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PubMed2026

Machine learning vs. traditional methods for predicting postoperative cardiac complications after non-cardiac surgery: a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate prediction of peri-operative cardiac complications is critical to optimise pre-operative decision-making. Traditional risk prediction scores, such as the Revised Cardiac Risk Index, show only modest discrimination. Machine learning can model complex, non-linear relationships but their predictive performance compared with traditional scores remains unclear. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and Bayesian network meta-analysis. The primary outcome was postoperative adverse cardiac events following non-cardiac surgery. Prediction models were assessed relative to the Revised Cardiac Risk Index. As many studies evaluated multiple versions of each model type, the highest performing ('best version') and lowest performing ('worst version') results were analysed. Models were ranked using the surface under the cumulative ranking curve (SUCRA). RESULTS: Thirteen studies evaluating 54 models and 927,113 patients were included. Machine learning approaches generally outperformed traditional risk scores. Automated machine learning ranked highest (SUCRA 96.6) showed the greatest improvement in the best version analysis (mean difference (MD) 0.28 (95%CrI 0.16-0.40)) and remained superior in the sensitivity analysis (MD 0.30 (95%CrI 0.14-0.45)). Gradient boosting models showed superior performance over the Revised Cardiac Risk Index across analysis (best version: MD 0.20 (95%CrI 0.14-0.26), worst version: MD 0.18 (95%CrI 0.12-0.25), SUCRA 82.4). The Gupta Perioperative Risk for Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest score outperformed the Revised Cardiac Risk Index in the best version analysis (MD 0.16 (95%CrI 0.01-0.32)). Between-study heterogeneity was low. None of the included studies externally validated their machine learning models and only six were judged to be at low risk of bias. DISCUSSION: Most machine learning models showed better discrimination than traditional risk scores, with automated machine learning and gradient boosting models ranking highest. However, study quality, calibration reporting and absence of external validation limit immediate clinical adoption. Prospective, multicentre evaluation is required before integration of these models into peri-operative practice.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Comparative Efficacy of Non-opioid Analgesic Drugs for Chronic Cancer Pain: A Bayesian Network Meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: While opioids remain the primary pharmacological intervention for cancer pain management, their clinical utility is frequently compromised by dose-limiting toxicities. This study aimed to determine the comparative efficacy, opioid-sparing potential, and clinical hierarchy of non-opioid adjuvant drug classes. The study was structured around the PICO framework to evaluate the pharmacological strategies currently utilized in multimodal clinical oncology. METHODS: A systematic search of electronic databases (PubMed, Embase, Cochrane) was conducted for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published between 2000 and 2025. The primary outcome was global analgesic efficacy (standardized mean difference [SMD]), while secondary outcomes included the opioid-sparing effect, defined as the percentage reduction in morphine equivalent daily dose (MEDD) and the incidence of treatment-emergent adverse events (Harms). A Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) was performed to rank treatments using SUCRA values. The methodological quality was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB 2.0) tool. RESULTS: Twenty-three RCTs (n = 1845) met the inclusion criteria. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) (-1.10) and anticonvulsants (-1.06) demonstrated the most robust analgesic effects. The SUCRA ranking confirmed a clear hierarchy, with the combination of anticonvulsants and antidepressants showing the highest probability of efficacy. A significant opioid-sparing effect was observed for gabapentinoids and ketamine, facilitating MEDD reduction. While serious adverse events were rare, minor harms (somnolence, dizziness) were more frequent in the most effective classes. CONCLUSION: Our NMA provides a robust evidence base for a "Clinical Tier" system, ranking adjuvants by their balance of efficacy and safety. These findings support the early integration of Tier I agents (anticonvulsants and NSAIDs) to optimize pain control and reduce opioid-related toxicities in chronic cancer pain management.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

Comparative Efficacy of Janus Kinase Inhibitors Indicated for Severe Alopecia Areata: A Bayesian Network Meta-Analysis and Matching-Adjusted Indirect Comparison.

