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Nils Chr Stenseth

Publications and source records attributed to Nils Chr Stenseth.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
PubMed2005

Bayesian population dynamics of interacting species: great gerbils and fleas in Kazakhstan.

We propose a discrete-time Bayesian hierarchical model for the population dynamics of the great gerbil-flea ecological system. The model accounts for the sampling variability arising from data originally collected for other purposes. The prior for the unknown population densities incorporates specific biological hypotheses regarding the interacting dynamics of the two species, as well as their life cycles, where density-dependent effects are included. Posterior estimates are obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo. The variance of the observed density estimates is a quadratic function of the unknown density. Our study indicates the presence of a density-dependent growth rate for the gerbil population. For the flea population there is clear evidence of density-dependent over-summer net growth, which is dependent on the flea-to-gerbil ratio at the beginning of the reproductive summer. Over-winter net growth is favored by high density. We estimate that on average 35% of the gerbil population survives the winter. Our study shows that hierarchical Bayesian models can be useful in extracting ecobiological information from observational data.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Modelling non-additive and nonlinear signals from climatic noise in ecological time series: Soay sheep as an example.

Understanding how climate can interact with other factors in determining patterns of species abundance is a persistent challenge in ecology. Recent research has suggested that the dynamics exhibited by some populations may be a non-additive function of climate, with climate affecting population growth more strongly at high density than at low density. However, we lack methodologies to adequately explain patterns in population growth generated as a result of interactions between intrinsic factors and extrinsic climatic variation in non-linear systems. We present a novel method (the Functional Coefficient Threshold Auto-Regressive (FCTAR) method) that can identify interacting influences of climate and density on population dynamics from time-series data. We demonstrate its use on count data on the size of the Soay sheep population, which is known to exhibit dynamics generated by nonlinear and non-additive interactions between density and climate, living on Hirta in the St Kilda archipelago. The FCTAR method suggests that climate fluctuations can drive the Soay sheep population between different dynamical regimes--from stable population size through limit cycles and non-periodic fluctuations.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Competition among fishermen and fish causes the collapse of Barents Sea capelin.

The vast majority of the world's fisheries are typically managed within a single-species perspective, ignoring the dynamic feedback mechanisms generated by the ecological web of which they are a part. Here we show that the dynamics of the Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus), the world's largest stock of this species, is strongly influenced by both within-system ecological feedback mechanisms and the impact of harvesting. Both overexploitation and predation by herring (Clupea harengus) can cause the population to collapse, whereas predation by cod (Gadus morhua) is demonstrated a delay in the stock's recovery after a collapse. Such collapses, which have occurred twice in 20 years, affect the entire Barents Sea ecosystem, a region that for ages has provided food for all of Europe.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Snow conditions may create an invisible barrier for lynx.

The dynamics of Canadian lynx (Lynx canadensis) abundance are geographically structured according to the influence of large-scale climatic regimes. Here we demonstrate that this structuring matches zones of differential snow conditions, in particular surface hardness, as determined by the frequency of winter warm spells. Through a modified functional response curve, we show that various features of the snow may influence lynx interaction with its main prey species, the snowshoe hare (Lepus americanus). This study highlights the importance of snow, and exemplifies how large-scale climatic fluctuations can mechanistically influence population biological patterns.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Transport of North Sea cod larvae into the Skagerrak coastal populations.

The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is economically one of the world's most important marine species--a species presently suffering from heavy overexploitation throughout its range of distribution. Although not fully understood, the Atlantic cod is believed to be structured into populations in a rather complex manner, whereby both highly migratory and more confined ocean-spawning stocks coexist with stationary coastal populations. Owing to the complex population structure, little is presently known about how overexploitation of offshore stocks may affect other segments of the species. Here, we use microsatellite DNA analyses of coastal and offshore cod in combination with oceanographic modelling to investigate the population structure of Atlantic cod in the North Sea-Skagerrak area and evaluate the potential for larval transport into coastal populations. Our results suggest an extensive but temporally variable drift of offshore cod larvae into coastal populations. In a year (2001) with high inflow of North Sea waters into the Skagerrak we find that juvenile cod caught along the Skagerrak coast are predominantly of North Sea origin, whereas in a year (2000) with low inflow juveniles appear to be of local origin. These findings indicate that offshore cod may influence coastal cod populations over large distances.

