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A goodness-of-fit test for the polygenic threshold model: application to pyloric stenosis.

A new test of goodness of fit for the polygenic threshold model is proposed. This test, when applied to disorders showing different incidence rates in males and females, is designed to account for ascertainment in more detail than previously done by other investigators. This is accomplished by computing the expected distribution of nuclear families with more than one affected sib conditioned on several family-dependent variables, including whether each family was ascertained via only affected boys or via at least one affected girl. A direct measure of the probability of observing a data set is thereby derived. The test, when applied to data on pyloric stenosis, exposes the critical nature of the ascertainment procedures. Different levels of statistical significance are obtained when mode of ascertainment is taken into account than when the mode of ascertainment is ignored.

Female

Empirical examination of the threshold model of neuron firing.

An elementary model of neuronal activity involves temporal and spatial summation of postsynaptic currents that are elicited by presynaptic spikes and that, in turn, elicit postsynaptic potentials at a trigger zone; when the potential at the trigger zone exceeds a "threshold" level, a postsynaptic spike is generated. This paper describes three methods of estimating the "summation function", that is, the function of time that converts the synaptic current into potential at the trigger zone: namely, maximum likelihood, cross-correlation analysis and cross-spectral analysis. All three methods, when applied to input-output data collected on various neurons of Aplysia californica, give comparable results. As estimated, the summation function involved in the explored cells has an early positive-going swing that is large and brief. In the cell L5, but not in R2, there was also a late negative-going swing of longer duration.

Animals

Scaling linear-model breeding values to the liability scale: an application to pig binary traits.

In commercial pig production, many important traits are recorded as binary phenotypes. For such traits, threshold models offer an appropriate framework but are computationally intensive. Thus, linear models are widely used to obtain genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV); however, these are on the observed scale (phenotypic). This creates the need for a robust method to approximate GEBV from linear models to the liability scale. A recently proposed approximation showed good concordance for low-prevalence traits (<5%) but has not yet been tested for a wider range of prevalence values and for models with more than one random effect. We aimed to evaluate the performance of this approximation for pig binary traits with prevalences ranging from <5% to >86%, in both animal and maternal animal models. Data were available for five fitness traits (FT1-FT5), with up to 233k animals with phenotypes, of which 204k animals were genotyped with a 25k SNP array. Variance component estimates were obtained using threshold models. Classical animal models were used for FT1-FT3, and maternal animal models for FT4 and FT5. Variance components on the observed scale were then obtained by multiplying estimates from a threshold model by the square of the height of the standard normal density evaluated at the threshold. GEBV were predicted using single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction under both linear and threshold models. The approximation tested involved scaling the GEBV using the height of the ordinate of the standard normal distribution evaluated at the threshold as a scaling factor. The agreement between GEBV from the scaled linear model and the threshold model on the probability scale was evaluated using Pearson and Spearman correlations, mean squared error (MSE), regression parameters, overlapping coefficient (OVL), distribution overlap, and classification accuracy (CACC). Correlations between linear and threshold GEBV ranged from 0.94 (low-prevalence traits) to 0.99 (high-prevalence traits) for the direct GEBV and were 0.99 for the maternal GEBV. MSE were close to zero. The OVL exceeded 0.83 for all traits. CACC ranged from 95.10% to 98.33% for the direct GEBV and from 92.54% to 97.42% for the maternal GEBV. Regardless of model and trait prevalence, this approximation yielded GEBV that are highly consistent with threshold model GEBV, providing a reliable, practical approach for large-scale pig genetic evaluations for binary traits using linear models.

Animals

PEStimate: predicting offspring disease risk after polygenic embryo screening.

