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Sampling variability of own-children fertility estimates.

This paper develops methodology for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals for own-children estimates of age-specific birth rates and total fertility rates. The methodology applies to systematic samples of households, which are treated as simple random samples of women. The assumption of simple random selection, together with the treatment of sample subgroup size and reverse-survival ratios as constants instead of random variables, imply that sampling variability is slightly underestimated. The methodology is applied illustratively to fertility estimates based on the 1970 census of the Philippines.

Birth Rate

Annual fertility rates from Census data on own children: comparisons with vital statistics data for the United States.

This paper begins by describing the procedure and data requirements for calculating annual fertility rates from census data on own children. Then, using data from the United States Censuses of 1960 and 1970, fully adjusted estimates are presented and compared with recorded vital statistics rates. Total fertility estimates derived from own children data for whites average less than two percent lower than the recorded rates- a difference that can be attributed partially to the fact that the estimates are adjusted for net census undercount but the recorded rates are not. Even without adjustments for mortality, children not living with their mothers, and net census undercount, the own children data estimates accurately replicate recorded trends (even though the levels are misspecified). The utility of own children data for the study of differential fertility is discussed.

Adolescent

[The decline of fertility in western europe: I. -- the appraisal (author's transl)].

The sharp decline in the number of births these last ten years is a general phenomenon in Western industrialised countries. As far as methodology is concerned, a clear distinction must be made between two concepts measuring fertility: completed fertility of successive generations, total fertility rate of successive years. The evolution of these two indicators of procreative behaviour is amazingly comparablefrom country to country, in spite of their various difference in termes of economic situation, of legislation (family allowances, contraception, abortion, divorce), predominant religion, etc...

Adolescent

Estimates of fertility levels in a rural community of Saudi Arabia.

There is a dearth of information on fertility levels in Saudi Arabia. In the absence of a reliable vital registration system, fertility level can be estimated from sample surveys. The Gompertz relational fertility model has been fitted to parity data on 923 women from a survey in the Al-Baha region. The estimated total fertility rate was 8.4. Education and age at marriage have strong association with the level of fertility. Those who married at early ages had higher parities, whereas women who had more than primary education reported lower parities.

Adolescent

[Obstetric-gynecologic problems in the developing countries].

The integrated health programmes in the developing countries give priority to the improvement of women's living conditions and of maternal and child health medical attention. The Authors, as specialists in Obstetrics and Gynecology active in an African country, present the most frequent pathological situations which, in their experience, can lead to the death of the pregnant woman. The social reality of the underdeveloped world and the high Total Fertility rates, due partly to the absence of a contraceptive culture, too often see the woman of reproductive age threatened by the complication deriving from abortion, ectopic pregnancy and labour. The obstetrician needs to know how to solve these emergencies and how to train the local personnel in order to guarantee as much as he can the essential obstetrical functions.

Child Health Services

Quantitative aspects of marriage, fertility and family limitation in nineteenth century America: another application of the Coale specifications.

This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals with the importance of abortion as a family-limiting practice among white couples in the nineteenth century.

Abortion, Induced

[The decline of fertility in Western Europe. III. Some considerations on future evolution and on policy measures aiming at supporting fertility (author's transl)].

The analysis of recent fertility trends in France lead to hold as plausible that women born after 1950 will not reach replacement level. On the other hand, the period total fertility rate, which has not fallen as low as those observed in some neighbouring countries, might well continue to decline and thus disturb the alimentation of age-pyramid, despite its slower decrease in the course of 1976. Considering present fertility situation in France, an action of the State appears to be desirable. The factors which condition fertility fall largely out of the range of well-established knowledge. Though, it seems that they are deeply rooted in collective consciousness and that the possibilities they leave to voluntary action on fertility trends is relatively modest. Moreover, to be efficient, the means used must be important. The lines of possible action seem, in our view, to relate to two main fields: research of a better conciliation of professional activity and motherhood, increase of family benefits for second but specially for third and following children.

Birth Rate

The predictive validity of reproductive intentions.

On the basis of data collected in the 1975 National Fertility Study (NFS) in which continuously married white women interviewed in the 1970 NFS were reinterviewed five years later, the aggregate and individual validity of reported fertility intentions is evaluated. The main finding about aggregate prediction is that 1970 intentions overestimated 1971-1975 fertility to the same extent as the conventional 1970 total fertility rate. The conclusion is that intentions suffer all of the same vulnerabilities as other period measures. At the individual level, the validity of intentions is considerable in comparison with most other indicators.

Adult

Demographic findings relevant for health care planning and evaluation collected through a malaria control project in the Kivu Mountains, Zaire.

