS-PRS, clinical risk factors, and their combinations was analyzed via ROC curves. RESULTS: The average age was 48.7 years in CAD patients and 49.8 in controls. CAD patients showed significantly higher PRS (mean 0.31) compared to controls (mean - 0.65; p < 0.0001). PRS alone had moderate discriminatory power (AUC = 0.773), slightly lower than LDL cholesterol (AUC = 0.775) and total cholesterol (AUC = 0.821). Combining clinical risk factors improved prediction (AUC = 0.872), with the highest accuracy when PRS was integrated with all clinical factors (AUC = 0.933). The PRS distributions were significantly elevated in early-onset CAD patients across the angiogenesis/tissue repair pathway (p = 0.00038), inflammation pathway (p = 0.043), vascular remodelling pathway (p = 0.0116), and pathway of genes with unknown function in atherosclerosis (p = 0.0035), but overall PRS demonstrated superior discrimination compared to pathway-specific PRS. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating PRS enhances early-onset CAD risk prediction. Pathway specific PRS had lower discriminative ability than the overall PRS.

Atherosclerosis↗

PubMed2026

Genetic Susceptibility to Incisional Hernia Evaluation of Hernia Polygenic Risk Scores.

OBJECTIVES: Incisional hernia (IH) affects 13-30% of people after abdominal surgery, resulting in substantial morbidity and costs. While clinical risk factors have been studied extensively, genomic risk for IH is incompletely understood. We aimed to evaluate the impact of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on IH risk prediction. METHODS: We created and evaluated three PRS for abdominal hernia, ventral hernia and latent hernia susceptibility for prediction of IH in an institutional biobank. The primary outcome was defined as the diagnosis or repair of an IH based on ICD-9/10-CM/PCS and CPT codes. Clinical covariates included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, index procedure type, and perioperative surgical site infection. A phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) was performed to assess clinical associations with increased PRS. We then tested the ability of the PRS to improve prediction for IH by modeling clinical covariates with and without PRS in patients who underwent abdominal surgery. Model performance was assessed using 10 iterations of 5-fold cross-validation to estimate Brier scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), which were compared using cross-model Bayesian analysis of variance. RESULTS: In 55,809 subjects, assessed PRS was significantly associated with incisional, umbilical, and ventral hernia on PheWAS, with 1.19 greater odds of developing IH per 1-SD increase in PRS (95% CI: 1.13-1.25, P < 0.001). Of 9,909 subjects who underwent qualifying abdominal surgery, 706 developed IH. In this cohort, the latent hernia susceptibility PRS was associated with a 16% increased hazard of developing IH per 1-SD increase (HR 1.16; 95% CI: 1.07-1.26; P < 0.001). Compared to a predictive model using clinical covariates (Brier score = 0.047, 95% CI: 0.046-0.048; AUROC = 0.660, 95% CI: 0.653-0.666), addition of the PRS showed similar Brier score and AUROC estimates (Brier score = 0.047, 95% CI: 0.046-0.048; AUROC: 0.667, 95% CI: 0.661-0.673) at five years. Cross-model Bayesian analysis demonstrated >99% probability of practical equivalence when trying to detect a difference of ≥ 0.02. CONCLUSION: All three PRS for hernia were independently associated with IH, suggesting that genomic factors contribute significantly to IH development. However, none of the three PRS meaningfully improved clinical IH risk prediction in patients who underwent abdominal surgery. This suggests that clinical comorbidities and surgical techniques may be equally as important as genomic architecture.

Bayesian analysis↗

PubMed2025

Patient stratification by genetic risk in Alzheimer's disease is only effective in the presence of phenotypic heterogeneity.

