Projecting household dynamics: a scenario-based microsimulation approach.

Abstract

2 methods are brought together to estimate and analyze future household structure. Application of a scenario method results in the construction of differing context scenarios. These context scenarios function as alternative societal environments of the future household system. Given these context scenarios and, tentatively derived, general hypotheses relating relevant elements of the context scenarios and household processes, future input parameters of the household model are postulated. Subsequently, microsimulation is used to calculate the future household structure. Emphasis in the article is on methodology, rather than on substantive issues which have a mainly illustrative function.