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Biomedical subjects

Harry Hemingway

Publications and source records attributed to Harry Hemingway.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

Beyond data and technology: the need for new thinking to enable the era of precision prevention.

BACKGROUND: Global flagship initiatives increasingly advocate for proactive health maintenance to alleviate the growing burden on reactive, disease-focused healthcare systems. Precision prevention is conceived as the targeted modulation of causal pathways across the disease continuum, from latent risk and pre-disease states to clinical manifestation, surpassing conventional public health prevention strategies that prioritise managing population-level risk factors. Traditional discovery and implementation models, however, remain poorly aligned with the pace and breadth of scientific and technological advances. This review outlines key barriers to scaling precision prevention and argues for the integration of conceptual, methodological, and policy perspectives into a single implementation‑oriented framework. MAIN: Individualised risk stratification lies at the core of precision prevention. Genomics serves as a stable substrate for lifetime susceptibility assessment, while meaningful prediction in multifactorial chronic disease requires additional risk monitoring using dynamic intermediate molecular markers and high-resolution exposomic data. Machine learning and other artificial intelligence (AI) methods are increasingly helpful tools for integrating large, heterogeneous and temporally structured real-world data to generate personalised predictions of health trajectories. Trustworthy AI-enabled risk prediction or decision-support systems are expected to provide transparency about model logic, assumptions and performance. In discovery, existing diagnostic classifications and conventional case-control designs can obscure mechanistic heterogeneity. Shifting toward precision phenotyping and biologically grounded disease redefinition could reveal a new layer of molecular understanding. Evidence generation strategies that reflect the temporal change of disease, including high‑risk enrichment, surrogate endpoints, and adaptive, trajectory-based monitoring, are particularly important for common conditions with prolonged latency periods (e.g., cancer, cardiovascular disease). Features often dismissed as "noise", such as stochastic molecular variation and minimal exposures, may in fact encode meaningful individual-level signals and thus merit investigation. CONCLUSION: To shift healthcare from reactive treatment toward proactive health maintenance requires coordinated action from stakeholders to reshape the pillars of discovery, reform outcome assessments and modernise implementation strategies.

Humans↗

Genome-wide association study meta-analysis provides insights into the etiology of heart failure and its subtypes.

Heart failure (HF) is a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality. While distinct clinical subtypes, defined by etiology and left ventricular ejection fraction, are well recognized, their genetic determinants remain inadequately understood. In this study, we report a genome-wide association study of HF and its subtypes in a sample of 1.9 million individuals. A total of 153,174 individuals had HF, of whom 44,012 had a nonischemic etiology (ni-HF). A subset of patients with ni-HF were stratified based on left ventricular systolic function, where data were available, identifying 5,406 individuals with reduced ejection fraction and 3,841 with preserved ejection fraction. We identify 66 genetic loci associated with HF and its subtypes, 37 of which have not previously been reported. Using functionally informed gene prioritization methods, we predict effector genes for each identified locus, and map these to etiologic disease clusters through phenome-wide association analysis, network analysis and colocalization. Through heritability enrichment analysis, we highlight the role of extracardiac tissues in disease etiology. We then examine the differential associations of upstream risk factors with HF subtypes using Mendelian randomization. These findings extend our understanding of the mechanisms underlying HF etiology and may inform future approaches to prevention and treatment.