Systemic Janus kinase inhibitors (JAKIs) have markedly advanced the therapeutic landscape for alopecia areata (AA). Although baricitinib and ritlecitinib are approved in the United States (US) and Europe, and deuruxolitinib in the US for severe AA, the lack of head-to-head randomized controlled trials (RCTs) limits evidence-based prescribing decisions. Moreover, prior meta-analyses excluded data on certain oral JAKIs or incorporated findings from agents and dosing regimens that were abandoned, investigational, clinically ineffective, or associated with unacceptable safety profiles. To compare the efficacy of oral JAKIs, limited to FDA, EMA, or MHRA approved drugs and doses-baricitinib (2 and 4 mg QD), ritlecitinib (50 mg QD), and deuruxolitinib (8 mg BID)-for severe AA, using advanced indirect comparison methodologies. A systematic review was performed following PRISMA 2020 guidelines (CRD420251116775). Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) synthesized data from RCTs reporting Week 24 outcomes on Severity of Alopecia Tool (SALT) ≤ 10 and SALT ≤ 20 thresholds. Multilevel network meta-regression (ML-NMR) evaluated heterogeneity and adjusted for baseline imbalances. Additionally, unanchored matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAIC) were conducted using individual patient-level data from THRIVE trials. Surface under the cumulative ranking (SUCRA) values were calculated to rank treatments. Seven RCTs (n = 4560 participants) were included. Deuruxolitinib 8 mg significantly outperformed baricitinib 2 and 4 mg on both SALT endpoints. Differences with ritlecitinib 50 mg were directionally favorable for deuruxolitinib but not statistically significant in NMA and ML-NMR models. MAICs confirmed superior odds for deuruxolitinib versus baricitinib 2 mg (OR = 71.55) and ritlecitinib (OR = 18.27) for SALT ≤ 20. SUCRA rankings also consistently favored deuruxolitinib. Among approved oral JAKIs, deuruxolitinib 8 mg shows the highest short-term efficacy for severe AA. These findings provide preliminary evidence to guide treatment decisions but should be interpreted as exploratory pending confirmation.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Identification and genetic validation of potential therapeutic targets for pulmonary hypertension through multi-omics causal inference.

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) underscores the urgent need for novel therapeutic targets. This study aimed to employ a proteome-wide Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to systematically identify circulating proteins causally associated with PH, thereby providing genetically validated candidate targets for drug development. We adopted a 2-sample MR design, integrating large-scale plasma proteomic quantitative trait loci (pQTL) data (encompassing 4148 proteins) and summary statistics from a large-scale PH genome-wide association study (2047 cases, 8301 controls). Candidate targets were screened through a multilayered analytical pipeline comprising proteomic MR, transcriptomic MR, and summary-data-based Mendelian randomization. The ultimately identified MR-Identified Causal Candidate Targets (MR-ICTs) underwent rigorous Bayesian colocalization analysis, followed by biological characterization through functional enrichment analysis, single-cell transcriptomics, and phenome-wide association studies. Through robust genetic causal inference, this study provides that circulating proteins such as LYZ, GREM2, NID1, and PF4V1 play causal roles in PH pathogenesis. These findings offer a set of rigorously genetically validated, high-priority therapeutic targets for developing novel PH treatments, specifically addressing key pathological mechanisms such as innate immunity, BMP signaling pathway dysregulation, and platelet activation. Our multi-dimensional analysis ultimately identified 6 MR-ICTs causally associated with PH. Notably, the causal associations for lysozyme C (LYZ), gremlin-2 (GREM2), nidogen-1 (NID1), and platelet factor 4 variant 1 (PF4V1) were stringently validated by Bayesian colocalization analysis (posterior probability for hypothesis 4 [PPH4], indicating a shared causal variant, > 0.99). Functional enrichment analysis revealed significant involvement of these targets in immune response and TGF-β signaling pathways. Single-cell analysis further elucidated their cell-type-specific expression, with LYZ predominantly expressed in monocytes and PF4V1 almost exclusively in platelets.

Hypertension, Pulmonary↗

PubMed2026

A Bayesian framework for multivariate differential analysis.

