PubMed · 145556
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M Kunze. 1977. [A preventive programm for smokers: programm 20 X 20 (author's transl)].. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/145556/
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Cox's proportional hazards model can be extended to accommodate time-dependent effects of prognostic factors. We briefly review these extensions along with their varying degrees of freedom. Spending more degrees of freedom with conventional procedures (a priori defined interactions with simple functions of time, restricted natural splines, piecewise estimation for partitions of the time axis) allows the fitting of almost any shape of time dependence but at an increased risk of over-fit. This results in increased width of confidence intervals of time-dependent hazard ratios and in reduced power to confirm any time-dependent effect or even any effect of a prognostic factor. By means of comparative empirical studies the consequences of over-fitting time-dependent effects have been explored. We conclude that fractional polynomials, and similarly penalized likelihood approaches, today are the methods of choice, avoiding over-fit by parsimonious use of degrees of freedom but also permitting flexible modelling if time dependence of a usually a priori unknown shape is present in a data set. The paradigm of a parsimonious analysis of time-dependent effects is exemplified by means of a gastric cancer study.
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BACKGROUND: The study of suicide notes has a long tradition. It is important to integrate this study into psychological autopsy and to make contact with the bereaved. For the first time, we present an Austrian-German study and its themes. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A consecutive series of suicides, investigated at the Department for Forensic Medicine in Vienna from Mai 2002 until April 2005, was examined for the presence of suicide notes. Suicide notes and demographic variables were integrated in an Access databank. RESULTS: A total of 29% of the those committing suicide left notes, however, the bereaved of only about a quarter allowed these to be studied. The major part was hand written, addressed to the general public or family, and shorter than 150 words. Frequent themes were specific instructions, emotions, themes regarding the environment such as the family, occupation and leisure time, and themes regarding stations of life and illness.