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Results for “prognostic models”

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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed1990

Validation of prognostic models in primary biliary cirrhosis.

Prognostic models in primary biliary cirrhosis have been validated for large population groups but the predictive value for individual patients has not been tested. We used data from ten deceased patients with primary biliary cirrhosis to test three prognostic models: the Shapiro model (bilirubin); the Christensen model (age, bilirubin, albumin, presence of cirrhosis or cholestasis, azathioprine treatment); and the Dickson model (age, bilirubin, albumin, prothrombin time, oedema). The predictive value of each model for individual patients was determined by assessing whether it would have accurately predicted appropriate timing of liver transplantation in patients prior to death. The Dickson model predicted that four of nine cases would have been considered for liver transplantation one year before death and one of seven cases two years before death. The Christensen model predicted that this procedure would have been considered in three of seven cases two years before death. The Shapiro model was demonstrated to be the least predictive of the three tested. Although none of the three models assessed was found to accurately predict survival, no model predicted a worse survival than actually occurred. Liver transplantation is indicated in those cases with a poor predicted survival.

Aged↗

PubMed1979

A prognostic model for head injury.

A prognostic model for head injured patients was developed. Patients fall into one of four prognostic categories at the end of the first hospital day: I. Discharge alive on or before the seventh hospital day. II. Discharge alive 8--42 days after admission. III. Discharge alive after 42 days, or dead after five years. IV. Discharge dead before five years. The outcome of 63% of the patients was predicted correctly. The model correctly placed, or missed by only one category, 97% of the patients observed. Errors tended to the optimistic side of observed outcomes. Age and pattern of consciousness were critical prognostic factors.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2026

Development and internal validation of a six-gene prognostic model based on galactose metabolism for overall survival in lung adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer remains a leading cause of cancer incidence and mortality globally. Metabolic reprogramming promotes tumor progression and shapes an immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment. Galactose metabolism is involved in multiple malignancies, but its prognostic value in lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) remains unclear. This study aimed to develop and internally validate a galactose metabolism-related multigene prognostic model for LUAD. METHODS: A retrospective prognostic model development and internal validation study was performed using RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and clinical data from 585 LUAD patients in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Differential expression, functional enrichment, univariate and multivariate Cox regression were applied to construct a prognostic gene signature. Internal validation was performed using bootstrap resampling. Model performance was evaluated by time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), C-index, calibration, and Kaplan-Meier analysis. Associations between the model and immune infiltration, immunotherapy responsiveness, and tumor stemness were also analyzed. RESULTS: A six-gene prognostic model (GALT, GANC, PGM1, GALM, B4GALT1, PGM2) was developed. The model showed good discrimination with 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.719, 0.693, and 0.684, respectively. The low-risk group exhibited significantly longer survival, increased antitumor immune infiltration (CD8+ T cells, M1 macrophages, activated CD4+ memory T cells), higher expression of T cell proliferation-related genes, lower immune checkpoint expression, better predicted immunotherapy response, and lower tumor stemness compared with the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated a six-gene prognostic model for LUAD based on galactose metabolism. The model shows moderate prognostic performance and is associated with antitumor immunity and tumor stemness. It may be used for prognostic risk stratification and to guide personalized immunotherapy in LUAD.

Galactose metabolism↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[The prognostic model--an aid for decision-making in the use of adjuvant cytostatic therapy in breast cancer].

The prognostic model as a help in deciding for the application of the adjuvant cytostatic therapy (ACT) in breast cancer is proposed. Risk factors including size of tumour, status of axial, value of hormonal receptors, grade of differentiation of tumour and age are included in the prognostic model. The clinical study comprises patients with breast cancer in premenopausal age with (30 patients) and without ACT (36). By using a multiple regression method and correlation analysis (multivariate analysis), the "weight"--the values of each risk factor have been determined in relation to the disease free interval and survival are obtained by employing the proposed prognostic model. By simple mathematical methods type of therapy is determined by the prognosis. This is the proposed model: Y = beta 0 + beta 1 x x1 + beta 2 x x2 + ... + beta k x xk. Coefficient values for each risk factor have been obtained by this clinical study. Full attention is not paid to the results of the ACT application in this presentation.

Adult↗

PubMed2025

Identification of key genes related to bone metastasis of breast cancer using bioinformatics methods and construction of a prognostic model.