Differential analysis is a routine procedure in the statistical analysis toolbox across many applied fields, including quantitative proteomics, the main illustration of the present paper. The state-of-the-art limma approach uses a hierarchical formulation with moderated-variance estimators for each analyte directly injected into the t-statistic. While standard hypothesis testing strategies are recognised for their low computational cost, allowing for quick extraction of the most differential among thousands of elements, they generally overlook key aspects such as handling missing values, inter-element correlations, and uncertainty quantification. The present paper proposes a fully Bayesian framework for differential analysis, leveraging a conjugate hierarchical formulation for both the mean and the variance. Inference is performed by computing the posterior distribution of compared experimental conditions and sampling from the distribution of differences. This approach provides well-calibrated uncertainty quantification at a similar computational cost as hypothesis testing by leveraging closed-form equations. Furthermore, a natural extension enables multivariate differential analysis that accounts for possible inter-element correlations. We also demonstrate that, in this Bayesian treatment, missing at random data should generally be ignored in univariate settings, and further derive a tailored approximation that handles multiple imputation for the multivariate setting. We argue that probabilistic statements in terms of effect size and associated uncertainty are better suited to practical decision-making. Therefore, we finally propose simple and intuitive inference criteria, such as the overlap coefficient, which express group similarity as a probability rather than traditional, and often misleading, p-values. The performance of this approach is evaluated through an extensive empirical study using both synthetic and controlled real-world proteomics datasets. Overall, we believe that this Bayesian framework for (multivariate) differential analysis provides a valuable and intuitive counterpart to standard methods at a comparable computational cost.

Bayes Theorem↗

PubMed2026

Minimally invasive versus open abdominoperineal resection and the risk of postoperative perineal hernia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of minimally invasive surgery on the risk of postoperative perineal hernia after abdominoperineal resection (APR) or extralevator abdominoperineal excision (ELAPE) remains uncertain. This study compares perineal hernia rates and perioperative outcomes between minimally invasive and open approaches. METHODS: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library were searched through June 2026. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and mean differences (MDs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random-effects models. A Bayesian meta-analysis was additionally performed for the primary outcome. RESULTS: Four comparative observational studies involving 763 patients were included; 249 underwent minimally invasive APR/ELAPE, and 514 underwent open APR/ELAPE. Postoperative perineal hernia was significantly more frequent following minimally invasive surgery (OR 4.13; 95% CI 2.24-7.61; p < 0.001). Intraoperative blood loss was significantly lower in the minimally invasive group (MD - 156.5 mL; 95% CI - 298.4 to - 14.5; p = 0.03), as was operative time (MD - 41.7 min; 95% CI - 60.8 to - 22.5; p < 0.01). No significant differences were observed in hospital stay (MD - 2.5 days; 95% CI - 5.4 to 0.4; p = 0.09) or 30-day readmission rates (OR 1.41; 95% CI 0.82-2.42; p = 0.209). Bayesian analysis yielded a posterior mean OR of 4.04 (95% CrI 1.96-8.36), corresponding to a 99.9% posterior probability that minimally invasive surgery increases the risk of postoperative perineal hernia. CONCLUSION: Minimally invasive APR/ELAPE was associated with an increased risk of postoperative perineal hernia compared with the open approach. Strategies to reduce this complication while preserving the benefits of minimally invasive surgery warrant further investigation.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

