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PubMed2026

Osteoporosis genetic risk prediction using bone mineral density polygenic scores in Japanese: TMM CommCohort study.

Osteoporosis and fractures are major health concerns. We developed and validated a polygenic score (PGS) for quantitative ultrasound (QUS)-defined osteoporosis risk in Japanese individuals using heel QUS-derived T-scores. Genome-wide association study summary statistics from up to 10,794 participants in the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-Based Cohort identified genome-wide significant loci, including MBL2, TMEM135, and WNT16. PGS models were constructed and evaluated using independent datasets for model selection (n = 1419) and validation (n = 8711). Adding the PGS to age and sex yielded only modest improvements in discrimination, whereas PGS quintiles supported genetic risk stratification. Compared with the intermediate group, individuals in the lowest PGS quintile had higher odds of the outcome (1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07-1.40), whereas those in the highest quintile had lower odds (0.85, 95% CI: 0.74-0.98). During prospective follow-up (mean 3.5 years), a similar gradient was observed, with higher incidence rate ratios in the lowest quintile (1.42, 95% CI: 1.17-1.73) and lower incidence rate ratios in the highest quintile (0.70, 95% CI: 0.54-0.89). No statistically significant interaction between age and PGS was observed, and age-T-score regression analyses showed no differences in age-related T-score decline across genetic risk groups. However, analyses in young adults (20-44 years) and extrapolation to age 20 suggested lower bone status around peak bone mass in individuals at high genetic risk for QUS-defined osteoporosis. These findings suggest that a Japanese-specific PGS may help identify individuals at elevated genetic risk earlier in adulthood.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2025

The impact of polygenic score and socioeconomic status in predicting risk for 19 complex diseases.

Both socioeconomic circumstances and genetic predisposition shape disease risk, yet their joint contribution across diseases has not been systematically examined. We studied 19 high-burden diseases in 743,194 participants (729,928 European; 13,266 non-European ancestry) from FinnGen, the UK Biobank, and Generation Scotland. Higher educational attainment was associated with lower risk of most conditions, but with higher risk of most common cancers. These associations were largely independent of disease-specific polygenic scores (PGSs). For seven out of 19 diseases, PGSs showed stronger effects among individuals with high education. Joint inclusion of education and PGSs modestly improved prediction for 14 and 10 out of 19 diseases in FinnGen and the UK Biobank, respectively. PGS associations were consistent across ancestries, whereas education effects were less stable; results using an alternative socioeconomic measure were directionally similar but smaller. Our findings highlight the distinct and partly interacting contributions of socioeconomic and genetic factors to disease risk.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2025

Development and evaluation of a machine learning model for osteoporosis risk prediction in Korean women.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML) model for classifying osteoporosis in Korean women based on a large-scale population cohort study. This study also aimed to assess ML model performance compared with traditional osteoporosis screening tools. Furthermore, this study aimed to examine the factors influencing the risk of osteoporosis through variable importance. METHODS: Data was collected from 4199 women aged 40-69 years in the baseline survey of the Ansan and Ansung cohort of the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study. Osteoporosis was set as the dependent variable to develop ML classification models. Independent variables included 122 factors related to osteoporosis risk, such as socio-demographic characteristics, anthropometric parameters, lifestyle factors, reproductive factors, nutrient intakes, diet quality indices, medical history, medication history, family history, biochemical parameters, and genetic factors. The six classification models were developed using ML techniques, including decision tree, random forest, multilayer perceptron, support vector machine, light gradient boosting machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). The six ML classification models were compared with two traditional osteoporosis screening tools, including the osteoporosis risk assessment instrument (ORAI) and the osteoporosis self-assessment tool (OST). The ML model performances were evaluated and compared using the confusion matrix and area under the curve (AUC) metrics. Variable importance was assessed using the XGBoost technique to investigate osteoporosis risk factors. RESULTS: The XGBoost model showed the highest performance out of the six ML classification models, with an accuracy of 0.705, precision of 0.664, recall of 0.830, and F1 score of 0.738. Moreover, the XGBoost model showed a higher performance on AUC than ORAI and OST. Variable importance scores were identified for 69 out of the 122 variables associated with osteoporosis risk factors. Age at menopause ranked first in variable importance. Variables of arthritis, physical activities, hypertension, education level, income level; alcohol intake, potassium intake, homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance; energy intake, vitamin C intake, gout; and dietary inflammatory index ranked in the top 20 out of the 69 variables, using the XGBoost technique. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that an XGBoost model can be utilized to classify osteoporosis in Korean women. Age at menopause is a significant factor in osteoporosis risk, followed by arthritis, physical activities, hypertension, and education level.