Population studies were conducted in the margin of a community based malaria control programme in the Katana Health zone, in the Eastern part of Zaire. The reported findings are based on prospective registration of vital events from March 1986 through February 1987. At mid term 28.083 people were covered. The age and sex structure of the population was typical for tropical Africa, apart from an excess of males to females after the age of 64. The mean age at marriage was 21.2 years for women and 25.6 years for men. 89% of women did not complete a single year of formal education. The crude fertility rate was 250/1000 and total fertility 8.3 children. The infant mortality rate and the child mortality quotients attained 130/1000 and 183/1000 respectively. The crude death rate was 23 per 1000 and the natural population growth rate 31/1000. Due to a net out-migration of 28/1000 the zone's population remained, however, virtually stable. The latter observation questions the purported role of demographic pressure as a key determinant of the region's slow socio-economic development. The other findings provide valuable baseline and background information for planning and evaluating health-related activities.

Adolescent

Building families-Implementing balanced sexual and reproductive health: A Joint IFFS and ISA Scientific Statement.

One of the main initiatives of the World Health Organization (WHO) is the promotion of Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH). Sexuality, infertility, and contraception are three interconnected pillars of SRH, each essential for achieving global equity in family planning and family building. This scientific Statement, jointly developed by the International Federation of Fertility Societies (IFFS) and the International Society of Andrology (ISA), advocates for inclusive, evidence-based care for all individuals and couples, regardless of geography or socioeconomic status. The Statement underscores the need to enhance practitioner and policymaker education to support access to infertility evaluations and treatments for both men and women and to promote the availability of comprehensive contraceptive services for all in need. The Statement addresses three core domains: sexuality, infertility, and contraception. It emphasizes a biopsychosocial approach to SRH, highlighting the complex interplay between sexual function and fertility. Infertility is a multifactorial condition requiring early, holistic, and multidisciplinary management, including integrated male and female evaluations, medically assisted reproduction, and fertility preservation strategies. Contraception is explored through the lens of global unmet needs, expanding options for male contraceptives, and the importance of socio-culturally sensitive education and counseling. The joint efforts of the IFFS and ISA call for couple-centered SRH, acknowledging the sociocultural and policy challenges that affect access to care in a region-specific manner. This Statement aims to serve as a clinical and advocacy guide for practitioners and stakeholders, reinforcing that reproductive autonomy and access to care are vital components and duties for policymakers when developing public health strategies.

contraception

Building Families-Implementing Balanced Sexual and Reproductive Health: A Joint IFFS and ISA Scientific Statement.

One of the main initiatives of the World Health Organization (WHO) is the promotion of Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH). Sexuality, infertility, and contraception are three interconnected pillars of SRH, each essential for achieving global equity in family planning and family building. This scientific Statement, jointly developed by the International Federation of Fertility Societies (IFFS) and the International Society of Andrology (ISA), advocates for inclusive, evidence-based care for all individuals and couples, regardless of geography or socioeconomic status. The Statement underscores the need to enhance practitioner and policymaker education to support access to infertility evaluations and treatments for both men and women and to promote the availability of comprehensive contraceptive services for all in need. The Statement addresses three core domains: sexuality, infertility, and contraception. It emphasizes a biopsychosocial approach to SRH, highlighting the complex interplay between sexual function and fertility. Infertility is a multifactorial condition requiring early, holistic, and multidisciplinary management, including integrated male and female evaluations, medically assisted reproduction, and fertility preservation strategies. Contraception is explored through the lens of global unmet needs, expanding options for male contraceptives, and the importance of socio-culturally sensitive education and counseling. The joint efforts of the IFFS and ISA call for couple-centered SRH, acknowledging the sociocultural and policy challenges that affect access to care in a region-specific manner. This Statement aims to serve as a clinical and advocacy guide for practitioners and stakeholders, reinforcing that reproductive autonomy and access to care are vital components and duties for policymakers when developing public health strategies.

contraception

Target fertility, contraception, and aggregate rates: toward a formal synthesis.

This paper develops a stock adjustment model relating total expected births to conventional aggregate fertility rated for married women over 25. Each year, cohorts bear about 20 percent of their additional expected births. Aggregate U.S. rates have been consistent with expectations as expressed in surveys between 1955 and 1975; indeed, total expected births may be inferred from aggregate fertility behavior. A peculiar empirical finding is that the additional expected fertility of nonterminators has not changed since 1955, despite the dramatic decline in total expected and actual fertility. The model leads to a dynamic expression for the duration pattern of current and cumulative fertility and for the proportion of couples who have terminated childbearing. The model is also used to analyze the effects of changing contraceptive failure rates on fertility patterns. For example, a decline in "timing" failure rates increases duration-specific fertility five years later.

Adult

Demographic techniques in describing contraceptive use applied on the situation in Sweden.

The authors suggest expressing the amount of use of contraceptives in a female population in the same terms as used to denote the occurrence of births, with one year of contraceptive use regarded as an event in the same sense as a birth. If the prevalence of contraceptives in a population can be expressed in the same terms as other events associated with reproduction, such as births and abortions, it may help to clarify the relationships between these events. Applying the method used to calculate the total fertility and abortion rates on the use of oral contraceptives and intrauterine devices in Sweden in 1975, they noted 1.8 deliveries, 0.6 legal abortions and seven years' use of oral contraceptives and six years' use of intrauterine device per women.