Breast cancer (BC) ranks among the most prevalent cancers in females, with bone metastasis significantly compromising patients' quality of life and survival rates. Enhancing our comprehension of BC bone metastasis mechanisms at the molecular level holds promise for improving BC treatment and prognosis. Leveraging bioinformatics tools, we integrated multiple datasets, conducted comprehensive analyses across various databases, identified biomarkers associated with BC bone metastasis, and constructed a prognostic model. Firstly, 3 BC bone metastasis-related datasets were downloaded from gene expression omnibus, the data were merged, and batch effects were removed, followed by identification of differentially expressed genes (DEGs). Gene ontology and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses were performed on the DEGs. A protein-protein interaction network was constructed using the STRING database to screen hub genes. Then, survival analysis of hub genes was performed using the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. A prognostic model was constructed using key genes with survival differences, and the model was evaluated. Two hundred ninety-two DEGs were identified. Gene ontology and KEGG pathway enrichment analysis yielded 769 biological processes (BPs), 78 cellular components, 43 molecular functions, and 50 KEGG pathways. Fifteen hub genes were selected from the protein-protein interaction network. Survival analysis revealed 6 genes related to BC survival. The prognostic model identified 4 genes with important predictive value for BC prognosis. Our study utilized bioinformatics analysis to identify a series of DEGs related to BC bone metastasis. Based on further selection of hub genes, we constructed a relatively ideal prognostic model for BC, and identified 4 genes (DLGAP5, TPX2, PLK1, and CENPN) with valuable predictive value for BC prognosis.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Machine learning prognostic model and drug survival analysis for lung adenocarcinoma in the context of radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Patients with lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) receiving radiotherapy represent an important but underexplored clinical subgroup. These patients often undergo concomitant pharmacologic treatments, yet the prognostic impact and underlying determinants of such combined regimens remain poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: This retrospective observational study aimed to develop and validate a radiotherapy-specific machine learning prognostic model for LUAD and to compare survival across concomitant pharmacologic regimens. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, using genomic and clinical data from TCGA, a radiotherapy-specific prognostic model for LUAD was developed and validated through ten machine learning algorithms. Survival analyses were conducted across distinct concomitant pharmacologic strategies, followed by functional enrichment to elucidate molecular mechanisms underlying differential outcomes. RESULTS: Demonstrating robust prognostic abilities, the model efficiently sorted patients into high- and low-risk categories. Both treatment type and risk score independently predicted overall survival, with significant interaction effects. Low-risk patients receiving targeted or combination therapy-mainly erlotinib, gefitinib, or bevacizumab-exhibited substantially improved survival compared with those receiving conventional chemotherapy. Enrichment of "Exogenous peptide presentation," "MHC class II assembly," "Peptide-MHC II assembly," and "Symbiotic interaction" pathways indicated immune modulation and host-tumor crosstalk as key mediators of treatment efficacy. CONCLUSION: This study establishes a radiotherapy-specific prognostic model for lung adenocarcinoma, demonstrating distinct molecular and therapeutic heterogeneity and highlighting the superior survival benefit of targeted combination therapy in low-risk patients.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Targeting RELA and STAT3 regulates TNFRSF10A-mediated apoptosis in a novel apoptosis-based prognostic model for clear cell renal cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) is the most common subtype of renal malignancy and remains a major cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Although advances in surgery, targeted therapy, and immunotherapy have improved outcomes for patients, reliable biomarkers for predicting prognosis remain limited. Therefore, robust gene-based prognostic models are urgently needed to improve risk stratification and guide individualized treatment strategies. METHODS: We developed a novel prognostic model integrating apoptosis and immune - related genes (AIRGs) to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with ccRCC. RESULT: Using Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) combined with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, we identified 7 key prognostic genes, namely, CCR4, TNFRSF10A, TEK, TGFA, CD14, IFITM1, and SEMA3G, that collectively demonstrated strong predictive performance in TCGA cohort with c-index = 0.711. Functional enrichment analyses revealed that apoptosis, immune regulation, and multiple oncogenic signaling pathways were significantly associated with the risk score, highlighting the critical role of the tumor microenvironment in ccRCC progression. Transcription factor binding analysis based on the JASPAR database suggested that RELA and STAT3 with scores of 0.829 and 0.951, respectively are potential upstream regulators within the prognostic network, particularly influencing TNFRSF10A expression. External validation using the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) dataset confirmed the robustness of the prognostic model with c-index = 0.612 Furthermore, in vitro experiments demonstrated that RELA and STAT3 regulate TNFRSF10A-mediated apoptotic signaling in ccRCC cells, providing mechanistic support for the bioinformatic findings. CONCLUSION: This study establishes a biologically informed and clinically relevant prognostic framework for ccRCC. Our findings highlight the therapeutic potential of targeting the RELA/STAT3-TNFRSF10A axis and contribute to the advancement of precision medicine in ccRCC.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Benchmark of biomarker identification and prognostic modeling methods on diverse censored data.

