PubMed Health⌕ Search
Home/Archive/PubMed

PubMed · 10985225

Estimating transition probabilities from aggregate samples plus partial transition data.

D L Hawkins·C P Han
View original source ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Longitudinal studies often collect only aggregate data, which allows only inefficient transition probability estimates. Barring enormous aggregate samples, improving the efficiency of transition probability estimates seems to be impossible without additional partial-transition data. This paper discusses several sampling plans that collect data of both types, as well as a methodology that combines them into efficient estimates of transition probabilities. The method handles both fixed and time-dependent categorical covariates and requires no assumptions (e.g., time homogeneity, Markov) about the population evolution.

Explore related subjects

Acquired Immunodeficiency SyndromeBiometryHIV InfectionsHealth Knowledge, Attitudes, PracticeHumansLongitudinal StudiesModels, StatisticalMulticenter Studies as TopicProbabilityResearch DesignSample SizeSubstance Abuse, IntravenousJournal Article

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

D L Hawkins, C P Han. 2000. Estimating transition probabilities from aggregate samples plus partial transition data.. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0006-341x.2000.00848.x

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related citations

PubMed2001

A simian human immunodeficiency virus with a nonfunctional Vpu (deltavpuSHIV(KU-1bMC33)) isolated from a macaque with neuroAIDS has selected for mutations in env and nef that contributed to its pathogenic phenotype.

Previous studies have shown that passage of nonpathogenic SHIV-4 through a series of macaques results in the selection of variants of the virus that are capable of causing rapid subtotal loss of CD4(+) T cells and AIDS within 6-8 months following inoculation into pig-tailed macaques. Using a pathogenic variant of SHIV-4 known as SHIV(KU-1bMC33), we reported that a mutant of this virus with the majority of the vpu deleted was still capable of causing profound CD4(+) T cell loss and neuroAIDS in pig-tailed macaques (McCormick-Davis et al., 2000, Virology 272, 112-116). In this study, we have analyzed the tissue-specific changes in the env and nef in one macaque that developed neuroAIDS (macaque 50 O) and in three macaques that developed only a moderate or no significant loss of CD4(+) T cells and no neurological disease (macaques 50 Y, 20220, 20228) following inoculation with DeltavpuSHIV(KU-1bMC33). Sequence analysis of the gp120 region of env isolated from lymphoid tissues (lymph node and spleen) of macaques 50 Y, 20220, and 20228 revealed no consensus amino acid substitutions. In contrast, analysis of the gp120 sequences isolated from lymphoid and CNS tissues (parietal cortex, basal ganglia, and pons) of macaque 50 O revealed numerous amino acid substitutions. The significance of the amino acid substitutions in gp120 was supported by neutralization assays which showed that the virus isolated from the lymph node of macaque 50 O was neutralization resistant compared to the parental SHIV(KU-1bMC33). Analysis of changes in the nef gene from macaque 50 O revealed in-frame deletions in Nef that ranged from 4 to 13 amino acids in length, whereas the nef genes isolated from the other three macaques revealed no deletions or consensus amino acid substitutions. Inoculation of the virus isolated from the lymph node of the macaque which developed neuroAIDS, SHIV(50OLNV), into four pig-tailed macaques resulted in a severe loss of the circulating CD4(+) T cells within 2 weeks postinoculation, which was maintained for up to 20 weeks postinoculation, confirming that this virus had indeed become more pathogenic in pig-tailed macaques. Taken together, these observations suggest that DeltavpuSHIV(KU-1bMC33) has a low pathogenic phenotype in macaques but that individual pig-tailed macaques can select for additional mutations within the Env and Nef which can compensate for the lack of an intact Vpu and ultimately increase its pathogenicity.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2001

Characterization of less pathogenic infectious molecular clones derived from acute-pathogenic SHIV-89.6p stock virus.

For a better understanding of the acute pathogenicity of SHIV-89.6P stock virus, which induces prominent CD4 cell loss within a month after inoculation in monkeys, we have constructed four infectious molecular clones (cl 18, cl 64, cl 69, and cl 71). Cl 64, cl 69, and cl 71, like the parental virus, showed a high in vitro replication ability and a pathogenic-like effect (CD4 downmodulation) in a monkey CD4(+) cell line, whereas cl 18 showed a lower replication ability and could not downmodulate CD4. Cl 64, which has characteristics similar to those of the parental virus in vitro, was inoculated into four rhesus monkeys. All monkeys showed a plasma viral load similar to that of the parental virus with a peak at 2 weeks after inoculation. However, the viral load gradually decreased and the virus failed to cause an AIDS-like disease in infected monkeys, but it induced a strong antiviral antibody response. These results demonstrate the polyclonal nature of the parental SHIV-89.6P virus stock and demonstrate that cl 64, aside from its high replicability, may differ qualitatively from the parental virus.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