PubMed Health⌕ Search

SEARCH · PubMed Health

Results for “disease forecasting”

Explore indexed PubMed citations for clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health research. Read source abstracts and follow each citation to its original PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
PubMed2026

Pathogen local adaptation shapes Pierce's disease of grapevines outcomes under field conditions.

Climate change is broadly expected to increase the range of many plant diseases, yet the current status of local thermal adaptation in many pathogens is poorly understood. Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) is a global bacterial plant pathogen that causes Pierce's disease (PD) of grapevines and infects over 700 other host plant species, impacting both agricultural and natural ecosystems. In a common garden experiment with 477 vines in the field, we compared PD outcomes from a local (colder climate in CA) vs non-local (warmer climate in CA) bacterial strain in 13 Mediterranean grapevine varieties over 3 years. Relative to the local strain, there was 77% lower overwinter survival in the non-local strain from a warmer climate, strongly indicating local adaptation in these CA Xf populations. Host genotype also had a significant effect on pathogen winter survival, and grapevine varieties differed in PD susceptibility. Additionally, we assessed in planta evolution of the two pathogen strains over 3 years by whole-genome sequencing 58 field-derived isolates. There were convergent loss-of-function mutations in genes encoding minor Type IV pilin (T4P) proteins, which control twitching motility and other virulence phenotypes, suggesting rapid adaptive evolution. Our results suggest local adaptation to cold temperatures in a bacterial plant pathogen and a possible role for minor Type IV pilins in thermal adaptation. These findings demonstrate the urgent need to incorporate X. fastidiosa evolution and local thermal adaptation into global models of PD spread. Differentiating pathotypes with distinct thermal adaptations will improve disease forecasting and inform quarantine decisions.IMPORTANCEForecasting the movement of plant pathogens is a critical issue under global warming to effectively manage future plant disease outbreaks. Yet, current plant pathogen local thermal adaptation is often unaccounted for, especially in bacterial pathogens. Our study examines local adaptation to temperature in a bacterial plant pathogen, Xylella fastidiosa, that causes disease in grapevines in addition to infecting 700 other plant species. In a large-scale field experiment across 13 grapevine varieties, we demonstrate local adaptation in pathogen winter survival in distinct Xylella fastidiosa strains. Additionally, we found evidence of adaptive evolution in just 3 years, as we observed convergent mutations after resequencing strains that evolved in the field. Our results suggest that X. fastidiosa populations-even within a small geographic area-have distinct adaptations to winter temperatures and may exhibit differential responses to warming winters.

Type IV pili↗
PubMed2026

Multimodal Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Early Detection and Forecasting of Plant Diseases.

Plant diseases destroy 20-40% of global food production annually, posing a critical threat to food security for a projected population of 9.7 billion by 2050. Conventional diagnostic approaches relying on expert visual assessment are slow, costly, and unsuitable for modern agricultural scales. While deep convolutional neural networks demonstrated early promise, single-modality, image-centric systems consistently fail under real-world field conditions characterized by variable lighting, co-occurring infections, and cultivar diversity. This review synthesizes a decade of progress across four interconnected frontiers: the evolution of deep learning architectures for plant disease detection; the adaptation of foundation models including CLIP, SAM, and DINOv2 to agricultural contexts; the development of multimodal fusion frameworks integrating imagery, environmental, genomic, and hyperspectral data; and the transition from static disease diagnosis to descriptive comparison of reported metrics, which suggested that multimodal approaches frequently reported improved diagnostic performance relative to corresponding single-modality baselines, although direct cross-study comparison was limited by methodological heterogeneity. A systematic review following PRISMA guidelines identifies eligible comparative studies. Descriptive comparison of reported performance metrics across these studies indicated that multimodal approaches generally achieved higher accuracy and sensitivity than single-modality models, particularly for pre-symptomatic disease detection. Eight critical research gaps are identified, including the absence of a unified agricultural foundation model and limited climate-aware forecasting under non-stationary climate projections. A structured research agenda is proposed to accelerate translation from laboratory performance to globally equitable, field-deployable crop protection systems.

convolutional neural networks↗
PubMed1977

[A simple procedure to forecast the course of diseases (author's transl)].

A procedure is presented which enables the physician to forecast the course a disease will take by looking through a list of items with attached numbers, i.e. weights, and simply adding the weights of those items which hold true for a specific patient. The application of this procedure to three different diseases, namely schizophrenia, facial paresis, and aphasia is presented and proves its accuracy. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo Analysis of the procedure underlying this method--multiple linear regression of dichotomous items--leads to recommendations concerning the optimum definitions of items and the structuring of data. The procedure is compared with other methods used in computer diagnosis and its main advantage, apart from its high reliability, i.e. independence of computers in its application, is stressed. Its application to other diseases is encouraged and the presentation of data for processing by this Department is invited.

Aphasia↗
PubMed1992

Immunosuppressive treatment of Graves' ophthalmopathy.