Humans↗

Cardiothoracic ratio within the "normal" range independently predicts mortality in patients undergoing coronary angiography.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether cardiothoracic ratio (CTR), within the range conventionally considered normal, predicted prognosis in patients undergoing coronary angiography. DESIGN: Cohort study with a median of 7-years follow-up. SETTING: Consecutive patients undergoing coronary angiography at Barts and The London National Health Service (NHS) Trust. SUBJECTS: 1005 patients with CTRs measured by chest radiography, and who subsequently underwent coronary angiography. Of these patients, 7.3% had a CTR > or =0.5 and were excluded from the analyses. OUTCOMES: All-cause mortality and coronary event (non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death). Adjustments were made for age, left ventricular dysfunction, ACE inhibitor treatment, body mass index, number of diseased coronary vessels and past coronary artery bypass graft. RESULTS: The risk of death was increased among patients with a CTR in the upper part of the normal range. In total, 94 (18.9%) of those with a CTR below the median of 0.42 died compared with 120 (27.8%) of those with a CTR between 0.42 and 0.49 (log rank test p<0.001). After adjusting for potential confounders, this increased risk remained (adjusted HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.03 to 2.05). CTR, at values below 0.5, was linearly related to the risk of coronary event (test for trend p = 0.024). CONCLUSION: In patients undergoing coronary angiography, CTR between 0.42 and 0.49 was associated with higher mortality than in patients with smaller hearts. There was evidence of a continuous increase in risk with higher CTR. These findings, along with those in healthy populations, question the conventional textbook cut-off point of > or =0.5 being an abnormal CTR.

Anthropometry↗

Depression as an aetiologic and prognostic factor in coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis of 6362 events among 146 538 participants in 54 observational studies.

AIMS: With negative treatment trials, the role of depression as an aetiological or prognostic factor in coronary heart disease (CHD) remains controversial. We quantified the effect of depression on CHD, assessing the extent of confounding by coronary risk factors and disease severity. METHODS AND RESULTS: Meta-analysis of cohort studies measuring depression with follow-up for fatal CHD/incident myocardial infarction (aetiological) or all-cause mortality/fatal CHD (prognostic). We searched MEDLINE and Science Citation Index until December 2003. In 21 aetiological studies, the pooled relative risk of future CHD associated with depression was 1.81 (95% CI 1.53-2.15). Adjusted results were included for 11 studies, with adjustment reducing the crude effect marginally from 2.08 (1.69-2.55) to 1.90 (1.49-2.42). In 34 prognostic studies, the pooled relative risk was 1.80 (1.50-2.15). Results adjusted for left ventricular function result were available in only eight studies; and this attenuated the relative risk from 2.18 to 1.53 (1.11-2.10), a 48% reduction. Both aetiological and prognostic studies without adjusted results had lower unadjusted effect sizes than studies from which adjusted results were included (P<0.01). CONCLUSION: Depression has yet to be established as an independent risk factor for CHD because of incomplete and biased availability of adjustment for conventional risk factors and severity of coronary disease.

Cohort Studies↗

Prognosis of stable angina pectoris: why we need larger population studies with higher endpoint resolution.

The prognosis of angina was described as "unhappy" by the Framingham investigators and as little different from that of 1-year survivors of acute myocardial infarction. Yet recent clinical trials now report that angina has a good prognosis with adverse outcomes reduced to "normal levels". These disparate prognostic assessments may not be incompatible, applying as they do to population cohorts (Framingham) and selected participants in clinical trials. Comparisons between studies are further complicated by the absence of agreed case definitions for stable angina (contrast this with acute coronary syndromes). Our recent data show that for patients with recent onset symptoms attending chest pain clinics, angina remains a high-risk diagnosis and although many patients receive symptomatic benefit from revascularisation, prognosis is usually unaffected. This leaves little room for complacency and, with angina the commonest initial manifestation of coronary artery disease, there is the opportunity for early detection, risk stratification and treatment to modify outcomes. Meanwhile, larger population-based studies are needed to define the patient journey from earliest presentation through the various syndrome transitions to coronary or noncardiac death in order to increase understanding of the aetiological and prognostic differences between the different coronary disease phenotypes.

Age Distribution↗

Prognosis research: why is Dr. Lydgate still waiting?

BACKGROUND: Understanding prognosis--the future risk of adverse outcomes among people with existing disease--plays third fiddle behind clinical research into therapeutic interventions and novel diagnostic technologies. METHODS AND RESULTS: Diseases show marked variations in a wide range of prognostic outcomes, yet these variations have seldom been the subject of systematic and sustained epidemiologic and multidisciplinary research. This is important to prioritize hypotheses for testing in intervention studies in groups, and to refine tools for prognostication in individuals. Methodologic standards for the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prognosis research are required. Training is needed for the clinicians, policymakers, and payers who use prognostic information. CONCLUSION: Here, arguments detracting from the potential scope of prognosis research are rebutted and misconceptions addressed with the aim of stimulating debate on the evolving role of prognosis research.

