Establishing protective long term measures after severe nuclear accidents using multiple criteria.

Abstract

This paper proposes a methodology supporting decisions on protective measures following severe nuclear accidents and demonstrates its use. A multicriteria decision analysis approach is adopted where value tradeoffs are postponed until the very last stage of the decision process. All feasible solutions are implicitly considered and evaluated in the chosen criteria. Technically inferior solutions are excluded. Only the non-dominated or efficient solutions forming the "efficient frontier" are retained and presented to the decision makers. Implementation of inefficient solutions is in this way avoided. A choice among the efficient solutions, although it implies value tradeoffs among the multiple criteria, avoids the direct and apriori assessment of preferences. An interactive computer package has been developed with which the decision maker can choose a point on the efficient frontier in the consequence space and immediately see the corresponding alternative in the decision space. The methodology is demonstrated through an application on the choice among possible protective measures in contaminated areas of the former USSR after the Chernobyl accident using as criteria the collective effective life-time dose received by the population and the cost associated with each possible decision.