PubMed · 15534289
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2004-11-09. Global failures.. https://doi.org/10.1503/cmaj.1041635
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Definitions and methods for cost of illness studies are explained: costs, direct costs, indirect costs, intangible costs, the human capital method and the willingness to pay approach. Devaluing the long-term health benefits from prevention by constant discount rates is questioned. The development and the state of the art of cost of illness studies at a national level in Germany are discussed. As an example the newly developed cost of illness study of the Federal Statistical Office with direct and indirect costs of circulatory diseases is presented. Reasons for the benefit of cost of illness studies for decision making are given in the context of costs of illness and aging.
As observations in the past do not necessarily hold into the future, predicting future cancer occurrence is fraught with uncertainty. Nevertheless, predictions can aid health planners in allocating resources and allow scientists to explore the consequence of interventions aimed at reducing the impact of cancer. Simple statistical models have been refined over the past few decades and often provide reasonable predictions when applied to recent trends. Intrinsic to their interpretation, however, is an understanding of the forces that drive time trends. We explain how and why cancer predictions are made, with examples to illustrate the concepts in practice.
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