Identification of a PRDM1-regulated T cell network to regulate atherosclerotic plaque inflammation.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation is a key driver of atherosclerosis, yet the mechanisms sustaining inflammation in human plaques remain poorly understood. This study uses a network-based approach to identify immune gene programs involved in the transition from low- to high-risk (rupture-prone) human atherosclerotic plaques. METHODS: Expression data from human carotid artery plaques, both stable (low-risk, n = 16) and unstable (high-risk, n = 27), were analyzed using Weighted Gene Co-expression Network Analysis (WGCNA). Bayesian network inference, operated on the eigengene values from the WGCNA, further extended the WGCNA analysis, and similarity to the signature of T cell subsets was validated in single-cell RNA sequencing data of human plaques, and a loss-of-function study in a mouse model of atherosclerosis. In silico drug repurposing was performed to identify potential therapeutic targets. RESULTS: Our analysis revealed a distinct gene module with a prominent T cell signature, particularly in unstable plaques. Key regulatory factors, RUNX3, IRF7 and in particular PRDM1, were significantly downregulated in plaque T cells from symptomatic versus asymptomatic patients, indicating a protective role. Additionally, as PRDM1 is downstream of IRF7, we opted for PRDM1 as a key target. T cell-specific Prdm1 deficiency in Western-type diet fed Ldlr knockout mice featured accelerated plaque progression. Finally, as PRDM1 targeting drugs are not yet available, we performed in silico drug repurposing, identifying EGFR inhibitors as promising therapeutic candidates. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights a PRDM1-regulated T cell network that distinguishes high-risk from low-risk plaques and demonstrates the regulatory role of T cell PRDM1 in controlling atherosclerosis, positioning this pathway as a promising therapeutic target.

Plaque, Atherosclerotic↗

PubMed1992

Meta-analysis for 2 x 2 tables: a Bayesian approach.

This paper develops and implements a fully Bayesian approach to meta-analysis, in which uncertainty about effects in distinct but comparable studies is represented by an exchangeable prior distribution. Specifically, hierarchical normal models are used, along with a parametrization that allows a unified approach to deal easily with both clinical trial and case-control study data. Monte Carlo methods are used to obtain posterior distributions for parameters of interest, integrating out the unknown parameters of the exchangeable prior or 'random effects' distribution. The approach is illustrated with two examples, the first involving a data set on the effect of beta-blockers after myocardial infarction, and the second based on a classic data set comprising 14 case-control studies on the effects of smoking on lung cancer. In both examples, rather different conclusions from those previously published are obtained. In particular, it is claimed that widely used methods for meta-analysis, which involve complete pooling of 'O-E' values, lead to understatement of uncertainty in the estimation of overall or typical effect size.

Adrenergic beta-Antagonists↗

PubMed2016

A probabilistic generative model for quantification of DNA modifications enables analysis of demethylation pathways.

We present a generative model, Lux, to quantify DNA methylation modifications from any combination of bisulfite sequencing approaches, including reduced, oxidative, TET-assisted, chemical-modification assisted, and methylase-assisted bisulfite sequencing data. Lux models all cytosine modifications (C, 5mC, 5hmC, 5fC, and 5caC) simultaneously together with experimental parameters, including bisulfite conversion and oxidation efficiencies, as well as various chemical labeling and protection steps. We show that Lux improves the quantification and comparison of cytosine modification levels and that Lux can process any oxidized methylcytosine sequencing data sets to quantify all cytosine modifications. Analysis of targeted data from Tet2-knockdown embryonic stem cells and T cells during development demonstrates DNA modification quantification at unprecedented detail, quantifies active demethylation pathways and reveals 5hmC localization in putative regulatory regions.

5-Methylcytosine↗

PubMed2026

Daily low-dose carboplatin or weekly carboplatin plus nab-paclitaxel for concurrent chemoradiotherapy in older patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (JCOG1914): A randomized phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Daily low-dose carboplatin with concurrent thoracic radiotherapy is the standard treatment for older patients with unresectable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC) in Japan. METHODS: This open-label phase 3 trial was conducted at 38 institutions in Japan. Patients aged ≥ 75 years with LA-NSCLC were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive daily carboplatin (30 mg/m2) or weekly carboplatin (area under the curve, 2 mg·min/mL) plus nab-paclitaxel (30 mg/m2) with thoracic radiotherapy. Durvalumab maintenance therapy was recommended after treatment completion. The primary endpoint was overall survival, which was used to assess the non-inferiority of weekly carboplatin plus nab-paclitaxel compared to daily low-dose carboplatin. RESULTS: From December 2020 to March 2024, 124 patients were enrolled (carboplatin arm, 61 and carboplatin plus nab-paclitaxel arm, 63). In the planned interim analysis, the Bayesian predictive probability indicating the non-inferiority of carboplatin plus nab-paclitaxel compared with carboplatin in the final analysis was 8.0%, leading to early study termination for futility. The median overall survival was not estimable in the carboplatin arm; the estimated value in the carboplatin plus nab-paclitaxel arm was 26.1 months (hazard ratio, 1.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.79-3.11; p = 0.200). Two treatment-related and seven non-cancer-related deaths occurred in the carboplatin plus nab-paclitaxel arm. Patients in the carboplatin arm had better quality of life than those in the carboplatin plus nab-paclitaxel arm at 6 weeks (odds ratio, 0.39; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-0.81; p = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS: Daily low-dose carboplatin with concurrent thoracic radiotherapy remains the standard treatment for older patients with unresectable LA-NSCLC in Japan.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

