A strategy for reducing numbers? Response.

Abstract

I am not particularly knowledgeable on the subject-matter of this article; but would like to make brief comments from the broad economic point of view. The concept of a demographic 'trap' is not sound. For one thing, this concept completely ignores the possibility of 'trade' in food by implicitly assuming that the capacity of a community to support its population depends on its own output of food through appropriate economic policies. There were many predictions of disastrous famines in India in the early 70s on the basis of considerations such as those advanced by Dr Ding. Amartya Sen has argued, quite plausibly, that famines occur because of maldistribution of food and lack of adequate 'safety nets' rather than a decline in total food output. Sen is referred to at 1 place in the article; but somewhat out of context. The conclusion that if the birth rate does not fall, the death rate should also not be allowed to fall is repugnant. Look at the countries of Latin America; population growth is high, but there is no 'entrapment'. The so called 'trap' can, of course, occur because of failure of economic and social policies and international economic policies. However, there is nothing inevitable about it (at any given rate of population growth). The author's plea for greater information and public education in respect of demographic trends and consequences is valid. There is also an urgent need for a new thrust in family planning programs on wider economic and social grounds. However, this case is quite independent of the 'entrapment' theory.