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PubMedDate not supplied

[An optimum population for Thailand].

"In Thailand to date, the systematic analysis to determining an appropriate size of the population using economic, social, political and cultural criteria has not been attempted, let alone conducting a research on an optimum population. What have been made to date are analyses indicating that the rate of population growth at certain [periods] tends to be too low or too high...thus leading to the policy to increase or reduce the rate of population growth. Difficulties in determining an optimum population [are] due to the dynamic nature of population development and the fact that all other factors affecting the welfare of population are always changing, [thus] it is not cost effective to conduct research for determining an optimum population for the purpose of policy formulation." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Asia↗
PubMed1972

A study of optimum population levels--a progress report.

The purpose of this study is to explore different approaches and to develop a methodology that will allow a calculation of "optimum levels of population." The discussion is specialized to the United States, but the methodology should be broad enough to handle other countries, including less-developed countries. The study is based on economics, but with major inputs from the areas of technology, natural resources management, environmental effects, and demography. The general approach will be to develop an index for quality of life (IQL or Q-index) and to maximize this index as a function of level and distribution of population. The technique consists of a reshuffling of national income accounts so as to be able to go from the Gross National Product (GNP) to the index for quality of life, plus a careful discussion of what is and what is not to be included. The initial part of the study consists of a projection of the index for quality of life as population level increases and as population distribution changes, under the assumption of various technologies, particularly as these relate to the consumption of minerals, energy, and other natural resources. One would expect that as economic growth continues, an increasing fraction of expenditures would be for the diseconomics produced by population growth and economic growth. This study should be useful by providing a rational base for governmental policies regarding population, both in the United States and abroad. Another application of the study is to technology assessment, by measurement of the impact on economic well-being through the introduction of new technologies. Therefore, one can gauge the necessary and desirable investments in certain new technologies. In general, mathematical models resulting from this study can become useful diagnostic tools to analyze the consequences of various public and private policy decisions.

Demography↗
PubMed1988

The dependency ratio and optimum population growth. The total utility case.

"This paper examines the effects of introducing a variable dependency ratio in Dasgupta's (1969) model. We consider a case in which the probability of dying as well as the rate of participation in the labor force change with age. It is shown that the inclusion of those realistic demographic features slows down the optimal rate of population growth and increases the rate of consumption. In spite of the reduction in the rate of population growth, this rate can still be positive. The sensitivity of the solutions to changes in the demographic parameters of the model is examined."

Demography↗
PubMedDate not supplied

An optimum world population.

The optimum population of the world is the one that is most likely to make the option of a good quality of life available to everyone everywhere, both now and in the future. Establishing a consensus about the size of such a population would be an important step towards achieving it. Estimates of an optimum involve three main steps. First, estimate the maximum (carrying capacity) assuming a specified lifestyle. The main criteria are the maintenance of biodiversity, the availability of freshwater, and the availability of land--for agriculture, forestry and artificial systems but above all for the conversion of energy. (In applying the criteria, there are always two questions to ask: 'What is the maximum amount of consumption that the biosphere can stand?' and 'What is an adequate share of such consumption per person?') Second, convert the maximum (two to three billion) into an optimum by applying a far wider range of criteria, including personal liberty, mobility, recreation and political representation. Third, consider just two criteria (economies of scale and technological innovation) in order to ensure that the optimum (one to two billion) has not fallen below the minimum (half to one billion). The estimates are so low because of the need for a huge increase in median per capita consumption if everyone is to have the option of an adequate material standard of living. Opinion-formers are likely not to take much notice of such estimates, but it is probable that minds will be concentrated by an energy shock some time during the next decade. Achieving an optimum world population will not solve the world's major problems, but it would make them solvable.

Conservation of Natural Resources↗
PubMed1986

Social criteria for evaluating population change: an alternative to the Blackorby-Donaldson criterion.

"An ethical objection is raised against the Blackorby-Donaldson criterion of optimum population maximizing the sum total of utilities in excess of some critical level, since it may disprefer a social state with more people and with more worthwhile lives. However, the criterion may serve as a practicably reasonable compromise between maximizing total and average utility. Nevertheless, an alternative compromise (the maximization of number-dampened total utility) is proposed that is free from the above objection."

Behavior↗
PubMed1994

Myanmar drafts population policy.

The Government of the Union of Myanmar has drafted a population policy and will strive to achieve the goal of optimum population in the future, according to the Minister for Health, H.E. Vice-Admiral Than Nyunt, who made the statement on the occasion of World Population Day (11 July). The Minister said that, although population growth was not a problem, a birth-spacing project was being implemented with a view to promoting the health standard of mothers and children. There are now 20 townships where the project is being implemented with support from the UN Population Fund; the number would grow to 72 townships within the next three years, the Minister said. According to the 1994 ESCAP Population Data Sheet, the population of Myanmar is estimated to be about 45 million.

Asia↗
PubMed1985

On the optimum theoretical rate of population growth.

"The paper seeks intuitively-satisfying models of optimum population growth. The authors build upon Phelps's model of endogenous technical progress plus the Steinmann-Simon extension, which imply that the per-person consumption growth rate depends positively and linearly upon the population growth rate, without bound.... They suggest that the consumption rate ultimately turns downwards as population growth increases because of decreasing adoption of available technology as labor cheapens relative to capital, and as high population growth overtaxes people's will and ability to respond. Including a convex-downward function in the model yields sensible results." (summary in GER)

Demography↗