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At least 253 records · Page 14Linked to original sources

PubMed1989

[Impact of social and health factors in the forecast of work activity of female workers of pre-retirement and retirement age receiving social benefits].

On the basis of a complex social and hygienic study along with the use of modern mathematical statistical methods the role of working and living conditions and health status of female workers having social benefits at chemical fibre production plants was demonstrated within the forecast of their labour activity when retired. Social factors, such as material remuneration and working conditions, were of primary importance in labour forecast for female workers before their retirement. Favourable working conditions and average material security level could ameliorate the labour forecast more than by 4 times.

Aged↗

PubMed1977

[Grass pollen in Munich air. Preparations for a forecast (author's transl)].

To forecast pollen concentrations of the air of a particular place the following data of the area in question should be known: The basic grass pollen content of the air from volumetric measurements made during several years and its mean seasonal changes; the mean daily grass pollen content of 1 m3 of air and its changes, especially at the beginning of the main grass pollen season; the influence of temperature, humidity, precipitation and wind speed on the grass pollen content; weather forecast of the day for which the pollen forecast is to be made and the grass pollen content of the previous day; the composition of the grass flora in the surroundings and the state of flowering of the main components of the grass flora. These data for the city of Munich are presented and discussed. In addition the grass pollen content in the air during the summers of 1975 and 1976 is compared with allergic complaints of 96 and 45 persons respectively.

Air Movements↗

PubMed1978

Food production relationships between entrée combinations and forecasted demand.

Macro elements and values for associated Time Measurement Units were applied to three classifications of entrées to synthesize production time for 100, 300, and 500 portions. Average handling and process time for each classification and time per portion were calculated. Data revealed that roast and single-item entrées required greater average handling time than combination entrées, because more individual handling of portions was required as forecasted demand increased. Process time for combination and single-item entrées increased as forecasted demand increased. The time for the single-item classification doubled for 300 and 500 portions, because oven capacity was exceeded. Production time data were applied to six combinations (menu mixes) and quantity levels of entrée classifications to determine production feasibility in a simulated foodservice system. Production problems were encountered in five of the six menu mixes because of system constraints. This study indicated that total production time estimates would be useful to foodservice managers when planning a menu mix, scheduling production personnel, and forecasting labor costs.

Food Handling↗

PubMed1984

Forecasting first births.

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.

Black or African American↗

PubMed1987

Identification of segmentation criteria for the improvement of population forecasts.

"It is often stated that the single most important influence on the quality of forecasts of behaviour is the set of predetermined exogenous variables (typically sociodemographic) that categorise the population. These variables are used to carry the sampled population into the future as a representation of the composition of future populations.... It is argued that a desired segmentation set should be linked to preference stability, and that a suitable procedure for establishing such a link is via preference data derived from a controlled experimental design. From the empirical study it is illustrated how preference data can be combined with socioeconomic data to seek out the role of the 'current' set and the 'new' set of socioeconomic variables in a particular forecasting context. Since the selection of variables must be application specific, the main emphasis of this paper is on the methodology. The reported empirical findings [for Australia] are of illustrative use only."

Australia↗

PubMed1985

Forecasting interstate migration with limited data: a demographic-economic approach.

"The limitations of available migration data preclude a time-series approach of modeling interstate migration [in the United States]. The method presented here combines aspects of the demographic and economic approaches to forecasting migration in a manner compatible with existing data. Migration rates are modeled to change in response to changes in economic conditions. When applied to resently constructed data on migration based on income tax returns and then compared to standard demographic projections, the demographic-economic approach has a 20% lower total error in forecasting net migration by state for cohorts of labor-force age."

Americas↗

PubMed1991

From birth expectations to birth forecasts: a partial-adjustment approach.

"As women's expectations about their own future fertility tend to deviate systematically from realizations, these expectations cannot be used directly for forecasting purposes. This paper discusses a partial-adjustment approach for deriving forecasts from the expectations. The sensitivity of the results to various assumptions is examined. Empirical results obtained for the Netherlands seem promising."

Birth Rate↗

PubMed1981

An econometric model for forecasting regional population growth.

"An econometric model for forecasting net migration and natural increase is proposed and then estimated using time-series data for Texas. The model is simulated five years out-of-sample and found to be quite accurate in forecasting future population growth. It outperforms simpler prediction methods, thus indicating that explicit modeling of net migration and natural increase is superior to modeling only total population."

Americas↗

PubMed1999

Population forecasting with endogenous migration: an application to trans-Tasman migration.

"This article focuses on forecasting migration between Australia and New Zealand (trans-Tasman migration), which is largely visa-free and therefore resembles internal migration. Net trans-Tasman migration is a major component of New Zealand population change and is embedded in this article in a Bayesian or unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model, which includes foreign and domestic economic variables. When time series of net migration are available, this approach provides a useful input into forecasting population growth in the short run in the absence of major policy changes. This conclusion applies equally to interregional migration and to unrestricted international migration between economically integrated nations."

Australia↗

PubMed1989

Forecasting aggregate period-specific birth rates: the time series properties of a microdynamic neoclassical model of fertility.