Humans↗

PubMed1977

Multiple risk prediction of myocardial infarction in women as compared with men.

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Blood Pressure↗

PubMed2026

Serum Copeptin Rises After Tolvaptan for Hyponatraemia, but Does Not Predict Risk of Rapid Sodium Rise: Pre-Specified Secondary Analysis of the TVFR Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Hyponatraemia is a common electrolyte disorder often driven by excess arginine vasopressin (AVP). Copeptin is a stable surrogate marker co-secreted with AVP. It is unclear whether treatment of hyponatraemia with tolvaptan, an AVP-V2 receptor antagonist, impacts copeptin. We aimed to assess the effects of tolvaptan on serum copeptin, compared to fluid restriction. DESIGN: Pre-specified secondary analysis of an open-label randomised trial comparing tolvaptan or fluid restriction for 3 days. PATIENTS: Hospitalised patients with plasma sodium (pNa) 115-130 mmol/L at a single-centre tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Australia. MEASUREMENTS: Copeptin measured at baseline and completion (Day 4, or discharge if sooner). RESULTS: Copeptin results were available in 45/54 participants, randomised to tolvaptan (n = 25) or FR (n = 20). Mean baseline copeptin was 10.4 pmol/L. pNa increased in both groups, significantly more with tolvaptan as previously reported. Copeptin remained stable after FR, but significantly increased after tolvaptan (mean adjusted difference between groups over 3 days 8.4 pmol/L, 95% CI 2.1-14.6, p = 0.01). Baseline copeptin did not predict rapid sodium rise. The rise in copeptin after tolvaptan may represent an exaggerated response to osmolality rise in these patients ('reset osmostat'), or feedback mechanisms from AVP blockade. CONCLUSION: Tolvaptan increased serum copeptin compared to fluid restriction. Further research is required to determine if there is clinical utility for measuring copeptin in hyponatraemia before it is adopted into practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12619001683123.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Rare variant effect estimation and polygenic risk prediction.

Due to their low frequency, estimating the effects of rare variants is challenging. Here we propose RareEffect, a method that first estimates gene-based or region-based heritability and then each variant effect size using an empirical Bayes approach. Our method uses a variance component model, which is popular in rare variant tests, and is designed to provide two levels of effect sizes-gene/region level and variant level-that can provide better interpretation. To adjust for the case-control imbalance in phenotypes, our approach uses a fast implementation of the Firth bias correction. We demonstrate the accuracy and computational efficiency of our method through extensive simulations and analysis of UK Biobank whole-exome sequencing data for 100 traits. Additionally, we show that the effect sizes obtained from our model can be leveraged to improve polygenic score performance, thereby outperforming recently developed methods for rare variant polygenic scoring.

Humans↗

PubMed2025

A cell-state axis underlying colonization in carcinomas with implications for metastasis risk prediction and interception.

Metastasis to the liver drives mortality in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), yet mechanisms of colonization remain unclear. Using genomic barcoding, we developed a clonal competition model under immune surveillance, isolating murine PDAC subclones with high or low liver-colonization potential. Combined transcriptome and chromatin-accessibility analyses revealed a distinct "metastatic-potential axis," separate from the normal-to-PDAC and classical-basal axes. We established "MetScore" as a biomarker of this axis. MetScore distinguishes metastases from primary PDAC tumors in patients, predicts outcomes beyond classical-basal classifications, and generalizes across carcinoma subtypes, suggesting conserved colonization mechanisms. High-MetScore PDAC cells preferentially occupy immune cell-enriched niches, suggesting they remodel the metastatic microenvironment. Functional screening identified c-Fos as a positive mediator of colonization and a candidate anti-metastatic target. Collectively, we identify a cell-state axis underpinning PDAC liver colonization, introduce MetScore as a broadly applicable biomarker, and nominate actionable targets for peri-operative therapeutic intervention.

