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At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed1997

Methodological issues in testing the hypothesis of risk compensation.

The hypothesis of risk compensation implies that persons experiencing a real or perceived change in the riskiness of an activity will alter their consumption of that activity to obtain a preferred combination of risk and reward. In evaluating whether individuals display compensating behavior in response to safety interventions, not all persons subject to the intervention will necessarily display compensating behavior, even if the hypothesis is correct: the hypothesis has testable implications only for the subset of persons subject to the intervention who perceive that their risk has changed. This paper argues that methodologies that include persons for whom the hypothesis has no testable implications (against a null hypothesis of no compensation effect) result in estimates of the compensation effect and test statistics which are biased towards zero. Previously published data on motor-vehicle-related injuries to cyclists and pedestrians in Britain before and after a mandatory safety-belt-use law went into effect were used to infer the size of this bias. In these data, the inclusion of persons for whom the hypothesis of risk compensation has no testable implications appears to have resulted in estimates of a risk-compensation effect which are too small by about half. This work suggests that the British data are consistent with a risk-compensation effect of 7-13 percent, and raises important methodological issues in testing the hypothesis of risk compensation.

Accidents, Traffic↗

PubMed2004

Does a perception of increased blood safety mean increased blood transfusion? An assessment of the risk compensation theory in Canada.

BACKGROUND: The risk compensation theory is a widely used concept in transport economics to analyze driver risk behaviour. This article explores the feasibility of applying the theory in blood transfusion to raise important questions regarding the increased blood safety measures and their possible effects on blood usage (e.g., the appropriateness in transfusion). Further, it presents the findings of a pilot survey of physicians in Canada. DISCUSSION: While studies have attempted to define transfusion appropriateness, this article argues that if the risk compensation theory holds true for transfusion practice, physicians may actually be transfusing more. This may increase the possibility of contracting other unknown risks, such as the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD), as well as increasing the risk of non-infectious transfusion risks, such as transfusion reactions. SUMMARY: A much larger study involving psychosocial assessment of physician decision making process to fully assess physician behaviour within the context of risk compensation theory and transfusion practice in Canada is needed to further explore this area.

Attitude of Health Personnel↗

PubMed1988

An experimental test of risk compensation: between-subject versus within-subject analyses.

This study examined parameters under which risk compensation in driving can occur following the use of safety belts. Risk compensation theories hypothesize that if individuals use safety belts, they will drive in a more risky manner than if they do not use safety belts due to an increased perception of safety. Although the existence of risk compensation in driving has been debated in the literature for many years, the current study was the first experimental analysis of this theory that permitted a controlled examination of both between-subject and within-subject effects. This study required subjects to drive a 5-hp. go-kart around an oval track either buckled or unbuckled in the first of two phases of 15 driving trials. After the first phase the safety condition was switched for half the subjects (i.e., the safety belt was removed from subjects using it or was used by subjects who previously did not use it). Dependent measures included latency for each lap, deviations from the prescribed lane, and perceived safety while driving. The amount of time it took for subjects to travel to the go-kart track and their safety belt use during that trip was also measured. Risk compensation theory was not supported in the between-subject analyses of the research data; however, some within-subject comparisons did demonstrate risk compensation. Subjects who switched from not using the safety belt to using it increased driving speed during the second phase significantly more than subjects who used the safety belt during both driving phases. The study suggested that the occurrence of risk compensation is dependent upon individuals being able to compare the sensations using a safety belt with those of not using a safety belt. Risk compensation did not manifest itself in between-subject studies because this comparison could not take place. The implications of this study to driving automobiles on multi-user roadways is discussed. Suggestions for research to further expand the knowledge about how and when risk compensation occurs are also provided.

Acceleration↗

PubMed2006

Risk-compensation behavior in children: myth or reality?