MOTIVATION: Polygenic embryo screening (PES) is a new, controversial technology, whereby human in vitro fertilization embryos are screened for their genetic risk of complex, polygenic diseases. PES aims to reduce the disease burden in offspring by prioritizing the selection of low-risk embryos. However, given that polygenic diseases are usually late-onset, PES outcomes must be estimated by epidemiological modeling. The liability threshold model has been previously used to predict outcomes. However, predictions rely on complex sets of equations, some of which require numerical integration or simulation. Further, previous models failed to account for the possibility that the selected embryo will not be born. RESULTS: Here, we present PEStimate, a freely available online app for predicting PES outcomes when screening for a single disease. PEStimate predicts the offspring risk with and without PES, as well as generates plots of the risk reduction versus key parameters. Users can adjust the number of available embryos, the live birth rate, the disease prevalence, the accuracy of the genetic risk predictor, the embryo selection method, the genetic risk of parents, and the disease status of parents, siblings, uncles/aunts, and grandparents of the embryos. Our model includes, for the first time, the possibility of embryo implantation failure, showing that risk reductions have been previously overestimated. PEStimate provides geneticists, healthcare professionals, patients, and other stakeholders with a necessary tool for examining the impact of PES and weighing its potential benefits against possible personal and societal harms. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: PEStimate: https://polygenicembryo.shinyapps.io/pestimate. Source code: https://github.com/Lirazk/PEStimate.

Humans

Intracranial self-stimulation thresholds: a model for the hedonic effects of drugs of abuse.

We present the thesis that many drugs of abuse are used for their hedonic effects and that a relevant animal model for the study of these effects is the action of these drugs on the pathways that support rewarding intracranial self-stimulation. A relationship between abuse potential of a drug and its ability to lower the threshold for rewarding brain stimulation in the rat was found. Of all the compounds we have studied, morphine and cocaine were the drugs that caused the maximum lowering of the rewarding threshold. Phencyclidine hydrochloride and the mixed agonist-antagonist pentazocine also lowered the threshold to a lesser degree, while the mixed agonist-antagonists cyclazocine and nalorphine hydrochloride had inconsistent effects. Naloxone hydrochloride, at the doses tested, had no effect on the threshold. Further, there is no evidence that tolerance develops to the threshold-lowering effect of morphine, suggesting that continued use of narcotics by the physically dependent individual is not simply due to an effort to avoid the pain of withdrawal.

Animals

Re-examination of some of the Framingham blood-pressure data.

Mathematical smoothing of data for the Framingham study leads to the conclusion that there is no threshold of normality for blood-pressure. A reasonable therapeutic goal might be "the lower the better". However, examination of the unsmoothed Framingham data indicates that while systolic pressures fit this no-threshold model reasonably well, changes in diastolic pressure below about 90 mm Hg have little or no prognostic significance. The poor fit of the diastolic points to the no-threshold model may also help to explain why at Framingham raised systolic pressure seemed to have a greater impact than raised diastolic pressure.

Blood Pressure

Initiation of each avian inspiration by a CO2 threshold mechanism.

The avian respiratory oscillator has been investigated in a unidirectionally ventilated chicken by changing the dynamic pattern of inflow CO2 concentration (FCO2). Stimulation with periodic FCO2 results in a one-to-one synchronization of the respiratory movements that we have called pacing (Respir. Physiol. 22: 167--177, 1974). A two-parameter CO2 threshold model is proposed to explain this behavior. The model states that when FCO2 reaches a threshold level (L), it initiates the beginning of inspiration a constant time interval (LB) later. According to this model, when a triangular FCO2 concentration is used to synchronize the breathing pattern, the time from the minimum of the wave form to the beginning of inspiration (C-B interval) is dependent on the mean value and the rate of rise of FCO2 as determined by period and amplitude of the triangle. Particularly interesting is the prediction that the direction of the relationship (increasing or decreasing) between FCO2 amplitude and the C-B interval is dependent on whether the mean value of FCO2 is above or below the threshold level. Experimental data obtained during amplitude changes support the above prediction.

Animals

Genomic prediction and genome-wide association study for liver abscesses in crossbred beef cattle.

