Biomedical subjects

Nils Chr Stenseth

Publications and source records attributed to Nils Chr Stenseth.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2006

Ocean climate prior to breeding affects the duration of the nestling period in the Atlantic puffin.

Time-series covering 23 years for a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica L.) at Røst, northern Norway, was used to explore any indirect effects of climatic variations on chick production. By fitting statistical models on the duration of the nestling period, we found that it may be estimated using the average sea temperature and salinity at 0-20 m depth in March (having a positive and a negative effect, respectively). We propose that when the phytoplankton bloom occurs in early spring, adverse oceanographic conditions, i.e. low temperature and high salinity in March, have a negative effect on puffin reproduction by degradation of the prey availability (mainly Clupea harengus) for chick-feeding adults three months later.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Environmental forcing as a main determinant of bloom dynamics of the Chrysochromulina algae.

In this paper, we demonstrate that the seasonal dynamics in the abiotic factors, without including seasonal changes in the biological relationships, can appropriately account for the seasonal dynamics of Chrysochromulina spp. This is through the analysis of data on the population dynamics of Chrysochromulina spp. off southern Norway that is evaluated in relation to environmental factors and season by the analyses of 12 year monthly time-series. Chrysochromulina spp. abundance, nutrient concentrations, hydrographical properties, as well as current and wind data were analysed on a monthly scale by means of autoregressive moving average models, principal component analyses (PCA), and linear and nonlinear regression models. Seasonal development of the Chrysochromulina assemblage was well predicted from regression models forced with two PCA components representing seasonal variation in nutrient and chlorophyll a levels and ratios, inflow of North Seawater to the Skagerrak and northeasterly wind along the Norwegian coast. Assuming these to be general results, we might hypothesis that marine algal communities are governed by seasonally varying abiotic factors to a large extent.

Chlorophyll↗

PubMed2006

The ideal free pike: 50 years of fitness-maximizing dispersal in Windermere.

The ideal free distribution (IFD) theory is one of the most influential theories in evolutionary ecology. It predicts how animals ought to distribute themselves within a heterogeneous habitat in order to maximize lifetime fitness. We test the population level consequence of the IFD theory using 40-year worth data on pike (Esox lucius) living in a natural lake divided into two basins. We do so by employing empirically derived density-dependent survival, dispersal and fecundity functions in the estimation of basin-specific density-dependent fitness surfaces. The intersection of the fitness surfaces for the two basins is used for deriving expected spatial distributions of pike. Comparing the derived expected spatial distributions with 50 years data of the actual spatial distribution demonstrated that pike is ideal free distributed within the lake. In general, there was a net migration from the less productive north basin to the more productive south basin. However, a pike density-manipulation experiment imposing shifting pike density gradients between the two basins managed to switch the net migration direction and hence clearly demonstrated that the Windermere pike choose their habitat in an ideal free manner. Demonstration of ideal free habitat selection on an operational field scale like this has never been undertaken before.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Seasonal plankton dynamics along a cross-shelf gradient.

Much interest has recently been devoted to reconstructing the dynamic structure of ecological systems on the basis of time-series data. Using 10 years of monthly data on phyto- and zooplankton abundance from the Bay of Biscay (coastal to shelf-break sites), we demonstrate that the interaction between these two plankton components is approximately linear, whereas the effects of environmental factors (nutrients, temperature, upwelling and photoperiod) on these two plankton population growth rates are nonlinear. With the inclusion of the environmental factors, the main observed seasonal and inter-annual dynamic patterns within the studied plankton assemblage also indicate the prevalence of bottom-up regulatory control.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation.

The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1 degrees C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds.

Several bird species have advanced the timing of their spring migration in response to recent climate change. European short-distance migrants, wintering in temperate areas, have been assumed to be more affected by change in the European climate than long-distance migrants wintering in the tropics. However, we show that long-distance migrants have advanced their spring arrival in Scandinavia more than short-distance migrants. By analyzing a long-term data set from southern Italy, we show that long-distance migrants also pass through the Mediterranean region earlier. We argue that this may reflect a climate-driven evolutionary change in the timing of spring migration.

Africa↗

PubMed2006

Good reindeer mothers live longer and become better in raising offspring.

Longevity is the main factor influencing individual fitness of long-lived, iteroparous species. Theories of life history evolution suggest this is because increased longevity allows individuals to (i) have more breeding attempts (time component), (ii) accumulate experience so as to become better able to rear offspring (experience component) or (iii) because individuals reaching old age have above-average quality (quality component). We assess empirically the relative influences of time, experience and quality on the relationship between longevity and individual fitness among female reindeer. Fitness increased with longevity due to all three processes. All females increased in success with age up to their penultimate year of life (experience component), the success of the terminal-breeding occasion was strongly dependent on longevity. Long-lived females had more successful breeding attempts during their life (time component), and had higher reproductive success at all ages, especially during the last year of life (individual quality component) than short-lived females. Our study reveals a more complex relationship between longevity and fitness in large mammals than the simple increase of the number of reproductive attempts when living longer.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2006

Ecological and genetic impact of Atlantic cod larval drift in the Skagerrak.