Animals↗

PubMed2026

Bridging ancestry gaps in genomic risk prediction with tabular foundation models.

MOTIVATION: Models deployed for genomic prediction of diseases perform unevenly across populations, limiting clinical utility. Two factors drive this limitation: large imbalances in sample availability across ancestry groups and non-stationarity of genotype-phenotype effect sizes across the ancestry continuum. While tabular foundation models with in-context learning (ICL) have shown strong sample efficiency in other domains, their effectiveness for genotype-to-phenotype prediction and their robustness to ancestry-driven effect heterogeneity remain unclear. RESULTS: Using large, ancestrally diverse biobank data, we show that ICL-capable tabular foundation models reduce performance degradation in under-sampled ancestry groups compared to conventional supervised approaches. However, we find that prevailing models trained on existing synthetic tabular tasks fail when allele effect sizes vary across ancestry space. Treating genetic ancestry as a continuous variable, we introduce an instruction-tuning framework that exposes models to synthetic tasks with ancestry-dependent non-stationary effects. Instruction-tuned models achieve improved and more stable predictive performance across the genetic ancestry continuum, including for individuals distant from in-context exemplars in ancestry space. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All code for instruction-tuning models, synthetic task generation, data wrangling, and model evaluation, is publicly available at https://github.com/ai4pm/Bridging-Ancestry-Gaps-in-Genomic-Risk-Prediction-with-Tabular-Foundation-Models. The final instruction-tuned model (ICL-NS-G2P-proto) is also released in this repository. Detailed documentation is provided, including environment setup instructions and guidelines for running various parts. The instruction-tuning task datasets are available at https://zenodo.org/records/18309187.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

How advances in machine learning drive early detection and risk prediction of early-onset colorectal cancer.

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), defined as colorectal cancer diagnosed before age 50, is rising across high- and middle-income settings whilst organised screening stays anchored to older age thresholds. Blood-based liquid biopsy, combined with machine learning, is the most plausible route to early detection in this group because it does not depend on bowel preparation, endoscopy capacity, or adherence to stool-based testing. The gap is structural: incidence climbs fastest in the population below the age at which any guideline-endorsed modality is offered. The analytical challenge is that early-stage tumour-derived signals in plasma are low in abundance and distributed across heterogeneous molecular layers: circulating tumour DNA mutations, aberrant methylation, cfDNA fragmentomics, and small non-coding RNA. Machine learning converts these into a single calibrated probability. This review examines where artificial intelligence (AI)-driven liquid biopsy genuinely adds diagnostic value in EOCRC, distinguishes components in which learned models are decorative from those in which they are mechanistically necessary, and identifies the validation deficit separating research cohorts from deployable clinical tools. It summarises the first-generation tools used clinically for early detection and post-treatment monitoring, then considers analytes from exosome-bound microRNAs to long-read whole-genome sequencing of circulating plasma DNA, which reads cytosine modification natively, resolves methylation and fragmentation on single molecules, and characterises structural events short reads cannot anchor. Any analyte can feed a learned model, but more diverse input yields better discrimination. The central argument is that approved, guideline-included blood tests were validated in populations aged 45 and above, and their performance in younger patients cannot be assumed.

cfDNA fragmentomics↗

PubMed1976

Inverse relationship in Jamaica between plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration and coronary-disease risk as predicted by multiple risk-factor status.