OBJECTIVE: To assess risk compensation and risk homeostasis theory in children. DESIGN: We used a case-control study design in children aged 8 to 18 years who had an injury while participating in an activity that did or could entail the use of protective equipment (PE). SETTING: Montreal Children's Hospital emergency department from December 1, 2001, to November 30, 2002. PARTICIPANTS: We interviewed consenting children and compared the reports of risk-taking behaviors in those who did and those who did not report using PE. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Indicators of risk-taking behavior and injury severity. RESULTS: A total of 674 children presented with injuries during the study, and 394 were interviewed (235 PE users and 159 nonusers). There was no evidence of an association between indicators of risk-taking behavior and PE use after adjusting for age, sex, personality, and type of activity and no relationship between injury severity and PE use. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study provide no support for hypotheses about risk homeostasis theory among children using PE. The validity of the theory appears highly doubtful for children in this age range.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1993

Risk compensation and the Illinois seat belt use law.

The question of whether drivers alter their behavior due to vehicle safety improvements or public policy changes (laws, enforcement) has been debated for some years. The possibility of risk compensation (offsetting behavior) has been offered: drivers may go faster or operate in a less safe manner in response to such a change. Three 1991 publications purportedly find risk compensation due to mandatory seat belt use laws. However, these conclusions are questionable due to the weaknesses in statistical methods that were used (before/after comparisons, regression). This paper examines whether risk compensation occurred due to the 1985 use law in Illinois. It also compares the results of the before/after method to a preferred technique (ARIMA, developed by Box and others). These approaches are applied to monthly totals and rates of fatalities, injuries classified by level of severity, and total accidents from 1980-1991. Three types of accident are analyzed: vehicle/pedestrian, vehicle/bicycle, and all others. If nonoccupants have suffered adverse consequences, risk compensation could provide the explanation. Much less evidence of offsetting behavior was found. No statistically significant increase in accidents occurred. While other types of safety changes may alter driver behavior, this did not seem to occur in Illinois due to the belt use law.

Accidents, Traffic↗

PubMed1995

Perceived risk and modal choice: risk compensation in transportation systems.

A transportation mode choice analysis is performed that examines behavioral responses to perceived risk in the choice of mode for daily commute trips. This methodology provides a technique for examining, by means of disaggregate individual level data, risk-compensating effects in transportation systems. Various measures of perceived risk are examined for explaining modal choice. Other studies have described how safety regulations have resulted in increases in "driving intensity." This study defines one component of driving intensity to be the increased probability of commuting by automobile. The results show that modal shifts occur when risk perceptions for a given mode are reduced. To demonstrate potential risk-compensating effects within the transportation system, an estimate of changes in accident fatalities due to commuting is derived using rough estimates of fatalities per person-mile travelled. It is shown that a given change in the perceived risk of commuting by automobile results in a less than proportionate change in net commuting fatalities. The relative magnitude is dependent on how objective reductions in risk translate into perceived reductions in risk. This study also shows that perceived safety improvements in bicycle transportation have an aggregate elasticity value that is greater than one. This means that bicycle safety improvements attract proportionately more people to bicycle commuting (i.e. a 10% increase in safety results in a greater than 10% increase in the share of people bicycle commuting).

Accidents, Traffic↗

PubMed2003

Risk compensation theory and voluntary helmet use by cyclists in Spain.

OBJECTIVE: To obtain empirical data that might support or refute the existence of a risk compensation mechanism in connection with voluntary helmet use by Spanish cyclists. DESIGN: A retrospective case series. SETTING: Spain, from 1990 to 1999. SUBJECTS: All 22 814 cyclists involved in traffic crashes with victims, recorded in the Spanish Register of Traffic Crashes with Victims, for whom information regarding helmet use was available. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Crude and adjusted odds ratios for the relation between committing a traffic violation and using a helmet. RESULTS: Fifty four percent of the cyclists committed a traffic violation other than a speeding infraction. Committing a traffic violation was associated with a lower frequency of helmet use (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.63, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58 to 0.69). Cycling at excessive or dangerous speed, a violation observed in 4.5% of the sample, was not significantly associated with helmet use either alone (aOR 0.95, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.61) or in combination with any other violation (aOR 0.97, 95% CI 0.79 to 1.20). CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that the subgroup of cyclists with a higher risk of suffering a traffic crash are also those in which the health consequences of the crash will probably be higher. Although the findings do not support the existence of a strong risk compensation mechanism among helmeted cyclists, this possibility cannot be ruled out.