We evaluate the hypothesis that Atlantic cod larvae are passively transported by sea currents from off-shore spawning areas to settle in coastal waters, a hypothesis which has recently gained support from genetic analysis of cod in the North Sea-Skagerrak area. Such larval transport has been suggested to be an important mechanism behind the commonly observed low spatial genetic differentiation in many marine organisms. Here, we apply an ARMAX(2,2) model for juvenile abundance and use long-term monitoring data from the Skagerrak coast, constituting 54 continuous annual series from 1945 to 1997. Analysing the model, we find that the product of the size of the North Sea breeding stock and the strength of the net inflow of North Sea waters had a significant, positive effect on the abundance of coastal juvenile cod. The peak effect occurs during the month of March, just after spawning, when eggs and larvae remain pelagic and sensitive to currents. In contrast, we find no evidence of any direct effect of the North Sea spawning stock alone. Our analyses indicate that 15-20,000 0-group larvae from the North Sea reach each fjord per year, on average. This corresponds to about 1-10% of the total 0-group population in each fjord on average. These findings clearly demonstrate a direct link between larval drift and gene flow in the marine environment.

Animal Migration↗

PubMed2006

The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa.

Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961-2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982-2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for approximately 20 million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global climate changes toward more El Niño-like conditions, as most climate models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected by El Niño events. Management measures include annual changes in crop selection and storage strategies in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation-based and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing season.

Africa↗

PubMed2006

Testing five hypotheses of sexual segregation in an arctic ungulate.

1. Sexual segregation occurs in most species of sexually dimorphic ungulates. At least five not mutually exclusive hypotheses have been formulated to explain patterns of social, habitat and spatial segregation; the indirect competition hypothesis (H1), the nutritional needs hypothesis (H2), the activity budget hypothesis (H3), the weather sensitivity hypothesis (H4), and the predation risk hypothesis (H5). 2. Each hypothesis has a unique set of predictions with respect to the occurrence of segregation, and how seasonality, density dependence and reproductive status affect sexual segregation. 3. We tested this set of predictions in order to separate the hypotheses H1-H5 for patterns of sexual segregation of the Svalbard reindeer based on 9 years data on seasonal estimates of spatial, habitat and social (i.e. grouping with their own sex) segregation in combination with resource selection functions. 4. Our results do not support that one single mechanism causes segregation. The activity budget hypothesis, the nutritional needs hypothesis and the weather sensitivity hypothesis were all partially supported, while the predation risk hypothesis was discarded for Svalbard reindeer because predators have been absent for at least 5000 years. Several mechanisms are thus interacting to explain the full-year pattern of sexual segregation and the combination of mechanisms varies among species and populations.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Increased effect of harsh climate in red deer with a poor set of teeth.

Teeth are vital for mammal performance and especially in ungulates relying on mechanical decomposition of plant material for effective microbial digestion and energy uptake. The main focus of the role of teeth in ungulate life histories has been on tooth wear, while no one has addressed to what extent deviation from the natural set of teeth (maldentition) causes variation in individual fitness components. Based on mandibles from 41,066 individual red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) collected from 1969 to 2001, we tested whether maldentition had an effect on individual body condition and whether this effect depended on environmental harshness. Females with maldentition (0.6% of the population) were in a poorer condition than individuals without tooth anomalies and the effect increased during unfavorable climatic conditions. The effect of maldentition in males was less clear. This study indicates that a well-functioning set of teeth is essential for mammal performance, and that selection pressure against (dental) anomalies is more pronounced when climate is unfavorable.

Age Factors↗

PubMed2005

Importance of climatological downscaling and plant phenology for red deer in heterogeneous landscapes.

Understanding how climate influences ecosystems represents a challenge in ecology and natural resource management. Although we know that climate affects plant phenology and herbivore performances at any single site, no study has directly coupled the topography-climate interaction (i.e. the climatological downscaling process) with large-scale vegetation dynamics and animal performances. Here we show how climatic variability (measured by the North Atlantic oscillation 'NAO') interacts with local topography in determining the vegetative greenness (as measured by the normalized difference vegetation index 'NDVI') and the body masses and seasonal movements of red deer (Cervus elaphus) in Norway. Warm springs induced an earlier onset of vegetation, resulting in earlier migration and higher body masses. Increasing values of the winter-NAO corresponded to less snow at low altitude (warmer, more precipitation results in more rain), but more snow at high altitude (colder, more precipitation corresponds to more snow) relative to winters with low winter-NAO. An increasing NAO thus results in a spatially more variable phenology, offering migrating deer an extended period with access to high-quality forage leading to increased body mass. Our results emphasize the importance of incorporating spring as well as the interaction between winter climate and topography when aiming at understanding how plant and animal respond to climate change.

Animal Migration↗

PubMed2005

From patterns to processes and back: analysing density-dependent responses to an abiotic stressor by statistical and mechanistic modelling.

