PubMed · 12091217
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Martin Voracek, Maryanne L Fisher, Gernot Sonneck. 2002. Solar eclipse and suicide.. https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.ajp.159.7.1247-a
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Measures of the predictive accuracy of regression models quantify the extent to which covariates determine an individual outcome. Explained variation measures the relative gains in predictive accuracy when prediction based on covariates replaces unconditional prediction. A unified concept of predictive accuracy and explained variation based on the absolute prediction error is presented for models with continuous, binary, polytomous and survival outcomes. The measures are given both in a model-based formulation and in a formulation directly contrasting observed and expected outcomes. Various aspects of application are demonstrated by examples from three forms of regression models. It is emphasized that the likely degree of absolute or relative predictive accuracy often is low even if there are highly significant and relatively strong covariates.
The Austrian Professor Erich Ruttin was appointed as the director of the Ear, Nose and Throat Department of Istanbul University at the beginning of September 1934. Leaving behind the directorship of the Ear, Nose and Throat Clinic of Rudolfspital in Wien, Ruttin no doubt tried to leave Austria due to the beginning of anti-semitic influences of the Nazi regime in Germany, which had lead him to sign a contract with the Istanbul University for a period of ten years. It is remarkable that despite this contract he stayed only one year in Turkey. This article presents his contributions in the field of otorhinolaryngology during his short stay in Turkey and explains the background of his early departure.
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