Disease↗

Incidence and prognostic implications of stable angina pectoris among women and men.

CONTEXT: Stable angina pectoris in women has often been considered a "soft" diagnosis, with less-severe prognostic implications than in men, but large-scale population studies are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To determine sex differences in the incidence and prognosis of stable angina in a large ambulatory population. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study using linked national registers. SETTING: All municipal primary health care centers, hospital outpatient clinics, occupational health care services, and the private sector in Finland. PARTICIPANTS: Among ambulatory patients aged 45 to 89 years who had no history of coronary disease, we defined new cases of "nitrate angina" based on nitrate prescription (56,441 women and 34,885 men) or "test-positive angina" based on abnormal invasive or noninvasive test results (11,391 women and 15,806 men). Potentially eligible patients were evaluated between January 1, 1996, and December 31, 1998. Follow-up ended in December 2001. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Coronary mortality at 4 years (n = 7906 deaths) and fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction at 1 year (n = 3129 events). RESULTS: The age-standardized annual incidence per 100 population of all cases of angina was 2.03 in men and 1.89 in women, with a sex ratio of 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.09). At every age, nitrate angina in women and men was associated with a similar increase in risk of coronary mortality relative to the general population. Women with test-positive angina who were younger than 75 years had higher coronary-standardized mortality ratios than men; for example, among those aged 55 to 64 years, it was 4.69 (95% CI, 3.60-6.11) in women compared with 2.40 (95% CI, 2.11-2.73) in men (P<.001 for interaction). There was a strong, graded relationship between amount of nitrates used and event rates; women using higher doses of nitrates had prognoses comparable with those of men. Among patients with diabetes and test-positive angina, age-standardized coronary event rates were 9.9 per 100 person-years in women vs 9.3 in men (P = .69), and the fully adjusted male-female sex ratio was 1.07 (95% CI, 0.81-1.41). CONCLUSIONS: Women have a similarly high incidence of stable angina compared with men. Furthermore, stable angina in women is associated with increased coronary mortality relative to women in the general population and, among easily identifiable clinical subgroups, has similarly high absolute rates of prognostic outcomes compared with men.

Age Distribution↗

Searching for observational studies: what does citation tracking add to PubMed? A case study in depression and coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND: PubMed is the most widely used method for searches of the medical literature, but fails to identify many relevant articles. Electronic citation tracking offers an alternative search method. METHODS: Articles investigating the role of depression in the aetiology and prognosis of coronary heart disease were sought through two methods: a) PubMed, and b) citation tracking where Science Citation Index was searched for all articles which cited ("forward citation tracking") or were cited by ("backward citation tracking") any of the articles in an index review. The number and quality of eligible articles identified by the two methods were compared. RESULTS: 50 articles that were not already included in the index review met our inclusion criteria; 11 were identified through Science Citation Index alone, 8 through PubMed alone, and 31 through both methods. Articles identified by Science Citation Index alone were published in higher impact factor journals, were larger and were less likely to show a positive association. CONCLUSION: Science Citation Index identified more eligible articles than PubMed, and these differed qualitatively. Failing to use citation tracking in a systematic review of observational studies may result in bias.

Abstracting and Indexing↗

Comparison of the relation between renal impairment, angiographic coronary artery disease, and long-term mortality in women versus men.