Accidents, Traffic↗

PubMed1993

Modelling of safety measure effects and risk compensation.

A model is proposed for the description of effects of safety measures introduced into a road transport system. The model explains the motives of road users' risk compensation towards the measures, and indicates when behavioural adaptation is likely to take place and its effects on road safety programmes. At its core the model has the notion that when a transport system is changed by engineering safety measures, road users do not respond only in the direction towards safety improvement but respond, in general, with three possible ways of behavioural adaptations, one of them towards more risk taking. Supported by illustrative examples, it also suggests that due to risk compensation, engineering safety measures alone are usually not sufficient, and, hopefully, carefully designed motivational safety measures can give us chances to modify road users' behaviour to make traffic safer.

Accidents, Traffic↗

PubMed2001

Sexual risk compensation and HIV/STD transmission: empirical evidence and theoretical considerations.

This study was conducted to answer the question, "Are sexual risk behaviors subject to compensation?" For example, do people who increase their use of condoms compensate for this reduction in human immunodeficiency virus and sexually transmitted disease (HIV/STD) risk by engaging in more overall acts of intercourse or by having sex with more partners than before? Utilizing the HIV prevention literature, studies in which participants demonstrated sexual risk compensation were identified. A simple HIV/STD transmission model was applied to these data to determine whether compensation produced a net increase in HIV/STD risk, despite positive changes in one or more aspects of sexual behavior. Although a number of studies were found in which there were simultaneous increases in condom use and the overall number of acts of intercourse, in none of these instances was there an overall increase in HIV/STD risk. Moreover, none of these studies reported concomitant increases in the number of sex partners. Extensive modeling exercises also were conducted to determine the theoretical conditions under which compensation would produce a net increase in risk. The results of the modeling exercise indicated that relatively small increases in overall sexual activity could be sufficient to offset risk-reduction gains due to increased condom use in populations in which baseline condom use is very low. In sum, although sexual risk compensation occurs, no empirical evidence was found that this compensation is sufficient to offset reductions in risk due to greater condom use, despite the theoretical plausibility of this scenario.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2005

[Switching sickness funds and risk compensation mechanisms in the statutory health insurance system in Germany--empirical results from the cooperative health research in the region of Augsburg (KORA)].

Since 1996, all citizens of the Federal Republic of Germany who are insured in the statutory health insurance system are entitled to switch their sickness fund. The rationale of this regulation was to strengthen elements of competition in this system in order to stimulate the sickness funds to improve the efficiency of health care and to respond to consumers' preferences. Simultaneously, to avoid the implicit incentives for sickness funds to engage in risk selection, a risk compensation mechanism was introduced, including as morbidity-related risk adjusters age, sex and incapacity to work. Based on the KORA survey S4 (1999/2001) we take the case of switching behaviour in the region of Augsburg, and analyse whether this risk adjustment scheme was working effectively. The results show that persons changing their sickness fund were characterised by a comparatively smaller burden of chronic diseases and by a less frequent utilization of inpatient health care. Under these conditions, differences in the contribution rates do not accurately reflect differences in the performance and efficiency of sickness funds. Moreover, the migration of good risk to sickness funds with favourable contribution rates threatens the principle of financial solidarity. Therefore, the system of risk equalisation has to be developed towards measuring the risk volume borne by the sickness funds more precisely than hitherto.

Adult↗

PubMed1985