1. The relation between plasma high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol concentration and multiple coronary-risk factor status has been assessed in fifty-two middle-aged clinically healthy men from urban and rural Jamaica. 2. Rural hill-farmers had a superior exercise performance (assessed by the responses to submaximal test exercise), less body fat, and lower fasting levels for plasma total cholesterol, low-density liproprotein (LDL) cholesterol, total triglyceride and blood glucose than urban businessmen. Mean plasma HDL cholesterol was considerably higher in farmers then businessmen. 3. Multilinear regression analysis showed HDL cholesterol concentration to be independently and inversely correlated with plasma triglyceride, LDL cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure and that these relationships applied across the urban and rural sub-groups. There was also some evidence that HDL cholesterol concentration increased with stature. When these factors were taken into account, age, ethnic group, adiposity, weight, exercise performance, smoking history and blood glucose made no further significant contribution to the prediction of HDL cholesterol concentration. 4. Thus plasma HDL cholesterol concentration was highest in those subjects with the lowest coronary-risk as predicted by their multiple risk-factor status, an observation which supported other evidence that coronary-risk is inversely related to plasma HDL concentration. 5. The results raise the possibility that coronary-risk can be more simply estimated from the plasma HDL cholesterol concentration than from a consideration of other major lipid risk factors and blood pressure.

Adult↗

PubMed2026

Predictive Models for Hypoglycemia Risk in Haemodialysis Patients With Diabetic Kidney Disease: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

AIM: To provide evidence for selecting and developing reliable clinical assessment tools for hypoglycemia in diabetic kidney disease patients during haemodialysis. DESIGN: Review. METHODS: Systematic searches were performed in 9 Chinese and English databases to collect literature regarding the development of hypoglycemia risk prediction models in haemodialysis patients with diabetic kidney disease. Two reviewers independently performed literature screening, data extraction, risk-of-bias assessment, and applicability evaluation. The Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool was used to assess the risk of bias and applicability of the included studies. Meta-analysis was conducted using R software. DATA SOURCES: CNKI, Wanfang, VIP, CBM, PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMbase, Web of Science, and CINAHL. The search period covered from the establishment date of each database to December 2025. RESULTS: Six studies, comprising six prediction models, were included. Two studies performed internal validation, and three conducted external validation. All models reported the area under the curve, ranging from 0.813 to 0.866, and calibration measures. Four studies were rated as having a high risk of bias, while all six demonstrated good overall applicability. The meta-analysis showed that the pooled AUC value of the six studies was 0.846 (95% CI: 0.823-0.867). CONCLUSION: Research on hypoglycemia risk prediction models in haemodialysis patients with diabetic kidney disease remains in the developmental stage. Although the included prediction models exhibited satisfactory apparent discriminatory ability and clinical applicability, most of the original studies suffered from a high risk of bias and lacked adequate validation. The true predictive performance and clinical application value of these models remain to be further verified. Accordingly, routine and unconditional clinical application is not recommended at this stage. Future studies should include more high-quality, multicenter external validation and develop models with high generalizability, favourable clinical applicability, and robust predictive performance to facilitate early identification of hypoglycemia risk in this population. IMPACT: This study systematically evaluated the hypoglycemia risk prediction models for diabetic kidney disease patients during haemodialysis, and the research on hypoglycemia risk prediction models for maintenance haemodialysis patients during dialysis is still in the development stage. This study provides a reference for clinical medical staff to select or develop hypoglycemia risk prediction and assessment tools for diabetic kidney disease patients during haemodialysis. REPORTING METHOD: This study was conducted in accordance with the relevant guidelines of the EQUATOR Network and followed the TRIPOD-SRMA Checklist. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: No patient or public contribution. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO: CRD420251243352.

