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Oliver G Pybus

Publications and source records attributed to Oliver G Pybus.

30 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
PubMed2004

High-resolution phylogenetic analysis of hepatitis C virus adaptation and its relationship to disease progression.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) persists in the majority of those infected despite host immune responses. Evidence has accrued that selectively fixed mutations in the envelope genes (E1 and E2) are associated with viral persistence, particularly those that occur within the first hypervariable region of E2 (HVR1). However, the individual amino acid residues under selection have not been identified, nor have their selection pressures been measured, despite the importance of this information for understanding disease pathogenesis and for vaccine design. We performed a high-resolution analysis of published gene sequence data from individuals undergoing acute HCV infection, employing two phylogenetic methods to determine site-specific selection pressures. Strikingly, we found a statistically significant association between the number of sites selected and disease outcome, with the fewest selected sites in fulminant HCV cases and the greatest number of selected sites in rapid progressors, reflecting the duration and intensity of the arms race between host and virus. Moreover, sites outside the HVR1 appear to play a major role in viral evolution and pathogenesis, although there was no association between viral persistence and specific mutations in E1 and E2. Our analysis therefore allows fine dissection of immune selection pressures, which may be more diverse than previously thought. Such analyses could play a similarly informative role in studies of other persistent virus infections, such as human immunodeficiency virus.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed2004

The molecular population genetics of HIV-1 group O.

HIV-1 group O originated through cross-species transmission of SIV from chimpanzees to humans and has established a relatively low prevalence in Central Africa. Here, we infer the population genetics and epidemic history of HIV-1 group O from viral gene sequence data and evaluate the effect of variable evolutionary rates and recombination on our estimates. First, model selection tools were used to specify suitable evolutionary and coalescent models for HIV group O. Second, divergence times and population genetic parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, under both strict and relaxed molecular clock methods. Our results date the origin of the group O radiation to around 1920 (1890-1940), a time frame similar to that estimated for HIV-1 group M. However, group O infections, which remain almost wholly restricted to Cameroon, show a slower rate of exponential growth during the twentieth century, explaining their lower current prevalence. To explore the effect of recombination, the Bayesian framework is extended to incorporate multiple unlinked loci. Although recombination can bias estimates of the time to the most recent common ancestor, this effect does not appear to be important for HIV-1 group O. In addition, we show that evolutionary rate estimates for different HIV genes accurately reflect differential selective constraints along the HIV genome.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed2003

Tracing the origin and history of the HIV-2 epidemic.

In this study we date the introduction of HIV-2 into the human population and estimate the epidemic history of HIV-2 subtype A in Guinea-Bissau, the putative geographic origin of HIV-2. The evolutionary history of the simian immunodeficiency virussooty mangabey/HIV-2 lineage was reconstructed by using available database sequences with known sampling dates, and a timescale for this history was calculated by using maximum likelihood methods. The date of the most recent common ancestor of HIV-2 subtype A strains was estimated to be 1940 +/- 16 and that of B strains was estimated to be 1945 +/- 14. In addition we used coalescent theory to estimate the past population dynamics of HIV-2 subtype A in a rural population of Guinea-Bissau. Parametric and nonparametric estimates of the effective number of infections through time were obtained for an equal sample of gag, pol, and env sequences. Our estimates of the epidemic history of HIV-2 subtype A in Guinea-Bissau show a transition from constant size to rapid exponential growth around 1955-1970. Our analysis provides evidence for a zoonotic transfer of HIV-2 during the first half of the 20th century and an epidemic initiation in Guinea-Bissau that coincides with the independence war (1963-1974), suggesting that war-related changes in sociocultural patterns had a major impact on the HIV-2 epidemic.

HIV Infections↗
PubMed2003

Inference of viral evolutionary rates from molecular sequences.

The processes of mutation and nucleotide substitution contribute to the observed variability in virulence, transmission and persistence of viral pathogens. Since most viruses evolve many times faster than their human hosts, we are in the unusual position of being able to measure these processes directly by comparing viral genes that have been isolated and sequenced at different points in time. The analysis of such data requires the use of specific statistical methods that take into account the shared ancestry of the sequences and the randomness inherent in the process of nucleotide substitution. In this paper we describe the various statistical methods for estimating evolutionary rates, which can be classified into three general approaches: linear regression, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian inference. We discuss the advantages and shortcomings of each approach and illustrate their use through the analysis of two example viruses; human immunodeficiency virus type 1 and dengue virus serotype 4. Reliable estimates of viral substitution rates have many important applications in population genetics and phylogenetics, including dating evolutionary events and divergence times, estimating demographic parameters such as population size and generation time, and investigating the effect of natural selection on molecular evolution.

Base Sequence↗
PubMed2003

Comparative population dynamics of mosquito-borne flaviviruses.

Among the members of the genus Flavivirus are several important human pathogens, including the dengue (DEN) and Japanese encephalitis (JE) viruses. From the analysis of gene sequence data of samples of these virus populations it is possible to infer phylogenetic relationships, which in turn can yield important epidemiological information, including their demographic history in humans. In this study, we use a recently developed method, based on coalescent theory, to infer the population dynamics of a variety of mosquito-borne flaviviruses. Our study involves the testing of alternative hypotheses, the estimation of confidence intervals around demographic model parameter values, and the placing of the maximum likelihood (ML) demographic model into a "real time" epidemiological history. We reveal that all the Flavivirus populations studied are growing at an exponential rate, with the rates of population growth of dengue virus serotypes 2 and 3 increasing rapidly in the recent past, and that of Japanese encephalitis virus changing from constant population size to exponential growth within the last century. We therefore demonstrate that the use of these coalescent methods may be extremely valuable in monitoring responses to interventions such as vaccination or vector control.