The practices of identifying biomarkers and developing prognostic models using genomic data has become increasingly prevalent. Such data often features characteristics that make these practices difficult, namely high dimensionality, correlations between predictors, and sparsity. Many modern methods have been developed to address these problematic characteristics while performing feature selection and prognostic modeling, but a large-scale comparison of their performances in these tasks on diverse right-censored time to event data (aka survival time data) is much needed. We have compiled many existing methods, including some machine learning methods, several which have performed well in previous benchmarks, primarily for comparison in regards to variable selection capability, and secondarily for survival time prediction on many synthetic datasets with varying levels of sparsity, correlation between predictors, and signal strength of informative predictors. For illustration, we have also performed multiple analyses on a publicly available and widely used cancer cohort from The Cancer Genome Atlas using these methods. We evaluated the methods through extensive simulation studies in terms of the false discovery rate, F1-score, concordance index, Brier score, root mean square error, and computation time. Of the methods compared, CoxBoost and the Adaptive LASSO performed well in all metrics, and the LASSO and elastic net excelled when evaluating concordance index and F1-score. The Benjamini-Hoschberg and q-value procedures showed volatile performances in controlling the false discovery rate. Some methods' performances were greatly affected by differences in the data characteristics. With our extensive numerical study, we have identified the best performing methods for a plethora of data characteristics using informative metrics. This will help cancer researchers in choosing the best approach for their needs when working with genomic data.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Prognostic model based on calcium-related genes predicts prognosis and reveals the immune landscape of acute myeloid leukemia.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) exhibits heterogeneous outcomes and lacks reliable prognostic markers. As a critical regulator of cell fate, the prognostic value of calcium signaling in AML requires investigation. This study aimed to construct a calcium-related gene (CRG)-based prognostic model for AML. Differential analysis on RNA-seq data was conducted for AML from The Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). Intersecting differentially expressed genes and CRGs yielded AML-associated differentially expressed CRGs (DECRGs). A prognostic model was developed using univariate/multivariate Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and validated in a GEO dataset. Bioinformatics analyses explored the links between risk groups and immune characteristics, genomic mutations, and drug sensitivity. Key genes' effects on cell proliferation, apoptosis, and differentiation were verified in vitro using CCK-8 assay, colony formation assay, and flow cytometry. The 13-DECRG-based model distinguished high- and low-risk patients in both training and validation cohorts, with high-risk patients showing a worse prognosis. The risk score was an independent prognostic factor. Immune analysis revealed a unique immune microenvironment for the high-risk group. CAMK2A overexpression inhibited cell proliferation and colony-forming ability, promoted cell apoptosis, and induced an increased proportion of CD11b- and CD14-positive cells. In vitro experiments indicated CAMK2A-induced suppression of AML cells' malignant phenotype by activating the P53 signaling pathway. An AML CRG-based model with favorable risk stratification performance was constructed. In vitro experiments revealed CAMK2A-induced inhibition of the malignant phenotype via suppressing proliferation, promoting apoptosis, and facilitating myeloid differentiation in AML cells. This study provides novel evidence for understanding CRGs in AML as well as the potential functions of CAMK2A.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2025

Construction of a prognostic model for gastric cancer based on immune infiltration and microenvironment, and exploration of MEF2C gene function.

