A resource utilization projection study of EUS.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: EUS has emerged as standard practice with respect to the diagnosis and staging of GI malignancies. Whether currently available resources are sufficient to meet the potential need for EUS is uncertain. This study examines the hypothetical demand for EUS in the United States. METHODS: EUS cases performed at 3 centers with well-established expertise in EUS in 1997 were retrospectively reviewed and trends were extrapolated to national cancer statistics. Indications for EUS fell into 3 categories: (1) diagnosis/staging of esophageal, gastric, pancreatic, or rectal cancers (established indications); (2) suspected GI malignancy (obligate "rule out"); and (3) "other" (emerging indications). Hypothetical total numbers of cases in which EUS could be performed in the United States were calculated taking into consideration the expected number of GI malignancies for which EUS would be appropriate (based on cancer statistics for 2000), the fraction unresectable by CT, the fraction of elderly nonsurgical candidates, proportionate "rule out" cases, as well as "other" emerging indications. RESULTS: The calculated hypothetical number of cases (United States) in which EUS would be indicated is 79,568 per year (10,287 esophagus, 10,666 stomach, 23,069 pancreas, and 35,546 rectal). If "other" indications remained constant at 12%, there would potentially be 89,116 EUS procedures performed per year, with a conservative estimate of 79,572 per year. CONCLUSIONS: This model suggests that currently available EUS resources are not sufficient to meet hypothetical demand. Future considerations include the number of endoscopy units in which EUS is performed, the capacity of individual units, and the implications for training programs in the United States.