Biomedical subjects

Oliver G Pybus

Publications and source records attributed to Oliver G Pybus.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

PubMed2007

Phylogenetic evidence for deleterious mutation load in RNA viruses and its contribution to viral evolution.

Populations of RNA viruses are often characterized by abundant genetic variation. However, the relative fitness of these mutations is largely unknown, although this information is central to our understanding of viral emergence, immune evasion, and drug resistance. Here we develop a phylogenetic method, based on the distribution of nonsynonymous and synonymous changes, to assess the relative fitness of polymorphisms in the structural genes of 143 RNA viruses. This reveals that a substantial proportion of the amino acid variation observed in natural populations of RNA viruses comprises transient deleterious mutations that are later purged by purifying selection, potentially limiting virus adaptability. We also demonstrate, for the first time, the existence of a relationship between amino acid variability and the phylogenetic distribution of polymorphisms. From this relationship, we propose an empirical threshold for the maximum viable deleterious mutation load in RNA viruses.

Amino Acid Sequence↗

PubMed2007

Mitogenetic structure of brown bears (Ursus arctos L.) in northeastern Europe and a new time frame for the formation of European brown bear lineages.

We estimated the phylogenetic relationships of brown bear maternal haplotypes from countries of northeastern Europe (Estonia, Finland and European Russia), using sequences of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region of 231 bears. Twenty-five mtDNA haplotypes were identified. The brown bear population in northeastern Europe can be divided into three haplogroups: one with bears from all three countries, one with bears from Finland and Russia, and the third composed almost exclusively of bears from European Russia. Four haplotypes from Finland and European Russia matched exactly with haplotypes from Slovakia, suggesting the significance of the current territory of Slovakia in ancient demographic processes of brown bears. Based on the results of this study and those from the recent literature, we hypothesize that the West Carpathian Mountains have served either as one of the northernmost refuge areas or as an important movement corridor for brown bears of the Eastern lineage towards northern Europe during or after the last ice age. Bayesian analyses were performed to investigate the temporal framework of brown bear lineages in Europe. The molecular clock was calibrated using Beringian brown bear sequences derived from radiocarbon-dated ancient samples, and the estimated mutation rate was 29.8% (13.3%-47.6%) per million years. The whole European population and Western and Eastern lineages formed about 175,000, 70,000 and 25,000 years before present, respectively. Our approach to estimating the time frame of brown bear evolution demonstrates the importance of using an appropriate mutation rate, and this has implications for other studies of Pleistocene populations.

Animals↗

PubMed2006

Molecular epidemiology: HIV-1 and HCV sequences from Libyan outbreak.

In 1998, outbreaks of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection were reported in children attending Al-Fateh Hospital in Benghazi, Libya. Here we use molecular phylogenetic techniques to analyse new virus sequences from these outbreaks. We find that the HIV-1 and HCV strains were already circulating and prevalent in this hospital and its environs before the arrival in March 1998 of the foreign medical staff (five Bulgarian nurses and a Palestinian doctor) who stand accused of transmitting the HIV strain to the children.

Child↗

PubMed2006

A phylogenetic method for detecting positive epistasis in gene sequences and its application to RNA virus evolution.

RNA virus genomes are compact, often containing multiple overlapping reading frames and functional secondary structure. Consequently, it is thought that evolutionary interactions between nucleotide sites are commonplace in the genomes of these infectious agents. However, the role of epistasis in natural populations of RNA viruses remains unclear. To investigate the pervasiveness of epistasis in RNA viruses, we used a parsimony-based computational method to identify pairs of co-occurring mutations along phylogenies of 177 RNA virus genes. This analysis revealed widespread evidence for positive epistatic interactions at both synonymous and nonsynonymous nucleotide sites and in both clonal and recombining viruses, with the majority of these interactions spanning very short sequence regions. These findings have important implications for understanding the key aspects of RNA virus evolution, including the dynamics of adaptation. Additionally, many comparative analyses that utilize the phylogenetic relationships among gene sequences assume that mutations represent independent, uncorrelated events. Our results show that this assumption may often be invalid.

DNA Mutational Analysis↗

PubMed2006

Model selection and the molecular clock.

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Animals↗

PubMed2006

Population genetic history of hepatitis C virus 1b infection in China.