Animal Migration↗
PubMed2004

Multiple causes of sexual segregation in European red deer: enlightenments from varying breeding phenology at high and low latitude.

Sexual segregation outside the mating season occurs in most species of sexually dimorphic ungulates and has been extensively described in the literature, but the mechanisms causing segregation are still debated. The detailed pattern of sexual segregation throughout the year has rarely been presented for mammals, and no study, to our knowledge, has used latitudinal-related variation in breeding phenology to shed light on the underlying mechanisms. Recent methodological developments have made it possible to quantify separate components of segregation (social, habitat) and activity synchrony in animal groups, but these major improvements have so far been little used. We observed European red deer year round at two widely different latitudes (France and Norway) and tested three different mechanistic hypotheses of segregation related to: (i) predation risk; (ii) body-size-related forage selection; and (iii) activity budget. Habitat segregation peaked during calving in both populations and dropped rapidly after calving. Females with calves were more segregated from males than were females without calves, pointing to a key role of antipredator behaviour even though large predators are absent in France and extremely rare in Norway. However, at both sites individuals also grouped with their own sex within habitat types (i.e. social segregation), and individuals in mixed-sex groups were less synchronized in activity type than individuals in either unisex male or unisex female groups, suggesting that differences in activity budgets are involved. Social segregation peaked during calving and was lowest during the rut (indicating aggregation) in both populations; these activities occurred one month later in the Northern populations, corresponding well with known differences in breeding phenology. We conclude that latitude-dependent breeding phenology shapes the seasonal pattern of sexual segregation and that sexual segregation in ungulates has multiple causes.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan.

In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the bacterium Yersinia pestis circulates in natural populations of gerbils, which are the source of human cases of bubonic plague. Our analysis of field data collected between 1955 and 1996 shows that plague invades, fades out, and reinvades in response to fluctuations in the abundance of its main reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). This is a rare empirical example of the two types of abundance thresholds for infectious disease-invasion and persistence- operating in a single wildlife population. We parameterized predictive models that should reduce the costs of plague surveillance in central Asia and thereby encourage its continuance.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

The effect of climatic forcing on population synchrony and genetic structuring of the Canadian lynx.

The abundance of Canadian lynx follows 10-year density fluctuations across the Canadian subcontinent. These cyclic fluctuations have earlier been shown to be geographically structured into three climatic regions: the Atlantic, Continental, and Pacific zones. Recent genetic evidence revealed an essentially similar spatial structuring. Introducing a new population model, the "climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns" model, we link the observed ecological and evolutionary patterns. Specifically, we demonstrate that there is greater phase synchrony within climatic zones than between them and show that external climatic forcing may act as a synchronizer. We simulated genetic drift by using data on population dynamics generated by the climate forcing of ecological and evolutionary patterns model, and we demonstrate that the observed genetic structuring can be seen as an emerging property of the spatiotemporal ecological dynamics.

Animals↗
PubMed2004

Ecology: living in synchrony on Greenland coasts?

Theory indicates that correlated weather may synchronize populations, but the extent to which this holds for non-identical, nonlinear systems is uncertain. Post and Forchhammer claim to have shown climate-induced synchrony for musk oxen and caribou that are separated by the Greenland ice sheet. However, logical and mathematical errors undermine their finding. Whether or not large-scale weather can be a major synchronizing factor across species remains an open question.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Review article. Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation and beyond.