BACKGROUND: Advanced gastric cancer (GC) exhibits a high recurrence rate and a dismal prognosis. Myocyte enhancer factor 2c (MEF2C) was found to contribute to the development of various types of cancer. Therefore, our aim is to develop a prognostic model that predicts the prognosis of GC patients and initially explore the role of MEF2C in immunotherapy for GC. METHODS: Transcriptome sequence data of GC was obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) and PRJEB25780 cohort for subsequent immune infiltration analysis, immune microenvironment analysis, consensus clustering analysis and feature selection for definition and classification of gene M and N. Principal component analysis (PCA) modeling was performed based on gene M and N for the calculation of immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) Score. Then, a Nomogram was constructed and evaluated for predicting the prognosis of GC patients, based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Functional enrichment analysis was performed to initially investigate the potential biological mechanisms. Through Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC) dataset, the estimated IC50 values of several chemotherapeutic drugs were calculated. Tumor-related transcription factors (TFs) were retrieved from the Cistrome Cancer database and utilized our model to screen these TFs, and weighted correlation network analysis (WGCNA) was performed to identify transcription factors strongly associated with immunotherapy in GC. Finally, 10 patients with advanced GC were enrolled from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, including paired tumor tissues, paracancerous tissues and peritoneal metastases, for preparing sequencing library, in order to perform external validation. RESULTS: Lower ICI Score was correlated with improved prognosis in both the training and validation cohorts. First, lower mutant-allele tumor heterogeneity (MATH) was associated with lower ICI Score, and those GC patients with lower MATH and lower ICI Score had the best prognosis. Second, regardless of the T or N staging, the low ICI Score group had significantly higher overall survival (OS) compared to the high ICI Score group. For its mechanisms, consistently, for Camptothecin, Doxorubicin, Mitomycin, Docetaxel, Cisplatin, Vinblastine, Sorafenib and Paclitaxel, all of the IC50 values were significantly lower in the low ICI Score group compared to the high ICI Score group. As a result, based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression, ICI Score was considered to be an independent prognostic factor for GC. And our Nomogram showed good agreement between predicted and actual probabilities. Based on CIBERSORT deconvolution analysis, there was difference of immune cell composition found between high and low ICI Score groups, probably affecting the efficacy of immunotherapy. Then, MEF2C, a tumor-related transcription factor, was screened out by WGCNA analysis. Higher MEF2C expression is significantly correlated with a worse OS. Moreover, its higher expression is also negatively correlated with tumor mutation burden (TMB) and microsatellite instability (MSI), but positively correlated with several immunosuppressive molecules, indicating MEF2C may exert its influence on tumor development by upregulating immunosuppressive molecules. Finally, based on transcriptome sequencing data on 10 paired tumor tissues from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, MEF2C expression was significantly lower in paracancerous tissues compared to tumor tissues and peritoneal metastases, and it was also lower in tumor tissues compared to peritoneal metastases, indicating a potential positive association between MEF2C expression and tumor invasiveness. CONCLUSIONS: Our prognostic model can effectively predict outcomes and facilitate stratification GC patients, offering valuable insights for clinical decision-making. The identified transcription factor MEF2C can serve as a biomarker for assessing the efficacy of immunotherapy for GC.

Humans↗

PubMed2024

Construction and Analysis of a Mitochondrial Metabolism-Related Prognostic Model for Breast Cancer to Evaluate Survival and Immunotherapy.

As one of the most prevalent malignancies among women, breast cancer (BC) is tightly linked to metabolic dysfunction. However, the correlation between mitochondrial metabolism-related genes (MMRGs) and BC remains unclear. The training and validation datasets for BC were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas and Gene Expression Omnibus databases, respectively. MMRG-related data were obtained from the Molecular Signatures Database. A risk score prognostic model incorporating MMRGs was established based on univariate, LASSO, and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Independent factors affecting BC prognosis were identified through regression analysis and presented in a nomogram. Single-sample gene set enrichment analysis was employed to assess the immune levels of high-risk (HR) and low-risk (LR) groups. The sensitivity of BC patients in the two groups to common anti-tumor drugs was evaluated by utilizing the Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer database. 12 MMRGs significantly associated with survival were selected from 1234 MMRGs. A 12-gene risk score prognostic model was built. In the multivariate regression analysis incorporating classical clinical factors, the MMRG-related risk score remained an independent prognostic factor. As revealed by tumor immune microenvironment analysis, the LR group with higher survival rates had elevated immune levels. The drug sensitivity results unmasked that the LR group demonstrated higher sensitivity to Irinotecan, Nilotinib, and Oxaliplatin, while the HR group demonstrated higher sensitivity to Lapatinib. The development of MMRG characteristics provides a comprehensive understanding of mitochondrial metabolism in BC, aiding in the prediction of prognosis and tumor microenvironment, and offering promising therapeutic choices for BC patients with different MMRG risk scores.