Glucocorticoids and retrobulbar irradiation are the most employed immunosuppressive treatment modalities in Graves' ophthalmopathy. The response rate is approximately 60%. Efficacy is good for improvement of appearance and visual acuity, moderate for correction of extraocular muscle dysfunction, and poor for reduction of proptosis. Immunosuppression seldom cures the eye disease. Its main advantage is to stabilize the eye disease by inactivating the inflammation of orbital tissues, thereby permitting corrective eye surgery to be performed at an earlier time. Future developments in immunosuppression aim at reduction of side effects and enhancement of efficacy. Alternative treatment schedules (e.g., methylprednisolone pulses, intravenous immunoglobulin) may have equal efficacy but less side effects than classic high-dose oral steroids. Efficacy can be improved by restriction of immunosuppression to patients with active eye disease who are more likely to respond. Disease activity might well be the main determinant of therapeutic outcome of immunosuppression in Graves' ophthalmopathy.

Cyclosporine↗
PubMed1977

The future of cardiac surgery in Australia. A prediction from a 15 year experience.

Statistics are presented which demonstrate that the load of congenital heart surgery in Australia is between 900 and 1,000 cases per year. For valvular heart surgery the load is also approximatley 1,000 cases per year. About 800 to 900 operations are undertaken annually to institute cardiac pacing. The number of operations for coronary artery disease has increased in an explosive manner from less than 100 cases in 1970 to more than 1,000 cases in 1975. The implications of this marked increase in operation for coronary artery disease is of paramount importance for future planning in cardiac surgery.

Adult↗
PubMed1991

Major histocompatibility complex binding peptides: a target for therapeutic development.

Peptides that bind with high affinity to major histocompatibility complex molecules could represent useful tools in treating class II-associated autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, type 1 diabetes and multiple sclerosis. Although the concept has been validated in experiments with both purified receptor systems in vitro and cellular systems in vivo, many challenging problems need to be resolved before efficacious therapeutic agents are obtained.

Autoimmune Diseases↗
PubMed1992

Perceived future of laparoscopic general surgery.

The rapid and widespread acceptance of laparoscopic cholecystectomy is without precedent in modern surgical history. Within a few years laparoscopic surgery has all but replaced traditional open laparotomy in the management of routine gallbladder disease. Recent reports of laparoscopically performed common-bile-duct exploration, appendectomy, truncal and selective vagotomy, Nissen fundoplication, colonic resection and other innovative procedures support the concept that, by the end of the decade, laparoscopic surgery will become one of the most common techniques used by general surgeons.

Acute Disease↗
PubMed1979

Forecasting progress in preventive dentistry.

Technological forecasting is a new discipline with research methodologies of its own. One of the methods is the delphi-experiment. Predictive experiments have been conducted in both medicine and pharmacology, but not yet in the field of dentistry and dental research. The first round of the present dental delphi-experiment was conducted in 1975 with the participation of an international panel consisting of 91 experts. The experts were requested to respond to six questions related to dental caries and six questions related to periodontal disease. Numerous forecasts concerning future developments or breakthroughs were given by the international panel. This report discusses the preliminary findings.

Dental Caries↗
PubMed1992

Interleukin 6: presence and future.

This review article deals with the basic biological characteristics of the multifunctional cytokine interleukin-6 (IL-6) in man. Three central issues will be addressed more closely: the pathophysiological role of unbalanced IL-6 production in various disease states, the diagnostic usefulness of measurements of IL-6 in biological fluids, and the possible role of IL-6, IL-6 antagonists, and IL-6 derivatives as therapeutic tools in clinical medicine.

Disease↗
PubMed1975

Radionuclides and the patient with coronary artery disease.

The emergence in the past 20 years of nuclear medicine as a distinct diagnostic discipline has been a major clinical advance. The relatively rapid evolution from the small laboratory limited primarily to the study of thyroid disease to the large unit in which radioactive tracers (radionuclides) are utilized to evaluate structure and function of most organ systems has been accelerated by major advances in instrumentation, new radioactive tracers and application of computer techniques. Application of these radionuclide techniques to the study of coronary artery disease has been quite recent, and has in part been limited by the need for a coordinated effort between the cardiologist and the specialist in nuclear medicine. However, realization of the potential usefulness of these techniques has fostered an increasingly productive liaison between the two specialties. The potential advantages of these radionuclides in evaluating patients with cardiovascular disease is twofold: first, they may permit the noninvasive or atraumatic acquisition of data that might otherwise be obtained only at the time of cardiac catheterization; second, and perhaps more important, they may permit the acquisition of physiologic measurements or observations not attainable by more conventional modes of study. Functionally, these techniques can be divided into those that evaluate cardiac performance and those that evaluate coronary blood flow, regional myocardial perfusion and myocardial viability.

Cesium↗
PubMed1992

The use and value of qualitative methods in health research in developing countries.

Qualitative and quantitative research methods for public health were integrated in the past. Work at the Polela Health Center and the Institute of Family and Community Health (South Africa) in the 1940's epitomized how true integration was possible. Since the 1950's the growth of disciplines and boundaries between them; the growing emphasis by funding agencies on quantitative research that yields results rapidly at low cost and the dominance of the medical profession in public health together resulted in a separation of approaches. Recently, recognition of the need for integrated approaches has reemerged but the capacity to conduct appropriate research in developing countries is weak and they have relied on importing both researchers and their methods. Examples are given (mainly using focus group methods) of how innovative integrated approaches in developing countries have been used to implement community diagnoses, understand factors affecting health service utilization and identify factors amenable to intervention. It is concluded that while qualitative methods are needed (and used) in developing countries, their use will only increase if appropriate training initiatives in developing countries are undertaken.

Cross-Cultural Comparison↗