Humans↗

PubMed2024

Blood-based DNA methylation and exposure risk scores predict PTSD with high accuracy in military and civilian cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Incorporating genomic data into risk prediction has become an increasingly popular approach for rapid identification of individuals most at risk for complex disorders such as PTSD. Our goal was to develop and validate Methylation Risk Scores (MRS) using machine learning to distinguish individuals who have PTSD from those who do not. METHODS: Elastic Net was used to develop three risk score models using a discovery dataset (n = 1226; 314 cases, 912 controls) comprised of 5 diverse cohorts with available blood-derived DNA methylation (DNAm) measured on the Illumina Epic BeadChip. The first risk score, exposure and methylation risk score (eMRS) used cumulative and childhood trauma exposure and DNAm variables; the second, methylation-only risk score (MoRS) was based solely on DNAm data; the third, methylation-only risk scores with adjusted exposure variables (MoRSAE) utilized DNAm data adjusted for the two exposure variables. The potential of these risk scores to predict future PTSD based on pre-deployment data was also assessed. External validation of risk scores was conducted in four independent cohorts. RESULTS: The eMRS model showed the highest accuracy (92%), precision (91%), recall (87%), and f1-score (89%) in classifying PTSD using 3730 features. While still highly accurate, the MoRS (accuracy = 89%) using 3728 features and MoRSAE (accuracy = 84%) using 4150 features showed a decline in classification power. eMRS significantly predicted PTSD in one of the four independent cohorts, the BEAR cohort (beta = 0.6839, p=0.006), but not in the remaining three cohorts. Pre-deployment risk scores from all models (eMRS, beta = 1.92; MoRS, beta = 1.99 and MoRSAE, beta = 1.77) displayed a significant (p < 0.001) predictive power for post-deployment PTSD. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of exposure variables adds to the predictive power of MRS. Classification-based MRS may be useful in predicting risk of future PTSD in populations with anticipated trauma exposure. As more data become available, including additional molecular, environmental, and psychosocial factors in these scores may enhance their accuracy in predicting PTSD and, relatedly, improve their performance in independent cohorts.

Humans↗

PubMed2024

Blood-based DNA methylation and exposure risk scores predict PTSD with high accuracy in military and civilian cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Incorporating genomic data into risk prediction has become an increasingly useful approach for rapid identification of individuals most at risk for complex disorders such as PTSD. Our goal was to develop and validate Methylation Risk Scores (MRS) using machine learning to distinguish individuals who have PTSD from those who do not. METHODS: Elastic Net was used to develop three risk score models using a discovery dataset (n = 1226; 314 cases, 912 controls) comprised of 5 diverse cohorts with available blood-derived DNA methylation (DNAm) measured on the Illumina Epic BeadChip. The first risk score, exposure and methylation risk score (eMRS) used cumulative and childhood trauma exposure and DNAm variables; the second, methylation-only risk score (MoRS) was based solely on DNAm data; the third, methylation-only risk scores with adjusted exposure variables (MoRSAE) utilized DNAm data adjusted for the two exposure variables. The potential of these risk scores to predict future PTSD based on pre-deployment data was also assessed. External validation of risk scores was conducted in four independent cohorts. RESULTS: The eMRS model showed the highest accuracy (92%), precision (91%), recall (87%), and f1-score (89%) in classifying PTSD using 3730 features. While still highly accurate, the MoRS (accuracy = 89%) using 3728 features and MoRSAE (accuracy = 84%) using 4150 features showed a decline in classification power. eMRS significantly predicted PTSD in one of the four independent cohorts, the BEAR cohort (beta = 0.6839, p-0.003), but not in the remaining three cohorts. Pre-deployment risk scores from all models (eMRS, beta = 1.92; MoRS, beta = 1.99 and MoRSAE, beta = 1.77) displayed a significant (p < 0.001) predictive power for post-deployment PTSD. CONCLUSION: Results, especially those from the eMRS, reinforce earlier findings that methylation and trauma are interconnected and can be leveraged to increase the correct classification of those with vs. without PTSD. Moreover, our models can potentially be a valuable tool in predicting the future risk of developing PTSD. As more data become available, including additional molecular, environmental, and psychosocial factors in these scores may enhance their accuracy in predicting the condition and, relatedly, improve their performance in independent cohorts.

DNA methylation↗

PubMed2026

The Progress of Gout Prediction Models Based on Multi-source Data.