Mild to moderate renal impairment has recently been associated with increased cardiovascular mortality. However, gender differences in the association of mild to moderate renal impairment with the presence of angiographic coronary artery disease and long-term mortality remain unknown. We examined a prospective cohort of consecutive patients who underwent coronary angiography from the ACRE study in the Royal Hospitals Trust (London, United Kingdom) with referral from 5 contiguous health authorities. Among 1,609 patients (465 women) who had angiographic and serum creatinine measurements at baseline, renal impairment at modification of diet in renal disease glomerular filtration rates of 45 to 59, 30 to 44, and <30 ml/min/1.73 m(2) was more common in women than in men and was significantly associated with the presence of angiographic coronary artery disease in women but not in men. At each level of glomerular filtration rate, multivariate adjusted hazard ratios of 7-year all-cause mortality for women compared with men were higher: 2.64 (95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.21 to 5.73) versus 1.34 (95% CI 0.995 to 1.79); 2.62 (95% CI 1.12 to 16.12) versus 2.35 (95% CI 1.60 to 3.43); and 10.42 (95% CI 3.97 to 27.39) versus 4.77 (95% CI 2.95 to 7.70), respectively. Similar patterns were observed in cardiovascular and coronary deaths. In conclusion, mild to moderate renal impairment may be a marker for unmeasured proatherogenic factors for women only, and women may bear a greater mortality burden that is attributable to renal impairment compared with men. Gender may influence the prognostic effect of renal impairment in coronary disease.

Aged↗

Depression in older people in rural China.

BACKGROUND: In Western countries depression is the most common psychiatric condition in older persons and related to low socioeconomic status and low social supports. Along with social deprivation, the rural communities in China retain many Chinese traditions that involve high levels of social supports. Studying such a population might offer insights into the cause and prevention of depression that may be applicable in developing and developed countries. METHODS: Using a cross-sectional, household-based, community survey in rural China, we aimed to determine the prevalence of and risk factors for depression among older people who had a low income (mean annual per capita income of about 280 US dollars) and high social support in 16 villages in Anhui Province. Participants included 754 men and 846 women aged 60 years or older. Depression was diagnosed using the Geriatric Mental State and the Automated Geriatric Examination for Computer Assisted Taxonomy. Risk factors, collected from the standard questionnaire and physical measurements, were examined in a stepwise multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: The prevalence of depression (world age standardized) was 6.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.8%-7.3%). Of all persons, 1374 older persons (85.9%) living with family members. Depression was significantly and independently associated with female gender, low family income, lack of social support, relationship problems, poor health status, and adverse life events in the past 2 years. The risk of depression increased in those eating meat less than once a week (multiple-adjusted odds ratio, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.20-4.03), not watching television (odds ratio, 1.76; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-3.00), and having undetected hypertension (odds ratio, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.05-3.01). CONCLUSIONS: Older people in rural China have a lower risk of depression than those in Western countries. Low socioeconomic status showed a "dose-response" relationship with depression, and social supports were much more common, which were protective for depression. Further exploration of Chinese culture and tradition may yield universal insights into preventive factors for depression in older people.

Age Factors↗

Recruiting patients to medical research: double blind randomised trial of "opt-in" versus "opt-out" strategies.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effect of opt-in compared with opt-out recruitment strategies on response rate and selection bias. DESIGN: Double blind randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Two general practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: 510 patients with angina. INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly allocated to an opt-in (asked to actively signal willingness to participate in research) or opt-out (contacted repeatedly unless they signalled unwillingness to participate) approach for recruitment to an observational prognostic study of patients with angina. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Recruitment rate and clinical characteristics of patients. RESULTS: The recruitment rate, defined by clinic attendance, was 38% (96/252) in the opt-in arm and 50% (128/258) in the opt-out arm (P = 0.014). Once an appointment had been made, non-attendance at the clinic was similar (20% opt-in arm v 17% opt-out arm; P = 0.86). Patients in the opt-in arm had fewer risk factors (44% v 60%; P = 0.053), less treatment for angina (69% v 82%; P = 0.010), and less functional impairment (9% v 20%; P = 0.023) than patients in the opt-out arm. CONCLUSIONS: The opt-in approach to participant recruitment, increasingly required by ethics committees, resulted in lower response rates and a biased sample. We propose that the opt-out approach should be the default recruitment strategy for studies with low risk to participants.

Adult↗

Does autonomic function link social position to coronary risk? The Whitehall II study.