The genetic overlap between schizophrenia and major depression with cognitive function.

This study aimed to systematically dissect the shared genetic basis of schizophrenia (SCZ) and major depression (MD) with cognitive function. To investigate this, we integrated large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary statistics for SCZ (N = 175,799, [cases, 74,776; controls, 101,023]), MD (N = 2,622,273 [cases, 550,355; controls, 2,071,918]) and four cognitive traits (reaction time, N = 330,069; memory, N = 112,067; verbal-numerical reasoning, N = 36,035; educational attainment, N = 111,114). Linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression analysis revealed that SCZ showed significant negative genetic correlations with reaction time, memory, and verbal-numerical reasoning. MD showed negative genetic correlations with memory, verbal-numerical reasoning, and educational attainment. Bayesian colocalization analysis identified seven genomic regions with strong or supportive evidence between SCZ and cognitive function, and two genomic regions with supportive evidence between MD and cognitive function. Gene mapping and over representation analysis (ORA) indicated that SCZ-associated genes were primarily involved in pathways related to transport processes, and MD-associated genes were significantly enriched in pathways related to neural development. Through genetic correlation and colocalization analysis, this study elucidates the genetic overlap between SCZ and MD with cognitive function, providing a new perspective for related research.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2024

Fine-mapping the CYP2A6 regional association with nicotine metabolism among African American smokers.

The nicotine metabolite ratio (NMR; 3'hydroxycotinine/cotinine) is a stable biomarker for CYP2A6 enzyme activity and nicotine clearance, with demonstrated clinical utility in personalizing smoking cessation treatment. Common genetic variation in the CYP2A6 region is strongly associated with NMR in smokers. Here, we investigated this regional association in more detail. We evaluated the association of CYP2A6 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and * alleles with NMR among African American smokers (N = 953) from two clinical trials of smoking cessation. Stepwise conditional analysis and Bayesian fine-mapping were undertaken. Putative causal variants were incorporated into an existing African ancestry-specific genetic risk score (GRS) for NMR, and the performance of the updated GRS was evaluated in both African American (n = 953) and European ancestry smokers (n = 933) from these clinical trials. Five independent associations with NMR in the CYP2A6 region were identified using stepwise conditional analysis, including the deletion variant CYP2A6*4 (beta = -0.90, p = 1.55 × 10-11). Six putative causal variants were identified using Bayesian fine-mapping (posterior probability, PP = 0.67), with the top causal configuration including CYP2A6*4, rs116670633, CYP2A6*9, rs28399451, rs8192720, and rs10853742 (PP = 0.09). Incorporating these putative causal variants into an existing ancestry-specific GRS resulted in comparable prediction of NMR within African American smokers, and improved trans-ancestry portability of the GRS to European smokers. Our findings suggest that both * alleles and SNPs underlie the association of the CYP2A6 region with NMR among African American smokers, identify a shortlist of variants that may causally influence nicotine clearance, and suggest that portability of GRSs across populations can be improved through inclusion of putative causal variants.

