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Optimizing the use of biomarkers, surrogate endpoints, and clinical endpoints for more efficient drug development.

Biomarkers and surrogate endpoints are critical to the future of efficient drug development. Definitions, a conceptual model, and a conceptual framework for validating and bridging biomarkers to clinical endpoints are provided in this presentation. In addition, a few examples are provided to support the development concept. Poor correlation between a biomarker and its clinical endpoint may result from (1) poor measurement of one or both, (2) selection of an inappropriate biomarker, or, more important, (3) use of an inappropriate clinical endpoint. Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling output can be no better than biomarkers or surrogate endpoints used for the modeling. As we increase our understanding of biomarkers, surrogate markers, and the mechanistic basis for the processes of interest, biomarker and surrogate endpoint predictive power will no longer be an issue and PK/PD modeling inputs and outputs will improve.

Biomarkers↗

CyclinB2 and BIRC5 genes as surrogate biomarkers for neurite outgrowth in SH-SY5Y subclonal cells.

Neurite outgrowth plays a key role in neuronal development and regeneration, and is the hallmark assay for the effects of neurotrophic factors such as nerve growth factor (NGF). However, measuring neurite outgrowth is a slow and resource-intensive process. We therefore wanted to identify surrogate biomarkers for neurite outgrowth activity by gene expression analysis in SH-O10 cells, a subclone of the human SH-SY5Y neuroblastoma cell line but with much higher NGF-induced neurite outgrowth activity. Microarray analysis identified seven genes where mRNA levels were changed. NGF-induced decreases in levels of two genes, CyclinB2 and BIRC5, were confirmed by quantitative real-time RT-PCR. Levels of NGF-induced decreases in CyclinB2 and BIRC5 mRNA in several SH-SY5Y subclones with different neurite outgrowth responses correlated with their neurite outgrowth activities. Decreases in CyclinB2 and BIRC5 mRNA induced by FK506 or retinoic acid, both of which exert potentiation of NGF-induced neurite outgrowth effects but with different mechanisms, also correlated with their neurite outgrowth activities. In conclusion, decreasing levels of CyclinB2 and BIRC5 mRNA strongly correlate with neurite outgrowth activities in terms of NGF-related effect in SH-SY5Y subclonal cells, and have potential to become quantitative surrogate biomarkers for measuring NGF-related neurite outgrowth.

Antineoplastic Agents↗

Effect of blood tamoxifen concentrations on surrogate biomarkers in a trial of dose reduction in healthy women.

PURPOSE: Tamoxifen administered at 20 mg/d has been shown to decrease breast cancer incidence in at-risk women by 50%, but toxicity may limit its broad use, particularly in postmenopausal women. Because toxicity may be dose-dependent, we studied the biologic activity of low concentrations of tamoxifen to determine the plausibility of a dose reduction. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We measured the blood concentrations of tamoxifen and its main metabolites in a dose titration study in 105 healthy women (placebo, tamoxifen 10 mg on alternate days, tamoxifen 10 mg/d, and tamoxifen 20 mg/d). Drug levels measured after 2 months of treatment were correlated with the changes in surrogate biomarkers of different diseases, including lipid profile, blood cell count, fibrinogen, antithrombin III, osteocalcin, and insulin-like growth factor I, a promising surrogate biomarker of breast cancer. RESULTS: The means (+/- SD) for tamoxifen and N-desmethyltamoxifen (metabolite X) concentrations (ng/mL) were dose-related, being, respectively, 0 and 0 with placebo, 26.8 +/- 15.1 and 43.7 +/- 22.5 with 10 mg every other day, 51.2 +/- 24.1 and 90.7 +/- 48.0 with 10 mg/d, and 136.0 +/- 52.7 and 230.6 +/- 75.0 with 20 mg/d of tamoxifen. At variance, the biomarker changes were of comparable magnitude at any drug concentration except for platelet count and triglycerides levels, the latter showing a trend to an increase with increasing tamoxifen concentrations. CONCLUSION: An 80% reduction in blood concentrations does not seem to affect the activity of tamoxifen on biomarkers of cardiovascular or breast cancer risk and may in fact have a more favorable safety profile. Additional studies are warranted to determine the most appropriate dose of this agent.