BACKGROUND: Laboratory and clinical studies suggest that the autonomic nervous system responds to chronic behavioral and psychosocial stressors with adverse metabolic consequences and that this may explain the relation between low social position and high coronary risk. We sought to test this hypothesis in a healthy occupational cohort. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study comprised 2197 male civil servants 45 to 68 years of age in the Whitehall II study who were undergoing standardized assessments of social position (employment grade) and the psychosocial, behavioral, and metabolic risk factors for coronary disease previously found to be associated with low social position. Five-minute recordings of heart rate variability (HRV) were used to assess cardiac parasympathetic function (SD of N-N intervals and high-frequency power [0.15 to 0.40 Hz]) and the influence of sympathetic and parasympathetic function (low-frequency power [0.04 to 0.15 Hz]). Low employment grade was associated with low HRV (age-adjusted trend for each modality, P< or =0.02). Adverse behavioral factors (smoking, exercise, alcohol, and diet) and psychosocial factors (job control) showed age-adjusted associations with low HRV (P<0.03). The age-adjusted mean low-frequency power was 319 ms2 among those participants in the bottom tertile of job control compared with 379 ms2 in the other participants (P=0.004). HRV showed strong (P<0.001) linear associations with components of the metabolic syndrome (waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, and fasting and 2-hour postload glucose). The social gradient in prevalence of metabolic syndrome was explained statistically by adjustment for low-frequency power, behavioral factors, and job control. CONCLUSIONS: Chronically impaired autonomic function may link social position to different components of coronary risk in the general population.

Aged↗

Working while ill as a risk factor for serious coronary events: the Whitehall II study.

OBJECTIVES: Although sick, some people take no time off work, a phenomenon called "sickness presenteeism." This study examined the association between sickness presenteeism and incidence of serious coronary events. METHODS: The analyses were based on a cohort of 5071 male British civil servants without previous myocardial infarction. Baseline screening included measurements of health status and coronary risk factors. Absence records were assessed for the 3 years subsequent to baseline screening. The outcome of interest was incident nonfatal myocardial infarction or fatal coronary heart disease (mean length of follow-up=9.1 years). RESULTS: Seventeen percent of unhealthy employees took no absence during the 3-year follow-up. Their incidence of serious coronary events was twice as high as that of the unhealthy employees with moderate levels of sickness absenteeism (after adjustment for conventional risk factors, hazard ratio 1.97, 95% confidence interval=1.02, 3.83). CONCLUSIONS: Employers and employees should be aware of the potential harmful effects caused by sickness presenteeism.

Adult↗

Does access to cardiac investigation and treatment contribute to social and ethnic differences in coronary heart disease? Whitehall II prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether access to cardiac procedures and drugs contributes to social and ethnic differences in coronary heart disease in a population setting. DESIGN: Prospective study with follow up over 15 years. Civil service employment grade was used as a measure of individual socioeconomic position. Need for cardiac care was determined by the presence of angina, myocardial infarction, and coronary risk factors. SETTING: 20 civil service departments originally located in London. PARTICIPANTS: 10,308 civil servants (3414 women; 560 South Asian) aged 35-55 years at baseline in 1985-8. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Use of exercise electrocardiography, coronary angiography, and coronary revascularisation procedures and secondary prevention drugs. RESULTS: Inverse social gradients existed in incident coronary morbidity and mortality. South Asian participants also had higher rates than white participants. After adjustment for clinical need, social position showed no association with the use of cardiac procedures or secondary prevention drugs. For example, men in the low versus high employment grade had an age adjusted odds ratio for angiography of 1.87 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.64), which decreased to 1.27 (0.83 to 1.94) on adjustment for clinical need. South Asians tended to be more likely to have cardiac procedures and to be taking more secondary prevention drugs than white participants, even after adjustment for clinical need. CONCLUSION: This population based study, which shows the widely observed social and ethnic patterning of coronary heart disease, found no evidence that low social position or South Asian ethnicity was associated with lower use of cardiac procedures or drugs, independently of clinical need. Differences in medical care are unlikely to contribute to social or ethnic differences in coronary heart disease in this cohort.

