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PubMed · 12155398

An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts.

S K Smith·M Shahidullah
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Abstract

"In this article we evaluate the accuracy and bias of projections of total population and population by age group for census tracts in three counties in Florida. We use [U.S. census] data from 1970 and 1980 and several simple extrapolation techniques to produce projections for 1990; we then compare these projections with 1990 census counts and evaluate the differences. For the total sample, we find mean absolute errors of 17%-20% for the three most accurate techniques for projecting total population and find no indication of overall bias. For individual age groups, mean absolute errors range from 20%-29%." This is a revised version of a paper presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.

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Age DistributionAge FactorsAmericasBiasDemographyDeveloped CountriesEvaluation Studies as TopicFloridaForecastingGeographyMethodsNorth AmericaPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsResearch DesignStatistics as TopicUnited StatesAdministrative DistrictsComparative StudiesCountiesDemographic FactorsError SourcesEstimation TechnicsEvaluationGeographic FactorsMeasurementMethodological StudiesNorthern AmericaPopulation ForecastPopulation ProjectionStudiesComparative StudyJournal Article

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S K Smith, M Shahidullah. 1995. An evaluation of population projection errors for census tracts.. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1995.10476489

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