Case-only designs in longitudinal cohorts are a valuable resource for identifying disease-relevant genes, pathways, and novel targets influencing disease progression. This is particularly relevant in Alzheimer's disease (AD), where longitudinal cohorts measure disease "progression," defined by rate of cognitive decline. Few of the identified drug targets for AD have been clinically tractable, and phenotypic heterogeneity is an obstacle to both clinical research and basic science. In four cohorts (n = 7241), we performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and Mendelian randomization (MR) to discover novel targets associated with progression and assess causal relationships. We tested opportunities for patient stratification by deriving polygenic risk scores (PRS) for AD risk and severity and tested the value of these scores in predicting progression. Genome-wide association studies identified no loci associated with progression at genome-wide significance (α = 5×10-8); MR analyses provided no significant evidence of an association between cognitive decline in AD patients and protein levels in brain, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), and plasma. Polygenic risk scores for AD risk did not reliably stratify fast from slow progressors; however, a deeper investigation found that APOE ε4 status predicts amyloid-β and tau positive versus negative patients (odds ratio for an additional APOE ε4 allele = 5.78 [95% confidence interval: 3.76-8.89], P<0.001) when restricting to a subset of patients with available CSF biomarker data. These results provided no evidence for large-effect, common-variant loci involved in the rate of memory decline, suggesting that patient stratification based on common genetic risk factors for progression may have limited utility. Where clinically relevant biomarkers suggest diagnostic heterogeneity, there is evidence that a priori identified genetic risk factors may have value in patient stratification. Mendelian randomization was less tractable due to the lack of large-effect loci, and future analyses with increased samples sizes are needed to replicate and validate our results.

Alzheimer Disease↗

PubMed2025

Leveraging local ancestry and cross-ancestry genetic architecture to improve genetic prediction of complex traits in admixed populations.

The broader application of polygenic risk score (PRS) is hindered by the limited transferability of PRS developed in Europeans to non-European populations. While many statistical methods have been developed to improve the performance of PRS in non-European populations, most of them focused on discrete genetic ancestry clusters and did not consider admixed individuals. Admixed individuals pose a unique challenge for PRS calculation due to the complexity of local ancestry and cross-ancestry effect sizes. Here, we present a statistical method called SDPR_admix for calculating PRS in admixed individuals. SDPR_admix characterizes the joint distribution of the effect sizes of a genetic variant with two ancestries to be both zero, ancestry enriched, or shared with correlation. SDPR_admix outperformed other methods in simulations and improved the prediction of real traits in European-African admixed individuals in UK Biobank when trained on the Population Architecture using Genomics and Epidemiology (PAGE) dataset (N = 13,000). Deployment of SDPR_admix on All of Us (N = 52,000) further increased the prediction accuracy by approximately 5-fold on average compared with training on PAGE. This enhancement was achieved with manageable computational time and cost, demonstrating the feasibility of training PRS models on large-scale All of Us data. We provided several examples demonstrating that both ancestral-enriched and shared effects, as included in the SDPR_admix prediction model, are helpful for improving polygenic prediction in admixed populations. We also applied SDPR_admix to construct PRS for admixed Americans with mixture of European and Amerindigenous ancestries and showed that SDPR_admix overall outperformed other methods.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Polygenic risk scores in major depressive disorder: A systematic review across diagnostic, treatment, course/severity, and subtype domains.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is heterogeneous across diagnostic, treatment-related, course/severity, and subtype domains. Polygenic risk score (PRS) studies have examined these domains, but differences in PRS sources, samples, methods, and endpoint definitions have fragmented the evidence. We synthesised findings and examined potential contributors to heterogeneity. METHODS: PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science were searched for studies published from January 2016 through 25 November 2025. Result records were synthesised using SWiM, and certainty was assessed with an adapted GRADE framework. RESULTS: Sixty studies contributed 493 retained records; 450 were descriptively classified as positive, null, or reverse, although records were not independent. Positive findings accounted for 44/56 diagnostic, 61/273 treatment-related, 64/100 course/severity, and 14/21 subtype records. For MDD/depression-derived PRSs and case-control MDD status, all 10 contributing studies showed higher liability in cases (exploratory exact sign test p = 0.002; FDR q = 0.004). The same PRS group showed positive findings for overall depressive symptom severity (14/18), although the study-level test was imprecise (5/5 studies; p = 0.063). Pharmacological response/remission findings for these PRSs were mostly null or directionally mixed (10 positive, 18 null, and 9 reverse). Treatment-resistant depression (TRD) findings differed by operational definition. Atypical and psychotic subtype signals arose mainly from single-study PRS and endpoint contrasts. CONCLUSIONS: PRS evidence was clearest for MDD diagnostic status and showed a tentative pattern for overall symptom burden. Treatment and subtype findings were less consistent or less replicated. Larger, ancestrally diverse studies with standardised endpoints and transparent PRS methods are needed.

Humans↗