Antineoplastic Agents, Hormonal↗

Human papillomavirus viral load as promising surrogate biomarker of cervical cancer risk and clinical outcome.

INTRODUCTION: Persistent high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) causes cervical precancerous lesions and cancer. While molecular HPV DNA testing offers superior sensitivity over cytology as a primary screening method, its limited specificity leads to unnecessary follow-up procedures. Therefore, identifying surrogate biomarkers to distinguish transient infections from clinically relevant, persistent ones is essential for improving risk stratification. A comprehensive literature search across PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science databases up to December 2025 identified studies evaluating HR-HPV viral load in cervical lesion progression. AREAS COVERED: Oncogenic HPV viral load, the quantity of HPV genomes in a sample, is a promising biomarker. Levels correlated positively with HR-HPV persistence, increasing the risk of high-grade lesions and invasive cervical cancer. Furthermore, quantification provides prognostic information regarding disease severity, therapeutic response, and post-treatment recurrence. EXPERT OPINION: Recent standardization and validation of multiplex real-time PCR techniques supports integrating HPV viral load into clinical pratice. Incorporating viral load assessment into screening and management algorithms could significantly enhance diagnostic precision, enable personalized follow-up, and guide therapeutic decisions for women with HR-HPV-associated cervical disease. Refining these protocols will ultimately minimize over-treatment while ensuring rigorous monitoring for high-risk patients.

Humans↗

Ki-67, cyclin E, and p16INK4 are complimentary surrogate biomarkers for human papilloma virus-related cervical neoplasia.

Prior studies of Ki-67, cyclin E, and p16 expression have suggested that these biomarkers may be preferentially expressed in cervical neoplasia. This study examined and compared the distribution of staining for these three antigens in 1) normal and reactive epithelial changes, 2) diagnostically challenging cases (atypical metaplasia and atypical atrophy), 3) squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL), and 4) high-and low-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) type-specific SIL. One hundred four epithelial foci from 99 biopsies were studied, including low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL; 24), high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL; 36), mature or immature (metaplastic) squamous epithelium (29), and atrophic or metaplastic epithelium with atypia (15). Cases were scored positive for Ki-67 expression if expression extended above the basal one third of the epithelium, for cyclin E if moderate to strong staining was present, and for p16 if moderate to strong diffuse or focal staining was present. HPV status was scored by polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism (PCR-RFLP) analysis of extracted DNA. Immunohistochemical findings were correlated with histologic and viral data. Overall, a histologic diagnosis of SIL correlated strongly with all of the biomarkers used (p <0.001). Positive scores for Ki-67, cyclin E, and p16 were seen in 68.4%, 96.7%, and 100% of LSILs and 94.7%, 91.6%, and 100% of HSILs, respectively. Positive predictive values of these three biomarkers for HPV were 82.4%, 89.5%, and 91.4%, respectively. The positive predictive value for HPV of either cyclin E or p16 was 88.7%. Strong diffuse staining for p16 was significantly associated with high-risk HPV-associated lesions. Normal or reactive epithelial changes scored positive for the three biomarkers in 7.7%, 8.0%, and 12%, respectively. Limitations in specificity included minimal or no suprabasal staining for Ki-67 in immature condylomas and occasional suprabasal staining of reactive epithelial changes (10%), diffuse weak nuclear cyclin E staining in some normal or metaplastic epithelia, and diffuse weak basal p16 staining and occasional stronger focal positivity in normal epithelia. Ki-67, cyclin E, and p16 are complementary surrogate biomarkers for HPV-related preinvasive squamous cervical disease. (Because cyclin E and p16 are most sensitive for LSIL and HSIL [including high-risk HPV], respectively, use of these biomarkers in combination for resolving diagnostic problems, with an appreciation of potential background staining, is recommended.)

Biomarkers↗

Surrogate biomarkers of HPV infection in cervical neoplasia screening and diagnosis.