Whereas the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects weather and climate variability worldwide, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) represents the dominant climate pattern in the North Atlantic region. Both climate systems have been demonstrated to considerably influence ecological processes. Several other large-scale climate patterns also exist. Although less well known outside the field of climatology, these patterns are also likely to be of ecological interest. We provide an overview of these climate patterns within the context of the ecological effects of climate variability. The application of climate indices by definition reduces complex space and time variability into simple measures, 'packages of weather'. The disadvantages of using global climate indices are all related to the fact that another level of problems are added to the ecology-climate interface, namely the link between global climate indices and local climate. We identify issues related to: (i) spatial variation; (ii) seasonality; (iii) non-stationarity; (iv) nonlinearity; and (v) lack of correlation in the relationship between global and local climate. The main advantages of using global climate indices are: (i) biological effects may be related more strongly to global indices than to any single local climate variable; (ii) it helps to avoid problems of model selection; (iii) it opens the possibility for ecologists to make predictions; and (iv) they are typically readily available on Internet.

Climate↗
PubMed2003

Social rank, feeding and winter weight loss in red deer: any evidence of interference competition?

During winter at northern latitudes, large herbivores often exploit patches of concentrated, relatively high quality forage, which may lead to interference competition. The factors affecting success in contests and subsequent dominance rank, such as age and body weight, remain key issues in ungulate behavioural ecology. Maternal effects on offspring body weight are well known, but few studies have investigated if mother's social rank influence offspring rank. Moreover, no study has related dominance rank in ungulates to weight loss during winter. Outcomes of social interactions (n=7,609), feeding time and spatial position in red deer (Cervus elaphus) hinds and calves, and weight loss of calves, were registered from 1981 to 1996 at six winter-feeding sites within the county of Sør-Trøndelag in Norway. The level of aggressiveness was higher among calves than among adult hinds, and the factors determining the outcome of contests also differed. The initiator won the majority of interactions (more than 90% in both hinds and calves). Social rank was related to both age and body weight in adult hinds, and related to body weight and mother rank in calves. The relationship between feeding time and rank was non-linear. Feeding time was correlated with rank only among high ranked hinds, while there was no such relationship among low ranked hinds or calves. There was no correlation between winter weight loss and social rank in calves. Our study therefore underlines that, although frequent aggression is observed at artificial feeding sites of northern herbivores, this is not necessarily sufficient to give rise to interference competition.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2003

Population dynamics of small mammals in semi-arid regions: a comparative study of demographic variability in two rodent species.

The seasonally determined demographic structure of two semi-arid rodents, both agricultural pest species (the leaf-eared mouse (Phyllotis darwini) in Chile and the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) in Tanzania), is analysed using capture-mark-recapture (CMR) statistical models and measures for elasticity (the relative change in the growth rate due to a relative unit change in the parameter of concern) derived from projection linear matrix models. We demonstrate that reproduction and survival during the breeding season contribute approximately equally to population growth in the leaf-eared mouse, whereas the multimammate mouse is characterized by a more clearly defined seasonal structure into breeding and non-breeding seasons and that reproduction contributes far more than survival during the breeding season. On this basis, we discuss evolutionary and applied (pest control) issues. Regarding the evolution of life histories (leading to a maximization of the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that for the leaf-eared mouse, features favouring survival throughout the year will provide selective value, but that during the main breeding season, features favouring reproduction and survival are about equally favourable. For the multimammate mouse, features favouring survival are particularly important outside the breeding season, whereas during the breeding season features favouring reproduction are more important. Regarding pest control (aiming at reducing the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that (ignoring economic considerations) affecting survival outside the main breeding season is particularly effective for the leaf-eared mouse, a feature that is even more the case for the multimammate mouse. In sum, we demonstrate through this comparative study that much is to be learnt from studying the dynamics of fluctuating small rodents-a focal issue within much of population ecology.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Seasonality, density dependence, and population cycles in Hokkaido voles.