Subtype 1b is the most common strain of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in China. Here, the molecular epidemiology and epidemic history of this strain were investigated by conducting phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of E1 and NS5B gene sequences sampled from nine Chinese cities. The phylogenetic analysis indicated the presence of two clusters of Chinese strains that did not include reference strains from other countries, suggesting that these clusters represent two independent chains of HCV transmission within China. The remaining Chinese isolates were more closely related to reference strains from other countries. The date of origin and past population dynamics of the two groups were investigated using a new population genetic method, the Bayesian skyline plot. The estimated dates of origin of both groups coincide with the period of the Chinese 'Cultural Revolution' during the years 1966-1976. Both groups grew at a rapid exponential rate between approximately 1970 and approximately 1990, after which transmission slowed considerably. Possible explanations for the groups' fast spread and subsequent slowdown are discussed, including parenteral transmission by unsafe injection, iatrogenic transmission by infected blood or blood products and improvements in blood safety since 1990. These results shed light on HCV transmission in China and may help to predict the future burden of HCV-related disease in the country.

China↗

PubMed2006

JC virus evolution and its association with human populations.

The ubiquitous human polyomavirus JC (JCV) is a small double-stranded DNA virus that establishes a persistent infection, and it is often transmitted from parents to children. There are at least 14 subtypes of the virus associated with different human populations. Because of its presumed codivergence with humans, JCV has been used as a genetic marker for human evolution and migration. Codivergence has also been used as a basis for estimating the rate of nucleotide substitution in JCV. We tested the hypothesis of host-virus codivergence by (i) performing a reconciliation analysis of phylogenetic trees of human and JCV populations and (ii) providing the first estimate of the evolutionary rate of JCV that is independent from the assumption of codivergence. Strikingly, our comparisons of JCV and human phylogenies provided no evidence for codivergence, suggesting that this virus should not be used as a marker for human population history. Further, while the estimated nucleotide substitution rate of JCV has large confidence intervals due to limited sampling, our analysis suggests that this virus may evolve nearly two orders of magnitude faster than predicted under the codivergence hypothesis.

DNA, Mitochondrial↗

PubMed2006

Investigating the origin and spread of hepatitis C virus genotype 5a.

Epidemiological and phylogenetic studies of hepatitis C virus (HCV) have identified six major HCV genotypes and have attempted to characterize their origin and spread worldwide. Putative regions of endemic infection have been identified for all HCV genotypes except HCV genotype 5a. Although HCV genotype 5a was previously thought to be largely restricted to the northern part of South Africa, this study reports an unexpected cluster of the genotype in West Flanders Province in Belgium. To investigate the molecular epidemiology of this cluster and of HCV genotype 5a in general, a rigorous phylogenetic analysis of Belgian and South African HCV genotype 5a samples was performed. Remarkably, the Belgian and South African strains form two distinct clusters of similar diversity. We used a Bayesian coalescent method to estimate the rate of virus spread through time for HCV genotype 5a in both regions. Our results indicate that HCV genotype 5a strains have been spreading independently in Belgium and South Africa for more than 100 years, with a rate of spread characteristic of an epidemic genotype. These findings have major implications for tracing the origin of HCV genotype 5a. Here, we speculate about the possible origins of these clusters.

Belgium↗

PubMed2005

Host switch leads to emergence of Plasmodium vivax malaria in humans.

The geographical origin of Plasmodium vivax, the most widespread human malaria parasite, is controversial. Although genetic closeness to Asian primate malarias has been confirmed by phylogenetic analyses, genetic similarities between P. vivax and Plasmodium simium, a New World primate malaria, suggest that humans may have acquired P. vivax from New World monkeys or vice versa. Additionally, the near fixation of the Duffy-negative blood type (FY x B(null)/FY x B(null)) in West and Central Africa, consistent with directional selection, and the association of Duffy negativity with complete resistance to vivax malaria suggest a prolonged period of host-parasite coevolution in Africa. Here we use Bayesian and likelihood methods in conjunction with cophylogeny mapping to reconstruct the genetic and coevolutionary history of P. vivax from the complete mitochondrial genome of 176 isolates as well as several closely related Plasmodium species. Taken together, a haplotype network, parasite migration patterns, demographic history, and cophylogeny mapping support an Asian origin via a host switch from macaque monkeys.