Our knowledge about population-level effects of abiotic stressors is limited, largely due to lack of appropriate time-series data. To analyse interactions between an abiotic stressor and density-dependent processes, we used experimental time-series data for stage-structured populations (the blowfly Lucilia sericata) exposed to the toxicant cadmium through 20 generations. Resource limitation results in competition both in the larval and the adult stages. The toxicant has only negative effects at the organism level, but nevertheless, there were positive population-level effects. These are necessarily indirect, and indicate overcompensatory density-dependent responses. A non-parametric model (generalized additive model) was used to investigate the density-dependent structures of the demographic rates, without making assumptions about the functional forms. The estimated structures were used to develop a parametric model, with which we analysed effects of the toxicant on density-dependent and density-independent components of the stage-specific demographic rates. The parameter estimates identified both synergistic and antagonistic density-toxicant interactions. It is noteworthy that the synergistic interaction occurred together with a net positive effect of the toxicant. Hence, the effects of such interactions should be considered together with the capacity for compensatory responses. The combination of the two modelling approaches provided new insight into mechanisms for compensatory responses to abiotic stressors.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Climate change causing phase transitions of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) recruitment dynamics.

In 1976 the North Pacific climate shifted, resulting in an average increase of the water temperature. In the Gulf of Alaska the climate shift was followed (i.e. early 1980s) by a gradual but dramatic increase in the abundance of groundfish species that typically prey on pre-recruitment stages of walleye pollock. In the present study we used a previously parameterized model to investigate the effect of these climate and biological changes on the recruitment dynamics of walleye pollock in the Gulf of Alaska. Simulations covered the 1970-2000 time frame and emphasized the medium-to-long temporal scale (i.e. about 5-10 years) of environmental variability. Results showed that during periods characterized by high sea surface temperature and high predation on juvenile pollock stages, recruitment variability and magnitude were below average, and recruitment control was delayed to stages older than the 0-group. Opposite dynamics (i.e. high abundance and variability, and early recruitment control) occurred during periods characterized by low temperature and predation. These results are in general agreement with empirical observations, and allowed us to formulate causal explanations for their occurrence. We interpreted the delay of recruitment control and the reduction of variability as an effect of increased constraint on the abundance of post age-0 stages, in turn imposed by high density dependence and predation mortality. On the other hand, low density-dependence and predation favoured post age-0 survival, and allowed for an unconstrained link between larval and recruitment abundance. Our findings demonstrate that the dominant mechanisms of pollock survival change over contrasting climate regimes. Such changes may in turn cause a phase transition of recruitment dynamics with profound implications for the management of the entire stock.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Using the satellite-derived NDVI to assess ecological responses to environmental change.

Assessing how environmental changes affect the distribution and dynamics of vegetation and animal populations is becoming increasingly important for terrestrial ecologists to enable better predictions of the effects of global warming, biodiversity reduction or habitat degradation. The ability to predict ecological responses has often been hampered by our rather limited understanding of trophic interactions. Indeed, it has proven difficult to discern direct and indirect effects of environmental change on animal populations owing to limited information about vegetation at large temporal and spatial scales. The rapidly increasing use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in ecological studies has recently changed this situation. Here, we review the use of the NDVI in recent ecological studies and outline its possible key role in future research of environmental change in an ecosystem context.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2005

Spatio-temporal variability of richness estimators: coastal marine fish communities as examples.

We assessed the performance of two estimators of species richness, the Chao2 and the Coleman 'random placement curve'. Using a dataset of intertidal fish from the Norwegian Skagerrak coast, we found that Chao2 was effective for low sampling intensity, often reaching asymptotic values for few samples, but for higher sampling intensity the performance deteriorated. For large samples, the Coleman random placement curve was more effective than the Chao2 estimates when comparing spatio-temporal patterns of species richness. Spatial patterns were clearly and consistently identified by both methods, whereas the coastal fish communities displayed too much variability in the early summer for any sensible measure of temporal patterns of fish-species richness to be made. To control for spurious results due to systematic differences in mean abundance of the samples the analyses were performed also on data standardised by the number of individuals in the samples, without any significant change in the results. We conclude that modest sampling effort is sufficient to characterise spatial patterns of coastal fish-species richness, while a detailed and high-precision description of seasonal patterns could not be obtained with any reasonable sampling effort.

Analysis of Variance↗

PubMed2005

The relative role of winter and spring conditions: linking climate and landscape-scale plant phenology to alpine reindeer body mass.

The relative importance of winter harshness and early summer foraging conditions are of prime interest when assessing the effect of global warming on Arctic and mountainous ecosystems. We explored how climate and vegetation onset (satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data) determined individual performance in three reindeer populations (data on 27814 calves sampled over 11 years). Snow conditions, spring temperatures and topography were the main determinants of the onset of the vegetation. An earlier onset positively affected the body mass of calves born the following autumn, while there was no significant direct negative impact of the previous winter. This study underlines the major impact of winter and spring climatic conditions, determining the spring and summer food availability, and the subsequent growth of calves among alpine herbivores.

Animals↗