Humans↗

PubMed1989

Prognosis of aggressive lymphomas: a study of five prognostic models with patients included in the LNH-84 regimen.

Four prognostic models described for aggressive malignant lymphomas and the classical Ann Arbor staging system were used to compare the survival of 737 patients treated with the LNH-84 regimen. The aim of the study was to determine the optimal prognostic system at the time of diagnosis. Three institutions have described these models after multivariate analyses: the Dana Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI1 and DFCI2), the MD Anderson Hospital (MDAH), and the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC). The models were constructed with the following variables: performance status, LDH level, and tumor extension. The latter is the most difficult to assess: it was considered as the number of extranodal sites and the diameter of the largest mass in DFCI1, stage and the diameter of the largest mass in DFCI2, the number of extranodal and extensive nodal sites in MDAH, and the number of nodal sites and their localization in MSKCC. Univariate studies with LNH-84 regimen patients showed all these variables to have major prognostic significance (logrank tests: P less than 10(-4)). All five prognostic systems divided patients into three subgroups: good, intermediate, and poor prognosis. Logrank analyses of survival showed highly significant differences (X2 greater than 90 and P less than 10(-6)) between the subgroups. No gross difference was found between the models, and none was better than the others. A new, internationally accepted prognostic system for the expression and comparison of treatment results in aggressive malignant lymphomas should include major univariate prognostic parameters and must be reliable and easy to use in clinical practice. Until such time, stage or LDH level are the best alternatives.

Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols↗

PubMed2026

Non-small cell lung cancer and tumor-educated platelets: screening of biomarkers and construction of a prognostic model.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, emphasizing the urgent need for effective early detection strategies. Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) provides a unique perspective on tumor pathogenesis, focusing on concepts such as "long-term stasis leading to accumulation". Tumor-educated platelets (TEPs) offer potential as biomarkers due to their ability to reflect cancer heterogeneity and facilitate less invasive diagnostic approaches. This study aims to identify TEP-related prognostic biomarkers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to construct and validate a multigene prognostic model by integrating platelet transcriptomic data with tumor tissue datasets. METHODS: We performed comprehensive analysis of gene expression datasets obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) repositories to characterize transcriptomic differences among lung cancer specimens, normal tissue samples, and TEPs. Using R software, we identified Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) and subsequently applied a multi-stage analytical pipeline to TEP-associated DEGs, incorporating univariate Cox proportional hazards regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, multivariate Cox regression, and stepwise regression modeling to pinpoint genes with prognostic significance. These prognostically relevant genes served as the foundation for developing a risk stratification model. We computed individual risk scores across both training and validation cohorts, enabling patient stratification into high- and low-risk categories. Model robustness was assessed through internal cross-validation and external validation procedures, while predictive performance was quantified using risk calibration metrics and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: Through systematic bioinformatics screening, we identified a four-gene prognostic signature comprising NELL2, C4orf48, PRAM1, and KLHL35, which served as the foundation for developing our risk stratification algorithm. Rigorous internal cross-validation and external cohort validation substantiated the moderate predictive performance of this signature. Comprehensive clinicopathological correlation analysis revealed that elevated risk indices, advanced pathological staging (stage III-IV), increased primary tumor dimensions, regional lymph node metastasis, and distant organ dissemination each demonstrated statistically significant associations with diminished overall survival (OS) outcomes in lung cancer patients. The clinical nomogram exhibited acceptable calibration, with calibration plots showing reasonable concordance between predicted and observed survival probabilities across all time points. Discriminative capacity assessment via time-dependent ROC analysis yielded area under the curve (AUC) values consistently surpassing 0.6, confirming moderate prognostic discrimination. Furthermore, decision curve analysis (DCA) demonstrated that our integrated multi-gene model conferred potential net clinical benefit compared to individual prognostic variables across the full spectrum of clinically relevant threshold probabilities (0-1 range), thereby establishing its potential utility for risk-informed clinical decision-making. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified NELL2, C4orf48, PRAM1, and KLHL35 as candidate TEP-related prognostic biomarkers for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The developed prognostic model shows preliminary potential for patient stratification, but its clinical application, particularly as a platelet-based liquid biopsy tool, requires further validation in independent TEP-based cohorts.