Animals↗

PubMed2005

Genetic analysis reveals the complex structure of HIV-1 transmission within defined risk groups.

We explored the epidemic history of HIV-1 subtype B in the United Kingdom by using statistical methods that infer the population history of pathogens from sampled gene sequence data. Phylogenetic analysis of HIV-1 pol gene sequences from Britain showed at least six large transmission chains, indicating a genetically variable, but epidemiologically homogeneous, epidemic among men having sex with men. Through coalescent-based analysis, we showed that these chains arose through separate introductions of subtype B strains into the United Kingdom in the early to mid-1980s. After an initial period of exponential growth, the rate of spread generally slowed in the early 1990s, which is more likely to correlate with behavior change than with reduced infectiousness resulting from highly active antiretroviral therapy. Our results provide insights into the complexity of HIV-1 epidemics that must be considered when developing HIV monitoring and prevention initiatives.

Disease Outbreaks↗

PubMed2005

The hepatitis C virus epidemic among injecting drug users.

Given the economic and health costs of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, and the ongoing transmission within the injecting drug user (IDU) population, there is a need for improved understanding of HCV epidemiology within this risk group. We employed a recently developed method based on phylogenetic analysis to infer HCV epidemic history and to provide the first estimates of the rate of spread of subtypes 1a and 3a circulating within injecting drug user populations. The data indicates that HCV subtype 1a entered the IDU population on at least three separate occasions. Both subtypes demonstrate exponential population growth during the 20th century, with a doubling time of 7-8 years. The results provide a baseline for prediction of the future course of the HCV epidemic, and its likely response to transmission control policies.

Disease Outbreaks↗

PubMed2005

The evolutionary dynamics of endogenous retroviruses.

Endogenous retroviruses (ERVs) are vertically transmitted intragenomic elements derived from integrated retroviruses. ERVs can proliferate within the genome of their host until they either acquire inactivating mutations or are lost by recombinational deletion. We present a model that unifies current knowledge of ERV biology into a single evolutionary framework. The model predicts the possible long-term outcomes of retroviral germline infection and can account for the variable patterns of observed ERV genetic diversity. We hope the model will provide a useful framework for understanding ERV evolution, enabling the testing of evolutionary hypotheses and the estimation of parameters governing ERV proliferation.

Endogenous Retroviruses↗

PubMed2005

Invasion and maintenance of dengue virus type 2 and type 4 in the Americas.

Dengue virus type 4 (DENV-4) was first reported in the Americas in 1981, where it caused epidemics of dengue fever throughout the region. In the same year, the region's first epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever was reported, caused by an Asian strain of dengue virus type 2 (DENV-2) that was distinct from the American subtype circulating previously. Despite the importance of these epidemics, little is known about the rates or determinants of viral spread among island and mainland populations or their directions of movement. We employed a Bayesian coalescent approach to investigate the transmission histories of DENV-2 and DENV-4 since their introduction in 1981 and a parsimony method to assess patterns of strain migration. For both viruses there was an initial invasion phase characterized by an exponential increase in the number of DENV lineages, after which levels of genetic diversity remained constant despite reported fluctuations in DENV-2 and DENV-4 activity. Strikingly, viral lineage numbers increased far more rapidly for DENV-4 than DENV-2, indicative of a more rapid rate of exponential population growth in DENV-4 or a higher rate of geographic dispersal, allowing this virus to move more effectively among localities. We propose that these contrasting dynamics may reflect underlying differences in patterns of host immunity. Despite continued gene flow along particular transmission routes, the overall extent of viral traffic was less than expected under panmixis. Hence, DENV in the Americas has a clear geographic structure that maintains viral diversity between outbreaks.

Americas↗

PubMed2004

Comparative population dynamics of HIV-1 subtypes B and C: subtype-specific differences in patterns of epidemic growth.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic continues to grow at an alarming rate, with a further 5 million new infections in 2003. Some 3.5 million of these were in sub-Saharan Africa, where approximately 70% of the world's HIV-positive population resides. In contrast, the spread of HIV in high-income countries has slowed since its discovery in the 1980s, and in regions such as Western Europe prevalence has decreased. Here, we employ coalescent methods to compare the epidemic growth rates of two subtypes of HIV-1 with differing epidemiological profiles: subtype C, which is dominant in sub-Saharan Africa and associated with heterosexual transmission, and subtype B, the main cause of AIDS in Western Europe and North America, and which was primarily transmitted through homosexual sex and injecting drug use. We show that although both subtypes emerged at approximately the same time ( approximately 1960), they have widely differing patterns of exponential population growth. At its current growth rate the epidemic of subtype C in sub-Saharan Africa is doubling every 2.4 years, which is approximately half the rate observed during the early stages of the subtype B epidemic in Western Europe and North America. However, the subtype C growth rate is still 5-10 times greater than that estimated for the blood-borne hepatitis C virus, supporting the hypothesis that sexual transmission has been primarily responsible for the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