Voles and lemmings show extensive variation in population dynamics regulated across and within species. In an attempt to develop and test generic hypotheses explaining these differences, we studied 84 populations of the gray-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus) in Hokkaido, Japan. We show that these populations are limited by a combination of density-independent factors (such as climate) and density-dependent processes (such as specialist predators). We show that density-dependent regulation primarily occurs in winter months, so that populations experiencing longer winters tend to have a stronger delayed density-dependence and, as a result, exhibit regular density cycles. Altogether, we demonstrate that seasonality plays a key role in determining whether a vole population is cyclic or not.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Ecological and genetic spatial structuring in the Canadian lynx.

The Canadian lynx, distributed all across the northern part of North America, is well known for its regular population cycles-cycles that have different underlying structures in different parts of Canada. Using both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA markers, we report here a close resemblance between the earlier observed spatial ecological structuring of the Canadian lynx and its spatial genetic structuring. Specifically, we demonstrate that the Rocky Mountains represent a barrier to gene flow in western Canada, and, somewhat surprisingly, we detect the presence of a geographically invisible barrier south of Hudson Bay (coinciding with the separation between the ecological Continental and Atlantic regions). No evidence for isolation in different glacial refugia within North America was found. We suggest that ecological factors underlying the spatial dynamic structuring also strongly influence the genetic structuring of the Canadian lynx.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Trophic interactions under climate fluctuations: the Atlantic puffin as an example.

Co-occurrence in food requirements of offspring and food availability is a key factor determining breeding success. Prey availability is typically dependent on environmental conditions that are different from those influencing the predator's decision regarding whether or not to initiate breeding, and is not always optimal at the peak of reproduction requirements. We investigated this relationship to understand better what determines the fledging success of the Atlantic puffin (Fratercula arctica). Colony data from Røst (northern Norway) covering a period of 27 years were analysed with parallel data on sea temperature and the size and abundance of the puffins' main prey (the Norwegian spring-spawning herring, Clupea harengus). By fitting statistical models to the fledging success, we found that one effect of climate on this population of Atlantic puffins is indirect and mediated by sea temperature affecting the availability of first-year herring. The best model also demonstrates that the breeding success of the Røst puffins may be quantitatively predicted from the size of first-year herring and sea temperature.

Animal Nutritional Physiological Phenomena↗
PubMed2003

Decelerating and sex-dependent tooth wear in Norwegian red deer.

In ungulates, tooth wear is often suggested as a proximate cause of senescence. Tooth wear is expected to be sex-dependent since energetic requirements and food selection varies largely between sexes in sexually dimorphic ungulates. Furthermore, tooth wear may lower mastication efficiency, and we predict a negative correlation between tooth wear and body weight or condition. We tested these predictions on data on tooth wear (estimated as height of first molar) of 1,311 male and 1,348 female red deer ( Cervus elaphus) aged 3-25 years and harvested along the west coast of Norway. The rate of tooth wear decreased with age. Males wear teeth at a higher rate (from 0.61 mm/year in 4-year olds to 0.45 mm/year in 11-year olds) than females (from 0.52 mm/year in 4-year olds to 0.39 mm/year in 11-year olds). Molar height correlated positively with body weight in both sexes, but not after adjusting for body size. Molar height was strongly dependent on body size in 3-year-old individuals (when tooth wear is minimal). Earlier reports in the literature of a positive correlation between tooth height and body weight may therefore be due to initial size differences rather than differences in condition due to tooth wear.

Aging↗
PubMed2003

Smoothing for spatiotemporal models and its application to modeling muskrat-mink interaction.

For a set of spatially dependent dynamical models, we propose a method for estimating parameters that control temporal dynamics by spatial smoothing. The new approach is particularly relevant for analyzing spatially distributed panels of short time series. The asymptotic results show that spatial smoothing will improve the estimation in the presence of nugget effect, even when the sample size in each location is large. The proposed methodology is used to analyze the annual mink and muskrat data collected in a period of 25 years in 81 Canadian locations. Based on the proposed method, we are able to model the temporal dynamics which reflects the food chain interaction of the two species.

Animals↗