INTRODUCTION: Gout, a highly serious inflammatory disease that is caused by monosodium urate crystals, is becoming an increasingly significant health concern. Artificial Intelligence and multi-omics-based research have made significant gains for the early detection and prevention of gout based on diverse approaches. This review intends to summarize current advances in forecasting gout susceptibility and gout-related symptoms, evaluate the predictive efficacy of different features, and ascertain which clinical and omics characteristics are most effective in these prediction models. METHODS: We explored the PubMed database after 2010 using keywords such as "gout", "predictive model", "risk prediction", and "machine learning", and confined our search to Englishlanguage articles. The original peer-reviewed research articles that developed gout models were selected. Research that was not original or lacked internal validation was excluded. RESULTS: Clinical features, genomics, microbiomics, radiomics, and metabolomics have been utilized to construct models related to gout and have demonstrated excellent predictive performance. Multisource data prediction models usually exhibit better effectiveness. DISCUSSION: Gout-oriented models performed excellently in predictive performance but present limitations in certain clinical and omics domains. However, if they are to affect actual patient care, they must overcome some external confirmation roadblocks and the fiscal and practical implications they will face ahead of time. CONCLUSION: This review indicates that clinical and multi-omics models of gout are significant instruments for clinical decision-making. The models constructed in these studies may be crucial for the treatment of gout and its practical benefits.

Gout↗

PubMed2026

Transcriptome-wide association analysis of Alzheimer's disease: construction and clinical validation of transcriptomic risk scores.

Early identification of individuals at high risk for Alzheimer's disease (AD) is crucial for disease prevention and intervention. This study aims to develop AD-specific transcriptomic risk scores (TRSs) through multi-tissue transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS) and to evaluate its clinical utility in AD diagnosis and risk prediction. Using GWAS summary statistics combined with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data from 14 tissues, a multi-tissue TWAS approach was applied to identify AD-associated genes. Peripheral blood RNA expression data from the ADNI and GEO databases were used to construct the AD-specific TRSs. The associations of TRSs with AD pathological features and cognitive function were assessed in two independent cohorts. Furthermore, the diagnostic performance, differential diagnostic capability, and risk prediction efficiency of TRSs were evaluated. The TWAS identified 131 genes significantly associated with AD. The TRSs were significantly elevated in patients with AD and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) compared to cognitively normal (CN) individuals, and showed significant correlations with AD pathological markers and cognitive performance. When combined with APOE4 status, the TRSs demonstrated robust diagnostic ability for AD and MCI. When combined with age, the TRSs showed good diagnostic performance in distinguishing AD from frontotemporal dementia (FTD) (AUC = 0.86). Additionally, the TRSs effectively predicted the risk of progression to AD in non-AD individuals (HR = 1.74). The AD-specific TRSs developed in this study shows promising clinical utility in AD diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and risk prediction, providing valuable translational medical evidence for early screening and precision prevention of Alzheimer's disease.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Improving the reliability of polygenic risk score-based prediction for cardiovascular and renal complications across ancestries in type 2 diabetes using Mondrian Cross-Conformal Prediction.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) developed in European populations often show reduced predictive performance in non-European populations, limiting their clinical utility. This lack of transferability across ancestries remains a major challenge in genomic medicine and raises concerns about health equity. We aimed to evaluate whether uncertainty-aware prediction, implemented through Mondrian Cross-Conformal Prediction, improves the performance and reliability of polygenic risk score-based predictions across ancestries for nephropathy, stroke, and myocardial infarction in individuals with type 2 diabetes in a multi-ethnic cohort. We leveraged Mondrian Cross-Conformal Prediction (MCCP), an uncertainty quantification framework, combined with logistic regression applied to a multi-polygenic risk score (multiPRS) to predict the risk of nephropathy, stroke, and myocardial infarction in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Two training frameworks were evaluated: one using 4,098 individuals with type 2 diabetes of European ancestry from the ADVANCE trial for training and 17,574 White British, 1,145 South Asian, and 749 African UK Biobank participants for testing; and another using the 17,574 White British UK Biobank participants for training and the South Asian and African participants for testing. Logistic regression provided robust baseline performance across populations. On top of this baseline, MCCP did not improve performance but added capabilities absent from probability-based stratification: for each individual, it issued a prediction together with an explicit confidence and credibility level; it allowed a tolerated error level to be set in advance and delivered prediction sets respecting it in the majority of settings; and it flagged individuals for whom no reliable prediction could be made. Applying MCCP to PRS-based prediction thus enables uncertainty-aware risk stratification and improves the reliability of risk prediction across ancestries, providing a more equitable framework for clinical use.

