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PubMed2026

Association of Baloxavir Treatment Timing with Serial Interval and Household Transmission of Influenza through a Likelihood-Based Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Baloxavir treatment is associated with reduced influenza transmission within households, and the serial interval varies by treatment status. However, it remains unclear how baloxavir-induced changes in the serial interval relate to household transmission. We aimed to quantify the model-based association between baloxavir treatment timing and the serial interval and household transmission risk. METHODS: We conducted a household survey of influenza cases in Japan between October 2018 and February 2019. We defined the likelihood-based model integrating the serial interval distribution by treatment status and the secondary attack rate (SAR) using individual-level data from index cases. Using this model, we estimated the reduction in the serial interval associated with baloxavir treatment. RESULTS: Compared with untreated index cases, baloxavir-treated cases were estimated to have a serial interval density reduced by 21.42% following treatment. Treatment within 24 hours was associated with a 0.1685 reduction in the area under the curve, with smaller reductions as treatment was delayed. Earlier treatment was associated with a shorter, more concentrated distribution, whereas treatment 72 hours after onset resembled untreated cases. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight that baloxavir treatment is associated with a shorter serial interval and lower estimated secondary household transmission risk. We provide model-based estimates suggesting that earlier administration is associated with a greater reduction in serial interval density and estimated transmission risk, which may inform public health strategies for infection control.

Influenza↗

PubMed2026

The diagnostic potential of combined quantitative polymerase chain reaction and next-generation sequencing using the same primers for periprosthetic joint infection.

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) enables the detection of specific pathogens unidentifiable by conventional cultures, but its application in orthopedics remains inconsistent due to background contamination and irreproducible findings. This study evaluated the diagnostic performance of a novel workflow combining broad-range 16S rRNA gene quantitative PCR (qPCR) screening with downstream NGS, focusing on bacterial biomass thresholds. The qPCR assay demonstrated excellent intrarater reliability, with an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.961 (95% confidence interval, 0.881 to 0.997). Based on serially diluted positive controls, a quantitative threshold of 10⁵ CFU/mL was established as the minimum concentration required for the consistent detection of fastidious taxa, such as Escherichia coli. When evaluated against conventional cultures using 95 sonicate fluid and 276 pre/intraoperative tissue samples, the qPCR assay achieved a sensitivity of 80% and a specificity of 72%. Subsequent NGS sequencing of 26 clinical samples and 9 controls showed concordance in 4 of 6 culture-positive infected cases with NGS taxonomy, whereas the remaining discrepancies were likely attributable to culture-based phenotypic misidentification. Notably, among the qPCR-positive cases, three were culture-negative, including two hip prosthesis loosening cases exhibiting polymicrobial profiles, and one post-traumatic osteoarthritis case harboring low-level Staphylococcus. Crucially, this post-traumatic patient developed delayed periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) 2 years post-surgery, with cultures identifying Staphylococcus previously detected by the initial NGS analysis. Integrating qPCR screening with targeted NGS effectively refines pathogen identification, filters environmental artifacts, and overcomes the diagnostic limitations of culture-negative infections in orthopedic practice.IMPORTANCENext-generation sequencing (NGS) enables the detection of specific pathogens in clinical samples that are not identifiable by conventional methods. However, NGS applications in orthopedics have not been quantitatively evaluated, and findings have been inconsistent owing to contaminants and the presence of non-credible causative organisms. These factors primarily stem from the failure to evaluate low-biomass samples and the absence of proper controls, such as negative controls or mock community DNA samples. This study demonstrates that interpreting results from low-biomass samples requires careful consideration because NGS relies on relative bacterial abundances; distinguishing likely pathogens from contaminants is particularly challenging when bacterial loads are low. We demonstrated that combining NGS with quantitative PCR (qPCR) and applying a Cq cutoff can reduce false positives.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

Genomic and clinical epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in coastal Kenya: insights into variant circulation, reinfection, and multiple lineage importations during a post-pandemic wave.

