On the evolution of the physiological model.

Abstract

Most of us who have concerned ourselves with models can perceive outlines like those above to catalog the future evolution of the expository function of models. In the context of a single class of computerized mathematical models of respiratory physiology, we can observe at once the burgeoning interest among scientists, and the similarities between model activity and the general organization of scientific information for use. Although physiological models have become quite advanced in their subject control, there is relatively little coordinated activity in the mechanization of the purposes and philosophical potential of automata. The outlines, however, are visible. An assiduous pursuit of the notion of "explanation" by machine is a major evolutionary step next to occur. It appears to us that various diagrams similar to Figures 5 or 6 can be created and investigated in terms of their relation to the human mind and in terms of formalizing rules for traversing from one plane to the next. The evolution of models will require program-making programs which can decide when and how to aggregate for deductive inference, and how far to penetrate top-down for explanation. The rules for identifying "second order" effects must be established. The decision to ignore or use these rules will be crucial. These are the means whereby the systems are traversed from plane to plane. In a word, models need to synthesize the means to ignore, "forget," and gloss over; only then will we have useful tools for taking informed action in physiology, diagnosis in medicine, or the writing of "scholarly" reviews.