PubMed · 15328667
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Jay M Portnoy. 2004. What do pollen counts mean?. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1081-1206(10)61460-3
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Chloroform (CHCl3) is a short-lived ozone-depleting substance not currently regulated under the Montreal Protocol. Due to the unique meteorological conditions in East Asia, CHCl3 emitted in this region has a greater potential to reach the stratosphere and contribute to ozone depletion. As an essential component of national CHCl3 emissions, southeastern China has attracted increasing attention. However, long-term observational data in this region remain relatively scarce, with no updates since 2020. In this study, we continuously measured atmospheric CHCl3 concentrations at a remote monitoring station in southeastern China from 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2025. Frequent concentration enhancements were observed during the monitoring period, with mixing ratios ranging from 9.3 to 134.1 ppt and an average value of 36.8 ± 19.7 ppt. Back-trajectory analysis indicated that air masses associated with elevated CHCl3 levels primarily originated from coastal industrial provinces in eastern China. Using the Potential Source Contribution Function and Concentration Weighted Trajectory methods, we identified the Yangtze River Delta (Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang Provinces) and Jiangxi Province as dominant source regions. Emissions of CHCl3 in southeastern China were estimated using the Tracer Ratio Method to be approximately 30.1 ± 5.3 Gg/yr from 2023-06-01 to 2025-05-31, indicating overall stability relative to earlier estimates and no apparent upward trend. These findings provide updated insights into the current status of CHCl3 emissions in southeastern China and highlight the need for continued monitoring and emission assessment of CHCl3 in East Asia, given its unregulated status and implications for ozone layer recovery.
In this paper we consider longitudinal studies in which the outcome to be measured over time is binary, and the covariates of interest are categorical. In longitudinal studies it is common for the outcomes and any time-varying covariates to be missing due to missed study visits, resulting in non-monotone patterns of missingness. Moreover, the reasons for missed visits may be related to the specific values of the response and/or covariates that should have been obtained, i.e. missingness is non-ignorable. With non-monotone non-ignorable missing response and covariate data, a full likelihood approach is quite complicated, and maximum likelihood estimation can be computationally prohibitive when there are many occasions of follow-up. Furthermore, the full likelihood must be correctly specified to obtain consistent parameter estimates. We propose a pseudo-likelihood method for jointly estimating the covariate effects on the marginal probabilities of the outcomes and the parameters of the missing data mechanism. The pseudo-likelihood requires specification of the marginal distributions of the missingness indicator, outcome, and possibly missing covariates at each occasions, but avoids making assumptions about the joint distribution of the data at two or more occasions. Thus, the proposed method can be considered semi-parametric. The proposed method is an extension of the pseudo-likelihood approach in Troxel et al. to handle binary responses and possibly missing time-varying covariates. The method is illustrated using data from the Six Cities study, a longitudinal study of the health effects of air pollution.
Solar ultraviolet radiation creates an ozone layer in the atmosphere which in turn completely absorbs the most energetic fraction of this radiation. This process both warms the air, creating the stratosphere between 15 and 50 km altitude, and protects the biological activities at the Earth's surface from this damaging radiation. In the last half-century, the chemical mechanisms operating within the ozone layer have been shown to include very efficient catalytic chain reactions involving the chemical species HO, HO2, NO, NO2, Cl and ClO. The NOX and ClOX chains involve the emission at Earth's surface of stable molecules in very low concentration (N2O, CCl2F2, CCl3F, etc.) which wander in the atmosphere for as long as a century before absorbing ultraviolet radiation and decomposing to create NO and Cl in the middle of the stratospheric ozone layer. The growing emissions of synthetic chlorofluorocarbon molecules cause a significant diminution in the ozone content of the stratosphere, with the result that more solar ultraviolet-B radiation (290-320 nm wavelength) reaches the surface. This ozone loss occurs in the temperate zone latitudes in all seasons, and especially drastically since the early 1980s in the south polar springtime-the 'Antarctic ozone hole'. The chemical reactions causing this ozone depletion are primarily based on atomic Cl and ClO, the product of its reaction with ozone. The further manufacture of chlorofluorocarbons has been banned by the 1992 revisions of the 1987 Montreal Protocol of the United Nations. Atmospheric measurements have confirmed that the Protocol has been very successful in reducing further emissions of these molecules. Recovery of the stratosphere to the ozone conditions of the 1950s will occur slowly over the rest of the twenty-first century because of the long lifetime of the precursor molecules.