BACKGROUND: Between November 2023 and March 2024, coastal Kenya experienced another wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections detected through our continued genomic surveillance. Herein, we report the clinical and genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infections from 179 individuals (a total of 185 positive samples) residing in the Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) area (~ 900 km2). METHODS: We analyzed genetic, clinical, and epidemiological data from SARS-CoV-2 positive cases across pediatric inpatient, health facility outpatient, and homestead community surveillance platforms. Phylogenetic analyses were performed using maximum-likelihood and Bayesian frameworks. Temporal trends were summarized, comparisons conducted using Kruskal-Wallis and Wilcoxon tests, and associations examined using univariate and multivariable logistic regression models. RESULTS: Sixteen SARS-CoV-2 lineages within 3 subvariants [XBB.2.3-like (58.4%), JN.1-like (40.5%), and XBB.1-like (1.1%)] were identified. The symptomatic infection rate was estimated at 16.0% (95% CI, 11.1-23.9%) based on community testing regardless of symptom status and did not differ across the subvariants (p = 0.13). The most common infection symptoms in community cases were cough (49.2%), fever (27.0%), sore throat (7.3%), headache (6.9%), and difficulty in breathing (5.5%). One case succumbed to the infection. Genomic analysis of the virus from serial positive samples confirmed repeat infections among 5 participants under follow-up (median interval 21 days, range 16-95 days); in 4 participants, the same virus lineage was responsible in both episodes, whereas 1 participant had a different lineage in the second compared with the first episode. Phylogenetic analysis including > 18,000 contemporaneous global sequences provided evidence for at least 38 independent virus introduction events into the study area (KHDSS) during the wave, the majority likely originating in North America and Europe. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights that coastal Kenya, like most other localities, continues to face new SARS-CoV-2 infection waves characterized by circulation of new variants, multiple lineage importations, and reinfections. Locally, the virus may circulate unrecognized, as most infections are asymptomatic in part due to high population immunity after several waves of infection. Our findings highlight the need for sustained SARS-CoV-2 surveillance to inform appropriate public health responses, such as scheduled vaccination for populations at risk of severe infection.

COVID-19↗

PubMed2026

Neoadjuvant Paclitaxel, Trastuzumab, and Pertuzumab for Stage II to III, ERBB2-Positive Breast Cancer: A Secondary Analysis of the DAPHNe Trial.

IMPORTANCE: The neoadjuvant combination of paclitaxel, trastuzumab, and pertuzumab (THP) represents a promising abbreviated regimen for early-stage ERBB2-positive breast cancer, but long-term outcomes and the role of ultrasensitive circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) monitoring remain incompletely defined. OBJECTIVE: To assess 5-year outcomes and characterize ctDNA dynamics with an ultrasensitive assay in patients with ERBB2-positive breast cancer receiving neoadjuvant THP. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This study was a prespecified secondary analysis of the prospective, single-arm, investigator-initiated phase 2 DAPHNe nonrandomized clinical trial. Patients were enrolled in the DAPHNe trial from November 2018 to January 2020. The trial took place at a multicenter academic cancer center and affiliated community practices. Participants included patients with stage II to III ERBB2-positive breast cancer receiving neoadjuvant THP for 12 weeks. Ultrasensitive ctDNA analyses were performed in patients with available tumor tissue and serial plasma samples. The secondary analysis was conducted between between March 2023 and April 2025. INTERVENTIONS: Neoadjuvant THP administered for 12 weeks, followed by surgery and adjuvant therapy guided by pathologic response. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Main outcomes included 5-year event-free survival, recurrence-free interval (RFI), distant RFI, and overall survival. ctDNA detection and clearance were assessed using a whole-genome-based, tumor-informed ultrasensitive assay at 4 predefined time points (baseline, preoperative, postoperative, and late adjuvant). RESULTS: The overall trial cohort included 98 patients (median [IQR] age, 49.5 years [24.0-78.0 years]; 97 female patients [99.0%]; 1 male patient [1.0%]), with mostly stage 2 disease (91 patients [92.9%]) and hormone receptor-positive tumors (65 patients [66.3%]). With a median (IQR) follow-up of 5.2 (5.0-5.4) years, the 5-year event-free survival was 99% (95% CI, 97%-100%), the 5-year RFI was 98% (95% CI, 93%-100%), the 5-year distant RFI was 100% (95% CI, 100%-100%), and the 5-year overall survival was 99% (95% CI, 97%-100%). Among 57 patients included in ctDNA analyses, baseline ctDNA was detected in 51 individuals (89.5%). After neoadjuvant therapy, ctDNA clearance occurred in 49 of 51 patients (96.1%), with only 2 individuals (3.9%) remaining ctDNA-positive preoperatively; detectability remained low (<10%) during postoperative follow-up. One single patient experienced a local recurrence, with ctDNA detected at time of recurrence and cleared following surgical resection. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this secondary analysis of the DAPHNe nonrandomized clinical trial, neoadjuvant THP was associated with excellent long-term outcomes in patients with early-stage ERBB2-positive breast cancer. Ultrasensitive ctDNA analyses demonstrated high baseline detection rates and near-universal clearance after abbreviated neoadjuvant therapy, supporting further investigation of ctDNA-guided de-escalation strategies in this setting. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03716180.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Combined effects of early rhythm control and exercise on atrial fibrillation outcomes: Nationwide cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of combining early rhythm control (ERC) and exercise habit change in atrial fibrillation (AF) is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the primary outcomes-including major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause death-according to the combination of ERC status and exercise habit change. METHODS: From the National Health Information Database, we included 161,379 patients diagnosed with AF. Rhythm control initiated within 2 years from AF diagnosis was defined as ERC. Based on the status of regular exercise at serial health examinations before and after AF diagnosis, exercise habit change was categorized into persistent non-exercisers, exercise dropouts, new exercisers, and exercise maintainers. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 4.6 years, ERC was associated with a lower risk of MACE and all-cause death, with adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of 0.832 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.797-0.868) and 0.953 (95% CI, 0.915-0.992), respectively (both P < .001). Exercise maintenance was also associated with a lower risk of MACE and all-cause death (aHR = 0.822; 95% CI, 0.763-0.886 for MACE and 0.708; 95% CI, 0.658-0.762 for all-cause death; both P < .001). There was a progressive decrease in the risk of MACE and all-cause death as patients with AF engaged in ERC or regular exercise; the combination of ERC and exercise maintenance provided the greatest benefit, associated with the lowest risk of MACE (aHR = 0.641; 95% CI, 0.576-0.713) and all-cause death (aHR = 0.564; 95% CI, 0.499-0.636; both P < .001). CONCLUSION: The combination of ERC and exercise maintenance yielded a synergistic effect, maximizing the reduction in MACE and all-cause death risks, highlighting the importance of integrated management in AF.