The current prevention of cervical cancer and elimination of its precursors is predicated on the identification of cervical cytologic abnormalities and their histologic confirmation. This strategy, although effective, depends on both sensitivity and specificity of cytology and precise histologic distinction between precursor lesions and their mimics during biopsy interpretation. The effective application of diagnostic criteria is operator dependent and varies as a function of experience and training. However, because human papilloma viruses (HPV) are causative agents and alter the cell cycle in cervical neoplasms, host genes interacting directly or indirectly with HPV oncoproteins have been identified in vitro. Recent research has centered on identifying the host genes upregulated in association with HPV infection, determining their suitability as "surrogate markers" for HPV infection, and using these markers to identify HPV-associated epithelial lesions in tissue or cytologic specimens. This review surveys recent advances in this field, summarizing the advantages and limitations of several candidate biomarkers, including PCNA, Ki-67, cyclin E, p16ink4, MN antigen, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and telomerase in the recognition of preinvasive cervical neoplasia, and discusses their future potential in cervical cancer screening. Based on current studies, the strongest candidates for diagnosis and screening are p16 and cyclin E (squamous) and MN (glandular) biomarkers. As new genes are identified and tested, the concept of biomarkers as tools in primary screening and lesion recognition will continue to mature.

Antigens, Neoplasm↗

p16(INK4A) is a surrogate biomarker for a subset of human papilloma virus-associated dysplasias of the uterine cervix as determined on the Pap smear.

Recently, p16(INK4A) has been identified as a biomarker for human papilloma virus (HPV)-induced dysplastic lesions of the cervix and it has been suggested that it may be a useful diagnostic aid for these lesions. This study therefore was performed to determine the utility of p16 expression in a series of Papanicolaou (Pap) smears collected in liquid medium and to determine its benefit, if any, over HPV testing. One hundred seven cases, including 23 negative cases, 34 with low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL), 16 with high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL), 29 with atypical squamous cells of uncertain significance (ASC-US), and 5 cases with ASC suspicious for HSIL (ASC-H), were evaluated for both p16 expression and HPV DNA. We observed p16 expression in only 36% of all cases with abnormal cytology (30/84) and in 40% of all cases associated with high-risk HPV. The highest rate of positivity (80%) and the highest levels of expression (more than three to five positive cells/10x field) were seen in HSIL. Similar results were observed with ASC-H cases. This suggests that in equivocal cases, p16 may be used for confirmation of the diagnosis. On the other hand, p16 positivity was noted in only 21% of LSIL and ASC-US cases. This raises the interesting possibility, given that only a minority of LSIL cases progress on to higher-grade lesions, that p16 might be useful for triaging these patients for closer follow-up and/or further evaluation. Additional studies are required for confirmation.

Biomarkers, Tumor↗

A phase II chemoprevention trial design to identify surrogate endpoint biomarkers in breast cancer.

Surrogate biomarkers for risk assessment and efficacy of potential chemopreventive agents are needed to improve the efficiency and reduce the cost of conducting chemoprevention trials. In addition to criteria of sensitivity, specificity, quantifiability, and reproducibility applicable to most potential biomarkers, there are additional specific constraints in developing biomarkers for specific organ sites. In the case of breast tissue, these difficulties include lack of a consensus on the nature of premalignant lesions and the histologic criteria used to define them; even when such a consensus can be evolved, there are limitations in visualizing such lesions without invasive biopsies. Also, knowledge of specific genetic and biochemical changes in premalignant lesions is limited. In addition, the physiology of breast tissue is cyclic, no proven, relevant markers can be studied in a randomly obtained needle aspirate. The earliest determinate lesion that can be recognized in breast tissue is ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). At the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, we have initiated a study to develop biomarkers for tamoxifen and 4-hydroxyphenylretinamide by administering one or both of these drugs to women with DCIS or small invasive lesions in the interval between the initial diagnostic core biopsy and definitive surgery. The treatment is to be administered for 2-4 weeks. Proposed biomarkers to be studied include: (a) markers associated with neoplastic phenotypes, e.g., excessive proliferation, alternations of nuclear morphology and angiogenesis; (b) proteins likely to be required for response to the putative chemopreventive agents, e.g., estrogen receptor, nuclear retinoid receptors; (c) markers indicative of intact downstream response pathways, e.g., progesterone receptors; (d) oncogenes and tumor suppressor genes regulated by the proposed chemopreventive agents, e.g., neu, TGF-beta; and (e) potential novel markers of genetic instability that could be studied in randomly obtained needle aspirates, i.e., random chromosomal gains and losses in high risk mammary epithelium. The experience gained in designing and conducting this trial is expected to facilitate development of future chemoprevention trials of breast, as well as other organ site cancers.