Adult↗

PubMed2025

Global emergence and transmission dynamics of carbapenemase-producing Citrobacter freundii sequence type 22 high-risk international clone: a retrospective, genomic, epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Carbapenemase-producing Citrobacter (CPC) species have recently been recognised as emerging pathogens associated with nosocomial infections in humans. The increased rate of Citrobacter freundii infections is a public health concern and there is a paucity of genomic data regarding its global transmission dynamics. We aimed to characterise the genetic features of CPC species, and their associated carbapenemase-encoding plasmids, obtained from hospitalised patients in China and from publicly available global data, with a particular focus on high-risk clones. METHODS: This was a retrospective, genomic epidemiological study of CPC species obtained from a tertiary hospital in Zhejiang Province, China, from March 5, 2013, to March 5, 2023. We used antimicrobial susceptibility testing, short-read and long-read whole-genome sequencing, phylogenomic analysis, and plasmid structure analysis. A global dataset of complete plasmid sequences encoding blaKPC, blaNDM, and blaIMP was constructed from the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) RefSeq database to provide insights into their diversity and distribution. All carbapenemase-producing Citrobacter freundii genomes from the NCBI GenBank database were incorporated in the comparative genomic analyses. Bayesian phylogeographical analysis and growth rate assays were carried out to characterise the high-risk C freundii sequence type (ST) 22 clone. FINDINGS: 1724 Citrobacter species isolates were collected from diverse clinical specimens, with 48 identified as CPC species. Citrobacter koseri (22 [46%] of 48) and C freundii (20 [42%]) were the predominant CPC species. Comparative analysis found C freundii carried significantly higher median numbers of plasmid replicons (5·0 [IQR 3·3-6·0] vs 2·0 [2·0-3·0]; p<0·0001) and acquired antimicrobial resistance genes (12·0 [7·3-15·8] vs 3·0 [3·0-5·3]; p<0·0001) than did C koseri. Molecular characterisation identified Inc-type plasmids, In823::Kl.pn.I3/In1589-like/In837-like integrons, Tn6296/Tn125/Tn5060 transposons, and insertion sequences (eg, IS26, IS3000, IS5, ISAba125, ISCR1), collectively facilitating the dissemination of carbapenemase genes. Global analysis of 3126 carbapenemase-encoding plasmids found epidemic plasmids with broad host ranges and global diversity. Phylogenetic investigation of predominant carbapenemase-encoding plasmids showed their persistence across geographical regions, temporal spans, and Enterobacterales species, exhibiting high genetic similarity to our clinical plasmids. A phylogenetic tree of 726 global carbapenemase-producing C freundii genomes showed that ST22 (227 [31·3%]) represents the predominant multidrug-resistant clone across community, health-care, and environmental niches. Transmission across continents contributes to the global predominance of the ST22 clone, which carries a high load of resistance genes (median 15·0 [IQR 11·0-17·0] vs 12·0 [3·0-16·0]; p<0·0001) and enhanced plasmid maintenance capacity (median replicons 5·0 [IQR 4·0-7·0] vs 4·0 [3·0-6·0]; p<0·0001) relative to non-ST22 clones. INTERPRETATION: Our study provides evidence to suggest that Citrobacter species are emerging carriers of carbapenem-resistance genes. These findings provide insight into the population structure of CPC species and highlight C freundii ST22 as a prominent high-risk international clone. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Health Commission Scientific Research Fund-Zhejiang Provincial Major Health Science and Technology Plan Project, Zhejiang Province Natural Science Foundation Project, Outstanding Youth Foundation of Jiangsu Province of China, the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions, and Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province.

Citrobacter freundii↗

PubMed2024

Genetic investigation of population structure in Atlantic chub mackerel, Scomber colias Gmelin, 1789 along the West African coast.

Sustainable management of transboundary fish stocks hinges on accurate delineation of population structure. Genetic analysis offers a powerful tool to identify potential subpopulations within a seemingly homogenous stock, facilitating the development of effective, coordinated management strategies across international borders. Along the West African coast, the Atlantic chub mackerel (Scomber colias) is a commercially important and ecologically significant species, yet little is known about its genetic population structure and connectivity. Currently, the stock is managed as a single unit in West African waters despite new research suggesting morphological and adaptive differences. Here, eight microsatellite loci were genotyped on 1,169 individuals distributed across 33 sampling sites from Morocco (27.39°N) to Namibia (22.21°S). Bayesian clustering analysis depicts one homogeneous population across the studied area with null overall differentiation (F ST = 0.0001ns), which suggests panmixia and aligns with the migratory potential of this species. This finding has significant implications for the effective conservation and management of S. colias within a wide scope of its distribution across West African waters from the South of Morocco to the North-Centre of Namibia and underscores the need for increased regional cooperation in fisheries management and conservation.