Atrial fibrillation↗

PubMed2026

Bone progression in multiple myeloma: Benefit of zoledronic acid for patients achieving at least Very Good Partial Response and prognostic value of bone turnover markers.

The Magnolia study demonstrated that continuation of zoledronic acid (ZOL) beyond 2 years reduces the risk of progressive bone disease (PBD) in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). This follow-up study investigated the effects of ZOL in patients achieving very good partial response (VGPR) compared to patients who did not and whether bone turnover markers could identify patients at an increased risk of PBD following treatment cessation. Two Magnolia trial subgroups were analysed: patients with VGPR or better after 2 years of ZOL, randomized to either continued treatment or observation, and patients randomized to observation in whom serial bone markers (C-terminal cross-linked telopeptide of type I collagen [CTX], procollagen type I N-terminal propeptide [P1NP], bone-specific alkaline phosphatase [BAP], tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase isoform 5b [TRAcP]) were measured for up to 4 years. Continued monthly ZOL beyond 2 years significantly reduced the risk of PBD (hazard ratio 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16-0.92) in patients with VGPR or better (subgroup 1). After ZOL discontinuation, bone markers increased gradually. Elevated CTX (≥0.30 μg/L) and TRAcP (≥4 U/L) levels were associated with increased 6-month PBD risk (29% and 15% respectively) (subgroup 2). Continuation of ZOL beyond 2 years seems to reduce skeletal progression risk in patients achieving VGPR or better. Elevated CTX or TRAcP levels may help identify patients who could benefit from re-initiating ZOL.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Efficacy and Genomic Analysis of HER2-Mutant Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Treated with Neratinib Alone or with Trastuzumab in the SUMMIT Basket Trial.

