PubMed · 3798397
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E A Murphy, E M Rosell, M I Rosell. 1986. Deduction, inference and illation.. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00539853
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Six analysts estimated verbally and numerically the chances that specific events will occur. Sixty decision makers used each type of estimate to make binary-choice decisions and to bid for lotteries based on the events. The usual reversal of preference between choice and bidding procedures was found in the numerical condition, but the frequency of preference reversals was significantly reduced in the verbal condition. This reduction occurred because risk aversion was reduced in choice when verbal estimates were given, whereas bidding was unaffected by presentation mode. The pattern of results was predicted by and supports the hypothesis that the relative importance given to the dimensions of a prospect depends on the form in which the information is displayed.
In an earlier paper the Bayesian model for everyday diagnostics of disease in the particular patient and the Bayesian decision model was criticized. Here a Popperian model is applied and its presumptions and consequences are investigated. Abandoning calculable probabilities as Popper suggests in science, and substituting them with degrees of corroboration, is realistic.
Utilities and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) are reviewed, with particular focus on their use in technology assessment. This article provides a broad overview and perspective on these two techniques and their interrelationship, with reference to other sources for details of implementation. The historical development, assumptions, strengths/weaknesses, and applications of each are summarized. Utilities are specifically designed for individual decision-making under uncertainty, but, with additional assumptions, utilities can be aggregated across individuals to provide a group utility function. QALYs are designed to aggregate in a single summary measure the total health improvement for a group of individuals, capturing improvements from impacts on both quantity of life and quality of life--with quality of life broadly defined. Utilities can be used as the quality-adjustment weights for QALYs; they are particularly appropriate for that purpose, and this combination provides a powerful and highly useful variation on cost-effectiveness analysis known as cost-utility analysis.