Abortion, Legal

A close look at the demography of Afghanistan.

The first survey designed to allow estimates of the demographic characteristics of Afghanistan's sedentary population was conducted during the period 1972-1974. Our analysis of these data, based on recently developed techniques for handling imcomplete or inaccurate data, suggests that this population lives under conditions that are extreme when judged by modern standards. Marriage is early, especially for females, and universal. Marital fertility conforms to a pattern of natural fertility and total fertility is high. The birth rate is among the highest in the world today, and the expectation of life at birth is among the very lowest. Mortality is lower in urban areas than in rural areas, whereas total fertility is approximately the same in both. Our estimates of fertility and mortality imply stable populations which match closely the observed age distributions for both the rural and urban areas.

Afghanistan

Productivity and health of camels (Camelus dromedarius) in Somalia: associations with trypanosomosis and brucellosis.

In Somalia, one of the world's largest dromedary populations of about 5.3 million animals are kept by nomadic pastoralists under traditional management. Interest in the development potential of camel herds in the semi-arid areas of central Somalia initiated an investigation to determine the productivity of herds, their major diseases and likely associations among these parameters. Using a systems approach, data were collected for herd production parameters, environmental factors, management and production systems, and health variables. One thousand and thirty nine camels in 33 herds were studied in the central regions of Somalia. Trypanosoma evansi prevalence ranged from 1.7% in blood-smears to 56.4% using enzyme-linked immunosorbent micro-assay (microELISA). Seroprevalence for brucellosis was determined as 1.9% by the standard agglutination test (SAT) and 0.3% by the complement fixation test (CFT). Using multiple regression, 15% of the total variation of the general fertility rate was explained by the results of the microhaematocrit centrifugation technique (MHCT) and the microELISA for T. evansi, CFT results for brucellosis, herdsize, and young stock death rate. Among herd production variables, herd size differed significantly for different management units. Young stock death rates, as well as general fertility rates varied in the ecological subzones with a marked effect in the zones labeled "Inland". Various other associations were noted among demographic, husbandry and disease variables. The importance of trypanosomosis and brucellosis to the productivity of herds and measures to control their limiting effects on production were discussed.

Animal Husbandry

Is there a proportionality between the spontaneous and the X-ray-induction rates of mutations? Experiments with mutations at 13 X-chromosome loci in Drosophila melanogaster.

The X-ray induction of recessive visible specific locus mutations at 14 X-chromsome loci was studied in Drosophila melanogaster using the "Maxy" technique. The X-ray exposure was 3000 R to 5-day-old males and the sampling of germ cells was restricted to mature spermatozoa. Presumptive mutant females recovered in the F1 generation were tested for transmission, allelism, fertility and viability in males. A total of 128 mutations (115 completes and 13 mosaics including those that were male viable as well as male-lethal) recovered among 38 898 female progeny were found to be transmitted. On the basis of the above frequency, the average mutation rate can be estimated as 7.8 X 10(-8)/locus/R; for mutations that were viable and fertile in males, the rate is 3.0 X 10(-5)/locus/R (49 mutations among 38 898 progeny). The frequency of mutations at the different loci encompassed a wide range: while no mutations were recovered at the raspberry and carnation loci, at others, the numbers ranged from 1 at echinus to 31 at garnet; in addition, the proportion of mutations that was male-viable was also different, depending on the locus. Schalet's extensive data on spontaneous mutations at 13 (of the 14 loci employed in the present study) loci permit an estimate of the spontaneous rate which is 6.1 X 10(-6)/locus (a total of39 mutations among 490 000 progeny); for mutations that were viable and fertile in males, the rate is 3.0 X 10(-6)/locus (19 mutations among 490 000 progeny). The mutability of the different loci varied over a 9-fold range. When the different loci are ranked depending on their relative mutability (for spontaneous and induced mutations) it is found that in general, loci that mutate spontaneously relatively more frequently are also those at which more mutations have been recovered in the radiation experiments and likewise, those that are less mutable spontaneously are also those that mutate less after irradiation. Since the data are limited, it is concluded that the above finding is not inconsistent with the assumption of proportionality between spontaneous and induction rates of mutations. On the basis of the above results, a doubling dose of 100 R can be calculated for the X-ray induction of specific-locus mutations in Drosophila spermatozoa.

Animals

[Study of the influence of some factors on conception and fertility rates in sheep in the anestrus period].

Experiments were carried out with a total of 520 sheep, two-breed crosses, during the anestrus period (January-May) in 1972 and 1973. Estrus was induced by means of hormonal preparations, such as implants (Silestrus), vaginal swabs (Veramix), pregnant mare sera (Rigaoux) as well as estradiol-valerianat. Both the test and the control groups of animals were divided into four lots to study: a. the effect of the interval following lambing and the season on the results of hormonal treatment; b. the conception and fertility rates in lactating ewes with weaned lambs in the anestrus period; c. the effect of hormonal treatment in young and adult ewes nursing single lambs or twins and d. the influence of the functional status on the results of hormonal treatment.

Age Factors