Animals↗

PubMed2024

Expansion of Oropouche virus in non-endemic Brazilian regions: analysis of genomic characterisation and ecological drivers.

BACKGROUND: Oropouche virus (OROV) is an arbovirus endemic in the Amazon region that closely resembles other arboviruses in terms of human disease, leading to potential misdiagnoses. The virus ecology has mostly restricted its occurrence to the Amazon biome; however, after a large 2023-24 OROV epidemic in the Brazilian Amazon region, outbreaks are being reported across Brazil and in other countries in Latin America. Here, we investigate the OROV spread outside Amazonia. METHODS: In this genomic and epidemiological study, OROV cases from January, 2023, to July, 2024, provided by the General Coordination of Public Health Laboratories of Brazil on Aug 1, 2024, were compared by geographical location (Amazon vs non-Amazon) and municipal population size, and a linear mixed model was employed to assess the relationship between agricultural area size and cases. OROV-positive samples from central laboratories of five non-Amazonian Brazilian states were sequenced using an amplicon-based approach. Bayesian phylogeographical analysis was performed with near full-length viral genomes, incorporating individual travel histories when relevant. The estimated dates of viral introductions in each sampled location were then contextualised with public epidemiological data. FINDINGS: Epidemic data show that outside the Amazon region, OROV cases frequency was 3·9-times higher in small municipalities than in large municipalities. The planted areas of some agricultural products, such as banana plantations, were positively correlated (r=0·39, p<0·0001) with OROV cases. The linear mixed model revealed that, besides banana, cassava also has larger (p<0·05) planted areas in municipalities with OROV cases when compared with those with no cases. The phylogenetic analysis of 32 new OROV genomes reconstructed multiple exportation events of the newly identified reassortant lineage from the Amazon to other Brazilian regions between January and March, 2024. At least three of the previously described OROV phylogenetic clades circulating in the Amazon were the source of viral introductions. Molecular clock analysis estimated that viral introductions happened from 50 days to 100 days before detecting the outbreaks in each state. INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm that the novel OROV reassortant lineage spread from the Amazon to other regions in early 2024, successfully establishing local transmission. The fact that outbreaks were observed in small municipalities, instead of large urban centres, suggests that local ecological conditions that are ideal for OROV vector occurrence, such as the banana plantation environment, might be important factors driving its spread in Brazil. FUNDING: DECIT, CNPq, FAPEAM, and Inova-Fiocruz. TRANSLATION: For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Brazil↗

PubMed2026

Building phenotypic character matrices for phylogenetic inference: exploration of 35 years of practice.

Recent methodological development in phylogenetic inference has focused predominantly on molecular data. However, renewed interest in other data types, particularly morphological data, has followed from the increased recognition of the power of total evidence and tip-dating approaches, including fossil data, for inference of time-scaled trees and rates of evolution. However, attention has largely focused on the improvement of models of morphological evolution and other analytical tools with much less discussion about data acquisition itself. Here we review past and current practice for describing and collecting morphological data for phylogenetic inference. We present a systematic review of 164 phylogenetic analyses conducted over the last 35 years and focused on a diverse group of extinct arthropods: trilobites. Trends in increasing matrix size, data type, and coding strategy are evident. Where present, polymorphic characters have been predominantly derived from discretized continuous characters, although increasingly practitioners are utilizing alternative approaches for the treatment of quantitative characters. Not surprisingly, traditional indices that describe character consistency are highly correlated with matrix size but show surprising variation at different taxonomic scales. More recent attempts to describe data quality using information theory imply that characters can have high information content even if data are missing for many tips, providing support against the exclusion of characters because of missing data. In consideration of this, as well as advances in the study of developmental biology and variational complexity, we identify several avenues for increasing the quality and quantity of morphological data going forward.