Female↗

PubMed2025

Breast Cancer Risk Stratification in Black Women: Current Status and Potential Solutions to Improve Accuracy.

Breast cancer risk stratification models identify individuals at increased risk, allowing earlier screening than for those at average risk and potentially improving health outcomes. Due to the increasing rates of breast cancer in individuals aged <40 years, especially among Black females, the American College of Radiology now recommends all females initiate breast cancer risk assessment by age 25 years. Several breast cancer risk prediction models are readily available, including the Gail Model, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium Risk Calculator, BOADICEA, and Tyrer-Cuzick Model. However, because these models were primarily developed using data from White women of European ancestry, they may underestimate risk in Black women. Indeed, current evidence suggests that these models underpredict breast cancer risk among Black women, particularly those of African ancestry. Although cancer risk prediction models typically incorporate personal characteristics, family history of cancer, and hormonal and lifestyle factors, inherited breast cancer genes can also increase risk for breast cancer. Beyond monogenic inherited breast cancer genes that increase breast cancer risk, emerging data suggest that single nucleotide polymorphisms identified through genome-wide association studies (GWAS) may be used to generate polygenic risk scores, which may further refine breast cancer risk. However, GWAS data are also primarily gathered from European ancestry females, further reducing the ability to accurately stratify breast cancer risk in non-European ancestry populations. Current data highlight the importance of ensuring representation from all populations in developing cancer risk prediction models, conducting genomics research, and designing effective implementation strategies to enhance the use of these models in routine clinical care. Although new analytic methods and models are being developed to improve breast cancer risk stratification across populations, it remains critical to assess the utility and calibration of existing and new models to ensure applicability across non-European ancestry populations.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Blood Metabolomic Signatures of 1-Hour Glucose Predict Cardiometabolic Risk.

BACKGROUND: Elevated 1-hour glucose levels during an oral glucose tolerance test strongly predict type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease. We investigated whether the fasting blood metabolome predicting 1-hour glucose could be a target for improving β-cell function, long-term glycemic trajectories, and reducing the risks of T2D and coronary heart disease. We also investigated whether plasma microRNAs derived from key metabolic organs regulate changes in a metabolomic risk score (MRS) for predicting 1-hour glucose. METHODS: Untargeted blood metabolomics and a frequently sampled 75-g oral glucose tolerance test were performed in participants from the OmniCarb trial (n=162). In an independent weight-loss dietary intervention trial (POUNDS Lost [Preventing Overweight Using Novel Dietary Strategies]), temporal changes in MRS and plasma microRNAs measured by genome-wide sequencing were analyzed. In addition, associations of MRS at baseline and its 10-year changes with long-term risk of incident T2D and coronary heart disease were prospectively investigated in the NHS (Nurses' Health Study). RESULTS: We created a fasting blood MRS for predicting 1-hour glucose (Pearson r=0.8) and found significant associations with half-day (diurnal) postprandial glucose excursions and insulin secretion after 5-week controlled feeding interventions varying in carbohydrate amount and glycemic index. In the POUNDS Lost trial, diet-induced changes in MRSs were related to 2-year trajectories of glucose metabolism; circulating microRNAs regulating cardiometabolic abnormalities were pivotal factors influencing these changes. In the NHS, women in the top 20% of MRS had a multivariate-adjusted relative risk of 3.80 (95% CI, 2.22-6.51) for T2D and 1.48 (95% CI, 1.04-2.12) for coronary heart disease compared with those in the lowest 20%. In addition, 10-year increases in plasma metabolites related to 1-hour glucose were linearly associated with a higher risk of T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that fasting blood metabolomic signatures predicting elevated 1-hour glucose reflect disease pathophysiology and could be targets for preventing T2D and coronary heart disease.

blood glucose↗