Anticarcinogenic Agents↗

A checklist for suitability of biomarkers as surrogate endpoints in chemoprevention of breast cancer.

By reference to a "checklist" of requirements for substances or processes to qualify as surrogate endpoint biomarkers, both malignin and antimalignin antibody are found to be suitable for use in breast cancer chemoprevention trials. Antimalignin has been shown to be highly specific and sensitive, modulatable and reversible, detectable early in appearance of malignancy and upon recovery therefrom, and differentially expressed in high-risk individuals as compared with the general population.

Anticarcinogenic Agents↗

A pilot study to establish a clinical model to perform phase II studies of breast cancer chemopreventive agents in women at high risk with biomarkers as surrogate endpoints for activity.

PURPOSE: Use of surrogate end point biomarkers in phase II trials may help select agents that appear to have activity and might be evaluated in future phase III definitive trials of breast cancer prevention. We performed a pilot clinical trial to establish the logistics for a clinical model to perform phase II studies of breast cancer chemopreventive agents in women at high risk with novel imaging techniques and candidate surrogate end point biomarkers for activity. We chose tamoxifen to establish proof of principal with a known effective agent. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Women at a high risk of developing a new breast cancer and for whom tamoxifen was recommended were eligible. The women underwent baseline and 3 and 6 months mammogram and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of one breast to identify areas of water-like intensity (epithelial) and to determine the changes over time and MRI-directed core breast biopsies of these areas for surrogate end point biomarkers analysis. RESULTS: From August 1999 to March 2001, 26 women underwent baseline imaging and core biopsies. Sixteen women took tamoxifen and 10 chose not to. Overall, 79% of the samples contained glandular tissue evaluable for histology, but only 66% of the samples were evaluable for marker analysis. Only 12 patients had specimens with glandular tissue sufficient for marker analysis both at baseline and in at least one follow-up. Because of the small number of women with matched samples, marker analysis was not informative. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the feasibility of obtaining serial core breast biopsies from women at a high risk of developing a new breast cancer. Patient participation in this model is satisfactory, and such a model may provide indication of drug activity. MRI-directed biopsy did not provide a high yield of evaluable samples, and additional work on adequate collection of epithelial tissue for surrogate end point biomarker analysis is thus necessary.

Adult↗

Vascular biomarkers and surrogates in cardiovascular disease.

Cardiovascular biomarker research efforts have resulted in the identification of new risk factors and novel drug targets, as well as the establishment of treatment guidelines. Government agencies, academic research institutions, diagnostic industries, and pharmaceutical companies all recognize the importance of biomarkers in advancing therapies to improve public health. In drug development, biomarkers are used to evaluate early signals of efficacy and safety, to select dose, and to identify the target population. The United States Food and Drug Administration has relied on biomarkers to support clinical applications in many therapeutic fields, including cardiovascular disease. The appropriate application of cardiovascular biomarkers requires an understanding of disease natural history, the mechanism of the intervention, and the characteristics and limitations of the biomarker. Channels of communication among researcher, developer, and regulator must remain open to maximize the success of future biomarker efforts. In 2003, 2004, and 2005, an international panel of cardiovascular biomarker experts convened at the "Cardiovascular Biomarker and Surrogate Endpoints Symposia" held in Bethesda, Md, to discuss the use of biomarkers in the development of improved cardiovascular diagnostics and therapeutics. The information presented in the present report summarizes the authors' perspective distilled from these proceedings.

Atherosclerosis↗