PubMed · 10691541
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R May. 2000-01-28. Perspectives: epidemiology. Simple rules with complex dynamics.. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.287.5453.601
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Studies from Denmark and the USA have reported a strong correlation between the seasonal pattern for stillbirths and the seasonal birth pattern for people who develop schizophrenia. It has been suggested that the correlation could be caused by a common seasonal factor (e. g. intra-uterine infections during the third trimester of pregnancy), which produces death in some fetuses and nonfatal brain changes in others, changes that are manifested in later life as schizophrenia. The aims of our study were (i) to assess the seasonal patterns for stillbirths and for pre-schizophrenic births in The Netherlands and (ii) to examine their relationship. The Dutch psychiatric registry provided data on all Dutch-born subjects who had been hospitalized at least once with a diagnosis of schizophrenia in the period 1970-1994. We selected data on patients born in the period 1926-1970 (n=29891). The government provided monthly numbers of live births and stillbirths in the latter period. Seasonality of birth was examined using Poisson regression analysis. The risk of an admission for schizophrenia was highest for people born in the months of May and June and lowest for those born in August and September. When the risk for subjects born in June was compared with the risk for subjects born in September, the Relative Risk was 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07 to 1.22]. The seasonal pattern of stillbirths was different, in that it showed a peak in the month of January. The low, however, as in schizophrenia, occurred in the months of August and September. The two seasonal patterns were found to be weakly correlated: Spearman's rank correlation coefficient rho=0.41 (95% CI: -0.22 to 0.80). This was the largest European study on birth seasonality in schizophrenia. The hypothesis that a common factor is responsible for a seasonal excess of stillbirths and for a seasonal birth excess of people who develop schizophrenia was not supported. The possibility remains, however, that a common factor explains seasonal (birth rate) deficits in these disorders.
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