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Quantitative risk modelling for new pharmaceutical compounds.

Zhengru Tang·Mark J Taylor·Paulo Lisboa·Mark Dyas
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Abstract

The process of discovering and developing new drugs is long, costly and risk-laden. Faced with a wealth of newly discovered compounds, industrial scientists need to target resources carefully to discern the key attributes of a drug candidate and to make informed decisions. Here, we describe a quantitative approach to modelling the risk associated with drug development as a tool for scenario analysis concerning the probability of success of a compound as a potential pharmaceutical agent. We bring together the three strands of manufacture, clinical effectiveness and financial returns. This approach involves the application of a Bayesian Network. A simulation model is demonstrated with an implementation in MS Excel using the modelling engine Crystal Ball.

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AlgorithmsBayes TheoremComputer SimulationDrug DesignDrug EvaluationDrug Evaluation, PreclinicalDrug IndustryMonte Carlo MethodProbabilityRisk AssessmentJournal ArticleReview

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Zhengru Tang, Mark J Taylor, Paulo Lisboa, Mark Dyas. 2005-11-15. Quantitative risk modelling for new pharmaceutical compounds.. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1359-6446(05)03606-8

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