PubMed2004

A Bayesian statistical analysis of human T-cell lymphotropic virus evolutionary rates.

HTLV is a genetically-stable retrovirus that is considered to have evolved partly in concert with human migrations. Its rate of evolution is low and therefore, difficult to estimate reliably. In the first part of this study, we provide an improved estimate of HTLV evolutionary rate using anthropological calibration of phylogenetic nodes. We investigate two different anthropological calibrations using a Bayesian method that implements a relaxed molecular clock model and can combine data from multiple genes. The analysis shows that the two calibrations are compatible. In the second part, we develop a Bayesian statistical model to combine and compare the anthropology-based estimates of evolutionary rate with a rate recently calculated using pedigree data from vertically HTLV-infected families. We compare the statistical power of the two estimates and show that the current pedigree estimate, although resulting in considerably higher evolutionary rates, is too statistically weak to warrant a re-examination of the commonly used anthropology-based estimates. Statistical uncertainty burdens HTLV rate estimates based on both anthropological calibrations and on pedigree data; the former method rests on an untested assumption, whilst that latter is affected by small sample sizes.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2004

Rise and fall of the Beringian steppe bison.

The widespread extinctions of large mammals at the end of the Pleistocene epoch have often been attributed to the depredations of humans; here we present genetic evidence that questions this assumption. We used ancient DNA and Bayesian techniques to reconstruct a detailed genetic history of bison throughout the late Pleistocene and Holocene epochs. Our analyses depict a large diverse population living throughout Beringia until around 37,000 years before the present, when the population's genetic diversity began to decline dramatically. The timing of this decline correlates with environmental changes associated with the onset of the last glacial cycle, whereas archaeological evidence does not support the presence of large populations of humans in Eastern Beringia until more than 15,000 years later.

Alaska↗

PubMed2004

Viral gene sequences reveal the variable history of hepatitis C virus infection among countries.

BACKGROUND: The analysis of molecular phylogenies estimated from the gene sequences of sampled viruses can provide important insights into epidemiological processes. METHODS: The demographic and migration histories of the prevalent hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes 1a and 1b were inferred from viral gene sequences sampled in 5 countries. Estimated viral phylogenies were analyzed by use of methods based on parsimony and coalescent theory. RESULTS: The parsimony migration analysis suggested that the global subtype 1a and 1b epidemics are geographically structured, with asymmetrical movement of HCV strains among the sampled countries. The coalescent analysis indicated that subtype 1a infections in the United States, Brazil, and Indonesia began to increase exponentially during the 1940s and 1950s, whereas in Vietnam the increase began after the 1970s. In contrast, subtype 1b infections in these 4 countries and in Japan began to increase exponentially between 1880 and 1920, with a possible recent decrease in infection rates in Indonesia and Japan. In the United States, Brazil, and Vietnam, the epidemic growth rates for subtype 1a strains were higher than those for subtype 1b strains, whereas the growth rates were similar in Indonesia. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated histories of migration and population growth indicated that patterns of HCV transmission differ among countries and viral subtypes.

Brazil↗

PubMed2004

Unifying the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of pathogens.

A key priority for infectious disease research is to clarify how pathogen genetic variation, modulated by host immunity, transmission bottlenecks, and epidemic dynamics, determines the wide variety of pathogen phylogenies observed at scales that range from individual host to population. We call the melding of immunodynamics, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology required to achieve this synthesis pathogen "phylodynamics." We introduce a phylodynamic framework for the dissection of dynamic forces that determine the diversity of epidemiological and phylogenetic patterns observed in RNA viruses of vertebrates. A central pillar of this model is the Evolutionary Infectivity Profile, which captures the relationship between immune selection and pathogen transmission.

Adaptation, Physiological↗