Adult↗

Prospective validity of measuring angina severity with Canadian Cardiovascular Society class: The ACRE study.

BACKGROUND: Although the prevalence of angina remains high, the importance of grading angina severity is unclear. OBJECTIVES: To determine the extent to which angina severity is associated with angiographic findings, and the rate of revascularization, mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction. METHODS: Prospective, population-based study with a 2.5-year follow-up of 2849 consecutive patients with angina undergoing coronary angiography at Barts and the London NHS Trust, London, United Kingdom, in the Appropriateness of Coronary Revascularisation (ACRE) study. Angina severity was assessed with the Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS) classification, ranging from class I (mild) to IV (severe). Outcome measures were revascularization rates, and all-cause mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction. RESULTS: In age-adjusted analyses, a higher CCS class was linearly associated (P<0.001) with a higher number of diseased vessels and impaired left ventricular function. When adjusting for age, sex, smoking, history of hypertension, diabetes, number of diseased vessels, left ventricular function, use of acetylsalicylic acid, beta-blockers or statins, and revascularization status (for death and nonfatal myocardial infarction), a higher CCS class was linearly associated with higher coronary angioplasty (P<0.001) and bypass graft (P=0.03) rates, and lower all-cause mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction (P<0.001; CCS IV versus I: hazard ratio 2.44, 95% CI 1.46 to 4.09). CONCLUSION: CCS class was linearly associated with angiographic findings, revascularization rates, mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction. These findings support the importance of a four-level grading of symptom severity among angina patients.

Angina Pectoris↗

The determinants and effect of shared care on patient outcomes and psychiatric admissions - an inner city primary care cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the factors associated with receipt of different levels of shared care, and the effect of shared care on patient outcomes. METHOD: A total of 349 patients with severe mental illness were selected from general practice lists. Patient functioning was assessed using standardised questionnaires, and GPs completed a questionnaire about patients' shared care arrangements at baseline (response-rate 79%). Patients were followed up at 12 months. RESULTS: Receipt of high shared care was associated with greater patient satisfaction with services and social functioning at baseline (p < 0.005). Patients receiving high shared care showed greater improvements in SF-12 mental health scores at follow-up compared to low shared care groups (p = 0.02). This effect was abolished after adjustment for age, sex and psychiatric diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Receipt of high shared care was not associated with demographic or clinical characteristics. High shared care had limited value for patients in terms of improved clinical, social or general health functioning over one year.

Adult↗

Influence of practices' ethnicity and deprivation on access to angiography: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease is more common among some ethnic minority groups (particularly people from the Indian sub-continent living in Europe and North America) and in socially deprived populations. Hospital studies in the United Kingdom (UK) suggest that these groups have less access to treatment for coronary heart disease. Studies from primary care have found reduced access to angiography for lower social class groups, but there are no studies on the ethnicity of primary care populations in relation to angiography. AIMS: To determine the influence of ethnicity and social deprivation in primary care on access to coronary angiography. DESIGN OF STUDY: Ecological study measuring general practices' ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and nitrate prescribing rates with angiography rates. SETTING: General practices (n = 143) in East London, UK. METHOD: Ecological study measuring the proportion of general practice populations with South Asian ethnicity and high social deprivation score (Carstairs). Nitrate prescriptions and admissions for myocardial infarction per 1000 population per year were used as measures of need. Distance from the tertiary centre was used as a measure of supply. The outcome measure was coronary angiography procedures data (n = 869) collected in the context of the appropriateness of coronary revascularisation study. RESULTS: Practices with a higher proportion of South Asian patients had higher rates of angiography after adjustment for age, distance, deprivation, nitrate prescribing and myocardial infarction admissions (regression coefficient B = 0.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.01 to 0.03, P<0.001). There was no association between deprivation and angiography (regression coefficient B = -0.41, 95% CI = -0.13 to 0.05, P = 0.393). CONCLUSION: General practices with a higher proportion of South Asian patients had higher rates of angiography, challenging the widely held belief that access may be inequitable. Deprivation shows no relationship with angiography in this study.

Coronary Angiography↗