[Prospective analysis of demographic situation as a basic element for health system resources development].

Abstract

As in many Western industrialized nations, Georgians' fertility rate has fallen over the course of the 20th century from a relatively high level to a low one. In 1920, the average Georgian woman was expected to give birth to about 7,5 children in her lifetime; in 2003, that number had fallen to 1,4. This demographic transition is characteristic for industrial and industrializing nations and is usually associated with greater numbers of women joining the work force and increased divorce and cohabitation, all of which tend to reduce family size and drive down fertility rates. Similar patterns have emerged in the United States and other Western countries. This historic population decline has been met with increasing concern in some Georgian strata. The Georgian mass media have overflowed with alarming articles on population issues. Based on popular, nonprofessional interpretations of available vital statistics, some are calling "to save Georgia from depopulation." As a result, the general public has been misled about population issues. The average citizen is likely to draw a direct connection between the current economic slump and a demographic crisis.