Liver abscesses are a concern in feedlot cattle, and little is known about the role of genetics in their development. This study aimed to estimate genetic parameters and to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with liver abscesses. Crossbred cattle representing 18 breeds in the U.S. Meat Animal Research Center Germplasm Evaluation Program were phenotyped for liver abscesses at slaughter (n&#x2005;=&#x2005;9,044). Seventeen percent of cattle had liver abscesses. These cattle had genotypes that were imputed to sequence variant genotypes. After filtering and quality control, 340,723 SNPs were used in the analysis. Liver abscess prevalence was modeled with a single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) threshold model using a Bayesian framework. The model included contemporary group (sex, treatment group, and slaughter date), additive genomic, and residual effects. Genomic heritability was 0.039 (95% highest posterior density&#x2005;=&#x2005;0.005, 0.081), which was very small. To assess prediction quality, a 5-fold random cross-validation structure was used. Method Linear Regression was used to assess accuracy, bias, and dispersion by comparing estimated breeding values (EBV) from full and reduced analyses. Cross-validation metrics showed EBV based on genotypes had 0.05 reliability (SD&#x2005;<&#x2005;0.01) with no bias relative to EBV based on genotypes and phenotypes. For the genome-wide association study, SNP effects were back calculated from the EBV solutions from ssGBLUP. No SNPs were associated with liver abscesses at a Benjamini-Hochberg adjusted 0.05 significance level. Although a large dataset was used, this result was because of the low genomic heritability and imprecise EBV used to calculate SNP effects. Based on these results, environmental factors contribute to most of the variation in liver abscesses. Genetic selection to reduce liver abscesses would be slow because of the low genomic heritability, measurement late in life, and inability to measure breeding animals. A faster approach would be finding additional environmental interventions that maintain animal performance.

Animals

A family study of congenital inguinal hernia.

In fathers and mothers of 707 index patients with operated indirect congenital inguinal hernia (CIH) born in Budapest during the years 1962-1966 the frequency of CIH was two and five to six times higher, respectively, than in the general population. The rate of affected sibs was higher than that of parents but was greatly dependent on the sex of the index patient. Heritability estimates of CIH vary significantly in parents (0.35 +/- 0.12) and in sibs (0.78 +/- 0.14). In twins the heritability is 0.77. These data agree with the multifactorial threshold model involving dominance variance.

Adult

The course of affective disorders. II. Typology of bipolar manic-depressive illness.

A representative sample of 95 hospitalized bipolar manic-depressive patients was followed up from 1959 to 1975. The mean age of the group at the time of this study was 61 years. It was observed that female bipolar patients demonstrate depression much more frequently than mania, while male patients show a symmetric distribution of both manic and depressive syndromes. The longitudinal occurrence of syndromes remains more or less constant; for instance, individual patients do not tend to go into depression with increasing age. The study shows that even after three episodes 29% of all bipolar patients would still have been misdiagnosed as unipolar depression. An attempt is made to classify bipolar patients into three subtypes, 'preponderantly manic,' 'preponderantly depressed,' and a 'nuclear' type. Male patients belong mainly to the latter with an equal proportion of the first and third subtype. In contrast, female patients belong mainly to the depressed subtype. The findings are discussed assuming either a heterogeneity of bipolar disorders or a threshold model of affective disorders suggested by Gershon et al. (1976).

Adult

Allelic restriction: a biologic alternative to multifactorial threshold inheritance.

Contrary to the argument regarding the conservatism of the multifactorial threshold model for describing the inheritance of congenital malformations, little biological insight has resulted from the series of tautological, albeit grandiose, mathematical assumptions currently comprising the basis for this hypothesis. The working hypothesis of this presentation is to apply the "allelic restriction" model to the genesis of common human congenital malformations. New population data concerning isolated cleft palate closely fit the predictions of the proposed hypothesis. Recognising the heterogeneity of cleft palate as well as other common congenital malformations (namely, the difference between phenocopies, definable syndromes, and true hereditary cases), the "allelic restriction" model accords with the apparent greatly "reduced penetrance" of the heriditary cases. This model is meant to apply only to those congenital malformations which have both a high population frequency and a relatively small number of families showing an atypical type of vertical transmission.

Adult

Holzinger's Hc revised.

The formula H'C = 1 - CDZ/CMZ is suggested as a better summary of twin concordance data than the familiar Holzinger concordance formula, HC = (CMZ - CDZ)/(1 - CDZ). The new formula better estimates degree of genetic determination, G, as calculated from a threshold model, but never exceeds unity, as G sometimes does. For high concordance rates, if CMZ + CDZ greater than 1, HC may be more useful than either G or H'C.

Female