PubMed · 8098433
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R M Anderson. 1993-05-15. AIDS predictions.. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8098433/
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Studies of circulating T (CD3(+)) lymphocytes have shown that on a population basis T-cell numbers remain stable for many years after HIV-1 infection (blind T-cell homeostasis), but decline rapidly beginning approximately 1.5-2.5 years before the onset of clinical AIDS. We derived a general method for defining the loss of homeostasis on the individual level and for determining the prevalence of homeostasis loss according to HIV status and the occurrence of AIDS in more than 5,000 men enrolled in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study. We used a segmented regression model for log10 CD3(+) cell counts that included separate T-cell trajectories before and after a time (the T-cell inflection point) where the loss of T-cell homeostasis was most likely to have occurred. The average slope of CD3(+) lymphocyte counts before the inflection point was close to zero for HIV- and HIV+ men, consistent with blind T-cell homeostasis. After the inflection point, the HIV+ individuals who developed AIDS generally showed a dramatic decline in CD3(+) cell counts relative to HIV- men and HIV+ men not developing AIDS. A CD3(+) cell decline of greater than 10 percent per year was present in 77% of HIV+ men developing AIDS but in only 23% of HIV+ men with no onset of AIDS. Our findings at the individual level support the blind T-cell homeostasis hypothesis and provide strong evidence that the loss of homeostasis is an important mechanism in the pathogenesis of the severe immunodeficiency that characterizes the late stages of HIV infection.
A new simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) stock (SHIV 89.6-PD), derived from plasma of a rhesus macaque used for in vivo serial passage of virulence-attenuated SHIV 89.6, produces systemic infection after intravenous, intravaginal, or intrarectal inoculation of rhesus macaques. Infection with this virus results in high levels of viral antigen in plasma, a precipitous decline in CD4+ T-cell counts, and a disease syndrome that is characteristic of AIDS. Rapid progression to disease was associated with failure to seroconvert to viral antigens, whereas longer survival was associated with production of antiviral antibodies. In intravenously inoculated animals, peak antigenemia occurred at 7 days postinjection (PI) and severe CD4+ depletion occurred at 14 days PI. In mucosally infected animals, peak antigenemia occurred at 14 days PI and severe CD4+ depletion was not evident until 21 days PI. The 1-week delay in both viral antigenemia and CD4+ T-cell decline in mucosally infected animals is consistent with the hypothesis that, following vaginal inoculation, virus dissemination proceeds in a stepwise manner from the mucosal surface to the draining lymph nodes and subsequently to the bloodstream. This animal model can be used to test the ability of HIV-1 envelope-based vaccines to prevent infection or disease after challenge by the three major routes of HIV transmission.
In 26 AIDS patients treated for toxoplasmic encephalitis, the inhibitory effect on Toxoxplasma growth of sequential sera taken before and after initiation of therapy was determined using a culture-based immunoassay and compared with pyrimethamine blood levels. A marked inhibition of Toxoplasma growth was observed 1 day after initiation of therapy with pyrimethamine plus sulfadiazine and was maintained between 67% and 93% throughout the 15-day follow-up period. The degree of inhibition was not correlated to pyrimethamine blood levels and seemed highly potentiated when sulfadiazine rather than macrolides was given in combination with pyrimethamine.