PURPOSE: Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) mutations occur in 1% to 3% of triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC), representing a novel target for biomarker-directed treatment. In the SUMMIT basket trial (NCT01953926), patients with HER2-mutant, metastatic TNBC received neratinib (240 mg/day) or neratinib + trastuzumab (N + T; neratinib 240 mg/day, intravenous trastuzumab 8 mg/kg initially and then 6 mg/kg every 3 weeks). We report final results from the neratinib and N + T TNBC cohorts. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Primary endpoint: investigator-assessed objective response rate at first postbaseline tumor assessment (ORRfirst); secondary endpoints included confirmed ORR by investigator, clinical benefit rate (CBR), and progression-free survival (PFS); exploratory endpoint included circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) collected at baseline, during treatment, and at the end of treatment. RESULTS: Twenty-seven patients were enrolled between July 2014 and September 2021. Confirmed ORRs were 40% [95% confidence interval (CI), 12.2-73.8] for neratinib (n = 10) and 35.3% (95% CI, 14.2-61.7) for N + T (n = 17). CBRs were 40% (95% CI, 12.2-73.8) and 47.1% (95% CI, 23-72.2), respectively; median PFS times were 2.89 (95% CI, 0.95-5.52) and 6.24 months (95% CI, 2.10-8.18), respectively. HER2 mutation variant allele frequencies in ctDNA from patients with response or stable disease decreased upon treatment and increased upon progression. Serial ctDNA sequencing revealed emergence or increase in on-pathway (ERBB3) and off-pathway (KRAS and TP53) mutations. The most common treatment-emergent adverse events were diarrhea, nausea, and constipation. CONCLUSIONS: N + T in patients with HER2-mutant metastatic TNBC seemed to prolong responses versus neratinib alone, representing a novel approach for patients with biomarker-defined metastatic TNBC. Based on these and previously published data, neratinib-based combinations are endorsed by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines for patients with hormone receptor-positive or -negative metastatic breast cancer with activating HER2 mutations. See related commentary by Lloyd et al., p. 3715.

Adult↗

PubMed2026

Clinical Validation of a Multiplex Urine Biomarker Assay for Surveillance of Recurrent Bladder Cancer.

PURPOSE: More than 50% of patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer experience recurrence, requiring lifelong surveillance with repeated cystoscopy. Given the invasive nature and cost of cystoscopy, accurate noninvasive tools are needed to support risk-adapted monitoring. We evaluated the ability of Oncuria-Monitor, a multiplex urine biomarker assay, to detect recurrent bladder cancer during surveillance. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between February 2017 and August 2020, six medical centers in the United States and Japan prospectively enrolled 300 patients with a history of bladder cancer, generating 1,248 serial urine samples. Participants were divided into training and validation cohorts. At each surveillance visit over 2 years, urine samples were analyzed in a blinded manner using Oncuria-Monitor and BladderChek, alongside urine cytology. Test performance was compared with cystoscopy and histopathology-confirmed recurrence. RESULTS: Recurrent bladder cancer was identified in 31% (93/300) of participants, with 143 total recurrences during follow-up, including 90 tumors in the validation cohort. In the validation cohort, Oncuria-Monitor achieved a sensitivity of 85.6% [95% confidence interval (CI), 78.1%-92.2%] and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 93% (95% CI, 89.2%-96.4%). In comparison, BladderChek demonstrated a sensitivity of 20.0% and an NPV of 88%, whereas urine cytology showed a sensitivity of 36.9% and an NPV of 91.6%. The number needed to evaluate to detect one recurrence was 3 for both cystoscopy and Oncuria-Monitor, compared with 15 for BladderChek and 8 for cytology. CONCLUSIONS: In this large prospective longitudinal study, Oncuria-Monitor demonstrated clinically actionable performance, enabling a rule-out strategy that could safely reduce cystoscopy in approximately 25% of surveillance visits. These findings support a paradigm shift toward biomarker-guided, risk-adapted surveillance in bladder cancer that reduces unnecessary invasive procedures while maintaining oncologic safety.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

[State Changes and Stability Grading of Driver Genes in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer Based on Repeated NGS Testing].