"This article demonstrates the value of microdata for understanding the effect of wages on life cycle fertility dynamics. Conventional estimates of neoclassical economic fertility models obtained from linear aggregate time series regressions are widely criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted for serial correlation. Moreover, the forecasting power of these aggregative neoclassical models has been shown to be inferior when compared with conventional time series models that assign no role to wages. This article demonstrates that, when neoclassical models of fertility are estimated on microdata using methods that incorporate key demographic restrictions and when they are properly aggregated, they have considerable forecasting power." Data are from the 1981 Swedish Fertility Survey.

Birth Rate↗

PubMed1994

Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: beyond high, medium, and low.

"This article presents and implements a new method for making stochastic population forecasts that provide consistent probability intervals. We blend mathematical demography and statistical time series methods to estimate stochastic models of fertility and mortality based on U.S. data back to 1900 and then use the theory of random-matrix products to forecast various demographic measures and their associated probability intervals to the year 2065. Our expected total population sizes agree quite closely with the Census medium projections, and our 95 percent probability intervals are close to the Census high and low scenarios. But Census intervals in 2065 for ages 65+ are nearly three times as broad as ours, and for 85+ are nearly twice as broad. In contrast, our intervals for the total dependency and youth dependency ratios are more than twice as broad as theirs, and our ratio for the elderly dependency ratio is 12 times as great as theirs. These items have major implications for policy, and these contrasting indications of uncertainty clearly show the limitations of the conventional scenario-based methods."

Age Factors↗

PubMed1992

An evaluation of population forecast errors for Florida and its counties.

The authors evaluate the forecasting accuracy of population projections formulated at state and county levels for Florida. They find that "projections of Florida population made in the 1970s and 1980s had errors...of approximately 2-3 percent for 5-year horizons, 5-6 percent for 10-year horizons and 8-9 percent for 15-year horizons. County projections had errors averaging approximately 5, 10 and 15 percent for these three lengths of horizon, respectively. Based on comparisons with other studies of state and substate population projections, we believe this is a good record of forecast accuracy...."

Americas↗

PubMed1981

Demographic-economic forecasting within an activity-commodity framework: some theoretical considerations and empirical results.

"This paper presents a methodology which allows demographic and economic forecasting models to be integrated in a consistent manner. By embedding a conventional static Leontief input-output model within an activity analysis framework, a number of interesting results are obtained. First, a new series of production, income, and employment multipliers is derived which offers considerable advantages over those currently in use. Second, partitioning the framework provides fresh insights into the complex relationships between demographic and economic variables. These developments in methodology are tested in a case study of Merseyside where an operational version of the framework is applied in a forecasting context."

Developed Countries↗

PubMed1983

[Forecasting cohort fertility rates by using an exponential function].

"Population forecasts based on cross sectional data do not allow for the variations in cohort fertility. In this paper methods are developed to fit cohort fertility rates by an exponential function. Out of a number of selected functions the Weibull-function shows the best fit. For predicting cohort fertility pattern the parameter values can be derived from the forecasts of a small number of demographic statistics." (summary in ENG)

Birth Rate↗

PubMed1987

[A further test of a multivariate forecasting model for fertility].

A model developed by J. Nelissen and A. Vossen, for making short-term population projections, is first described. In this model, the fertility rate is related to the unemployment rate and the fraction of the labor force employed in agriculture. The model is then applied to Dutch data for the period 1980-1985. "The main conclusions are that the results depend heavily on the choice of the forecasting period and that the ex-post forecasts of Nelissen and Vossen's model are out-performed by univariate ARIMA-projections." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Agriculture↗

PubMed1987

Population forecasting and urban planning practice: a case study.

"The present paper is an exploration of the organisational environment that surrounds population forecasting in urban planning practice with reference to a detailed case study of one British planning authority: South Yorkshire." The emphasis is on the dialogue between those who prepare such forecasts and those who use them.

Demography↗

PubMed1993

[National household forecasts 1993].

Revised household population forecasts for the Netherlands are presented for 1993, based on recent data from the Annual Household Statistics. "According to the 1993 household forecasts the number of households will increase from 6.2 million in 1992 to 7.3 million in 2010. The main source of the increase is the rise of the number of one-person households from 1.9 million to 2.7 million. As a result the number of households will increase more strongly than population size. Whereas population size in 2010 will be 11% higher than in 1992, the number of households will rise by 17%." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Developed Countries↗

PubMed1993

Short-term forecasting of internal migration.

A new methodological approach to the forecasting of short-term trends in internal migration in the United States is introduced. "Panel-data (or longitudinal-data) models are used to represent the relationship between destination-specific out-migration and several explanatory variables. The introduction of this methodology into the migration literature is possible because of some new and improved databases developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.... Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are used to investigate the incorporation of exogenous factors as variables in the model." The exogenous factors considered include employment and unemployment, income, population size of state, and distance between states. The author concludes that "when one...includes additional parameters that are estimable in longitudinal-data models, it turns out that there is little additional information in the exogenous factors that is useful for forecasting."

Americas↗