PubMed · 6047834
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R S Illingworth. 1967-10-07. Fallacies in four fevers.. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.4.5570.41
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The question addressed is whether or not childhood epidemics such as measles and chickenpox are characterized by low-dimensional chaos. We propose a new method for the detection and extraction of hidden periodic components embedded in an irregular cyclical series, and study the characterization of the epidemiological series in terms of the characteristic features or periodicity attributes of the extracted components. It is shown that the measles series possesses two periodic components each having a period of one year. Both the periodic components have time-varying pattern, and the process is nonlinear and deterministic; there is no evidence of strong chaoticity in the measles dynamics. The chickenpox series has one seasonal component with stable pattern, and the process is deterministic but linear, and hence non-chaotic. We also propose surrogate generators based on null hypotheses relating to the variability of the periodicity attributes to analyse the dynamics in the epidemic series. The process dynamics is also studied using seasonally forced SEIR epidemic model, and the characterization performance of the proposed schemes is assessed.
Complications in two varicella zoster virus (VZV) vaccinated children with leukemia in remission are reported. Case I presented with varicella on day 30 after vaccination, with a relapse on day 49 and development of zoster on day 70. VZV was detected in vesicles by PCR on days 49 and 70. Case II presented with varicella on day 32 after vaccination, and VZV was detected in vesicles and nasal secretion. The manifestations were mild and responded to treatment. PCR methods were directed toward the R5 and PS regions. The virus from the two children was unambiguously identified as the Oka vaccine strain. The majority of Danish field strains had only one copy of the 112 basepair repeat element in the R5 region, but two, four and presumably higher copy numbers were also seen. All Danish field strains had the Pst1 cleavage site in the PS region.
Varicella (chickenpox) is a common, highly infectious, vaccine-preventable disease. Before 1995, an estimated 4 million cases of varicella occurred each year in the United States, approximately 100 patients died, and approximately 10,000 persons were hospitalized because of varicella and related complications. Approximately 95% of cases, 66% of hospitalizations, and 45% of the varicella-related deaths occurred among persons aged <20 years (CDC, unpublished data, 1998). In 1972, varicella became nationally notifiable in the United States; subsequently, 46 states and the District of Columbia (DC) provided weekly reports to CDC's National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (NNDSS). In 1981, varicella was deleted from the weekly morbidity report, and in 1982, states were encouraged to report varicella to NNDSS annually. In 1995, a live, attenuated varicella vaccine was licensed in the United States for routine use in children. This report describes changes in the annual reported incidence of varicella from 1972 to 1997 and discusses the need for increased surveillance with the availability of a vaccine.