Arboviruses↗
PubMed2003

Phylogenetic analysis of hepatitis C virus isolates indicates a unique pattern of endemic infection in Cameroon.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a blood-borne pathogen that poses a significant threat to public health worldwide. The genetic diversity and distribution of HCV genotypes in non-Western countries, particularly subSaharan Africa, is poorly documented. This study reports a phylogenetic analysis of core and NS5B gene sequences of 37 HCV strains sampled in Cameroon. A high level of genetic diversity of both genotypes 1 and 4 was found, indicating a unique pattern of long-term HCV infection that has not been observed elsewhere. These results lead to the hypothesis that these HCV genotypes originated and diversified in west Central Africa before spreading to other regions.

Adult↗
PubMed2003

U.S. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 epidemic: date of origin, population history, and characterization of early strains.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 subtype B sequences (whole envelope and the p17 region of gag) were obtained from peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples collected in 1981 from seven HIV-infected U.S. individuals and in 1982 from one infected Canadian resident. Phylogenetic and nucleotide distance analyses were performed by using database sequences representing North American strains collected from 1978 to 1995. The estimated phylogeny was starlike, with early strains represented on different lineages. When sequences were grouped by years of collection, nucleotide distance comparisons demonstrated an increase in diversity over time and indicated that contemporary strains are more closely related to early epidemic strains than to each other. Using a recently developed likelihood ratio reduction procedure, the date of origin of the U.S. epidemic was estimated to be 1968 +/- 1.4 years. A coalescent approach was also used to estimate the population history of the U.S. subtype B epidemic. Our analyses provide new information that implies an exponential growth rate from the beginning of the U.S. HIV epidemic. The dating results suggest a U.S. introduction date (or date of divergence from the most recent common ancestor) that precedes the date of the earliest known AIDS cases in the late 1970s. Furthermore, the estimated epidemic growth curve shows a period of exponential growth that preceded most of the early documented cases and also indicates a leveling of prevalence rates in the recent past.

Disease Outbreaks↗
PubMed2002

Rates of molecular evolution in RNA viruses: a quantitative phylogenetic analysis.

The study of rates of nucleotide substitution in RNA viruses is central to our understanding of their evolution. Herein we report a comprehensive analysis of substitution rates in 50 RNA viruses using a recently developed maximum likelihood phylogenetic method. This analysis revealed a significant relationship between genetic divergence and isolation time for an extensive array of RNA viruses, although more rate variation was usually present among lineages than would be expected under the constraints of a molecular clock. Despite the lack of a molecular clock, the range of statistically significant variation in overall substitution rates was surprisingly narrow for those viruses where a significant relationship between genetic divergence and time was found, as was the case when synonymous sites were considered alone, where the molecular clock was rejected less frequently. An analysis of the ecological and genetic factors that might explain this rate variation revealed some evidence of significantly lower substitution rates in vector-borne viruses, as well as a weak correlation between rate and genome length. Finally, a simulation study revealed that our maximum likelihood estimates of substitution rates are valid, even if the molecular clock is rejected, provided that sufficiently large data sets are analyzed.

Amino Acid Substitution↗
PubMed2002

Increased positive selection pressure in persistent (SSPE) versus acute measles virus infections.

We compared the extent of positive selection acting on acute and persistent strains of measles virus (MV). Far stronger positive selection was found in the fusion (F) and haemagglutinin (H) genes from subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) compared to acute MV cases. Most of the positively selected sites identified in these surface glycoprotein genes from SSPE cases correspond to structural, functional or antigenic areas, and could not be explained by the effects of cell passaging. The correlations between selected sites and functional studies of MV are discussed in detail with reference to the maintenance of persistent infection. No positive selection was found in the matrix (M) gene from acute cases of MV and the effects of including hypermutated SSPE M gene sequences in phylogenetic inference were also explored. Finally, using H gene data, we estimated the rate of molecular evolution for SSPE strains as 3.4 x 10(-4) substitutions/site/year, which is similar to previous estimates obtained for acute strains.

Evolution, Molecular↗
PubMedDate not supplied

HIV evolutionary dynamics within and among hosts.

The HIV evolutionary processes continuously unfold, leaving a measurable footprint in viral gene sequences. A variety of statistical models and inference techniques have been developed to reconstruct the HIV evolutionary history and to investigate the population genetic processes that shape viral diversity. Remarkably different population genetic forces are at work within and among hosts. Population-level HIV phylogenies are mainly shaped by selectively neutral epidemiologic processes, implying that genealogy-based population genetic inference can be useful to study the HIV epidemic history. Such evolutionary analyses have shed light on the origins of HIV, and on the epidemic spread of viral variants in different geographic locations and in different populations. The HIV genealogies reconstructed from within-host sequences indicate the action of selection pressure. In addition, recombination has a significant impact on HIV genetic diversity. Accurately quantifying both the adaptation rate and the population recombination rate of HIV will contribute to a better understanding of immune escape and drug resistance. Characterizing the impact of HIV transmission on viral genetic diversity will be a key factor in reconciling the different population genetic processes within and among hosts.

Adaptation, Biological↗