Tumor-educated platelets (TEPs)↗

PubMed2026

Development of m6A-related prognostic models for survival in lung squamous cell carcinoma with different PD-L1 expression levels.

BACKGROUND: Programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) is widely used in the clinical context of immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy, but its relationship with N6-methyladenosine (m6A) RNA methylation in lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) has not been well defined. This study aimed to investigate the association between PD-L1 messenger RNA (mRNA) expression and m6A regulator expression patterns and to develop exploratory m6A-based prognostic models in LUSC. METHODS: Transcriptome data from 502 patients with LUSC were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). Patients were divided into PD-L1 high-expression (PHE) and PD-L1 low-expression (PLE) groups according to the median PD-L1 mRNA level. Differential expression and correlation analyses were performed for 30 m6A regulators. Transcriptome sequencing data from surgical specimens from 28 Asian patients with LUSC were used for expression-pattern comparison. Principal component analysis (PCA), univariate Cox regression, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-Cox regression were used to construct prognostic models in the TCGA cohort. RESULTS: In the TCGA cohort, the main differentially expressed m6A regulators between the two PD-L1 groups were YTHDF2 (P<0.001), IGF2BP3 (P<0.001), and YTHDC2 (P<0.001). In the Asian cohort, ALKBH5 (P=0.008) and ZC3H13 (P=0.03) showed significant differences. LASSO-Cox models were constructed for the overall LUSC cohort and for the PHE and PLE subgroups. The overall model included METTL3, HNRNPC, and CBLL1, with a 5-year time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.579. The 5-year AUCs were 0.742 in the PHE subgroup and 0.652 in the PLE subgroup. The risk score remained independently associated with prognosis in multivariate Cox analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In LUSC, PD-L1 mRNA status was associated with distinct m6A regulator expression profiles. In the TCGA cohort, the PHE subgroup showed higher expression of CBLL1, G3BP1, IGF2BP3, FMR1, and YTHDC2, but lower expression of VIRMA, YTHDF2, and PRRC2A compared with the PLE subgroup. In the National Cancer Center/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences (CICAMS) cohort, ALKBH5 and ZC3H13 were more highly expressed in the PHE subgroup. Moreover, m6A-based risk models were associated with survival outcomes, with significant prognostic separation in the overall TCGA cohort and the PHE subgroup, whereas the PLE subgroup showed a weaker survival separation.

Lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC)↗

PubMed2026

GCH1, identified by a ferroptosis-related prognostic model, contributes to progression and drug resistance of esophageal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Esophageal cancer has a poor prognosis and limited treatment options. Ferroptosis, an iron-dependent cell death pathway, is a promising therapeutic target; however, its significance in esophageal cancer remains largely unexplored. Here, we investigated the prognostic significance of ferroptosis-related genes in esophageal cancer and identified a key functional regulator that may serve as a therapeutic target. METHODS: We analyzed ferroptosis-related gene expression profiles with The Cancer Genome Atlas-Esophageal Carcinoma (TCGA-ESCA) cohort and constructed a prognostic risk model using LASSO Cox regression analysis. Among the genes in this model, GTP cyclohydrolase 1 (GCH1) was selected for functional investigation, based on its established role in antioxidant defense. Subsequently, in vitro experiments were performed to assess the effects of GCH1 knockdown on cell proliferation, migration, clonogenicity, and ferroptosis-related biochemical indicators. The role of GCH1 in antitumor immunity was evaluated through co-culture of esophageal cancer cells with activated T cells, and drug sensitivity was assessed using cytotoxicity assays. RESULTS: A prognostic model consisting of nine ferroptosis-related genes (STC2, TRIB3, HMGB3, CXCL8, GCH1, PARP10, APOE, MTIM, and GPER1) with reliable risk stratification was constructed. The prognostic model could reflect the differences in drug responses and immune cell infiltration. GCH1 knockdown suppressed esophageal cancer cell proliferation, migration, and clonogenicity. Furthermore, GCH1 knockdown increased the intracellular levels of reactive oxygen species, lipid peroxidation, and ferrous iron (Fe2+). Co-culture assays demonstrated that GCH1 knockdown in tumor cells increased the production of granzyme B and interferon-γ by CD8+ T cells. Moreover, GCH1 silencing sensitized esophageal cancer cells to both sorafenib and cisplatin. CONCLUSIONS: This study established a ferroptosis-related prognostic model for esophageal cancer and identified GCH1 as a critical regulator that contributes to esophageal cancer progression and drug resistance. These findings suggest that targeting GCH1 may be a promising strategy to improve drug sensitivity and clinical outcomes in esophageal cancer.