BACKGROUND: Next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based driver gene testing has become a routine component of molecular subtyping and precision therapy for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Dynamic genomic monitoring facilitates early detection of resistance-related molecular alterations and informs timely therapeutic adjustments. However, standardized criteria for evaluating the stability of serial NGS testing are currently lacking, and the applicability of NGS using formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) specimens for dynamic monitoring remains poorly defined. This study aims to establish a stability grading system for driver gene status alterations based on repeated NGS testing, and to provide evidence-based support for clinical repeat biopsy strategies. METHODS: Data from 1232 patients with NSCLC who underwent two or more NGS tests on FFPE tissue specimens at Beijing Chest Hospital between June 2019 and April 2026 were collected retrospectively. Patients with an interval of ≥4 months between the initial and last tests were included to ensure the representativeness of temporal analysis, resulting in a main analysis cohort of 942 patients. The Kappa consistency test was used to evaluate the state stability of nine core driver genes [epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), Kirsten rat sarcoma viral oncogene homolog (KRAS), anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK), ROS proto-oncogene 1, receptor tyrosine kinase (ROS1), mesenchymal‑epithelial transition factor (MET), rearranged during transfection (RET), v-raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B1 (BRAF), erb‑b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2 (ERBB2), and phosphatidylinositol‑4,5‑bisphosphate 3‑kinase catalytic subunit alpha (PIK3CA)] and to construct a five‑level grading system. Paired variant allele frequency (VAF) differences were compared using the Wilcoxon signed‑rank test. Independent influencing factors for mutation accumulation were identified by binary Logistic regression. RESULTS: The state stability of the nine genes was classified into five levels: EGFR showed high stability (Kappa=0.838), ROS1/ALK/KRAS good stability, BRAF/PIK3CA/RET moderate stability, and ERBB2 low stability, and MET showed high instability. MET exhibited the highest rate of state change (9.3%) with a raw observed agreement of 90.7%. Its Kappa value (0.172) was influenced by the low prevalence (3.7%) compression effect and should therefore be interpreted alongside the observed agreement (90.7%) and the prevalence-adjusted and bias-adjusted Kappa (PABAK). The VAF of PIK3CA increased significantly (P=0.005). T790M positivity increased from 5.8% to 10.8%, and 30 new C797S mutations were detected at the last test (13 with T790M, 17 without). The overall rate of new driver gene variants in the main cohort was 18.0%. Binary Logistic regression showed that a lower number of initial mutated genes was the only independent predictor of new variants [odds ratio (OR)=0.399, P<0.001], while sex and detection interval showed no independent association. CONCLUSIONS: A five level stability grading system for state changes of driver genes in NSCLC based on repeated NGS testing has been established. MET showed the most frequent state changes, which should be interpreted in conjunction with the prevalence effect. The VAF increase of PIK3CA is an observational finding, and its clinical significance requires further prospective validation. A lower initial mutation burden may reflect tumor clonal complexity and was associated with a higher likelihood of subsequent acquisition of new variants. FFPE based NGS is applicable for repeated testing at clinical treatment decision nodes.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Prognostic Value of Circulating Tumor DNA-Based Minimal Residual Disease for Recurrence-Free Survival in Resectable Gastric Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis with Serial Monitoring Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-based minimal residual disease (MRD) is an emerging biomarker, but its utility in resectable gastric cancer remains incompletely characterized. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of eight studies (520 patients) to evaluate the prognostic value of ctDNA-based MRD for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in resectable gastric cancer. RESULTS: In localized resectable gastric cancer (Stage I-III), the setting in which postoperative ctDNA most coherently represents true molecular residual disease after curative-intent surgery, postoperative ctDNA positivity was associated with diminished recurrence-free survival (RFS: HR 12.26, 95% CI 3.30-45.52) and overall survival (OS: HR 8.57, 95% CI 3.06-23.98). The test for subgroup differences between localized and mixed-stage cohorts was not statistically significant (P = 0.57), and the numerically higher HR in the localized subgroup should therefore not be interpreted as evidence of a quantitatively stronger prognostic effect. Postoperative ctDNA detection demonstrated substantially stronger prognostic value (overall RFS: HR 10.00, 95% CI 4.53-22.10) compared to preoperative assessment (HR 2.17, 95% CI 1.10-4.28). Both tumor-informed and tumor-agnostic strategies effectively stratified high-risk patients. However, these effect sizes should be interpreted cautiously given the small number of studies and substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 65-72%). Results from mixed-stage cohorts including Stage IV disease are supportive but should not be considered equivalent to localized-disease findings, as ctDNA in metastatic disease reflects persistent systemic burden rather than minimal residual disease in the postoperative sense. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative ctDNA-based MRD shows a consistent adverse prognostic association in resectable gastric cancer, with localized disease (Stage I-III) representing the most biologically and clinically coherent setting for interpretation. However, the large pooled hazard ratios (HR 10.00-12.26) should be interpreted as a directionally consistent signal rather than precise quantitative estimates, given the small number of studies, wide confidence intervals, and substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 65-73%). This heterogeneity is largely driven by substantial variation in postoperative sampling timing (4 days to 16 weeks) and ctDNA assay characteristics (platform, sensitivity, coverage, variant filtering, and positivity thresholds), which require standardization in future studies. While ctDNA is prognostically valuable, its clinical utility remains unestablished. Prospective randomized trials are needed to determine whether ctDNA-guided strategies improve patient outcomes before routine clinical implementation can be recommended.

Humans↗