Phylogeny↗

PubMed2026

Cell-type-specific genetic associations in Lewy body dementia identified using single-cell eQTL-based Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Lewy body dementia (LBD) is a complex neurodegenerative disorder marked by α-synuclein aggregation and dual impairment of cognitive and motor function.While genome-wide association studies have identified risk loci, the cellular mechanisms linking genetic variation to disease susceptibility remain largely unexplored. METHODS: We performed single-cell transcriptome-wide Mendelian randomization using brain cell-type-specific eQTLs across eight major cell types. Genetic associations were evaluated using inverse-variance weighted models, followed by Bayesian colocalization analysis. Replication was performed in independent stratified LBD cohorts based on APOE ε4 carrier status. Phenome-wide association analysis was included as a supplementary, descriptive assessment of cross-trait associations. RESULTS: Expression of ANKRD65 in excitatory neurons was significantly associated with reduced LBD risk (odds ratio = 0.65, 95 % CI: 0.52-0.81, p = 0.00013). This association passed a false discovery rate of 0.1 and showed strong evidence of colocalization (posterior probability = 0.93). Effect direction was consistent across APOE ε4+ and ε4- LBD subgroups in independent cohorts. No genome-wide significant associations were observed with non-neurological traits in the phenome-wide analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings identify a genetically supported, cell-type-resolved association between ANKRD65 expression in excitatory neurons and LBD risk. This study demonstrates the value of integrating cell-resolved transcriptomic regulation with genetic inference to pinpoint functionally relevant targets in neurodegenerative diseases.

Humans↗

PubMed2024

Rapid spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron XDR lineage derived from recombination between XBB and BA.2.86 subvariants circulating in Brazil in late 2023.

Recombination plays a crucial role in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2. The Omicron XBB* recombinant lineages are a noteworthy example, as they have been the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant worldwide in the first half of 2023. Since November 2023, a new recombinant lineage between Omicron subvariants XBB and BA.2.86, designated XDR, has been detected mainly in Brazil. In this study, we reconstructed the spatiotemporal dynamics and estimated the absolute and relative transmissibility of the XDR lineage. The XDR lineage displayed a recombination breakpoint in the ORF1a-coding region, and the most closely related sequences to the 5' and 3' ends of the recombinant correspond to JD.1.1 and JN.1.1 lineages, respectively. The first XDR sequences were detected in November 2023 in the Northeastern Brazilian region, and their prevalence rapidly surged from <1% to 25% by February 2024. The Bayesian phylogeographic analysis supports that the XDR lineage likely emerged in the Northeastern Brazilian region around late October 2023 and rapidly disseminated within and outside Brazilian borders from mid-November onward. The median effective reproductive number of the XDR lineage in Brazil during the initial expansion phase was estimated to be around 1.5, and the average relative instantaneous reproduction numbers of XDR and JN* lineages were estimated to be 1.37 and 1.29 higher than that of co-circulating XBB* lineages. In summary, these findings support that the recombinant lineage XDR arose in the Northeastern Brazilian region in October 2023, shortly after the first detection of JN.1 sequences in the country. In Brazil, the XDR lineage exhibited a higher transmissibility level than its parental XBB.* lineages and is spreading at a rate similar to or slightly faster than the JN.1* lineages.IMPORTANCEThis study highlights the emergence and rapid dissemination of the recombinant SARS-CoV-2 XDR lineage, derived from the Omicron lineages JD.1.1 and JN.1.1. The XDR lineage exhibited equivalent transmissibility to its JN.1* parental lineages and quickly spread across Brazil in late 2023. The findings underscore the critical role of real-time genomic surveillance in detecting novel variants with higher transmission potential. By utilizing phylogenetic and epidemiological methods, this research provides important insights into the molecular dynamics of XDR, which could inform public health responses and vaccine composition updates. The study's significance lies in its ability to document the impact of recombination on viral evolution, offering valuable information to the field of virology and pandemic preparedness.

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