Esophageal cancer↗

PubMed1990

The relative value of conventional staging procedures for developing prognostic models in extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer.

Published prognostic models for small-cell lung cancer (SCLC) have either combined limited- and extensive-stage patients or have not included standard anatomic staging information to assess the relative value of the knowledge of specific sites and number of sites of metastases in predicting survival in extensive-stage disease. We studied 136 extensive-stage patients in whom traditional staging procedures were performed and in whom other previously demonstrated significant pretreatment variables were determined. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, when all data were included, three variables were significant: performance status (PS) (P = .0001), number of sites of metastases (P = .0010), and age (P = .0029). A prognostic algorithm was developed using these variables, which divided the patients into three distinct groups. When the anatomic staging data were omitted, the serum albumin (P = .0313) was the only variable in addition to PS (P = .0001) and age (P = .0064) that was significant. An alternative algorithm using these three variables was nearly as predictive as the original. Therefore, in extensive-stage patients, reasonable pretreatment prognostic information can be obtained without using the number or specific sites of metastases as variables once the presence of distant metastases has been demonstrated.

Carcinoma, Small Cell↗

PubMed2025

Liver cancer-specific prognostic model developed using endoplasmic reticulum stress-related LncRNAs and LINC01011 as a potential therapeutic target.

Liver cancer is a serious malignancy worldwide, and long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been implicated in its prognosis.It remains unclear how lncRNAs related to endoplasmic reticulum stress (ERS) influence liver cancer prognosis. Here, we analyzed RNA and clinical data from the Cancer Genome Atlas and sourced ERS-related genes from the Molecular Signatures Database. Co-expression analysis identified ERS-related lncRNAs, and Cox regression analysis as well as least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression highlighted three lncRNAs for a prognostic model. Based on median risk scores, we classified patients into two risk groups. The high-risk group displayed poor prognosis, and this finding was validated in the test set. According to consistency clustering, the patients were assigned to two clusters, and tumor microenvironment scores were computed. Patients with a high mutation burden had worse outcomes. Furthermore, immune infiltration analysis indicated more immune cells and mutations in checkpoint molecules among high-risk individuals. Drug sensitivity varied between the risk groups. LINC01011 was selected for functional assays. Colony formation assay and CCK-8 assay revealed that silencing LINC01011 suppressed liver cancer cell proliferation. Transwell and scratch assays indicated that silencing LINC01011 inhibited liver cancer cell migration. Western blotting assay revealed that inhibiting LINC01011 induced apoptosis and simultaneously inhibited epithelial-mesenchymal transition. These findings confirm the validity of the prognostic model and indicate that LINC01011 could serve as a potential research target.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Integrating single-cell transcriptomics to construct an oncogene-driven prognostic model and elucidate metabolic-immune crosstalk in hepatocellular carcinoma.

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths, its progression and treatment heterogeneity are mainly influenced by driver gene and tumor micro-environment (TME) interactions. Nevertheless, the mechanisms of this process at the single-cell level remain unclear. This study integrated TCGA and multi-center single-cell transcriptome data to identify a 575 genes HCC-specific core set, developing a single-cell "oncogene scoring" system to quantify individual carcinogenic activity. This score is significantly elevated in malignant and proliferative T cells and is closely associated with metabolic reprogramming, aberrant cell‒cell communication, and immunosuppressive phenotypes. Based on these characteristics, we constructed a machine learning-based Random Survival Forest (RSF) prognostic model validated in multiple independent cohorts, which classifies patients into distinct risk subtypes. The high-risk group exhibits genomic instability, increased tumor stemness, and immune evasion, while the low-risk group was more sensitive to drugs such as sorafenib. This study highlights the potential pathways by which high oncogenic activity is associated with HCC progression, suggesting a profound link with single-cell metabolic‒immune crosstalk. The constructed RSF model offers a promising computational framework for risk stratification and provides hypothesis-generating insights that may inform future personalized treatment strategies for HCC patients.

Hepatocellular carcinoma↗